Category: Financial Markets

Financial markets news from external sources.

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 11, 2017

The dollar was mixed in N.Y. on Tuesday, posting marginal gains against the euro and CAD, while losing ground to sterling. USD-JPY took the biggest hit, falling to 5-month lows under 109.70 on the back of geopolitical concerns. The yen-maintained its safe-haven status, despite Japan’s geographic proximity to North Korea. EUR-USD topped at 1.0629 before… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: UK Inflation Holds Steady

OVERVIEW Eurozone industrial output fell 0.3% in February, largely due a sharp drop of energy production.  Germany’s ZEW survey of economic sentiment surged to 19.5 in April, its highest level since August 2015. The British Retail Consortium reported that retail sales fell 1% annually in March and rose just 0.1% in Q1 compared to the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 11, 2017

EUR-USD ascended above 1.0600 following the forecast-smashing German ZEW confidence reading for March, which rose to 19.5 in the future expectations component, up from 12.8 in the month prior. A 0.3% m/m decline in Eurozone production can be downplayed as reflective of weather-related gyrations in the energy sector over the first quarter. EUR-USD clocked a… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 11, 2017

The dollar is trading softer versus the yen and Australian dollar, and flat versus the euro and other currencies. The narrow USD index has ebbed back under 101.00 after yesterday logging a four-week peak at 101.22. USD-JPY has corrected bout two thirds of the run higher of the previous two sessions, settling today in the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 10, 2017

The dollar lost ground in N.Y. trade on Monday, reversing some of Friday’s gains. There was no U.S. data to provide direction, while the risk backdrop was mixed, with Wall Street moving between gains and losses. EUR-USD opened near 1.0575, later making its way to 1.0606 highs. USD-JPY faded from 111.40 to touch 110.81 lows,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: French Election Trips Up Euro

OVERVIEW The Eurozone Sentix investor sentiment index exceed market forecasts rising to 23.9, its highest level since August 2007. Fed Vice Chair Dudley said rates could still rise while reducing the central bank’s $4.5 trillion balance sheet. According to Visa, British consumer spending had the slowest annual increase in more than three years in Q1…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 10, 2017

The dollar edged out fresh highs against a range of currencies during. The narrow USD index log a one-month high of 101.22, which was the mirror of EUR-USD’s posting of a one-month low at 1.0570. A run lower in AUD-USD continued for an eighth consecutive session as the pair clocked a three-month low at 0.7476…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 10, 2017

The dollar has held up, though has tracked moderately lower into the London open after earlier carving out fresh highs against a range of currencies. The narrow USD index log a one-month high of 101.22, which was the mirror of EUR-USD’s posting of a one-month low at 1.0570. A run lower in AUD-USD continued for… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: The Global Productivity Slowdown Makes Headlines

     Christine Lagarde of the IMF gave a speech that discussed the global productivity slowdown.  She observed three main causes of this development: One is population aging in most advanced economies. Research suggests that worker skills tend to increase until a certain age and then to decline—with negative effects on innovation and productivity, although… Read more »

US Equity and Economic Review: Don't Worry About the Employment Report Just Yet

     This week, the Institute for Supply Management released their manufacturing and service sector indexes.  Both were generally positive and each contained bullish anecdotal comments.  While the service number declined a few points, it fell to a still very positive 55.2.  Production and new orders were also off a bit, but each is still high… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: A Closer Look at the 10-Year, 3-Month Spread

     It is now clear that the Federal Reserve will be increasing interest rates this year.  Therefore, it seems appropriate to look at the yield curve, specifically the 10 year-3 month spread, to determine the impact of the Fed’s actions on the curve.      Let’s start with a long-term look at the 10 year (in… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: bank lending indicators diverge sharply edition

March data started out with a miss on payrolls, but significant declines in both unemployment and underemployment. ISM manufacturing and services both decelerated but were both still very positive.  Motor vehicle sales declined significantly.  February data included an increase in factory orders and construction spending, while both wholesale sales and inventory increased. Source: XE… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 07, 2017

