Category: Financial Markets

Financial markets news from external sources.

US Economic Week in Review: The Manufacturing and Service Sector Economies Are Doing Well

            Over the last two weeks, the Institute of Supply Management has released their latest purchasing managers index of the manufacturing and service sector.  Both were positive, showing an underlying economic strength that belies the recent market carnage.  In today’s column, I’ll organize the related economic data around these reports… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: Yields Are Rising

We’ve seen a lot of upward movement in the yield curve this year, especially in the long-end: Source: XE news feed US Bond Market Week in Review: Yields Are Rising

Weekly Indicators: forecast positive despite stock market gyrations edition

There was no January data this week. Wholesale inventories rose in December, but sales rose even more, driving the inventory to sales ratio down, also a positive. The JOLTS report for December was also positive. Source: XE news feed Weekly Indicators: forecast positive despite stock market gyrations edition

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 09, 2018

The dollar firmed up some overall in N.Y. trade on Friday, support generally by safe-haven flows, the result of another Wall Street selloff. The DXY climbed to 90.56 highs from opening levels near 90.20. EUR-USD bottomed at 1.2206 from 1.2279 highs before bouncing to 1.2235, while USD-JPY remained correlated to equities, hitting 108.05, five-month lows…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 09, 2018

The dollar traded steady-to-firmer today. EUR-USD drifted back under 1.2250 after a rebound capped out at 1.2287, shy of yesterday’s 1.2295 high to maintain the run of lower highs that’s been seen since the release of the January U.S. jobs report last Friday, which catalysed market expectations for the Fed to recommit to tightening monetary… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 09, 2018

The dollar has been trading mixed, losing ground to the euro, sterling, among other currencies, while gaining on the yen and Australian dollar . USD-JPY clocked a four-day low of 108.49 in the early Tokyo session before rebounding above 109.0, dropping amid a phase of yen buying after the Dow clocked a 4%-plus closing loss… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: British Pound Rallies as BoE Signals More Rate Hikes

OVERVIEW US congressional leaders reach a budget deal that adds to the deficit. GBP higher after Bank of England meeting. The Euro is softer after ECB comments on inflation and stimulus. German trade surplus shrunk for the first time in 8 years in 2017. Stock markets back in the red mark as global interest rates… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 08, 2018

The DXY settled near mid-range in N.Y. on Thursday, bottoming at 90.03, and peaking at 90.42. Wall Street’s plunge resulted in some save-haven USD buying, with the risk-sensitive yen being an exception. USD-JPY fell to 108.59 lows from 10975 early in the session. EUR-USD ranged between 1.2213 and 1.2295. USD-CAD printed 2018 highs of 1.2615… Read more »

Senior Loan Officer Survey confirms looser credit conditions

A few days ago the Fed put out its Senior Loan Officer Survey.  This is a long leading indicator for the economy, as it generally takes a year or two for a loosening or tightening of credit, which is what it measures, to filter through into the wider economy.   Source: XE news feed … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 08, 2018

The dollar has extended gains in London AM trading. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) was showing a net gain of 0.3%, as of the late London AM session , at 90.54, which is 3 cents off the day’s high, itself the loftiest level seen since January 24. EUR-USD logged a 16-day low at 1.2225. … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 08, 2018

The dollar has traded mixed today, gaining moderately versus the euro, sterling, Australian dollar, among other currencies, but holding steady versus the Canadian dollar while gaining for a third straight day versus the yen. The Japanese currency has been coming under pressure as market participants trim safe haven trades as global markets find a toehold,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 07, 2018

The dollar rallied in N.Y. trade on Wednesday, taking the DXY to better than two-week highs of 90.40. EUR-USD fell from 1.2350 highs at the open, to 1.2245. USD-JPY meanwhile, rallied from 109.13 to 109.67, as USD-CAD printed one-month highs of 1.2577 on the back of oil price weakness. Cable found support under 1.3850.[EUR, USD] … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Firming, Stock Markets Recover

OVERVIEW US Senate reportedly agrees on a 2-year government funding deal.  Leaked document shows EU could restrict UK market access during the transition. German parties close to forming a coalition government. German industrial output fell 0.6% in December after surging 3.1% in November. UK house prices fell unexpectedly in January. European stock markets are up… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 07, 2018

