Category: Financial Markets

Financial markets news from external sources.

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 04, 2017

Mixed incoming U.S. data weighed on the dollar in N.Y. on Thursday, while the euro found strength from a poll putting Macron further ahead of LePen for the French presidency. EUR-USD rallied to near 6-month highs of 1.0979. USD-JPY meanwhile topped at a 6-week peak of 113.04, before falling into 112.40 on softer risk taking… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Fed Dismisses Weak Growth

OVERVIEW Eurozone service sector activity growth accelerated to a fresh six-year high in April.  The US trade deficit narrowed slightly in March as both imports and exports declined. The UK service sector unexpectedly saw activity growth increase last month. UK mortgage approvals fell to a six-month low in March as the housing market continues to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 04, 2017

The main event was a euro rally following the latest opinion poll out of France, with the Opinionway survey showing support for pro-EU Macron rising to 61% versus 39% for Le Pen, up from respective 60% and 40% readings in the prior survey. An upward nudge in final April Eurozone services PMI didn’t do the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 04, 2017

The dollar has been on the rise following the Fed’s statement yesterday, which noted that economic slowing in Q1 was “transitory” while affirming that it remains on track to tighten rates further. USD-JPY rallied to a six-week peak at 112.89, making today the fourth consecutive higher high on the daily chart. Favourable yield differentials have… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 03, 2017

The FX market was quiet through the morning session, with traders sidelined ahead of the FOMC announcement. The dollar initially rallied, then fell, then rallied again after the Fed, where there was no shift in policy, as expected. The statement indicated the Fed remains on track for a gradual pace of rate increases, and said… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Markets Waiting on Fed's Rate Decision

OVERVIEW Markets are quiet today as investors await the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The US non-manufacturing PMI jumped to 57.5 in April, beating expectations of 55.8. German unemployment fell by 15,000 and the unemployment rate remained at its lowest level since 1990. UK Brexit Minister David Davis dismissed reports in the Financial Times that… Read more »

Housing and cars: update for April

It’s time for a monthly update on houses, and let’s take a little look at vehicle sales as well.  If there is going to be a consumer downturn, generally the first thing that gets turns down is housing, over a year before the actual downturn, and then car sales, about 6 to 9 months before… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 03, 2017

The dollar majors have been lacking directional ambition into the Fed’s policy announcement later today, where Bloomberg calculates there is a 12.8% chance for a 25 bp rate hike. EUR-USD settled moderately lower after eking out a three-session peak at 1.0936 during a thin, holiday-affected Asia session (markets in Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 03, 2017

The dollar majors have been plying narrow ranges into the Fed’s policy announcement later today, where Bloomberg calculates there is a 12.8% chance for a 25 bp rate hike. EUR-USD eked out a three-session peak at 1.0936, and is presently settled near net unchanged on the day at 1.0921 bid. USD-JPY has settled to an… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 02, 2017

FX trade was again quiet in N.Y. on Tuesday, with narrow ranges the rule. There was little in the way of data to drive the market, and traders now will largely hunker down into the FOMC announcement on Wednesday, and the U.S. jobs report on Friday. EUR-USD idled between 1.0889 and 1.0917 through the day,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Fragile State of Debt Deal

OVERVIEW Volatility hits the Euro this week as the brakes are put on the Greek debt deal. Sterling hits a three-year high against the US Dollar after impressive manufacturing figures.  US Treasury Secretary Munchin suggests a possibility of issuing long-term bonds. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Fragile State of Debt Deal

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 02, 2017

The euro has traded generally firmer so far today, led by EUR-JPY, which is off its highs but still showing a 0.6% advance, earlier logging a seven-week peak at 122.60. The common currency also posted a five-day high versus sterling, and a four-month peak in the case against the Swiss franc. As for EUR-USD, the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 02, 2017

USD-JPY has lifted for a second consecutive day, this time logging a new six-month peak at 112.10. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses are also up quite sharply, reflecting general underperformance of the Japanese currency. EUR-JPY clocked a seven-week high at 122.46. The reflects rising global investor risk appetite, which has been weighting on the safe… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 01, 2017