The dollar dropped following the much weaker than expected U.S. jobs report, though quickly recovered through the remainder of the session. The overnight U.S. missile raid on Syria brought some safe haven dollar buying to bear into the weekend, which lifted the unit across the board. EUR-USD topped at 1.0665 after the jobs data, before… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Employment Up

OVERVIEW FX Markets are relatively calm despite global activity that includes US missile attacks on Syria and a suspected terrorist attack in Sweden.  German industrial output surged 2.2% in February as demand at home and abroad increased. Germany’s trade balance swelled to €21bn, as exports rose 0.8%. UK industrial and manufacturing production both declined unexpectedly… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 07, 2017

The USD index clocked a fresh three-week high at 100.70, which largely reflected a drop in EUR-USD to the 1.0630 area that tested yesterday’s three-week low at 1.0629, though so far no exceeding it, and a decline Cable following a sub-forecast set of data out of the UK. The dollar has also scraped out highs… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 07, 2017

The yen rallied and then ebbed back to near neat unchanged levels in the wake of the U.S. strike in Syria. The dollar, meanwhile, has traded near flat against most currencies outside the case against the yen. USD-JPY retreated to a one-month low at 110.13 before recouped to near net unchanged levels above 110.50. The… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 06, 2017

FX trade was quiet in N.Y. on Thursday, as the market remained sidelined ahead of Friday’s key U.S. jobs report. Major dollar pairings were stick inside of familiar ranges, with the greenback posting marginal gains overall. Lower jobless claims had little impact, though between those and the higher ADP jobs report earlier in the week,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Czech Crown Jumps as Central Bank Ends Cap

OVERVIEW The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting revealed that most members think they should take steps to begin trimming its $4.5 trillion balance sheet later this year. Mario Draghi strengthened the ECB’s message that their current monetary stimulus is still appropriate despite improving economic data, saying there is “scant” evidence of higher underlying… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 06, 2017

The dollar majors stuck to narrow ranges as risk events and key data loom. EUR-USD has settled back above 1.0650 after a brief dive-and-rebound action in the early London AM session, which left a three-week low at 1.0629. Markets are lacking positioning staying power ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting and into tomorrow’s U.S. jobs report,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 05, 2017

An outsized ADP jobs report took the dollar, stocks and yields higher early in the session, and the greenback largely maintained altitude into the close. EUR-USD fell from 1.0686 highs, as USD-JPY rallied from lows near 110.80. Later, the dollar rallied, then fell, the rallied again following the FOMC minutes. EUR-USD slipped to session lows… Read more »

OMG it's a slight pullback! We're DOOOMED!!!

After several months of utter silence, the Doomers are back!  What was remarkable is that they literally couldn’t find anything since the beginning of the year to hang their hats on. But OMG March was slightly weaker than February, so that must mean that the long hoped for, er, dreaded, economic crash is imminent. Sigh. … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Markets Quiet Ahead of Fed Minutes

OVERVIEW Private employers added more jobs than expected again last month, with ADP reporting an increase of 263,000 payrolls.    The UK service sector provided a welcome surprise to the upside as the PMI rose to 55.0 in March from 53.3 in February, beating market forecasts of 53.5. Bank of England member, Gertjan Vlieghe, said… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 05, 2017

The dollar traded net steady for the most part, with EUR-USD near net unchanged at 1.0668 bid and likewise for USD-JPY at 110.90 bid heading into the New York interbank open. The dollar lost ground to the pound, which rallied on an unexpected rise in UK services PMI data, while AUD-USD picked up amid a… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 05, 2017

The dollar and yen are trading softer versus other currencies today, while USD-JPY itself has drifted lower in Tokyo before finding a footing at 110.53, leaving yesterday’s 8-day low at 110.27 unchallenged. This puts a break on a run of three consecutive down sessions, though risk sentiment remains fragile, suggesting rebound potential is limited. North… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 04, 2017