The dollar traded mostly firmer as U.S. equity future declines, a shaky finish across Asian bourses and a tumble from intraday highs by the main European stock indexes suggest the risk-off phase may not be over yet. EUR-USD fell to a low of 1.2337, swinging yesterday’s pre-Wall Street rebound low at 1.2313 back into scope…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 07, 2018

The dollar traded mixed versus its major peers and developing world currencies, losing ground to the yen, euro, and sterling, among others, while gaining versus the Australian dollar and some other currencies, including the New Zealand dollar after a short-lived rally the antipodean currency in the wake of an above-forecast Q4 employment report. Source:… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 06, 2018

The dollar started the session on a firmer footing, as it appeared Wall Street would melt down again at the open, which it did. Safe-haven dollar buying was noted before the opening bell, though after plunging initially, stocks turned-tail higher, resulting in dollar selling. USD-JPY was somewhat of an outlier, as it largely maintained its… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 06, 2018

The dollar has held firm, and the yen firmer amid a persisting global risk aversion theme. Japan’s Nikkei closed with a 4.8% loss, and was showing intraday losses of over 6% at the lows, while the Shanghai Composite and Australia’s ASX 200 racked up losses of over 3%, and the main European indexes declines of… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 06, 2018

The dollar has held firm, and the yen firmer amid a persisting global risk aversion theme. Japan’s Nikkei closed with a 4.8% loss, and was showing intraday losses of over 6% at the lows, while the Shanghai Composite and Australia’s ASX 200 racked up losses of over 3%. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) logged… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Sterling Struggles at the Start of the Week

OVERVIEW US Dollar consolidates from Friday’s gains. Theresa May says no to customs union post-Brexit. HIGHLIGHT The US Dollar has consolidated its gains from Friday on the back of a stronger than expected employment number last month. The stock markets continued their move lower while bond yields rose as markets start to believe another rate… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 05, 2018

The dollar was mixed in relatively light trade in N.Y. on Monday, posting modest gains against the CAD and GBP, while ending a bit higher versus the euro, and down against the yen. The services ISM bear expectations and gave the greenback a small boost, though overall FX trade remained nervous given the backdrop of… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 05, 2018

The dollar mostly consolidated at higher levels versus those seen ahead of the U.S. jobs report on Friday, though USD-JPY was an exception, with the pair slipping to the 109.75-85 area as the yen picked up safe haven bids amid a backdrop of coursing risk aversion in global stock markets as investors factor in rising… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 05, 2018

The dollar has been consolidating gains seen on Friday in the wake of the above-forecast U.S. jobs report, which fired up Fed tightening expectations with a strong wage increase component. EUR-USD has been settled around 1.2450, above Friday’s post-data low at 1.2409 but holding some 40 pips below levels that were prevailing ahead of the… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: The Yellen Era Ends With a Bang

            This week was the end of the Yellen era.  She was one of the most accomplished economists to rise to the top the Fed and presided over a period of “moderate” adjustment to monetary policy.  We now enter the Powell era, which, by all accounts, will be a continuation… Read more »

US Economic Week in Review: Consumer Spending is Very Strong

            This week, the economic news centered on the US consumer’s spending habits.  PCEs increased strongly, which is corroborated by recent retail sales figures.  Spending on durable goods was remarkably resilient, which was confirmed by this week’s auto sales numbers.  Finally, the employment situation is strong.  The 4-week moving average… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: stocks and bonds take center stage edition

January data started out with a strong headline jobs number, and a much touted big increase in average wages for all workers..  But the unemployment rate stalled, and underemployment actually increased slightly.  Meanwhile, workers who aren’t in management didn’t see that big increase in wages at all, as that YoY metric made no headway.  … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 02, 2018

The dollar rallied sharply on the back of the solid jobs report, and the jump in hourly earnings. Treasury yields soared to trend highs, after the jobs numbers, and the rebound in factory order and Michigan sentiment. Wall Street was not happy with the yield bounce, as stocks were hammered lower. The release of the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Dollar Strengthens as Wage Growth Accelerates

OVERVIEW UK construction activity almost stalls in January. US consumer sentiment rises in January. Global equity markets are down as interest rates rise. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are down 20%. HIGHLIGHT The US Dollar is higher against all its major counterparts after the US employment report showed another solid month of job creation last month,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 02, 2018

The dollar has been directionally mixed since the FOMC earlier this week, gaining mostly notably versus the yen, and the Australian dollar, but losing ground to the main European currencies, including the euro, sterling and Swiss franc. The dollar has also been somewhat mixed against developing-world currencies. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) has managed… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 01, 2018