The dollar was largely directionless through the N.Y. session on Monday, with conditions on the thin side due to May Day holidays in Europe and the U.K. EUR-USD traded between 1.0902 and 1.0923, while USD-JPY based at 111.43 before heading up to one-month highs of 111.93 as Wall Street perked up. USD-CAD was mired inside… Read more »

US Equity and Economic Review: Don't Worry About the Weak 1Q GDP Number Just Yet

     On Friday, the BEA released the advanced report of 1Q GDP, which was a disappointing .7%.  However, this continues this expansion’s trend of weak 1Q numbers.  Since 2010, the average Q/Q GDP growth rate has been 1% while the median rate is 1.3%.  Several Federal Reserve governors and presidents have discussed this seasonality problem… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: Japan and the EU Hold Rates Steady

     This week’s big news was the French election, which will now move to a run-off between Marie Le Pen and Francis Macron on May 7.  Global equity markets rallied immediately after the election, believing that Macron was more or less guaranteed a win. Source: XE news feed International Economic Week in Review: Japan… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: credit conditions debut positive edition

In the rear view mirror, Q1 GDP came in low but positive. The long leading indicator components of real private residential spending and proprietors’ incomes were both positive. On the other hand, employment costs for Q1, while strong nominally, were neutral or even negative after taking inflation into account.   Source: XE news feed … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 28, 2017

FX trade was relatively subdued in N.Y. on Friday, leaving the dollar narrowly mixed by the close. A softer Q1 GDP revision coupled with firmer price indicators provided modest support to the greenback early on, though those gains largely reversed themselves through the morning. EUR-USD topped near 1.0935 before slipping to 1.0884 lows, while USD-JPY… Read more »

XE Marketing Analysis: Euro Rallies on Stronger Inflation

OVERVIEW US Q1 GDP growth was just 0.7% year-over-year, the weakest pace in three years. Eurozone inflation rose at a faster than expected pace in April and core CPI rose to a 3-year high. UK GDP growth came in below expectations at 0.3% quarter-over-quarter. Japanese consumer price inflation rose at an annual pace of just… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 28, 2017

The euro rallied on the flash Eurozone CPI released, which came in at 1.9% y/y in the preliminary April figure, above the 1.8% median forecast and up from 1.4% in March. EUR-USD logged a two-session high at 1.0947, coming within 3 pips of Wednesday’s six-month high, while EUR-JPY has lifted into six-week territory. Cable rallied… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 28, 2017

Narrow ranges have been prevailing among the main currency pairings so far today. EUR-USD has settled in the mid 1.08s, below the five-month high seen mid week at 1.0950. USD-JPY has steadied to a narrow range in the low 111.0s, below the four-week high set on Wednesday at 111.78 following the Trump administration’s announcement of… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 27, 2017

The dollar was mixed in N.Y. trade on Thursday, posting gains versus the euro and CAD, while losing ground to sterling and the yen. ECB chief gave no hint of tapering, as some in the markets had feared, resulting in EUR-USD’s slippage to 1.0853 lows, from a top of 1.0933. USD-JPY fell into 111.05 on… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Euro Falls After ECB Meeting

OVERVIEW The ECB’s “very accommodative” monetary policy was kept on hold as inflation continues to undershoot its target. The Bank of Japan kept monetary policy unchanged while giving its most optimistic assessment of the economy in almost a decade. Donald Trump’s top economic team unveiled plans for the biggest tax cut in US history. US… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 27, 2017

EUR-USD has been settled around 1.0900 into the ECB’s policy decision today, below yesterday’s five-month peak at 1.0950. The unveiling of Trump’s tax cut plan had little impact on this pairing, nor on global stock markets, with details about how the cuts will be paid for lacking at this time. Markets will now be looking… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 27, 2017