Major dollar pairings were fairly well behaved through the N.Y. session Tuesday, leaving the greenback mixed overall. EUR-USD touched 1.0636 lows into the open, then later rallied to 1.0668 highs. USD-JPY meanwhile got a boost from an uptick in risk taking levels, which came following President Trump’s call for $1.0 tln in infrastructure spending. The… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Holds Gains as Trade Deficit Shrinks

OVERVIEW Australia’s central bank kept interest rates on hold as expected at 1.5%. Trade data for Australia showed a surplus of A$3.57 billion in February, more than double the previous month. Canada’s trade balance swung to an unexpected deficit of almost C$1 billion in February as exports fell 2.4%. Eurozone retail sales rose 0.7% in… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 04, 2017

The dollar and yen continued to ascend versus most other currencies amid a mostly risk-off environment. Most stock markets in Asia and Europe followed Wall Street declines of yesterday, while S&P 500 futures also came under pressure. The yield gap between French and German 2-year debt rose to new post-euro crisis highs amid positioning ahead… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 04, 2017

The yen remained bid. USD-JPY fell for a third consecutive session, logging a one-week low at 110.36. Stock market weakness, amid reports investors have been rotating capital into bonds from equities as part of a Q2 strategy, has been weighting on the pair in accordance with the usual correlative pattern. Some yen crosses are showing… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 03, 2017

The dollar majors have been mostly steady in early week trade. USD-JPY recouped to around 111.50 after logging a two-session low at 111.13 in Tokyo trade. EUR-USD managed to remain above Friday’s a two-week low at 1.0650, though price action can best be described as remaining heavy as intraday gains stalled around 1.0680. Cable came… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 03, 2017

The dollar majors are steady in early week and early-quarter trade. USD-JPY has recouped to around 111.50 after logging a two-session low at 111.13 earlier in Tokyo trade. EUR-USD has posted a narrow range around 1.0670-80 after finding a toehold on Friday, when a two-week low was left at 1.0650. A batch of data out… Read more »

US Equity and Economic Review: The Markets Consolidate the Trump Bump

     The BEA released the 3rd revision to 4Q GDP.  Overall growth was 2.1% quarter to quarter and 1% Y/Y.  Let’s analyze the four major spending categories, beginning with personal consumption expenditures: Overall PCEs increased 3.5% quarterly and 3.1% annually.  All three components grew consistently on a Q/Q and Y/Y basis.  The U.S. consumer is… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: Williams and Rosengran Explain Why the Fed is Raising Rates

     Academic bloggers and other high-profile commentators have argued there is still sufficient slack in the economy to warrant keeping rates low for now.  Labor utilization measures (such as the U-6 unemployment rate) and wages are still weak.  Top-line economic growth is still modest or moderate (to use two of the Fed’s favorite adjectives).  And… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: Brexit Begins

     The week’s biggest news was the UK’s invocation of Article 50, formally beginning “Brexit.”  Numerous people have offered commentary on this event.  But there are only 2 firm conclusions anyone can draw about the situation.  First, the EU will make sure that the UK experiences large enough economic pain to dispel other countries… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: short term again very positive edition

February data included mixed measures of consumer confidence, one soaring and one declining slightly, a more positive Chicago PMI, increases in personal income and spending, but spending flat adjusted for inflation, and an increase in the Case-Shiller house price index. In the rear view mirror, Q4 GDP was revised slightly higher, and Q4 corporate profits… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Mar 31, 2017

The dollar traded lower through most of the N.Y. session on Friday, with week/month/quarter end positioning the driving factor. Incoming data was mixed, with personal income and Chicago PMI both beating, while consumption and Michigan sentiment missed their marks. EUR-USD topped just over 1.0700, then later eased into 1.0665 lows, while USD-JPY faded from 111.97… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Canadian Dollar Rises on Strong GDP