The dollar was dented by a weak productivity print, though did not recover in the aftermath of a good manufacturing ISM and solid construction spending. EUR-USD bottomed at 1.2343, before rallying to 1.2498 highs. USD-JPY trade to 109.24 lows, though found some support as Wall Street recovered. USD-CAD dipped to 1.2268 on firmer oil prices… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 01, 2018

The yen and Australian dollar came under pressure, while the dollar traded steady-to-softer versus most other currencies. USD-JPY has forayed to a one-week high of 109.75, extending the recovery from last week’s four-month low at 108.28. Yen crosses also gain, with EUR-JPY, for instance, up by 0.7% in the early London PM session. The rekindling… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 01, 2018

The has dollar has traded firmer in the wake of yesterday’s FOMC announcement, which brought the expected no-change decision in policy settings but was accompanied by upgrades in the Fed’s growth and inflation projections. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) is up 0.6% from four-session yesterday’s low at 88.78, logging a high of 89.31. EUR-USD… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 31, 2018

Trade was quiet ahead of the FOMC, though the dollar did perk up some on pre-Fed short covering, helped by a stronger than expected ADP jobs report. The dollar chopped around inside a narrow range after the FOMC announcement, before steadying unchanged to a bit higher after the dust had settled. Rates were left unchanged,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Dollar on Course for Biggest Monthly Loss in 2 Years

OVERVIEW GBP weakens as the EU says no to special financial services deal. EUR supported by stronger core inflation data. ADP reports 234k jobs were added in the private sector last month. UK consumer confidence rises unexpectedly, outlook still soft. AUD slips after inflation weaker than forecast. BoJ signals no immediate end to stimulus. HIGHLIGHT … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 31, 2018

The dollar rebounded during the London AM session after coming under pressure during in Asia, with the looming Fed announcement serving to inspire position trimming, quelling trend following. The USD index (DXY) recovered to 88.98 after logging a three-session low at 88.82. The index was still showing a net 0.3% decline on the day. EUR-USD… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 31, 2018

The dollar has been trading with a heavy bias amid a backdrop of mostly firming stock markets in Asia, though has remained well off recent trend lows. EUR-USD logged a three-session high at 1.2450, and USD-JPY ebbed to an intraday low of 108.62 after peaking at 109.09 in the Tokyo session. Dovish remarks came from… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 30, 2018

After opening under some pressure, the greenback made a bit of a comeback later in the session, rising against the yen and dollar after Bloomberg reported further comments from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin on the dollar. In congressional testimony, Mnuchin reportedly said he was not trying to jawbone the dollar lower, reiterating his CNBC comments from… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: EU GDP Keeping Up with US Growth Levels

OVERVIEW US consumer confidence improves in January. The British economy is performing better than expected. ECB’s caution warranted as German inflation remains lackluster. HIGHLIGHT Q4 GDP from the EU was in line with expectations at 0.6%, allowing year-over-year growth to reach 2.7%, demonstrating that the recent positive momentum in the EU economy is allowing them… Read more »

Second half 2018 forecast: still positive

As promised, once the GDP report came out, I can now give the second part of my 2018 forecast.  To forecast Q1 and Q2, I employ the the K.I.S.S. method of following the Index of Leading Indicators plus several other short term data points. Source: XE news feed Second half 2018 forecast: still positive

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 30, 2018

The dollar has come back under pressure, and is presently vying with the Australian dollar for the biggest loser on the day spot. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) is presently showing a loss of 0.2%, having earlier been showing a 0.3% gain on the day, and a 0.7% gain from yesterday’s low. EUR-USD has… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 30, 2018

The dollar has continued to hold steady-to-firmer as markets anticipate a hawkish tweak in the Fed’s policy guidance at tomorrow’s concluding of the FOMC meeting, which starts later today. This sentiment has spilled into global equity markets, souring risk appetite in a richly valued asset environment. Most commodity markets are similarly down for a second… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 29, 2018

The dollar managed to gain some ground in N.Y. on Monday, following sharp losses seen last week. The DXY recovered to 89.61 after printing three-plus year lows of 88.44 on Friday. The market appears to be preparing for a more hawkish FOMC statement on Wednesday, which has prompted a round of dollar short covering. EUR-USD… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Recovers on Rising Interest Rates