EUR-JPY continued as the dominant mover in forex markets today. Expectations for U.S. tax cuts and the perceived passing of political existential risk in the Eurozone have continued to feed a global stock market rally, a backdrop which is keeping the yen under pressure. A Reuters article, meanwhile, citing unnamed sources, reported that ECB members… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Trump Targets Loonie

Trump’s tough talk on trade has caused the Loonie to fall.   Lumber Fire The Loonie has come under fire in the second half of the week after President Trump imposed a new 20% tariff on Canadian softwood lumber.  Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Trump Targets Loonie

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 26, 2017

The dollar moved higher in N.Y. trade on Wednesday, ahead of the tax reform announcement, helped early on by positive U.S. tax reform talk and higher stocks. USD-JPY was choppy, though managed near one-month highs of 111.76 as Treasury Secretary Mnuchin called for 15% corporate tax rates, and a 10% tax on repatriated profits. EUR-USD… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Loonie Under Pressure

OVERVIEW Markets are quiet today with a lack of fresh stimulus. Investors await details, due today, on Trump’s major tax reforms. Australian inflation rose 0.5% in the first quarter, driving the annual pace of CPI to 2.1%. HIGHLIGHT The Canadian Dollar hit a 14-month low versus its American counterpart after the US announced tariffs on… Read more »

Money and financial long leading indicators update

The basic financial indicators of money, credit, and interest rates tend to be the longest leading indicators, as they set the basic backdrop for business and consumer borrowing in order to spend. Source: XE news feed Money and financial long leading indicators update

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 26, 2017

The yen rebounded from fresh lows as the “Macron-trade” paused. USD-JPY was back to near net unchanged at 111.16 bid as of the late London AM session, having earlier clocked a 16-day peak at 111.63. EUR-JPY ebbed to around 121.20 after earlier trading in six-week high territory near 122.00. The moves came as the global… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 26, 2017

EUR-JPY continued as the dominant mover in forex markets today. Expectations for U.S. tax cuts and the perceived passing of political existential risk in the Eurozone have continued to feed a global stock market rally, a backdrop which is keeping the yen under pressure. A Reuters article, meanwhile, citing unnamed sources, reported that ECB members… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 25, 2017

The dollar was mixed in N.Y. trade on Tuesday, leaving EUR-USD at four-plus month highs of 1.0949, and USD-JPY at two-plus week highs of 111.10. USD-CAD surged to 14-month top of 1.3626, while cable gravitated to 1.2845 highs. The euro was supported by the French election result, and reports the ECB may shift its policy… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Markets Less Worried about Le Pen Risk

OVERVIEW Markets remain positive following yesterday’s impressive gains as investors turn their attention to Trump’s tax plans. UK government borrowing came in slightly higher than forecast for March. US Commerce Secretary Willbur Ross announced import duties on Canadian softwood lumber. Expectations of UK consumer inflation over the coming year remained steady at 2.5% in April…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 25, 2017

The euro remained buoyant, led by EUR-JPY gains, as markets continued to discount that France will end up with a pro-EU president at the runoff elections on May 7. EUR-USD lifted above 1.0890, drawing back yesterday’s post-French election high at 1.0906. EUR-JPY rallied to a fresh one-month peak at 120.45, well up on yesterday’s New… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 25, 2017

The euro and other currencies settled today after the euro rally of yesterday. USD-JPY and EUR-JPY remained below the highs clocked in the initial minutes of trade yesterday. USD-JPY lifted from the mid 109s and established a narrow range in the lower 110s, holding below the two-week high of yesterday at 110.63 but well up… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 24, 2017

The dollar was mixed in N.Y. trade on Monday, posting gains versus the euro, pound and CAD, while losing ground to the yen, despite the risk-on backdrop. EUR-USD topped at 1.0873 in morning dealings, before putting in a floor at 1.0835. USD-JPY meanwhile, held the 110 handle through most of the session, before dipping to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Euro Hits a 2017 High