OVERVIEW Eurozone consumer price inflation slowed in March far more than the market had expected, dipping to 1.5% from 2% in February with core inflation dropping to 0.7%.  Donald Tusk said the EU will not pursue a punitive approach to Brexit.  UK quarterly GDP growth was unrevised at 0.7% as expected though the annualized figures… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Mar 31, 2017

The dollar remained bid, despite the latest protestations from the Trump camp on forex levels, with the greenback logging 16-day highs versus the euro and a 10-day peak against the yen. The buck also firmed against the pound, which ebbed following the European Council’s publication of its draft guidelines on Brexit negotiations, which will be… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Mar 31, 2017

The dollar remained bid, rising to fresh highs versus the yen and other currencies, despite the latest protestations from team Trump on the forex front. EUR-USD fell into 16-day low terrain under 1.0675, while USD-JPY rallied to a 10-day peak of 112.20. Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Europe – Mar 31, 2017

Corporate profits bounce back (in Q4 2016!)

One of the established long leading indicators is corporate profits.  But it is reported with a very long lag.  That’s why in January, when I made my long range forecast for 2017, I used the less leading but generally reliable “proprietors income” as a proxy. Source: XE news feed Corporate profits bounce back (in… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Mar 30, 2017

The dollar started the day on a stronger footing, getting a boost overall from an upgraded U.S. Q4 GDP revision. Stocks and yields moved higher, supportive of the greenback as well. Later, the dollar fell across the board, as CNBC reported that the Trump administration is assessing ways to penalize currency manipulators. Better risk taking… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Euro Dips on ECB and Inflation Data

OVERVIEW Economic sentiment in the Eurozone dipped very marginally in March against the forecast for a slight rise. Consumer confidence was unchanged as expected but inflation expectations surged to its highest reading since 2013. Spanish inflation cooled sharply in March slowing from an annual rate of 3% in February to 2.1%.  Chicago Fed President, Charles… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Mar 30, 2017

The dollar saw fresh highs versus the euro, which remained under general pressure, and remained generally underpinned against most other currencies. EUR-USD clocked a 10-day low at 1.0730. A combo of ECB-speak and Eurozone data maintained pressure on the common currency. USD-JPY clocked a six-day high at 111.42 during the Tokyo session before seeing choppy… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Mar 30, 2017

The dollar has continued to hold up, trading at or near one-week-plus highs versus the other major currencies. USD-JPY earlier clocked a six-day high at 111.42, since ebbing back toward 111.00. EUR-USD has remained heavy, coming within a pip of yesterday’s 10-day low at 1.0740, which was seen after a Reuters report suggested that the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Mar 29, 2017

The dollar was relatively steady through the N.Y. session on Wednesday, trading on either side of 1.0750 against the euro, after slipping from over 1.0780 at the open, and on either side of 111.00 versu the yen. Risk taking levels were mixed, as yields dipped, and Wall Street underperformed. Cable was choppy after the official… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: British Pound Stable as Article 50 Triggered

OVERVIEW A source at the ECB said that March’s message of reducing their stimulus was “way over-interpreted”.  Ian McCafferty from the BoE played down suggestions that he would follow Kristen Forbes lead and start voting for a rate hike. UK consumer borrowing slowed less than expected in February, rising £1.44bn versus forecasts of £1.3bn. The… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Mar 29, 2017

Sterling largely took the signing of the official Brexit divorce papers in stride, moving modestly higher against both the dollar and the euro. Elsewhere, mostly steady equity markets in the U.S. and Europe, along with sideways action in sovereign yields, has seen the dollar flatten out as well. The U.S. economic calendar is light today,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Mar 29, 2017

It’s D-day for Brexit and the pound is down, showing an average 0.4% loss versus the G3 currencies heading into the London interbank open. There is an awful lot of water to pass under the bridge over the next two years, which is the minimum time for negotiations following today’s expected long-awaited triggering of Article… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Mar 28, 2017

The dollar started out on a mostly steady footing in N.Y. on Tuesday, though made advances later in the session, as the latest consumer confidence report was way higher than forecast. This resulted in rising yields, rising stocks, and a rising dollar. In addition, House Speaker Ryan made encouraging statements on his conference’s ability to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Rate Hike Focus Steadies Greenback

