Category: Financial Markets

Financial markets news from external sources.

XE Market Analysis: North America – Mar 13, 2017

The dollar posted fresh post-U.S. jobs report lows versus the euro, sterling, yen, among other currencies, before recouping some lost ground. EUR-USD, EUR-JPY and other euro crosses ebbed and were showing net losses as of the early European PM session after seeing fresh post-ECB meeting highs earlier. Selling in EUR-GBP, as speculative accounts square out… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Mar 13, 2017

The dollar remained mixed in the wake of Friday’s jobs report, which was sufficiently strong to cement market expectations for a 25 bp rage hike from the Fed this Wednesday, but missed the ADP reading of 297k, which seemed to take the wind out of the dollar’s sails. USD-JPY has also remained heavy in the… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: Growth Looks to Be Picking Up a Bit

    The OECD issued its semi-annual growth projection this week, which was essentially unchanged from its analysis 6 months ago.  While they argued that increased confidence should spur growth, increasing interest rates and higher energy prices would slow growth by a similar amount.  Once again, the OECD cautioned about the overall weak growth environment: … Read more »

US Equity and Economic Review: Everything Continues to Look Bullish

     With the exception of Friday’s employment report, this week’s economic news was light – there were only 4 releases – and secondary in nature – the subject matter was more interesting to economists than individual investors.  Productivity growth continued to be weak, which means overall GDP growth will have a difficult time advancing beyond… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: long term rates turn negative again edition

February data was highlighted by another good jobs report, including declines in both the unemployment and underemployment rates. Additionally, most of the internals were as good as the headline numbers. Wage growth for nonsupervisory workers continues to be weak, and in real terms is virtually unchanged YoY.  Other news included positive factory orders, and slight… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Mar 10, 2017

The dollar traded mixed-to-steady into the release of the U.S. February jobs report, logging fresh highs versus the yen, which continued to underperform, but posting a fresh low versus the euro before rebounding some. Against the Canadian dollar, sterling, and other currencies, the dollar remained within ranges seen yesterday.[EUR, USD] Source: XE news feed … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Mar 10, 2017

The yen continued to slip, making new lows versus the dollar and euro, among other currencies, with yesterday’s ECB shift to a more neutral footing having underlined the relatively dovish stance of the BoJ, which continues to pursue operations to cap the 10-year JGB yield at zero percent. USD-JPY extended to a seven-week high at… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Mar 09, 2017

The euro got an early boost in N.Y. trade, as EUR-USD rallied on the back of the Draghi press conference. He made a subtle attempt to move the Bank’s outlook to a more neutral stance, which resulted in higher Bund yields and a firmer euro. EUR-USD rallied to 1.0615 from 1.0552 lows, before fading again…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Unchanged Interest Rates Strengthens Euro

OVERVIEW U.S. President Trump plans to move quickly on the $1 trillion infrastructure plan. Euro stands strong as ECB leaves interest rates and the QE program unchanged. British Pound is lower as markets ignore budgets higher growth and lower public debt predictions. HIGHLIGHT The ECB was the highlight of the day, leaving interest rates and the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Mar 09, 2017

The dollar posted fresh highs versus the euro, yen, sterling, Canadian and Australian dollars, amongst other currencies, as yesterday’s strong U.S. ADP private jobs report continued to resonate, with the data imparting added upside risk to tomorrow’s release of the February payrolls report, in turn feeding market expectations for hawkish guidance from the Fed after… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Mar 09, 2017

The dollar logged fresh highs versus some currencies, including the euro, and Australian and other dollar-bloc currencies, while consolidating versus the yen and sterling, amongst others. EUR-USD logged a six-day low at 1.0525 and USD-CAD made a fresh high for the year at 1.3505. USD-JPY settled to a narrow range in the mid 114s after… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Mar 08, 2017