OVERVIEW U.S. consumer spending rises more than forecast. British Pound weakens on domestic political risk. ECB’s Praet signals support for continuing stimulus as CPI still soft. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Recovers on Rising Interest Rates

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 29, 2018

The dollar has found a toehold, either holding steady or posting gains versus its main peers. EUR-USD has been plying a narrow range in the lower 1.2400s, off from last Thursday’s 37-month high at 1.2537. USD-JPY, after last week posting a four-month low at 108.28, has been oscillating with 108.51 and 109.05 so far today…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 29, 2018

The dollar has opened the week on a consolidative footing after tumbling to fresh trend lows last week. EUR-USD has been plying a narrow range in the lower 1.2400s, off from last Thursday’s 37-month high at 1.2537. USD-JPY, after last week posting a four-month low at 108.28, has been oscillating with 108.51 and 108.99 so… Read more »

US Economic Week in Review: The US Economy Is Looking Good

            The U.S. is currently hitting on all cylinders.  Friday’s GDP report showed consistently modest growth.  The Conference Board’s leading indicators point towards continued expansion, as do 1-unit building permits and the 4-week moving average of initial unemployment claims.  All of the coincidental numbers are also rising.  While housing is… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: The Bond Markets Are in Great Shape

                     What part of the curve is the primary culprit in a yield curve contraction?   History shows it’s usually the short-end: Source: XE news feed US Bond Market Week in Review: The Bond Markets Are in Great Shape

International Economic Week in Review: Big Week For Central Banks

            Since the beginning of the year, all three major global trading groups (the IMF, the World Bank and the OCED) have observed that the global economy is in its best shape since.  Not to be outdone, the NY Times recently made the same observation in a piece titled, “It’s… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: what's going on with rail and steel? edition

The most noted data this week was that in the rear view mirror, Q4 GDP continued to increase at a rate approaching 3% annualized in the initial estimate. Capex and residential investment increased nicely, while inventories slackened. Source: XE news feed Weekly Indicators: what’s going on with rail and steel? edition

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 26, 2018

The dollar was dented briefly by the early mix of data, where Q4 GDP came in a bit under expectations. From there, U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin clarified his “weak dollar” comments from earlier in the week, which mostly put a floor under the greenback. EUR-USD topped at 1.2457 early, later easing to 1.2408 lows. USD-JPY… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Dollar Volatility Continues Comments

OVERVIEW Dollar all over the show has conflicting comments from US government officials. UK GDP surprises at 0.5% for the final quarter of 2017. ECB member says recent public noise on currency rates is proving unhelpful.   HIGHLIGHT The US Dollar continues to be extremely volatile as conflicting comments are made by the US Treasury Secretary… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 26, 2018

The dollar traded at softer levels after correcting a good chunk of the gains seen late yesterday after Trump said that he “ultimately” would prefer a strong dollar. EUR-USD settled in the mid 1.24s, up from the post-Trump low at 1.2364, but well off yesterday’s 37-month peak at 1.2537. Remarks from ECB’s Coeure that there… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 26, 2018

The dollar has ebbed back some after rallying after the London close yesterday at the prompt of Trump, who said from Davos that he favoured a strong dollar “ultimately.” EUR-USD settled around 1.2250, up from the post-Trump low at 1.2364. USD-JPY retreated to around 109.00, down from 109.77. The dollar has seen a similar ebb… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Euro Soars After Draghi's Limited FX Comments

OVERVIEW EUR hits fresh 3-year highs. The fallout from US Treasury Secretary’s comments on USD continues, despite attempts to clarify. British Pound trade-weighted index rises to 19-month high.  New Zealand Dollar slips after inflation slowed unexpectedly. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Euro Soars After Draghi’s Limited FX Comments

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 25, 2018

The dollar was smacked down again in N.Y. morning trade on Thursday, taking the DXY to trend lows of 88.45. An upbeat ECB press conference lifted EUR-USD to multi-year highs of 1.2537, while USD-JPY touched 108.50. USD-CAD touched four month lows of 1.2283, while cable hit 19-month highs of 1.4345. Part of the morning’s losses… Read more »

December housing summary: sales and prices accelerate

With this morning’s release of new home sales for December, we have a good picture of the housing market through the end of 2017, with the caveat that the Census Bureau’s report on median asking rent for the 4th Quarter will not be released until next Tuesday.   Source: XE news feed December housing… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 25, 2018

