Category: Commodities & Markets News

Commodities and financial market news from external sources.

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 16, 2017

The euro has continued to drift upward, with EUR-USD logging a nine-day high at 1.0987 just ahead of the London interbank open and EUR-JPY clocking a fresh one-year peak just shy of the 125.00 level. A combo of a risk-on backdrop and a sizable reduction in existential political risks in the Eurozone, post French election,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 15, 2017

The dollar was mostly higher in N.Y. trade on Monday, rising against the yen, pound and CAD, while losing modest ground to the euro. A soft Empire State index dented the greenback early on, though a better than forecast NAHB housing market index later helped the USD recover. EUR-USD opened near 1.0965 before rallying to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Commodity Prices Jump

OVERVIEW Chinese data pointed to a slowdown in growth last month as factory output, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment all slowed down more than expected. New Zealand retail sales grew at a much faster than expected pace in the first quarter, rising 1.5%. The Empire State survey showed activity unexpectedly shrank for the first time… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 15, 2017

The dollar traded mostly softer, though gained versus the yen, as the Japanese currency underperformed. Risk appetite was given a shot in the arm by a strong oil price rally, though the mood flatted somewhat after both the Germany’s DAX and the UK’s FTSE clocked new record highs. North Korean successfully launched a mid-range missile,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 15, 2017

The dollar saw an opening bout of weakness, which saw EUR-USD nudge higher and USD-JPY nudge lower, before a subsequent bout of EUR-JPY demand helped lift the latter pairing out its lows. EUR-JPY has rallied into the London interbank open, with the cross showing a 0.3% gain on the day and making a two-session peak… Read more »

US Equity and Economic Review: Housing Has Healed

     The housing crisis – or, more specifically, the huge increase in mortgage financing that provided the bubble’s fuel — caused the recession.  Reckless lending habits allowed consumers to take at excessive levels of debt, which increased housing demand and drove up housing prices to unsustainable levels.  Like all speculative bubbles, this one burst, leading… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: Rates Are Moving Higher

     There is no doubt that the Federal Reserve is in the process of raising rates.  The only question now is “when” and “how much.”  The latest “dot plot” from the latest Federal Reserve provides some general projections: Source: XE news feed US Bond Market Week in Review: Rates Are Moving Higher

Weekly Indicators: steady as she goes edition

April data included positive nominal and real retail sales, a surge in producer inflation, but mild consumer inflation. The University of Michigan’s initial May consumer confidence reading was generally unchanged.   Source: XE news feed Weekly Indicators: steady as she goes edition

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 12, 2017

The dollar fell broadly in N.Y. on Friday, with weaker U.S. retail sales and cooler core PPI weighing. EUR-USD opened at session lows of 1.0870, before making its way to 1.0934 highs into the London close. USD-JPY dropped from 113.90 to a four-day low of 113.20. USD-CAD followed the generally weaker dollar lower, basing at… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Falls as Soft Data Continues

OVERVIEW Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, grew 0.6% in the January-March period after remaining at 0.4% in the final three months of 2016. US retail sales and consumer price inflation both came in below market forecasts. Bank of Japan board member, Yutaka Harada, said the central bank must be “very careful” about exiting from its ultra-loose monetary… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 12, 2017

The dollar has steadied after four straight up days, with the narrow USD index having settled around the 99.50 mark so far today after clocking a three-week high at 99.68 yesterday. EUR-USD re-established itself above 1.0850 after logging an 18-day low at 1.0839 yesterday. USD-JPY remained heavy, though remained above the 113.46 low posted yesterday…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 12, 2017

The dollar has steadied after four straight up days, with the narrow USD index having settled around the 99.50 mark so far today after clocking a three-week high at 99.68 yesterday. The main U.S. indicies on Wall Street posted their biggest declines in three weeks yesterday, which appears to have taken some of the shine… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 11, 2017