OVERVIEW A German chamber of commerce survey found almost half of the 1,300 firms surveyed expect Brexit to have a negative impact on trade. Exports to the UK have already begun falling. US consumer confidence surged to 125.6 in March, its highest reading in 16 years. US house prices rose at an annualized pace of… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Mar 28, 2017

The dollar and other major currencies traded in relatively narrow ranges. The unwinding of the “Trumpflation” trade came to a pause, reflected by a calm trading in stock markets and the dollar. EUR-USD settled in the mid 1.080s after yesterday failing to sustain gains above 1.0900. USD-JPY lodged itself in the mid 110.0s after clocking… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Mar 28, 2017

The dollar and Wall Street regained some composure after the storm caused by the Trump administrations to achieve promised health care reforms. USD-JPY has found a footing after clocking a four-month low at 110.11 yesterday, which completed a run of eight down days out of the last nine sessions. EUR-USD has settled in the mid… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Mar 27, 2017

The dollar added to overnight losses in N.Y. morning trade on Monday, though perked up some after the London close, as Wall Street recovered a good chunk of their early losses. USD-JPY bottomed at 110.12, a four month base, before recovering over 110.50. EUR-USD topped at 1.0906, a four month high, then later eased back… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Trump-Care Setback Hammers Dollar

OVERVIEW The US Dollar has slumped to a four-month low against a basket of currencies.  Sterling is strong ahead of Wednesday’s triggering of Article 50. Commodity linked currencies stumble in risk-off trade.  HIGHLIGHT The week starts with risk aversion due to two events: firstly, Trump’s healthcare reform act failed to be passed in Congress and… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Mar 27, 2017

The dollar logged a four-month-plus low against the yen, a four-week low versus sterling and a three-month-plus low in the case against the euro, in addition to fresh lows against other currencies. The losses reflect a fresh unwinding of the “Trumpflation” trade following the failure of the health care bill late on Friday. S&P 500… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Mar 27, 2017

The dollar has been under pressure following the failure of Trump’s healthcare reform bill, which has cast doubt over his ability to push through his other reform bills. USD-JPY has been the biggest mover, with markets demanding the safe haven yen. The pair is showing over a 1% decline, having fallen four-month-plus low of 110.15…. Read more »

US Equity and Economic Review: It's Just a Correction, Nothing More

     The housing market continues to grow.  New home sales increased 6.1% M/M and 12.8% Y/Y.  While existing home sales declined 3.7% M/M they rose 12.8% Y/Y.  The following chart places these figures into a longer-term context: Source: XE news feed US Equity and Economic Review: It’s Just a Correction, Nothing More

International Economic Week in Review: Edging Higher

     Earlier in the week, Gavyn Davies at the FT published a story that theorized about potential ways that the latest expansion could end.  According to him, these three options represent the highest possibilities: Source: XE news feed International Economic Week in Review: Edging Higher

US Bond Market Week in Review: Gradual Lift-Off Has Begun

     The Fed’s consensus is now for additional rate hikes.  Cleveland President Mester – who is a non-voting member – argued for 3 rate hikes this year in addition to a reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet.  Chicago Fed President Evans – who does vote on interest rate policy – is arguing for 2 additional… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: almost no negatives edition

February data included a decrease in existing home sales, but an increase in the more economically important new home sales. Durable goods orders increased, although “core” durable goods decreased slightly.   Source: XE news feed Weekly Indicators: almost no negatives edition

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Mar 24, 2017

FX Trade was nervous in N.Y. on Friday, though ranges overall were relatively narrow, and the dollar mixed. Uncertainty over the outcome of the House healthcare bill was behind the market chop, with wrangling going on between House leadership and the White House through most of the session. EUR-USD ranged between 1.0815 and 1.0791 through… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Eurozone Business Growth Fastest in 6 Years