The logged fresh lows in Asia before settling during in London trading. EUR-USD logged a 37-month high of 1.2459, extending the rally seen this week from the low 1.2200s, before settling in the lower 1.2400s into the ECB announcement. ECB policy is in sharp focus with market participants looking for further confirmation that the central… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 25, 2018

Another day, another tumble in the dollar. The USD index (DXY) clocked a new low at 88.81, which is the lowest levels since January 2014. EUR-USD is up for a fourth straight day, logging a fresh 37-month high at 1.2459 before settling around 1.2425. USD-JPY is down for a third straight day, this time logging… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Dollar Slumps After Treasury Secretary's Comments

OVERVIEW US Dollar is at 3-year low versus major counterparts after the Secretary of Treasury says the weaker Dollar is good. UK employment data very strong, with GBP outperforming. EUR stands at 3-year highs, PMIs show businesses ramped up activity in January.  US home sales fell more than expected in December while prices rose. HIGHLIGHT … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 24, 2018

The DXY was crushed to 89.20 lows in N.Y. trade on Wednesday, levels last seen in December of 2014. Selling kicked off in earnest after U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin’s Davos comments, where he said a weak dollar is good for U.S. exports. EUR-USD topped at 1.2411 after opening at 1.2340, while USD-JPY slid to 108.95… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 24, 2018

The dollar has come under fresh pressure. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) traded at fresh three-year lows, logging a nadir at 89.61 and bringing the cumulative loss on the year so far to 13%. EUR-USD logged a 37-month high of 1.2356, while USD-JPY traded below 110.00 for the first time since last September, posting… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 24, 2018

The dollar has come under fresh pressure. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) traded at fresh three-year lows, logging a nadir at 89.83 and bringing cumulative loss on the year so far to 13%. EUR-USD logged a 37-month high of 1.2335, while USD-JPY traded below 110.00 for the first time since last September, posting a… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 23, 2018

The dollar came under renewed pressure in N.Y. on Tuesday, with the DXY hitting a three-plus year low of 90.07. EUR-USD topped at 1.2306 after opening near 1.2235, while USD-JPY touched 110.26, after peaking at 111.17 post-BoJ meeting. USD-CAD traded a narrow range in the mid-1.24s, while cable printed new post-Brexit vote highs of 1.4027.[EUR,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 23, 2018

The dollar trading mostly firmer in the wake of the U.S. funding deal that ended three day’s of government shutdown, although the impact was muted. The USD index (DXY) lifted out of a three-day low at 90.29 to a 90.53 high before settling just under 93.50. EUR-USD posted an intraday low at 1.2223, before recouping… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 23, 2018

The dollar gained on the Senate vote that ended the three-day government shutdown in the U.S. Gains have been moderate. The USD index (DXY) lifted out of a three-day low at 90.29 to 90.53, while EUR-USD tumbled by about 30 pips in making a low at 1.2238, subsequently settling around 1.2250, a level that the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 22, 2018

The dollar was steady in N.Y. morning trade on Monday, as dealers largely sat on their hands ahead of the Senate funding vote. Once it became clear the measure would pass, the greenback rallied modestly across the board. EUR-USD fell from session highs of 1.2260 to 1.2225 before bouncing some, while USD-JPY topped at 111.22… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Soft as Government Shutdown Continues

OVERVIEW US Dollar weak amid Washington divisions. IMF revises up global growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019. Canadian wholesale trade rises for a second straight month. Investors appear unfazed by US politics with equity markets up slightly.  HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Soft as Government Shutdown Continues

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 22, 2018

The dollar dipped at the open of Asia-Pacific dealings on concerns about the government shutdown in the U.S, but subsequently recovered losses. EUR-USD popped about 50 pips high, logged a peak at 1.2274 before ebbing back to near net unchanged levels around 1.2225. USD-JPY’S low was 110.52 before the pair lifted to an intraday peak… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 22, 2018

The dollar dipped at the open of Asia-Pacific dealings on concerns about the government shutdown in the U.S, but subsequently recovered losses. EUR-USD popped about 50 pips high, logged a peak at 1.2274 before ebbing back to near net unchanged levels around 1.2225. USD-JPY’S low was 110.52 before the pair lifted to an intraday peak… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: The Good News Continues