The dollar perked up early in the N.Y. session on Thursday, reacting to hotter U.S. PPI figures, and a lower than forecast jobless claims outcome. USD gains were short-lived however, as risk-taking conditions deteriorated. Wall Street opened lower, with the market spooked by concerns the U.S. Russia investigation could derail progress on Trump’s economic agenda…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: NZ Dollar Slides After Central Bank Meeting

OVERVIEW The Bank of England left rates on hold at 0.25% as expected, with Kristen Forbes continuing to vote for a 0.25% increase. UK industrial and manufacturing production for March is disappointing, falling 0.5% and 0.6% respectively from February. The UK trade deficit pointed to weaker growth as it widened to £13.44bn and exports rose… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 11, 2017

EUR-USD settled above the two-week low logged late yesterday at 1.0853, which was the culmination of four straight sessions of declines. USD-JPY remained well bid after seeing a near two-month high at 114.37 late yesterday, with a bullish session across Asia stock markets keeping the yen on the offer. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses have… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 11, 2017

The dollar has remained broadly underpinned, with the narrow USD index clocking a three-week high. USD-JPY saw a new two-month high at 114.37 late yesterday and has since remained well bid, with a bullish session across Asia stock markets kept the yen on the offer. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses have been consolidating just off… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 10, 2017

FX trade was relatively light in N.Y. on Wednesday, leaving most major dollar pairings inside of narrow trading bands. USD-JPY found buyers after a softer 10-year Treasury auction, which saw U.S. yields rise. The pairing topped at 114.37, a new two-month high. EUR-USD was range bound over 1.0850, though USD-CAD was pushed into lows of… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Dollar Slips After FBI Director Firing

OVERVIEW Markets are recovering from an initial sell-off following news that FBI chief James Comey was fired. U.S. import prices rose 0.5% in April, beating expectations fora fifth straight monthly increase. Mario Draghi said the Eurozone economy is strengthening but that stimulus is still required. The meeting minutes of Sweden’s Riksbank reflected that members felt… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 10, 2017

EUR-USD has declined for a fourth straight session, this time logging a 12-day low at 1.0863. The euro has also traded softer against the yen and sterling, among other currencies, while the narrow USD index recovered from Asia-session weakness to log a fresh 19-day high. Markets have factored in Macron’s win at the French presidential… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 10, 2017

The dollar has traded modestly lower so far today, which some market narratives link with Trump’s firing of FBI Director Comey. USD-JPY settled back under 114.00 after clocking a two-month peak at 114.33 yesterday. The high caps an impressive winning streak, with the pair having climbed in every session bar three over the last three… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 09, 2017

The dollar firmed up in N.Y. trade on Tuesday, taking its cue from higher Treasury yields. There was little in the way of market moving U.S. data, though decent risk taking levels provided the greenback some support. EUR-USD topped at 1.0906 at mid-morning before slipping to an eight-session low of 1.0867 into the close. USD-JPY… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Fall of Australian Dollar Continues

OVERVIEW Markets are higher across Europe today as optimism over global growth drove investors towards equities and away from government bonds. German industrial output also pointed to robust economic activity as it rose 1.4% in the first quarter. The British Retail Consortium reported the strongest year-on-year growth in six years in April. Canadian building permits… Read more »

Senior Loan Officer Survey shows slight loosening, validating forecast of Chicago Fed indexes

Several weeks ago when I introduced coverage of the Chicago Fed’s Financial Conditions Indexes, ( http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2017/04/a-high-frequency-indicator-for-credi… ) I noted that they appeared to be a very good and much more timely proxy for the quarterly Senior Loan Officer Survey.  Here is the graph I used then: Source: XE news feed Senior Loan Officer Survey shows… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 09, 2017

The dollar traded broadly firmer. The narrow USD index was showing a 0.3% gain as of the early European PM session, trading at three-session highs. EUR-USD ebbed to a new post-French election correction low, at 1.0892, while the euro fared better against other currencies, foraying into seven-month high terrain above 1.0900 versus the Swiss franc,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 09, 2017