The dollar rallied broadly after the much stronger than forecast ADP jobs figures, which gave upside risk to Friday’s BLS employment report. A strong NFP outcome on Friday will virtually guarantee a Fed rate hike next week. The greenback later pulled back marginally, largely on profit taking dynamics. EUR-USD fell to 1.0535 lows after opening… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: U.S. Private Sector Job Growth Surges

OVERVIEW German industrial production rebounded more strongly than expected in January, rising 2.8%. China posted its first monthly trade deficit in 3 years in February, as imports surged almost 40% compared to a year previous. UK chancellor raised their forecast for growth in 2017 to 2% but reduced their forecasts slightly for 2018 and 2019. Swiss… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Mar 08, 2017

The dollar traded firmer, logging a four-session high versus the euro, a fresh seven-week peak against the still-underperforming pound, a two-month peak against the Canadian dollar while more than recouping Tokyo session losses against the yen. The USD index posted a four-session high of 101.99, just 20 pips shy of last Wednesday’s eight-week peak. The… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Mar 08, 2017

The yen remained underpinned, the dollar mixed amid a backdrop of investor caution ahead of the Friday’s U.S. jobs report and next week’s policy announcement form the Fed. EUR-USD edged out a new four-session low at 1.0558, as did EUR-JPY. USD-JPY drifted lower during the Tokyo session. The pair remained above Monday’s low at 113.55… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Mar 07, 2017

FX Land was largely in snooze mode in N.Y. on Tuesday, with narrowly traded ranges the rule. The dollar started out on a firmer footing, though the modest rally ran out of gas into the London close, and prices mostly turned sideways. EUR-USD treaded water inside a 1.0560 to 1.0588 band, while USD-JPY dipped briefly… Read more »

Short leading indicators are lit up

I’ve been noting for several months that the short leading indicators available on a weekly basis have been very positive.  In this post I want to take a more detailed look at the most prominent short leading indicators, including those reported monthly.  Most, but not all, have been very strong. Source: XE news feed … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: U.S. Dollar Supported by Higher Interest Rates

OVERVIEW German factory orders fell 7.4% in January, their steepest drop in eight years. The U.S. trade deficit jumped almost 10% in January to $48.5 billion, the largest rise since March 2012. Global dairy prices fell 6.3% in the latest auction after falling 3% in February. Brazil’s recession unexpectedly worsened at the end of last… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Mar 07, 2017

The dollar has been mixed, posting a three-session high versus the euro, which was aided by a big miss in German manufacturing orders data, gaining on the still-underperforming pound, holding steady versus the yen, and losing ground to the Australian dollar, which was bid following an upbeat statement from the RBA as it delivered an… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Mar 07, 2017

The dollar has settled along with other markets as the release of the February U.S. payrolls report on Friday and the Fed’s policy decision next Wednesday are anticipated. USD-JPY is in the upper 113s after logging a four-session low yesterday at 113.55. The 20- and 50-day moving averages, at 113.41 and 113.63, mark support levels…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Mar 06, 2017

FX trade was quiet in N.Y. on Monday, with major dollar pairings sticking inside relatively narrow trading ranged. The greenback was broadly higher however, likely on the back of nearly baked in the cake prospects for a Fed rate hike next week. EUR-USD struggled over the 1.06 mark, topping at 1.0608 before slipping back into… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Yellen Says Rate Hike Appropriate

OVERVIEW  Stock markets kicked off a down week. North Korea’s missile test and Donald Trump’s accusation monitored phone calls are weighing on investor sentiment.  Eurozone investor morale improved more than expected in March, with Sentix research group’s monthly index rising to 20.7 from 17.4. US factory orders rose 1.2% in January, slightly outpacing market forecasts… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Mar 06, 2017

The dollar and yen gained versus most other currencies, while the euro took a knock on the latest political machinations in France as the first round of the Presidential election on April 23 draws nearer. EUR-USD dipped back under 1.0600 after earlier logging a 17-day high at 1.0640. USD-JPY settled back under 114.00 as the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Mar 06, 2017