OVERVIEW Equity markets are significantly higher and France’s cost of borrowing has fallen sharply after the first round of France’s presidential election turned out to be in line with opinion polls. The German central bank is expecting growth to have accelerated in the first quarter as strong industrial orders, increased private consumption, and a rebound… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 24, 2017

The euro surged on news that pro-EU Macron won the biggest slice of the vote in the French presidential election on Sunday, and is now favourite to beat Le Pen by a wide margin in the runoff election on May 7. Although off the highs, EUR-USD was still showing a 1.2% gain on the day… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 24, 2017

The euro has surged on news that pro-EU Macron won the biggest slice of the vote in the French presidential election on Sunday, and is now favourite to beat Le Pen by a wide margin in the second-round runoff election on May 7. Although of the highs, EUR-USD is still showing a 1.2% gain on… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: A More Nuanced Understanding of the Declining Labor Force Participation Rate

    The Federal Reserve is subject to a dual mandate: price stability and maximum employment.  Although the unemployment rate is the most commonly reported labor market statistic, since the end of the great recession analysts have correctly observed there are several other methods of measuring the labor market’s health.  Additionally, over the last several… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: The Trend of Positive Global News Continues

     Starting in the 4Q16, survey data released by Markit saw a pronounced improvement in sentiment.  This was accompanied by the UK’s surprising post-Brexit growth, Canada’s continued exit from its shallow recession, stronger 4Q16 Chinese numbers and nuanced but noticeable improvement in numbers from Japan.  The IMF acknowledges these improving numbers in their latest global… Read more »

US Equity and Economic Review: The Trump Trade is Over

     On Thursday, the Conference Board released the latest leading and coincident economic indicators.  There are 2 reasons there are some of my favorite statistics.  First, they organize 14 economic indicators in an easy-to-understand format.  Second, they have a long history of accurately predicting the overall pace of growth.  A combined reading of the Conference… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: purchase mortgage applications turn negative edition

March data included an increase in building permits, which helped lift the Index of Leading Indicators to a strong positive reading. Starts, however, declined. Industrial production and capacity utilization were up, although the manufacturing element of production had its first decline in six months. Existing home sales were the highest in ten years.   … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 21, 2017

FX trade was quite in N.Y. on Friday, though the dollar was generally higher, leaving the DXY trading on either side of 100, its best levels since Monday. EUR-USD bottomed at 1.0686 after topping at 1.0911 early in the session. USD-JPY meanwhile, perked up to 109.32 from lows of 108.89. USD-CAD rallied on cooler CPI… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Eurozone Growth Accelerates

OVERVIEW Markets are relatively stable heading into the first round of the French presidential election with the latest polls showing a slight dip in Marine Le Pen’s popularity. UK data showed a jump in inflation due to the Pound’s fall since Brexit is putting more pressure on consumers as retail sales fell 1.8% in March…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 21, 2017

The euro has come under moderate pressure, despite forecast-beating Eurozone PMI figures in preliminary April readings, and a rise in the Eurozone current account surplus. EUR-USD has dipped to the 1.0700 area, putting in some distance from yesterday’s three-week high at 1.0737. EUR-JPY, EUR-AUD and other euro crosses are also down. The declines reflect the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 21, 2017

The dollar majors have been plying narrow ranges with the risk-off trade taking a breather but positional commitment remaining low into France’s election on Sunday. EUR-USD has settled in a narrow range just below yesterday’s three-week high at 1.0737, and USD-JPY has settled in the upper 108s. Gains above 109.00 in the case of the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 20, 2017

The dollar was mostly firmer in N.Y. trade on Thursday, leaving EUR-USD at 1.0715 lows from a peak of 1.0776. USD-JPY meanwhile perked up on risk-on conditions, topping at 109.48, up from 108.98 lows. USD-CAD tested the 1.3500 level, printing new five-week highs, while cable slipped back toward 1.2800 from 1.2847. Incoming U.S. data revealed… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Outlook for Global Growth Improving