The dollar has been trading firmly so far today. USD-JPY edged out a fresh two-month peak at 113.39, with the pairing now racking up a fairly impressive winning streak, climbing in every session bar three over the last three weeks, lifting out of the six-month low that was posted at 108.12 in mid April. … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 08, 2017

The dollar firmed up in N.Y. trade on Monday, seeing EUR-USD pull back to 1.0924 lows, after topping at 1.1015 in early Asian dealings after the Macron win. Sell-the-news was in effect through to the London close. USD-JPY topped 113.05, a new six-week high, on improved risk appetite. USD-CAD rallied to 1.3733, as WTI crude… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Macron Victory a Major Focus

OVERVIEW Euro makes short-lived gains on the Macron victory in the French presidential election. The Sterling is set to have a run at the key 1.3000 resistance level against the US Dollar. The US Dollar is at 2017 lows against the Pound and Euro as risk appetite returns seeing the Dollar sold.    Source:… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 08, 2017

The euro retreated after seeing only a brief rally in the opening phases of trading in Asia Pacific following the well-anticipated victory of Macron in the runoff presidential election in France on Sunday. EUR-USD logged a peak of 1.1023, the first time the pairing has traded above the 1.10 level since last November, before an… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 08, 2017

The euro saw only a brief rally in the opening phases of trading in Asia Pacific following the well-anticipated victory of Macron in the runoff presidential election in France on Sunday. EUR-USD logged a peak of 1.1023, the first time the pairing has traded above the 1.10 level since last November. The pair has subsequently… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: Australia Remains Solid

     The French election is still the most important international economic story.  Macron is projected to win, but a now all too familiar last minute document hack occurring right before the final media blackout threw a potential wild card into the equation.  The EU potentially hangs in the balance: Le Pen has promised a… Read more »

US Equity and Economic Week in Review: 1Q Earnings Are Looking Good

     For the first times in recent memory, personal spending data is slightly concerning.  In the latest BEA report, personal consumption expenditures were flat for the second consecutive month and rose .3% in 2009 dollars:  Source: XE news feed US Equity and Economic Week in Review: 1Q Earnings Are Looking Good

US Bond Market Week in Review: Are Weaker Auto Sales Forecasting a Slower 2Q GDP and Employment Number?

     To no one’s surprise, on Wednesday the Federal Reserve maintained their current interest rate policy.  In the statement’s opening paragraph, they observe that the employment situation is strong and inflation is near their 2% target.  They also argue that, “… the slowing in growth during the first quarter as likely to be transitory and… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: negatives all but disappear edition

April data started out with a very positive employment report. Auto sales were neutral. ISM measures of both manufacturing and services were quite positive, although less so than March.    Source: XE news feed Weekly Indicators: negatives all but disappear edition

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 05, 2017

A solid April U.S. jobs report left the dollar mostly lower in N.Y. trade on Friday. Despite the data upping the odds for a June Fed rate hike, EUR-USD rallied to fresh six-month highs just shy of 1.1000. Pre-France election buying appeared to be the driver. Wall Street struggled to rally through the session, though… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: U.S. Unemployment Lowest in a Decade

OVERVIEW Markets were boosted by a strong US jobs number and oil prices have rebounded slightly from a 6-month low. BoJ governor Kuroda said he was confident inflation will accelerate “significantly” with massive monetary stimulus and fiscal support as the economy recovers. The Canadian economy created fewer jobs than expected last month, while the unemployment… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 05, 2017

The euro has corrected somewhat after logging fresh highs during the Asia session, a six-month high at 1.0990 in the case of EUR-USD, and a four-month peak at 123.67 in the case of EUR-JPY. The risk event that is the release of the U.S. April jobs report, later today, along with the natural desire for… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 05, 2017

The dollar has been trading mixed as today’s release of the April U.S. jobs report looms, falling against the yen and euro while gaining versus commodity currencies. Risk appetite has soured with oil prices dropping below $45 (for the firs time since last November) and with China taking efforts to de-bubble its property market (with… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 04, 2017