The dollar majors have started the week mixed, with USD-JPY and yen crosses trading softer, with USD-JPY retreating below 114.00 after logging a 19-day peak on Friday at 114.75, while the dollar gained modest ground versus the euro and Australian dollar, despite above-forecast retail sales data out of Australia in the case of the latter…. Read more »

Weekly Indicators: lots of neutrality edition

February data started out with a strong ISM manufaturing report, and also a positive non-manufacturing report.  The Chicago PMI was also very positive. Motor vehicle sales were stable. Consumer confidence made a new high.    Source: XE news feed Weekly Indicators: lots of neutrality edition

XE Market Analysis: Sterling Falls as UK Economy Starts to Slow

OVERVIEW Eurozone private sector business activity rose at its quickest pace in nearly six years in February, as the composite PMI rose sharply to 56.0. Retail sales fell for a third straight month in January, rising to 1.2% year-on-year despite unemployment being at its lowest level since 2009. The U.S. service sector saw activity growth… Read more »

More on real M1 and M2

I crunched a little more information about M1 and M2 after yesterday’s post. Basically both real M1 and M2 have gone sideways since early last August.  That’s what the first graph, monthly through January, normed to 100 as of last August, shows:   Source: XE news feed More on real M1 and M2

XE Market Analysis: North America – Mar 03, 2017

The dollar’s rally hit pause mode today, with USD-JPY nestling itself in the mid 114s, below yesterday’s 15-day high, while EUR-USD found a footing, aided by general euro gains after encouraging PMI data out of the Eurozone. Cable and USD-CAD were exceptions as the pound took a knock following a UK services PMI miss, while… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Mar 03, 2017

The dollar rally has come to a pause. EUR-USD has settled in the low1.05s and USD-JPY in the low 114s, below the respective nine-day low at 104.96 and a 15-day peak 114.59 of yesterday. The Aussie dollar and other dollar bloc currencies have also steadied after dropping sharply over the last day, which was concomitant… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Mar 02, 2017

The dollar rallied in N.Y. on Thursday, taking the DXY to nearly two-month highs. Another round of hawkish Fedspeak upped the odds for a March Fed rate hike, which kept the greenback buoyant overall. The economic calendar was light, though 40-plus lows for weekly jobless claims helped the USD to an extent. EUR-USD printed the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Stocks Hit Record Highs

OVERVIEW Eurozone inflation rose to 2% last month, slightly exceeding the ECB’s target. The latest weekly US jobless claims fell to a 44-year low as the labor market continues to strengthen. Canada’s economy grew at faster pace than expected in the final three months of last year, expanding at an annual pace of 2.6%. The… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Mar 02, 2017

The dollar has remained bid, extending recent gains against the yen, sterling, Canadian dollar, among other currencies today, though holding just off the highs seen versus the euro yesterday following perky inflation numbers out of the Eurozone.[EUR, USD] Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: North America – Mar 02, 2017

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Mar 02, 2017

The dollar has remained bid amid a combo of a rising Wall Street and rising Treasury yields. USD-JPY has forayed further into two-week high territory, making a peak of 114.21 so far. EUR-USD has remained heavy after logged an eight-day low at 1.0514 yesterday, though data showing the biggest rate of gain in German import… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Mar 01, 2017

The dollar added to overnight gains early in the session, which came following ramped up chances for a March Fed rate hike following the Fed’s Dudley remarks late on Tuesday. Decent incoming U.S. data helped dollar sentiment some as well, with decent income and a better manufacturing ISM outcome. Profit taking set in ahead of… Read more »

XE Market Analysis:Dollar Rallies on Rate Hike Expectations

OVERVIEW US consumer spending rose 0.2% in January, less than expected. Inflation jumped 0.4%, reducing consumer buying power. Growth in US manufacturing accelerated at the fastest pace in over two years last month while new orders also jumped.  The UK manufacturing PMI fell to 54.6 last month as growth slowed from a 2-1/2 year high…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Mar 01, 2017