            The overall tenor of international news is still positive.  While UK retail sales are slowing, they are still up modestly Y/Y.  Although EU news was slightly weaker than we’ve been used to over the last few months, this week’s data has been weak for most of this expansion.  Australis… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: Don't Expect Rates to Increase That Much

            Starting in the early 1980s, the bond market has had one of the longest bull markets in the history of markets.  This is largely due to Paul Volcker having the courage to raise interest rates to oppressive levels in the early 1980s, eventually wringing most inflationary pressure out of the U.S. Source: XE… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: jump in interest rates overshadows new low in jobless claims edition

December data included housing permits, which rose slightly, and the more volatile starts, which declined sharply. Industrial production and capacity utilization both rose. Consumer sentiment about the present as measured by the University of Michigan declined, while sentiment about the future rose.    Source: XE news feed Weekly Indicators: jump in interest rates overshadows… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 19, 2018

The DXY managed modest gains in N.Y. on Friday, moving to 90.63 highs from 90.39 lows early in the session. The Softer Michigan sentiment report had little impact, nor sis prospects for about a 50-50 change of a U.S. government shut down (as of the time of this writing). EUR-USD eased from 1.2275 highs to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Dollar Recovers Slightly as Government Shutdown Looms

OVERVIEW UK retail sales disappoint. US consumer confidence weakens for a 3rd straight month. Canadian manufacturing sales post the biggest increase in 2.5 years. Fears over US government shutdown drive risk aversion. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Dollar Recovers Slightly as Government Shutdown Looms

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 19, 2018

The USD index (DXY) has tracked lower despite new U.S. yield lows, with the narrow trade-weighted index down 0.3% at 90.20, bringing Wednesday’s 37-month low to within 6 ticks. Yield gains across the globe, coupled with a burgeoning global risk-on sentiment and an associated investor hunt for higher-beta assets, along with concerns that the stopgap… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 19, 2018

The dollar has traded softer on U.S. political concerns, though has remained above recent trend lows versus the yen, euro and most other currencies. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) is down 0.2%, making a low at 90.33 and swinging the 37-month low of Wednesday at 90.14 back into scope. The House of Reps passed… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 18, 2018

The dollar edged out fresh recovery highs versus the euro and other currencies. EUR-USD logged a four-session low of 1.2165 before recouping to around 1.2200. The move reflected a dollar dynamic, with EUR-JPY and other euro crosses having held relatively steady today, even though the airing of concerns about the common currency’s ascent by some… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Loonie Volatile as Bank of Canada Announces Rate Hike

OVERVIEW EUR weaker after ECB policymaker’s comments and inflation. GBP hit a fresh high overnight. USD soft despite strong industrial production and housing data. Bitcoin slump continues, and its value is now half of its peak last month. HIGHLIGHT The Canadian Dollar saw some wild swings as the Bank of Canada announced it was raising… Read more »

Industrial production, retail sales complete strong quarter

By now I’m sure you’ve read elsewhere that industrial production rose strongly in December.  That’s certainly true, and to put it in perspective, here is the overall number (red) together with manufacturing (blue) and mining (including oil and gas) ( green):  Source: XE news feed Industrial production, retail sales complete strong quarter

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 17, 2018

The USD index (DXY) has lifted out a of a fresh low that was seen early in the Asia-Pacific session at 90.14. That is the lowest level seen since December 2014, and was the culmination of a 13.2 decline from the high seen in January 2017. The low also marks about a 55% retracement of… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 17, 2018

The dollar staged a bounce after posting fresh lows versus the yen, euro, and a number of other currencies during the early part of the Tokyo session. USD-JPY posted a new four-month low at 110.19, completing a run of seven consecutive down sessions, before recouping to the upper 110.0s. The price action was similar to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 16, 2018

The dollar was relatively steady in N.Y. trade on Tuesday, seeing the DXY crawl up to 90.82 highs, before pulling back to 90.57 lows. A softer headline Empire State index outcome had little impact. EUR-USD bottomed at 1.2196 early in the session, before topping at 1.2248. USD-JPY meanwhile, held above 110.60, peaking at 110.88 early… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: A Very Mixed Day Today for Currencies

OVERVIEW Euro drops as ECB looks set to stick to its pledge on the QE program. Sterling dips as UK inflation dropped to 3%.  Bitcoin slumps up to 18% on regulatory crackdown rumors.  HIGHLIGHT There is nothing to highlight for today’s Currency Market Analysis! US DOLLAR The US Dollar has clawed back some of the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 16, 2018