Mixed incoming U.S. data weighed on the dollar in N.Y. on Thursday, while the euro found strength from a poll putting Macron further ahead of LePen for the French presidency. EUR-USD rallied to near 6-month highs of 1.0979. USD-JPY meanwhile topped at a 6-week peak of 113.04, before falling into 112.40 on softer risk taking… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Fed Dismisses Weak Growth

OVERVIEW Eurozone service sector activity growth accelerated to a fresh six-year high in April.  The US trade deficit narrowed slightly in March as both imports and exports declined. The UK service sector unexpectedly saw activity growth increase last month. UK mortgage approvals fell to a six-month low in March as the housing market continues to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 04, 2017

The main event was a euro rally following the latest opinion poll out of France, with the Opinionway survey showing support for pro-EU Macron rising to 61% versus 39% for Le Pen, up from respective 60% and 40% readings in the prior survey. An upward nudge in final April Eurozone services PMI didn’t do the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 04, 2017

The dollar has been on the rise following the Fed’s statement yesterday, which noted that economic slowing in Q1 was “transitory” while affirming that it remains on track to tighten rates further. USD-JPY rallied to a six-week peak at 112.89, making today the fourth consecutive higher high on the daily chart. Favourable yield differentials have… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 03, 2017

The FX market was quiet through the morning session, with traders sidelined ahead of the FOMC announcement. The dollar initially rallied, then fell, then rallied again after the Fed, where there was no shift in policy, as expected. The statement indicated the Fed remains on track for a gradual pace of rate increases, and said… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Markets Waiting on Fed's Rate Decision

OVERVIEW Markets are quiet today as investors await the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The US non-manufacturing PMI jumped to 57.5 in April, beating expectations of 55.8. German unemployment fell by 15,000 and the unemployment rate remained at its lowest level since 1990. UK Brexit Minister David Davis dismissed reports in the Financial Times that… Read more »

Housing and cars: update for April

It’s time for a monthly update on houses, and let’s take a little look at vehicle sales as well.  If there is going to be a consumer downturn, generally the first thing that gets turns down is housing, over a year before the actual downturn, and then car sales, about 6 to 9 months before… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 03, 2017

The dollar majors have been lacking directional ambition into the Fed’s policy announcement later today, where Bloomberg calculates there is a 12.8% chance for a 25 bp rate hike. EUR-USD settled moderately lower after eking out a three-session peak at 1.0936 during a thin, holiday-affected Asia session (markets in Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 03, 2017

The dollar majors have been plying narrow ranges into the Fed’s policy announcement later today, where Bloomberg calculates there is a 12.8% chance for a 25 bp rate hike. EUR-USD eked out a three-session peak at 1.0936, and is presently settled near net unchanged on the day at 1.0921 bid. USD-JPY has settled to an… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 02, 2017

FX trade was again quiet in N.Y. on Tuesday, with narrow ranges the rule. There was little in the way of data to drive the market, and traders now will largely hunker down into the FOMC announcement on Wednesday, and the U.S. jobs report on Friday. EUR-USD idled between 1.0889 and 1.0917 through the day,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Fragile State of Debt Deal

OVERVIEW Volatility hits the Euro this week as the brakes are put on the Greek debt deal. Sterling hits a three-year high against the US Dollar after impressive manufacturing figures.  US Treasury Secretary Munchin suggests a possibility of issuing long-term bonds. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Fragile State of Debt Deal

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 02, 2017

The euro has traded generally firmer so far today, led by EUR-JPY, which is off its highs but still showing a 0.6% advance, earlier logging a seven-week peak at 122.60. The common currency also posted a five-day high versus sterling, and a four-month peak in the case against the Swiss franc. As for EUR-USD, the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 02, 2017