The dollar rallied as odds for Fed tightening rose after NY Fed Dudley said late yesterday that the case for monetary policy tightening “has become a lot more compelling.” While Dudley’s remarks are consistent with other Fed speakers, his carry added of weight for markets as he is at the dovish end of the spectrum… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Mar 01, 2017

The dollar has rallied since late-session yesterday and into the Asian session today. The principal catalyst were remarks by NY Fed’s Dudley, who said in an interview with CNN that the case for further monetary tightening “has become a lot more compelling,” citing a “very large” rise in household and business confidence and “very buoyant”… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 28, 2017

FX trade was fairly light in N.Y. on Tuesday, as traders hunkered down ahead of the evening SOTU address from president Trump. The dollar was mostly softer through the morning session, likely as prospects for any policy details coming out of the speech were discounted. The President may still surprise with specifics, but that appeared… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Markets Await Trump Speech

OVERVIEW The Pound remains on the backfoot as Brexit realities and the possibility of another Scottish referendum raise concerns.  UK consumer confidence edged 1 point lower in February. Rising inflation has made households more cautious. Japan’s industrial output unexpectedly fell 0.8% last month, the first decline in six months, caused in part by a slowdown… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 28, 2017

The dollar has been trading mixed so far today, net steady versus the euro, sterling and dollar bloc currencies, but down versus the yen, which outperformed as markets hunkered down ahead of Trump’s State of the Union address today. Markets are wanting detail on tax, spending and regulation plans, and of particular interest to forex… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 28, 2017

The dollar has been trading mixed so far today, net steady versus the euro and dollar bloc currencies, down modestly against the yen and up moderately versus the still-underperforming pound. Markets are hunkered down ahead of Trump’s State of the Union address today, with investors looking risk appetite was mixed in Asia, with markets waiting… Read more »

So Far, Trump's Proposed Budget Is a Zero Sum Game

     The following three charts are based on date from the Congressional Budget Office.  All three show various metrics of U.S. defense spending. Source: XE news feed So Far, Trump’s Proposed Budget Is a Zero Sum Game

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 27, 2017

FX trade was relatively calm in N.Y. on Monday, with the dollar mixed, and inside of relatively narrow bands overall. EUR-USD posted six-session highs of 1.0644 before fading back under the figure, while USD-JPY briefly dipped under 1.1200 before rallying to near 112.60 on firmer yields and prospects for U.S. fiscal stimulus. USD-CAD was buoyed… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Pound Falls on Risk of Scottish Referendum

OVERVIEW U.S. durable goods orders rose 1.8% as expected last month. New orders for U.S.-made capital goods however, unexpectedly fell. Eurozone economic sentiment edged up 0.1 points as expected to 108 in February due to increased optimism in the industry and service sectors. Germany’s deputy finance minister reiterated the government’s opposition to debt relief for… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 27, 2017

The dollar has traded steady-to-mixed in early-week trade. Markets are hunkered down into Trump address before Congress tomorrow, which comes with investors wanting more detail on his tax cut intentions and regulatory reforms while harbouring some concerns about the prospects for protectionism. EUR-USD lifted modestly, to the upper 1.05s, but remained left 1.0600 and Friday’s… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 27, 2017

The yen has seen a safe haven bid in early-week trade as risk aversion reappeared in Asian markets, despite the Dow clocking another record high on Friday. The strength in the yen itself had the usual secondary impact of exacerbating the bearish mood on the Japanese stock exchange, driving an underperforming a 0.9% Nikkei 225… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: More Expansion Coming

     It’s been a difficult few years for trade deals. First came Brexit, which was a surprising rebuke to the EU, and then came Trump’s election, which was partially based on a rejection of most U.S. trade deals.  However, the negative impact of trade deals has been overblown.  Consider the following from Larry Summers: … Read more »