OVERVIEW Markets are trading cautiously prior to the first round of the French presidential elections and concerns over North Korea. The Fed’s Beige Book reported modest-to-moderate growth across its 12 districts. Wages are rising but not necessarily increasing inflation. Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer said yesterday that foreign economies are in better shape to absorb… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 20, 2017

The dollar and yen traded mostly softer against other currencies. EUR-USD punched above yesterday’s high at 1.0737, with the euro logging a fresh three-week high at 1.0777, extending the run higher from last week’s one-month low at 1.0569. Cable lifted back above 1.2800, and USD-CHF decline. USD-JPY, meanwhile, edged slightly high, as did USD-CAD, which… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 20, 2017

The dollar majors have been plying narrow ranges with the risk-off trade taking a breather but positional commitment remaining low into France’s election on Sunday. EUR-USD has settled in a narrow range just below yesterday’s three-week high at 1.0737, and USD-JPY has settled in the upper 108s. Gains above 109.00 in the case of the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 19, 2017

The dollar managed modest gains against major currencies in N.Y. trade on Wednesday, though EUR-USD found buyers into the 1.0700 mark. USD-JPY meanwhile, topped at 109.18, though had difficulty holding the 109 handle in afternoon trade. Cable gave back some of Tuesday’s sharp gains, bottoming near 1.2770, while USD-CAD rallied to one-month highs as WTI… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 19, 2017

The dollar lifted versus the yen, and was near net unchanged versus the euro and sterling, among other currencies, heading into the New York interbank open. EUR-USD edged out a new three-week high at 1.0737, surpassing yesterday’s peak by a pip. USD-JPY recouped to the upper 108.0s from sub-108.50 levels. The narrow USD index managed… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 19, 2017

Dollar majors have remained relatively steady despite a discernibly risk-off backdrop. Asian stock markets followed Wall Street lower, while Japan’s 10-year JGB yield dipped below zero for the first time since last November on safe-haven demand for sovereign paper. USD-JPY remained settled in the mid 108s after making a rebound high yesterday at 109.22. A… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Pound Surges on Snap Election

OVERVIEW First quarter GDP growth for China came in above expectations at 6.9%, the fastest pace in six quarters. Concerns highlighted for the job and housing markets in the minutes from the RBA’s meeting.  US housing starts fell 6.8% to 1.21 million in March while building permits rose 3.6%. US industrial production rose as expected… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 18, 2017

The dollar index fell to near three-week lows in N.Y. on Tuesday, with risk-off conditions weighing. Geopolitical fears were exacerbated amid rumors that the U.S. was mulling a “shoot down” strategy (Guardian) on N. Korea missile tests in the event they coincide with nuclear tests. Wall Street was weaker too, hurt by those military fears,… Read more »

March housing and production: good news and bad news — relatively

If you are looking for some good news or some bad news on the state of the economy, this morning we got a little of both — on a relative basis. First, the good news, at least relatively speaking.  In the very forward looking housing report, permits tied for their second best reading since the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 18, 2017

The dollar traded mostly softer, losing most ground to the pound which rallied after UK PM May called a snap election for June 8, though the greenback gained ground versus the Australian dollar, which underperformed following the release of the RBA minutes from the early April policy meeting and after a dive in iron ore… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 18, 2017

The dollar has been trading mixed as markets return to normal following the Easter break interruptions, gaining versus the yen and Australian dollar while losing ground to the pound and holding steady against the euro. We are taking a bearish view on EUR-USD into Sunday’s election in France, given two anti-EU candidates, Le Pen and… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 17, 2017

The FX market was quiet on Monday, with liquidity lacking due to London’s extended Easter holiday. The dollar was lower against the euro and pound, while after some gyrations, ended about flat against the yen and CAD. Incoming U.S. data impacted marginally, with both the Empire State index and NAHB housing market index missing the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 17, 2017

The dollar has remained soft, led by USD-JPY, which is down for the fifth day out of the last six trading days. The pair logged a fresh four-month low at 108.12 during a thin Asian session. All the main European centres are closed today, and a number of Asia-Pacific centres were also out in observance… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: the EU, Canada and Japan are on the Mend

     Starting sometime in 4Q16, EU, Canadian and Japanese economic activity and sentiment began to increase.  For the EU and Japan, the monthly Markit manufacturing, service and composite report provided the first and strongest indications.  But other economic statistics such as unemployment and industrial production also bolstered to the impression.  As for Canada, oil’s… Read more »

US Equity and Economic Review: Is the "Trump Trade" Over?