The euro dropped quite sharply on political concerns in Germany, with some SPD factions reportedly uncertain, or in outright rejection, of proposals to form a grand coalition. This has rattled EUR-USD and euro crosses, which have been aggressively bid in recent sessions. EUR-USD dove by about 70 pips in making a low of 1.2201. EUR-JPY… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 16, 2018

The dollar has settled above yesterday’s trend lows. EUR-USD has been making time in a narrow range below yesterday’s 37-month peak at 1.2296 while USD-JPY has lifted to the upper 110.0s after opening in Tokyo just under 110.50, above yesterday’s four-month low at 110.33. There were some remarks of disquiet about yen strength from both… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Slumps To 3-Year Low

OVERVIEW Broad-based Dollar weakness continues. Euro adds to gains after a 3-year high reached on Friday. GBP is rising in tandem with EUR. BoJ Governor sounds upbeat on growth, Japanese Yen hits a 4-month high. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Slumps To 3-Year Low

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 15, 2018

The dollar has continued to skid lower, with the narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) down for a fourth straight day, presently showing a 0.6% decline so far today. The index has logged a 36-month low of 90.39, and only has to breach 90.33 to make it a 37-month low. The dollar has weakened in every… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 15, 2018

.The dollar posted fresh lows versus the euro, sterling and yen, among other currencies, before rebounding some. Friday’s hotter than expected U.S. CPI data, and decent retail sales data, which were followed-up by relatively hawkish remarks from Fed member Rosengren, who said that he now favours more than three 25 bp rate hikes this year,… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: 2018 Is Starting Off Well

            Earlier this week, the OECD released their latest general assessment of world economy.  The report noted that this was the best year for global growth since the Great Recession with the expansion synchronizing across countries.  But while more countries are now growing (left chart), the pace of per capita growth… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: Bond Market Potpourri

            Rather than have a longer, common theme to this week’s column, I have several smaller stories.  Hence, “Bond Market, Potpourri.” The Big Sell-off in the 10-Year Source: XE news feed US Bond Market Week in Review: Bond Market Potpourri

US Economic Week in Review: Strong Retail Sales and Modest Inflationary Pressures

            This week was light on the U.S. economic news front; there were only two releases of import: retail sales and CPI.             Retail sales were strong: they increased .4% M/M and 5.4% Y/Y.  Ex-auto, the numbers were .4% and 6.3% respectively.  Here’s the data in graph form: Source: XE news feed US Economic… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Sterling Surges on Rumors of Soft Brexit

OVERVIEW The Euro hit a three year high against the US Dollar in early trade on successful German coalition. The Pound hit its highest level against the Dollar since the Brexit Referendum. Canadian central bank interest rate hike probability hits 86%. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Sterling Surges on Rumors of Soft… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 12, 2018

The dollar perked up briefly following warmer U.S. core CPI and solid retail sales figures, though as has been the case for a month, sellers quickly took charge. EUR-USD had fallen to 1.2111 lows after the data, though later vaulted to three-plus year highs of 1.2157. USD-JPY bounced from opening lows of 111.15 to a… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 12, 2018

The euro rallied to fresh highs on news of a breakthrough in coalition talks in Germany, which followed yesterday’s ECB minutes, which many interpreted as being hawkish. EUR-USD traded above 1.2700 for the first time since December 2014, and EUR-CHF also forayed into 37-month high territory. The dollar bore the brunt of euro buying, and… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 12, 2018

The dollar has remained on a softening tack, with the narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) extending yesterday’s declines from levels around 92.50 to a 91.75 low today,, which matches the four-month low that was posted on January 2. The greenback has logged fresh lows versus the euro, sterling and Australian dollar, among other currencies, in… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 11, 2018

The dollar took an early hit on Thursday in N.Y. trade, as ECB minutes said the Bank could change its guidance in early 2018 if the EU economy continues to expand. Incoming U.S. data missed the mark, weighing further on the USD, as jobless claims were higher than expected, and PPI cooler than forecasts. EUR-USD… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Euro Spikes as ECB Signals Guidance Shift

OVERVIEW ECB minutes spark speculation over QE program. Chinese authorities deny reports on US debt purchases. USD back under pressure after PPI falls. AUD rallies after strong retail sales. CAD weaker on NAFTA concerns. Oil surges to highest since 2014 as OPEC say output cuts will continue. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market… Read more »