US Equity and Economic Review: The Fundamentals Support Current Market Valuations

     There are numerous factors that support the stock market: psychology, the overall size of the population, the national and international political environment and domestic policy, just to name a few.  But perhaps the economic fundamentals are the most important.  With the market making a series of new highs, it seems an appropriate time to… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: Yes, a Downside Does Exist

     Several Fed governors spoke this week.  President Harker wouldn’t take rate hikes off the table.  President Powell agreed.  But doves still exist.  Fed President Williams, whose comments were based on recent SF Fed research, argued low rates would be with us for some time.  Hence, there was little need to raise rates.  Fed President… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: short leading indicators surge further, but one more long leading indicator close to neutral

University of Michigan sentiment for February declined slightly, on the back of a significant decline as to expectations for the future.  January existing home sales increased to a near 10 year high.  New home sales also increased, but remained significantly below their post recession high from half a year ago. Source: XE news feed … Read more »

Aussie dollar surges to ten-month high

The Aussie dollar surged to a ten-month high yesterday, climbing above US77.4c for a period in trading, before consolidating around US77.17c. The new high extends a strong US5c rise seen since the beginning of the year, creating additional headwinds for beef exports. The post Aussie dollar surges to ten-month high appeared first on Beef Central. … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 24, 2017

The dollar rallied across the board in early morning trade, seemingly led by a sell-off in cable and EUR-USD. The former dropped to intra day lows of 1.2483, coming from 1.2565 into the open, while the latter fell from 1.0617 to 1.0566. There was no specific news linked to the move, though a one-off cable… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Japanese Yen Rises as Market Sentiment Sours

OVERVIEW Stock markets are down over one percentage point across Europe, and the Japanese Yen is higher, as investors question the ability of Donald Trump’s administration to significantly boost economic growth. Canadian inflation jumped more than expected in January, due largely to a 20% rise in gasoline prices. U.S. consumer sentiment rose back to its… Read more »

The housing market: awaiting the turn from interest rates

With new home sales reported this morning, we have a good picture of the housing market through January.  To refresh on a couple of points, the general order in which the housing market trends is:   1. interest rates turn Source: XE news feed The housing market: awaiting the turn from interest rates

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 24, 2017

The dollar lost ground to the euro and more especially the yen, which was bid amid a safe haven play in global markets, though the greenback poste gains versus some currencies, including the Australian dollar and, to a lesser extent, the pound. Data and other fresh leads were thin today. USD-JPY ebbed to a 15-day… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 24, 2017

The dollar has been in consolidation during the Asian session. USD-JPY has settled in the upper 112s, consolidating above yesterday’s two-week low at 112.55. The yen has traded weaker today after rallying on a safe-haven bid yesterday following the comments from new U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, which inspired some selling on Wall Street. Mnuchin had… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 23, 2017

The dollar pulled back during the CNBC interview with new Treasury Secretary Mnuchin ahead of the N.Y. open on Thursday. He gave few detail on taxes, and perhaps won’t for some time, with the secretary aiming at an August implementation of tax reform. He did not rule out a border tax, and revealed some concern… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Fed Minutes Point to a Rate Hike "Fairly Soon"

OVERVIEW ECB board members once again voiced support for their ultra-accommodative monetary policy, saying underlying inflation remains weak, and political uncertainty represents a downside risk to growth. The U.S. housing market strengthened further in January as existing home sales rose 3.3%, hitting a 10-year high as buyers shrugged off higher prices and mortgage rates.  … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 23, 2017

The dollar has been in consolidation mode so far today. EUR-USD posted little more than a 20 pip range in London AM trading, holding in the mid 1.05s, consolidating yesterday’s rebound gains from a low at 1.0493. The narrowing in in the Franco-German sovereign debt yield spread over the last day has helped keep the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 23, 2017