     Trump’s election was the catalyst for a 16% stock market rally that started right after the election.  The Russell 2000 experienced the sharpest rally, rising slightly over 20% by early December.  The SPYs and QQQs rose at a slower pace.  Traders saw a near perfect political foundation for a rally: the Republicans controlled all… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: A Closer Look at the Productivity Slowdown

     Despite its importance to economics, productivity is remarkably under-covered.   It receives barely a mention in the three macro books on my shelves.  Paradoxically, one of those books (Macroeconomics by Robert Gordon) argues that productivity is one of 6 primary macro topics.  In the current environment, ask any economist worth his or her salt, and… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: the Amazon.com effect edition

Preliminary U. Michigan consumer sentiment for April was positive, almost exclusively as to the present rather than expectations for the future.   Source: XE news feed Weekly Indicators: the Amazon.com effect edition

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 14, 2017

Trade was nearly non-existent on Friday, with Europe and the U.K. closed for Good Friday, and U.S. equity and bond markets shuttered. The only thing that traded was the dollar, which moved lower following weaker than expected retail sales, and a cooler CPI outcome. USD-JPY fell into the 108.60 level, and under its 200-day moving… Read more »

Stalling gas prices to the rescue!

What a difference stalling gas prices make! Source: XE news feed Stalling gas prices to the rescue!

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 13, 2017

FX trade was subdued in N.Y. on Thursday, with the dollar mixed overall. EUR-USD was stuck inside its recent trading ranges, moving between 1.0610 and 1.0635 throughout. USD-JPY found a bid as Wall Street and yields rose, though fell from 109.40 highs to 108.97. USD-CAD reclaimed the 1.3300 handle as oil prices fell, while cable… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Dollar Recovers After Trump's Comments

OVERVIEW China’s trade surplus rose to $65.6 billion in March as exports rose at the fastest pace in two years. New home prices in Canada rose 0.4% in February from January, doubling market forecasts. The British Chambers of Commerce said manufacturers reported the fastest export growth in more than two years in early 2017. U.S…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 13, 2017

The dollar took a spill during the Asia session after the WSJ published an interview with Trump, who said that the dollar is getting “too strong.” The narrow USD index tipped to a two-week low near 100.00 as a consequence. USD-JPY hit a four-month low of 108.73, and EUR-USD lifted into one-week high terrain in… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 13, 2017

The yen logged fresh highs versus the dollar amid a continued risk-off theme. USD-JPY clocked a five-month low at 108.73 before settled around the 109.00 level. EUR-JPY and AUD-JPY managed to hold above their respective trend lows from yesterday, and lifted into the European interbank open. EUR-USD, meanwhile, consolidated a late New York rally to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 12, 2017

FX trade was relatively quiet on Wednesday in N.Y., with the dollar largely losing ground in the morning session, before perking up some following a more conciliatory tone from the Tillerson/Lavrov meeting in Moscow. Risk-sensitive USD-JPY led the move higher, taking the pairing from 109.43 lows to a high of 109.87. EUR-USD topped at 1.0621… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Japanese Yen Hits Multi-Month Highs

OVERVIEW UK unemployment remained near a 12-year low in February at just 4.7%, with the employment rate at a joint record high of 74.6%. The Bank of Canada kept rates on hold as expected but raised its growth forecast for this year to 2.6% from 2.1%. U.S. import prices fell 0.2% last month, the biggest… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 12, 2017