USD-JPY has lifted for a second consecutive day, this time logging a new six-month peak at 112.10. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses are also up quite sharply, reflecting general underperformance of the Japanese currency. EUR-JPY clocked a seven-week high at 122.46. The reflects rising global investor risk appetite, which has been weighting on the safe… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 01, 2017

The dollar was largely directionless through the N.Y. session on Monday, with conditions on the thin side due to May Day holidays in Europe and the U.K. EUR-USD traded between 1.0902 and 1.0923, while USD-JPY based at 111.43 before heading up to one-month highs of 111.93 as Wall Street perked up. USD-CAD was mired inside… Read more »

US Equity and Economic Review: Don't Worry About the Weak 1Q GDP Number Just Yet

     On Friday, the BEA released the advanced report of 1Q GDP, which was a disappointing .7%.  However, this continues this expansion’s trend of weak 1Q numbers.  Since 2010, the average Q/Q GDP growth rate has been 1% while the median rate is 1.3%.  Several Federal Reserve governors and presidents have discussed this seasonality problem… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: Japan and the EU Hold Rates Steady

     This week’s big news was the French election, which will now move to a run-off between Marie Le Pen and Francis Macron on May 7.  Global equity markets rallied immediately after the election, believing that Macron was more or less guaranteed a win. Source: XE news feed International Economic Week in Review: Japan… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: credit conditions debut positive edition

In the rear view mirror, Q1 GDP came in low but positive. The long leading indicator components of real private residential spending and proprietors’ incomes were both positive. On the other hand, employment costs for Q1, while strong nominally, were neutral or even negative after taking inflation into account.   Source: XE news feed … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 28, 2017

FX trade was relatively subdued in N.Y. on Friday, leaving the dollar narrowly mixed by the close. A softer Q1 GDP revision coupled with firmer price indicators provided modest support to the greenback early on, though those gains largely reversed themselves through the morning. EUR-USD topped near 1.0935 before slipping to 1.0884 lows, while USD-JPY… Read more »

XE Marketing Analysis: Euro Rallies on Stronger Inflation

OVERVIEW US Q1 GDP growth was just 0.7% year-over-year, the weakest pace in three years. Eurozone inflation rose at a faster than expected pace in April and core CPI rose to a 3-year high. UK GDP growth came in below expectations at 0.3% quarter-over-quarter. Japanese consumer price inflation rose at an annual pace of just… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 28, 2017

The euro rallied on the flash Eurozone CPI released, which came in at 1.9% y/y in the preliminary April figure, above the 1.8% median forecast and up from 1.4% in March. EUR-USD logged a two-session high at 1.0947, coming within 3 pips of Wednesday’s six-month high, while EUR-JPY has lifted into six-week territory. Cable rallied… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 28, 2017

Narrow ranges have been prevailing among the main currency pairings so far today. EUR-USD has settled in the mid 1.08s, below the five-month high seen mid week at 1.0950. USD-JPY has steadied to a narrow range in the low 111.0s, below the four-week high set on Wednesday at 111.78 following the Trump administration’s announcement of… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 27, 2017

The dollar was mixed in N.Y. trade on Thursday, posting gains versus the euro and CAD, while losing ground to sterling and the yen. ECB chief gave no hint of tapering, as some in the markets had feared, resulting in EUR-USD’s slippage to 1.0853 lows, from a top of 1.0933. USD-JPY fell into 111.05 on… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Euro Falls After ECB Meeting

OVERVIEW The ECB’s “very accommodative” monetary policy was kept on hold as inflation continues to undershoot its target. The Bank of Japan kept monetary policy unchanged while giving its most optimistic assessment of the economy in almost a decade. Donald Trump’s top economic team unveiled plans for the biggest tax cut in US history. US… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 27, 2017

EUR-USD has been settled around 1.0900 into the ECB’s policy decision today, below yesterday’s five-month peak at 1.0950. The unveiling of Trump’s tax cut plan had little impact on this pairing, nor on global stock markets, with details about how the cuts will be paid for lacking at this time. Markets will now be looking… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 27, 2017