The dollar has consolidated post-FOMC minutes losses, which didn’t show any heightened risk for a March rate hike, and saw implied rates dip as some insurance for a more hawkish tone had been priced in. Risk for action next month fell to about 18% in Fed funds futures, versus about 25% to 30% last week… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 22, 2017

The dollar was mostly higher in N.Y. trade on Wednesday, though did lose ground to the euro. EUR-USD rallied on headlines that French Centrist Bayrou will bow out of the election and back Independent Macron, giving him a better chance of defeating nationalist Le Pen. The pairing bounced from near 1.0500 to highs of 1.0565… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Major FX Remains Calm for Now

OVERVIEW UK GDP growth in the fourth quarter rose at a faster pace than originally reported, rising 0.7%, the fastest pace in a year. Germany’s IFO survey showed business morale improved unexpectedly in February, with the index rising to 111.0.  Bank of Japan Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, said they are unlikely to cut interest rates further… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 22, 2017

EUR-JPY and GBP-JPY are the biggest movers on the day so far, both about a 0.8% decline on the day, as of the early European PM session. Frexit concerns are driving the move, with currency markets and the Franco-German yield spread bearing the brunt as equity markets remain pretty bid despite the potential existential threat… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 22, 2017

The dollar has been trading so far today, advancing against the euro into the London open while showing a more net indifferent profile versus other currencies. The euro has come under fresh pressure. EUR-USD has breached last Wednesday’s low at 1.0521 and logged a six-week low at 1.0519. EUR–JPY is also lower, trading at 12-day… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 21, 2017

The dollar traded inside a narrow trading range in N.Y. on Tuesday, and was mixed overall, making modest gains against the euro and CAD, while losing ground to the yen and pound. EUR-USD bottomed at 1.0525, weighed down by French polling indicating LePen continuing to gain altitude. USD-JPY idled on either side of 113.50, while… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Dollar Rises on Rate Hike Talk

OVERVIEW U.S. stock markets set fresh record highs at the open, with oil prices also higher. Eurozone flash estimate PMIs showed growth unexpectedly in the services and manufacturing sectors, accelerated to a near six-year high last month, and job creation reached its fastest in almost a decade. UK public sector borrowing figures for last month… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 21, 2017

The dollar has remained buoyant, underpinned by expectations for further Fed tightening, while the euro has fared poorly amid rising Frexit anxieties, which poses a much bigger threat than Brexit ever did. The greenback was showing a 0.6% gain versus the euro heading into the New York interbank open, and a 0.5% rise versus the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 21, 2017

The dollar is showing moderate gains ahead of the London interbank open, up by 0.3% versus the euro, 0.4% against the yen and by an average 0.3% versus the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars. In the mix is the pound, which has managed to hold its own versus the dollar, while both the dollar… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 20, 2017

The main movers in a subdued European AM session were the yen, which retreated as stock markets in Asia and Europe rebounded from recent weakness, and the pound, which bounced back some of the ground lost during last week’s underperformance. GBP-JPY was consequently showing a 0.8% gain, as of the early European PM. USD-JPY steadied… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 20, 2017

The dollar has traded mixed relative to the main currencies so far today, lifting versus the yen and consolidating Friday’s gains versus the euro and other currencies. USD-JPY has traded at moderately firmer levels today after three consecutive down sessions though to Friday last week. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses has also up after a… Read more »

US Equity and Economic Review: A Solid Week of Economic and Earnings News Move the Market Higher

     This week’s U.S. economic news was bullish.  A rise in retail sales indicates the consumer continues to spend while industrial production held its own.  Industrial production held its own. Building permits – a long-leading indicator – increased.  And while starts decreased slightly M/M, they were up strongly Y/Y.    As for the markets, solid… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: The Fed Doesn't Want to Fall Behind the Curve

     Fed presidents generally agree that the economy is at or near full employment.  In Fed chair Yellen’s semi-annual Congressional testimony this week she made the following observations about the labor market: Source: XE news feed US Bond Market Week in Review: The Fed Doesn’t Want to Fall Behind the Curve