The yen edged out fresh highs against the dollar and other currencies before settling lower in an otherwise inactive session as markets wind down into the long Easter weekend in Europe, with some centres closing tomorrow for Maundy Thursday. EUR-USD crept higher, reflecting a broad, though moderate, bid in the euro. The pair is up… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 12, 2017

The yen has continued to rally on a general safe haven bid. USD-JPY declined for a second straight session, logging four-month lows under 109.50. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses saw a similar price action. AUD-JPY, a forex market proxy on risk appetite in global markets, has dropped particularly sharply since the U.S. strike on a… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 11, 2017

The dollar was mixed in N.Y. on Tuesday, posting marginal gains against the euro and CAD, while losing ground to sterling. USD-JPY took the biggest hit, falling to 5-month lows under 109.70 on the back of geopolitical concerns. The yen-maintained its safe-haven status, despite Japan’s geographic proximity to North Korea. EUR-USD topped at 1.0629 before… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: UK Inflation Holds Steady

OVERVIEW Eurozone industrial output fell 0.3% in February, largely due a sharp drop of energy production.  Germany’s ZEW survey of economic sentiment surged to 19.5 in April, its highest level since August 2015. The British Retail Consortium reported that retail sales fell 1% annually in March and rose just 0.1% in Q1 compared to the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 11, 2017

EUR-USD ascended above 1.0600 following the forecast-smashing German ZEW confidence reading for March, which rose to 19.5 in the future expectations component, up from 12.8 in the month prior. A 0.3% m/m decline in Eurozone production can be downplayed as reflective of weather-related gyrations in the energy sector over the first quarter. EUR-USD clocked a… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 11, 2017

The dollar is trading softer versus the yen and Australian dollar, and flat versus the euro and other currencies. The narrow USD index has ebbed back under 101.00 after yesterday logging a four-week peak at 101.22. USD-JPY has corrected bout two thirds of the run higher of the previous two sessions, settling today in the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 10, 2017

The dollar lost ground in N.Y. trade on Monday, reversing some of Friday’s gains. There was no U.S. data to provide direction, while the risk backdrop was mixed, with Wall Street moving between gains and losses. EUR-USD opened near 1.0575, later making its way to 1.0606 highs. USD-JPY faded from 111.40 to touch 110.81 lows,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: French Election Trips Up Euro

OVERVIEW The Eurozone Sentix investor sentiment index exceed market forecasts rising to 23.9, its highest level since August 2007. Fed Vice Chair Dudley said rates could still rise while reducing the central bank’s $4.5 trillion balance sheet. According to Visa, British consumer spending had the slowest annual increase in more than three years in Q1…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 10, 2017

The dollar edged out fresh highs against a range of currencies during. The narrow USD index log a one-month high of 101.22, which was the mirror of EUR-USD’s posting of a one-month low at 1.0570. A run lower in AUD-USD continued for an eighth consecutive session as the pair clocked a three-month low at 0.7476…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 10, 2017

The dollar has held up, though has tracked moderately lower into the London open after earlier carving out fresh highs against a range of currencies. The narrow USD index log a one-month high of 101.22, which was the mirror of EUR-USD’s posting of a one-month low at 1.0570. A run lower in AUD-USD continued for… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: The Global Productivity Slowdown Makes Headlines

     Christine Lagarde of the IMF gave a speech that discussed the global productivity slowdown.  She observed three main causes of this development: One is population aging in most advanced economies. Research suggests that worker skills tend to increase until a certain age and then to decline—with negative effects on innovation and productivity, although… Read more »

US Equity and Economic Review: Don't Worry About the Employment Report Just Yet

     This week, the Institute for Supply Management released their manufacturing and service sector indexes.  Both were generally positive and each contained bullish anecdotal comments.  While the service number declined a few points, it fell to a still very positive 55.2.  Production and new orders were also off a bit, but each is still high… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: A Closer Look at the 10-Year, 3-Month Spread

     It is now clear that the Federal Reserve will be increasing interest rates this year.  Therefore, it seems appropriate to look at the yield curve, specifically the 10 year-3 month spread, to determine the impact of the Fed’s actions on the curve.      Let’s start with a long-term look at the 10 year (in… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: bank lending indicators diverge sharply edition