EUR-JPY continued as the dominant mover in forex markets today. Expectations for U.S. tax cuts and the perceived passing of political existential risk in the Eurozone have continued to feed a global stock market rally, a backdrop which is keeping the yen under pressure. A Reuters article, meanwhile, citing unnamed sources, reported that ECB members… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Trump Targets Loonie

Trump’s tough talk on trade has caused the Loonie to fall.   Lumber Fire The Loonie has come under fire in the second half of the week after President Trump imposed a new 20% tariff on Canadian softwood lumber.  Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Trump Targets Loonie

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 26, 2017

The dollar moved higher in N.Y. trade on Wednesday, ahead of the tax reform announcement, helped early on by positive U.S. tax reform talk and higher stocks. USD-JPY was choppy, though managed near one-month highs of 111.76 as Treasury Secretary Mnuchin called for 15% corporate tax rates, and a 10% tax on repatriated profits. EUR-USD… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Loonie Under Pressure

OVERVIEW Markets are quiet today with a lack of fresh stimulus. Investors await details, due today, on Trump’s major tax reforms. Australian inflation rose 0.5% in the first quarter, driving the annual pace of CPI to 2.1%. HIGHLIGHT The Canadian Dollar hit a 14-month low versus its American counterpart after the US announced tariffs on… Read more »

Money and financial long leading indicators update

The basic financial indicators of money, credit, and interest rates tend to be the longest leading indicators, as they set the basic backdrop for business and consumer borrowing in order to spend. Source: XE news feed Money and financial long leading indicators update

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 26, 2017

The yen rebounded from fresh lows as the “Macron-trade” paused. USD-JPY was back to near net unchanged at 111.16 bid as of the late London AM session, having earlier clocked a 16-day peak at 111.63. EUR-JPY ebbed to around 121.20 after earlier trading in six-week high territory near 122.00. The moves came as the global… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 26, 2017

EUR-JPY continued as the dominant mover in forex markets today. Expectations for U.S. tax cuts and the perceived passing of political existential risk in the Eurozone have continued to feed a global stock market rally, a backdrop which is keeping the yen under pressure. A Reuters article, meanwhile, citing unnamed sources, reported that ECB members… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 25, 2017

The dollar was mixed in N.Y. trade on Tuesday, leaving EUR-USD at four-plus month highs of 1.0949, and USD-JPY at two-plus week highs of 111.10. USD-CAD surged to 14-month top of 1.3626, while cable gravitated to 1.2845 highs. The euro was supported by the French election result, and reports the ECB may shift its policy… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Markets Less Worried about Le Pen Risk

OVERVIEW Markets remain positive following yesterday’s impressive gains as investors turn their attention to Trump’s tax plans. UK government borrowing came in slightly higher than forecast for March. US Commerce Secretary Willbur Ross announced import duties on Canadian softwood lumber. Expectations of UK consumer inflation over the coming year remained steady at 2.5% in April…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 25, 2017

The euro remained buoyant, led by EUR-JPY gains, as markets continued to discount that France will end up with a pro-EU president at the runoff elections on May 7. EUR-USD lifted above 1.0890, drawing back yesterday’s post-French election high at 1.0906. EUR-JPY rallied to a fresh one-month peak at 120.45, well up on yesterday’s New… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 25, 2017

The euro and other currencies settled today after the euro rally of yesterday. USD-JPY and EUR-JPY remained below the highs clocked in the initial minutes of trade yesterday. USD-JPY lifted from the mid 109s and established a narrow range in the lower 110s, holding below the two-week high of yesterday at 110.63 but well up… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 24, 2017

The dollar was mixed in N.Y. trade on Monday, posting gains versus the euro, pound and CAD, while losing ground to the yen, despite the risk-on backdrop. EUR-USD topped at 1.0873 in morning dealings, before putting in a floor at 1.0835. USD-JPY meanwhile, held the 110 handle through most of the session, before dipping to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Euro Hits a 2017 High