OVERVIEW BoE policymaker Vlieghe’s comments dampen rate increase prospects causing Pound to give back gains. The US Dollar is steady as we wait for another vote on the new healthcare legislation later today. Euro strengthens on Purchasing Managers survey report of buoyancy in the service and manufacturing sectors. The Japanese Yen had its strongest run… Read more »

Positive trends in most housing sales indicators continue

With the exception of existing home sales, the least important metric, the housing market continues to show surprising strength in the face of rising interest rates. Source: XE news feed Positive trends in most housing sales indicators continue

XE Market Analysis: North America – Mar 24, 2017

The dollar lost ground to an outperforming euro following forecast-beating PMI data out of the Eurozone, ebbed back to near net unchanged levels versus the yen after clocking a two-day high during the Tokyo session, and held generally tight ranges versus most other currencies. Stock markets were mostly higher in Asia, but have traded lower… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Mar 24, 2017

The dollar has traded firmer along with Wall Street, recovering some of ground lost midweek. USD-JPY logged a two-session high at 111.48 and EUR-USD a two-session low at 1.0760. The USD index is up 0.4% from the seven-week low it logged on Wednesday. Markets are giving the benefit of the doubt to Trump’s ultimatum on… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Mar 23, 2017

The dollar was fairly stable in N.Y. trade on Thursday, as the market largely hunkered down into the key U.S. House healthcare vote. USD-JPY was the most reactive to the vote news flow, rallying to session highs of 111.25 on reports the vote would be delayed so a deal could be made, then pulling back… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: UK Retail Sales Boom

OVERVIEW Sterling stronger today following better than expected retail sales. The Bank of Japan’s minutes stated that the country’s economic recovery is continuing at a moderate pace. Eurozone current account surplus fell to its lowest level in 15 months. New Zealand leaves rates on hold at 1.75%. HIGHLIGHT Retail sales in the UK surged in… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Mar 23, 2017

The dollar has found a toehold but still retains a heavy tone into the key vote on healthcare in the U.S. House later today. USD-JPY has recouped above 111.00 after logging a four-month low at 110.73 yesterday, though met decent sellers above 111.50 during the Tokyo session, and had again dipped back under here as… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Mar 23, 2017

The dollar has found a toehold but still retains a heavy tone into the key vote on healthcare in the U.S. House later today. USD-JPY has recouped above 111.00 after logging a four-month low at 110.73 yesterday, though met decent sellers above 111.50 during the Tokyo session. EUR-USD has settled near 1.0800 after clocking a… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Mar 22, 2017

The dollar was lower again in N.Y. on Wednesday, with risk-off again in play. EUR-USD rallied to one-month highs of 1.0824, and USD-JPY to four-month lows of 110.75. Cable printed the 1.25 handle for the first time in a month, though pulled back some following the terrorist attack in London. USD-CAD eased back from over… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Global Risk Appetite Slumps

OVERVIEW Investors’ risk aversion drives safe haven buying. The US Dollar is trading at a four-month low against the Yen as major indices and treasury yields plummet.  US House Price Index is reported flat against an expected increase of 0.4%. BOJ deputy governor Iwata says, “a continuously falling Yen is not a benefit to the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Mar 22, 2017

The dollar made fresh lows versus the yen, which continued to outperform amid a risk aversion coursed its way from Wall Street, which had its worse day since last October yesterday, through Asia and into the European AM session. The greenback trade more mixed against other currencies, gaining versus the dollar bloc as commodity prices… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Mar 22, 2017

The dollar has remained under the cosh amid investor concerns that the Trump administration is getting bogged down, delaying the implementation of hoped-for reflation policies. Falling Treasury yield yields have been a driver, which have also been a kicker for financial stocks, exacerbating stock market woes in the latest phase. Wall Street had its worse… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Mar 21, 2017

The dollar was broadly lower through the N.Y. session on Tuesday, leaving the DXY at six-week lows of 99.68. Risk-off conditions weighed generally, though for EUR-USD, talk from council members of the ECB moving to a neutral from easing bias supported the euro, taking the pairing to 1.0819 highs. Cable was up to one-month highs… Read more »