March data started out with a miss on payrolls, but significant declines in both unemployment and underemployment. ISM manufacturing and services both decelerated but were both still very positive.  Motor vehicle sales declined significantly.  February data included an increase in factory orders and construction spending, while both wholesale sales and inventory increased. Source: XE… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 07, 2017

The dollar dropped following the much weaker than expected U.S. jobs report, though quickly recovered through the remainder of the session. The overnight U.S. missile raid on Syria brought some safe haven dollar buying to bear into the weekend, which lifted the unit across the board. EUR-USD topped at 1.0665 after the jobs data, before… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Employment Up

OVERVIEW FX Markets are relatively calm despite global activity that includes US missile attacks on Syria and a suspected terrorist attack in Sweden.  German industrial output surged 2.2% in February as demand at home and abroad increased. Germany’s trade balance swelled to €21bn, as exports rose 0.8%. UK industrial and manufacturing production both declined unexpectedly… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 07, 2017

The USD index clocked a fresh three-week high at 100.70, which largely reflected a drop in EUR-USD to the 1.0630 area that tested yesterday’s three-week low at 1.0629, though so far no exceeding it, and a decline Cable following a sub-forecast set of data out of the UK. The dollar has also scraped out highs… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 07, 2017

The yen rallied and then ebbed back to near neat unchanged levels in the wake of the U.S. strike in Syria. The dollar, meanwhile, has traded near flat against most currencies outside the case against the yen. USD-JPY retreated to a one-month low at 110.13 before recouped to near net unchanged levels above 110.50. The… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 06, 2017

FX trade was quiet in N.Y. on Thursday, as the market remained sidelined ahead of Friday’s key U.S. jobs report. Major dollar pairings were stick inside of familiar ranges, with the greenback posting marginal gains overall. Lower jobless claims had little impact, though between those and the higher ADP jobs report earlier in the week,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Czech Crown Jumps as Central Bank Ends Cap

OVERVIEW The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting revealed that most members think they should take steps to begin trimming its $4.5 trillion balance sheet later this year. Mario Draghi strengthened the ECB’s message that their current monetary stimulus is still appropriate despite improving economic data, saying there is “scant” evidence of higher underlying… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 06, 2017

The dollar majors stuck to narrow ranges as risk events and key data loom. EUR-USD has settled back above 1.0650 after a brief dive-and-rebound action in the early London AM session, which left a three-week low at 1.0629. Markets are lacking positioning staying power ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting and into tomorrow’s U.S. jobs report,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 05, 2017

An outsized ADP jobs report took the dollar, stocks and yields higher early in the session, and the greenback largely maintained altitude into the close. EUR-USD fell from 1.0686 highs, as USD-JPY rallied from lows near 110.80. Later, the dollar rallied, then fell, the rallied again following the FOMC minutes. EUR-USD slipped to session lows… Read more »

OMG it's a slight pullback! We're DOOOMED!!!

After several months of utter silence, the Doomers are back!  What was remarkable is that they literally couldn’t find anything since the beginning of the year to hang their hats on. But OMG March was slightly weaker than February, so that must mean that the long hoped for, er, dreaded, economic crash is imminent. Sigh. … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Markets Quiet Ahead of Fed Minutes

OVERVIEW Private employers added more jobs than expected again last month, with ADP reporting an increase of 263,000 payrolls.    The UK service sector provided a welcome surprise to the upside as the PMI rose to 55.0 in March from 53.3 in February, beating market forecasts of 53.5. Bank of England member, Gertjan Vlieghe, said… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 05, 2017

The dollar traded net steady for the most part, with EUR-USD near net unchanged at 1.0668 bid and likewise for USD-JPY at 110.90 bid heading into the New York interbank open. The dollar lost ground to the pound, which rallied on an unexpected rise in UK services PMI data, while AUD-USD picked up amid a… Read more »