Weekly Indicators: negative noise (?) from tax withholding edition

Monthly data for January included a big jump in the Index of Leading Indicators, fed in part by positive housing starts and permits. Both producer and consumer prices also jumped higher, which means that even though retail sales were positive, real retail sales were slightly negative. Both industrial production and capacity utilization declined, although this… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: UK Consumer Stops Buying

OVERVIEW The Pound is sharply lower across the board after UK retail sales slow rapidly in January.   The US Dollar is stable yet vulnerable after Donald Trump’s hour long press conference yesterday.  Marine Le Pen gathers momentum as latest opinion poll shows a sharp rise to 40% in round two.  HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 17, 2017

The dollar staged an ex-USD-JPY rebound, with a drop in Cable following unexpectedly weakness in UK retail sales providing a staging cue for bullish participants, of which there are a few on the basis of expected Fed tightening relative to dovish-to-neutral stances at most other central banks. Cable was showing a 0.7% decline as of… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 17, 2017

The dollar has consolidated losses, with major pairings showing less than a net 0.2% chance since the New York close yesterday as London interbank traders take to their desks. USD-JPY has settled in the mid 113s after logging a low of 113.07 in the New York PM session yesterday, which completed a near two-big figure… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 16, 2017

Position squaring again weighed on the dollar in N.Y. Trade on Thursday, leaving EUR-USD at one-week highs of 1.0679, and USD-JPY at one-week lows of 113.13. Incoming U.S. Data was decent, with jobless claims lower than forecast, and the Philly Fed index much higher than expected. Wall Street posted moderate losses, while yields edged lower…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 16, 2017

The softer dollar theme continued. EUR-USD extended to a two-week peak of 1.0641, and USD-JPY declined to a two-day low of 113.55. The dollar also posted losses versus sterling, and the dollar-bloc currencies. There have been little in the way fresh leads, with the calendars in both Asia and Europe thin.[EUR, USD] Source: XE… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 16, 2017

The dollar has remained on a back foot, marginally extending the correction from post-U.S. data highs of yesterday. USD-JPY has fallen back under 114.00, logging a low of 113.76 in Tokyo trade today. The move comes after the pair topped out at near three-week highs of 114.95 in the aftermath of yesterday’s hotter U.S. CPI… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Dollar Strengthens as Inflation Jumps

OVERVIEW Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, signaled yesterday that the central bank could raise rates at its next meeting as all meetings are “live”, leaving an optimistic note on the economy in testimony to Congress. BoJ Governor, Kuroda, said he now has plans to raise the central bank’s bond yield targets, despite global yields rising as… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Eurozone Growth Revised Down

OVERVIEW UK inflation accelerated to its fastest pace in 2 in a half years last month due to higher fuel and the fall in the pound, but was below analyst forecasts. Donald Trump’s top security adviser, Michael Flynn, resigned over alleged conversations he had with Russian diplomats prior to Trump’s inauguration. Chinese inflation picked up… Read more »

The consumer fundamentals nowcast

Ultimately I have four separate methods for monitoring the business cycle, which should give concordant signals.   Source: XE news feed The consumer fundamentals nowcast

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 14, 2017

The dollar has traded mostly softer so far today, with markets wary ahead of the Senate testimony of the dovish Fed chairwoman Yellen and following the resignation of Trump’s national security adviser. Cable was the exception, as the pound dove 0.5% to 1.2445 following below-forecast CPI data, subsequently steadying, leaving yesterday’s low 1.2440 unchallenged. USD-JPY,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 14, 2017

The dollar is trading at moderately softer levels, despite seeing a flurry of buying just ahead of the London interbank open. USD-JPY has retreated below 113.50 amid a generally firmer yen as the risk-on vibe of yesterday was replaced by a risk-off one today. The sudden resignation of Trump’s national security advisor Flynn, and a… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 13, 2017