Current U.S. Economic Indicators All Point to Moderate Growth

  The chart above graphs the 4 coincident economic indicators used by the Conference Board. The graph uses a base 100 methodology, using the end of the last recession as “100.”      Industrial production (green) is the weakest indicator.  But the decline in oil production is the primary reason for the decline.      Real… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Mar 21, 2017

The dollar came under a fresh bout of broad pressure during the European AM session. Cable led the way with an advance of nearly 1% following hotter than expected UK inflation data, which helped the pair on its way to a three-week peak at 1.2471. EUR-USD clocked a new six-week high at 1.0804, winding in… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Mar 21, 2017

The dollar has traded mixed after tumbling in the wake of last week’s “dovish rate hike” by the Fed. EUR-USD has carved out a fresh six-week peak at 1.0788, breaching above Friday’s high at 1.0782. EUR-JPY and other euro crosses have also remained bid, with investors still in process of discounting reduced political risk into… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Mar 20, 2017

The FX market was quiet in N.Y. on Monday, with major dollar pairings largely trading inside of narrow ranges. There was no data to drive prices, while many were likely distracted by the near session-long congressional grilling of FBI director Comey on Russia. EUR-USD managed a 1.0760 to 1.0739 range, while USD-JPY was stuck inside… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Article 50 Triggers Date Set

OVERVIEW The Pound is steady as a date has been set for triggering Article 50.  US Dollar weakens as potential delays to President Trump’s massive infrastructure plans occur.  The Euro strengthens as geo-political concerns over the presidential election subside.   HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Article 50 Triggers Date Set

Mick Keogh: ‘Market transparency matters’

In the current post-regulation era for Australian agricultural markets, there is a growing awareness of the importance of market transparency as a key factor to ensure markets remain competitive, and the benefits of sectoral efficiency gains are distributed equitably through supply chains. The post Mick Keogh: ‘Market transparency matters’ appeared first on Beef Central. … Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: the BOE and BOJ Hold

     Deflation has been one of the top economic stories of the last 4-5 years.  Starting in 2014, declining energy prices were a primary reason for this development.  But when OPEC agreed to cut production in 2015, oil prices rallied to ~$50 barrel.  Across the globe, the energy price component of most CPI measures… Read more »

US Equity and Economic Review: The Good News Continues

     This week’s news was mostly bullish.  The LEIs continued to increase and the housing market is still growing.  Weak industrial production growth was the only negative.  As for the markets, they continue to consolidate recent gains.  Although they are expensive, the solid economic and earnings news provides ample support for their current rally.  … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Mar 17, 2017

FX trade took a bit of a breather in N.Y. trade on Friday, with most major dollar pairings consolidating following USD losses seen earlier in the week. Dollar direction was mostly sideways, as witnessed by a near unchanged close in the DXY. Incoming U.S. data was mixed, as industrial production was light, while Michigan sentiment… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: French Poll Trips Up Euro

OVERVIEW Yesterday, ECB board member Ewald Nowotny said the ECB could hike its remuneration of bank deposits.  Theresa May rejected calls for a second Scottish independence referendum, saying it’s unfair to ask the Scottish people to decide without knowing the UK/EU Brexit deal. US industrial production fell unexpectedly in January, with output declining 0.1%. New… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Mar 17, 2017

The dollar was heading into the New York interbank open near net unchanged on the day versus the yen, euro and Canadian dollar, while showing moderate losses against sterling and the Australian dollar. The post-Fed announcement rally in global stock markets came to a pause with investors now casting attention on the G20 meeting to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Mar 17, 2017

The euro has remained broadly underpinned in the wake of the kick-down of the anti-EU movement at the Dutch election and after ECB member Nowotny said late yesterday that the deposit rate may be hiked before the repo rate. Nowotny’s comments were not intended to signal the timing of a policy tightening, but have been… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Mar 16, 2017