OVERVIEW Equity markets are significantly higher and France’s cost of borrowing has fallen sharply after the first round of France’s presidential election turned out to be in line with opinion polls. The German central bank is expecting growth to have accelerated in the first quarter as strong industrial orders, increased private consumption, and a rebound… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 24, 2017

The euro surged on news that pro-EU Macron won the biggest slice of the vote in the French presidential election on Sunday, and is now favourite to beat Le Pen by a wide margin in the runoff election on May 7. Although off the highs, EUR-USD was still showing a 1.2% gain on the day… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 24, 2017

The euro has surged on news that pro-EU Macron won the biggest slice of the vote in the French presidential election on Sunday, and is now favourite to beat Le Pen by a wide margin in the second-round runoff election on May 7. Although of the highs, EUR-USD is still showing a 1.2% gain on… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: A More Nuanced Understanding of the Declining Labor Force Participation Rate

    The Federal Reserve is subject to a dual mandate: price stability and maximum employment.  Although the unemployment rate is the most commonly reported labor market statistic, since the end of the great recession analysts have correctly observed there are several other methods of measuring the labor market’s health.  Additionally, over the last several… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: The Trend of Positive Global News Continues

     Starting in the 4Q16, survey data released by Markit saw a pronounced improvement in sentiment.  This was accompanied by the UK’s surprising post-Brexit growth, Canada’s continued exit from its shallow recession, stronger 4Q16 Chinese numbers and nuanced but noticeable improvement in numbers from Japan.  The IMF acknowledges these improving numbers in their latest global… Read more »

US Equity and Economic Review: The Trump Trade is Over

     On Thursday, the Conference Board released the latest leading and coincident economic indicators.  There are 2 reasons there are some of my favorite statistics.  First, they organize 14 economic indicators in an easy-to-understand format.  Second, they have a long history of accurately predicting the overall pace of growth.  A combined reading of the Conference… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: purchase mortgage applications turn negative edition

March data included an increase in building permits, which helped lift the Index of Leading Indicators to a strong positive reading. Starts, however, declined. Industrial production and capacity utilization were up, although the manufacturing element of production had its first decline in six months. Existing home sales were the highest in ten years.   … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 21, 2017

FX trade was quite in N.Y. on Friday, though the dollar was generally higher, leaving the DXY trading on either side of 100, its best levels since Monday. EUR-USD bottomed at 1.0686 after topping at 1.0911 early in the session. USD-JPY meanwhile, perked up to 109.32 from lows of 108.89. USD-CAD rallied on cooler CPI… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Eurozone Growth Accelerates

OVERVIEW Markets are relatively stable heading into the first round of the French presidential election with the latest polls showing a slight dip in Marine Le Pen’s popularity. UK data showed a jump in inflation due to the Pound’s fall since Brexit is putting more pressure on consumers as retail sales fell 1.8% in March…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 21, 2017

The euro has come under moderate pressure, despite forecast-beating Eurozone PMI figures in preliminary April readings, and a rise in the Eurozone current account surplus. EUR-USD has dipped to the 1.0700 area, putting in some distance from yesterday’s three-week high at 1.0737. EUR-JPY, EUR-AUD and other euro crosses are also down. The declines reflect the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 21, 2017

The dollar majors have been plying narrow ranges with the risk-off trade taking a breather but positional commitment remaining low into France’s election on Sunday. EUR-USD has settled in a narrow range just below yesterday’s three-week high at 1.0737, and USD-JPY has settled in the upper 108s. Gains above 109.00 in the case of the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 20, 2017

The dollar was mostly firmer in N.Y. trade on Thursday, leaving EUR-USD at 1.0715 lows from a peak of 1.0776. USD-JPY meanwhile perked up on risk-on conditions, topping at 109.48, up from 108.98 lows. USD-CAD tested the 1.3500 level, printing new five-week highs, while cable slipped back toward 1.2800 from 1.2847. Incoming U.S. data revealed… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Outlook for Global Growth Improving