FX trade was relatively quiet in N.Y. on Monday, and the dollar was mixed overall. A lack of data kept markets focused on equity and Treasury markets, where Wall Street printed fresh record highs, and yields moved higher. EUR-USD dipped to near one-month lows, touching 1.0593, down from early highs over 1.0635. USD-JPY attempted to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Japanese Economic Growth Remains Soft

OVERVIEW The European Commission forecasted Eurozone growth to slow slightly this year to 1.6%, but to pick up to 1.8% in 2018. U.K. consumer spending grew at one of the slowest annual rates of the past three years, according to data from Visa.  U.S. consumer sentiment slipped more than expected in early February as the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 13, 2017

A weaker yen has been the main theme so far today. EUR-USD lifted to an intraday peak of 1.0658 amid a furry of dollar selling, since retreating back under 1.0645 as the buck staged a rebound. The upward move was concomitant with a dip in USD-JPY to 113.43, which marked a 70-odd pip retreat from… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 13, 2017

Yen weakness was the main show in town in pre-London dealings in Asia. This saw USD-JPY rally briefly back above 114.00 today from the 112.86 low seen in the wake of Friday’s pressure conference after the Trump-Abe meeting, when the former said that “we will be on a level playing field soon” with exchange rates…. Read more »

JBS moves into first Certified Organic beef program

JBS Australia will begin processing its first Certified Organic cattle next month, in a move which will inevitably add competitive tension for eligible stock in the marketplace. The post JBS moves into first Certified Organic beef program appeared first on Beef Central. Source: Beef Central JBS moves into first Certified Organic beef program

US Equity and Economic Review: The Markets Make a Small Move Higher

     This week’s U.S. news consisted of released that are secondary in importance, beginning with the JOLTs report – jobs opening and labor turnover.  This release provides insight into employers’ and employees’ attitudes about the labor market.  This is a relatively new data series; we only have another set of results from the previous expansion,… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: long leading indicators turn a darker shade of gray

Monthly data for January was sparse.  Sentiment as measured by the U. of Michigan retreated slightly.  December wholesale inventories rose, but sales rose even more. The December JOLTS report was essentially flat. Source: XE news feed Weekly Indicators: long leading indicators turn a darker shade of gray

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 10, 2017

The dollar was mixed in N.Y. trade on Friday, rallying some against the euro and pound, while losing ground to the yen and CAD. EUR-USD traded a relatively narrow range, though did manage to post nearly one-month lows of 1.0608. USD-JPY meanwhile, sold off ahead of the Trump/Abe meeting in Washington, later touching lows of… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Dollar Rises on Trump's Tax Talk

OVERVIEW  Chinese trade data for January was much stronger than expected, as imports rose at the fastest pace in four years, which is an encouraging start to 2017 for the world’s largest trading nation. U.K. manufacturing production jumped 2.1% in December, and industrial output rose 1.1%, adding to robust consumer spending and service sector activity. … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 10, 2017

The dollar remained underpinned in the wake of Trump’s hint yesterday of “phenomenal” tax news, which was followed-up by an unexpected phone all between Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi, where Trump said that he would respect the “One China” policy, helping ease tensions. USD-JPY remained the lead pairing in the dollar advance, with the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 10, 2017

USD-JPY led the broader dollar rally sparked by Trump’s hint yesterday that “something” on the tax cut front in the next 2-3 weeks that would be “phenomenal,” which was followed-up by an unexpected phone all between Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi, where Trump said that he would respect the “One China” policy, helping ease… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 09, 2017

The dollar moved higher into and following stronger U.S. data, taking EUR-USD to 1.0651 lows, from near 1.0690. USD-JPY meanwhile, spiked up to 113.29 highs from near 112.35. Yields and stocks moved higher as well. The initial rally just ahead of the wholeslae data appeared to have been started by comments from president Trump, who… Read more »