The dollar largely stayed down in N.Y. on Thursday, as the DXY fell to one-month lows of 100.36, as fallout from the less hawkish than expected FOMC announcement weighed. Incoming U.S. data was better than expected, as housing starts and the Philly Fed index beat forecasts, while jobless claims were in-line with expectations. EUR-USD ranged… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: British Pound Jumps After Surprise Rate Hike Vote

OVERVIEW The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.25% as expected last night, but left growth and rate path forecast unchanged. The Bank of Japan kept rates on hold and said the Japanese economy still needed massive monetary support as inflation is 2% away from its target. The Swiss National Bank also held rates as… Read more »

Real retail sales and the 2017 outlook

As I’ve said many times, real retail sales is one of my favorite measures of the economy, because it imparts so much information about the broader economy as well. Source: XE news feed Real retail sales and the 2017 outlook

XE Market Analysis: North America – Mar 16, 2017

The dollar extended post-Fed announcement gains against some currencies before settling. Gains in stock markets in Asia and Europe made USD-JPY bears think twice, helping the pair lift out of a 16-day low at 112.90 and back to the mid 113s. The euro held firm while the spread between Dutch and German yields narrowed as… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Mar 16, 2017

The dollar is down 1%-plus following an on-the-fact market response to the Fed’s 25 bp rate hike. USD-JPY is down about 1.5% in making lows near 113.00, and EUR-USD is trading in five-month high territory near 1.0750. The dollar slide has been concomitant with a dive in Treasury yields. While the hike fully met expectations,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Mar 15, 2017

FX trade was quiet through the morning session N.Y. on Thursday, though the dollar sold off after the FOMC announcement, where rates were raised by 25 basis points, as was widely expected. The statement indicated Fed officials see the Fed Funds rate at a median of 1.40% at the end of 2017, indicating 2 more… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: U.S. Inflation Rises To a 5-Year High

OVERVIEW Markets are relatively quiet ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and the outcome of the Dutch elections. UK labor market data showed the economy continued to add jobs in February with the unemployment rate falling to 4.7%, its lowest since 2005. U.S. retail sales rose 0.1% last month in line with expectations but… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Mar 15, 2017

The dollar majors settled into the twin risk event of the Dutch election and the FOMC announcement, a 25 bp rate hike is fully discounted but some uncertainty about the degree of hawkishness the Fed will signal in its policy guidance.[EUR, USD] Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: North America – Mar 15,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Mar 15, 2017

Sterling has rallied in the wake of a Bloomberg report, citing unnamed sources, saying that the EU won’t authorize Brexit negotiations until June 20th, despite clear communication from the UK government over the last six months that it will invoke Article 50 by the end of March (repeated by a PM spokesperson earlier in this… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Mar 14, 2017

FX trade was subdued for the most part in N.Y. Tuesday trade, with all eyes looking ahead to the FOMC announcement on Wednesday. The Fed is universally expected to hike rates another 25 bps , which would be the third tightening of the cycle. With the hike fully priced, the markets will look to the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Mar 14, 2017

The dollar was bid as markets jostle for position ahead of the FOMC announcement tomorrow, where the risk is that a fully expected 25 bp rate hike is accompanied with pretty hawkish guidance. EUR-USD carved out a two-day low at 1.0632, unaffected by perky German inflation data and a rise in German ZEW data. USD-JPY… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Mar 14, 2017

The dollar has picked up some as markets jostle for position ahead of the FOMC announcement tomorrow, where the risk is that a fully expected 25 bp rate hike is accompanied with pretty hawkish guidance. EUR-USD has ebbed to two-day lows under 1.0640 while USD-JPY has lifted to two-session highs above 115.12, extending the rebound… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Mar 13, 2017

FX trade was quiet in N.Y. on Monday, with narrow ranges dominating. There was no data to move the market, and the dollar overall was mixed, a bit higher against the euro, flat versus the yen, and lower against the CAD and pound. Activity is liable to dry up further into Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, where… Read more »