OVERVIEW Markets are trading cautiously prior to the first round of the French presidential elections and concerns over North Korea. The Fed’s Beige Book reported modest-to-moderate growth across its 12 districts. Wages are rising but not necessarily increasing inflation. Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer said yesterday that foreign economies are in better shape to absorb… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 20, 2017

The dollar and yen traded mostly softer against other currencies. EUR-USD punched above yesterday’s high at 1.0737, with the euro logging a fresh three-week high at 1.0777, extending the run higher from last week’s one-month low at 1.0569. Cable lifted back above 1.2800, and USD-CHF decline. USD-JPY, meanwhile, edged slightly high, as did USD-CAD, which… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 20, 2017

The dollar majors have been plying narrow ranges with the risk-off trade taking a breather but positional commitment remaining low into France’s election on Sunday. EUR-USD has settled in a narrow range just below yesterday’s three-week high at 1.0737, and USD-JPY has settled in the upper 108s. Gains above 109.00 in the case of the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 19, 2017

The dollar managed modest gains against major currencies in N.Y. trade on Wednesday, though EUR-USD found buyers into the 1.0700 mark. USD-JPY meanwhile, topped at 109.18, though had difficulty holding the 109 handle in afternoon trade. Cable gave back some of Tuesday’s sharp gains, bottoming near 1.2770, while USD-CAD rallied to one-month highs as WTI… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 19, 2017

The dollar lifted versus the yen, and was near net unchanged versus the euro and sterling, among other currencies, heading into the New York interbank open. EUR-USD edged out a new three-week high at 1.0737, surpassing yesterday’s peak by a pip. USD-JPY recouped to the upper 108.0s from sub-108.50 levels. The narrow USD index managed… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 19, 2017

Dollar majors have remained relatively steady despite a discernibly risk-off backdrop. Asian stock markets followed Wall Street lower, while Japan’s 10-year JGB yield dipped below zero for the first time since last November on safe-haven demand for sovereign paper. USD-JPY remained settled in the mid 108s after making a rebound high yesterday at 109.22. A… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Pound Surges on Snap Election

OVERVIEW First quarter GDP growth for China came in above expectations at 6.9%, the fastest pace in six quarters. Concerns highlighted for the job and housing markets in the minutes from the RBA’s meeting.  US housing starts fell 6.8% to 1.21 million in March while building permits rose 3.6%. US industrial production rose as expected… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 18, 2017

The dollar index fell to near three-week lows in N.Y. on Tuesday, with risk-off conditions weighing. Geopolitical fears were exacerbated amid rumors that the U.S. was mulling a “shoot down” strategy (Guardian) on N. Korea missile tests in the event they coincide with nuclear tests. Wall Street was weaker too, hurt by those military fears,… Read more »

March housing and production: good news and bad news — relatively

If you are looking for some good news or some bad news on the state of the economy, this morning we got a little of both — on a relative basis. First, the good news, at least relatively speaking.  In the very forward looking housing report, permits tied for their second best reading since the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 18, 2017

The dollar traded mostly softer, losing most ground to the pound which rallied after UK PM May called a snap election for June 8, though the greenback gained ground versus the Australian dollar, which underperformed following the release of the RBA minutes from the early April policy meeting and after a dive in iron ore… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 18, 2017

The dollar has been trading mixed as markets return to normal following the Easter break interruptions, gaining versus the yen and Australian dollar while losing ground to the pound and holding steady against the euro. We are taking a bearish view on EUR-USD into Sunday’s election in France, given two anti-EU candidates, Le Pen and… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 17, 2017

The FX market was quiet on Monday, with liquidity lacking due to London’s extended Easter holiday. The dollar was lower against the euro and pound, while after some gyrations, ended about flat against the yen and CAD. Incoming U.S. data impacted marginally, with both the Empire State index and NAHB housing market index missing the… Read more »