Category: Financial Markets

Financial markets news from external sources.

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jun 01, 2017

The dollar has traded modestly firmer, on net, against most currencies. EUR-USD ebbed during the European AM to the 1.1220-30 area after logging a 1.1256 one-week high in Asia. USD-JPY floated back above 111.00 after making a two-week low yesterday at 110.48 and closing in New York at 110.76. Cable tipped to an intraday low… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jun 01, 2017

Weakness in the Aussie dollar drove AUD-USD to a three-week low at 0.7384. Disappointing capex data out of Australia was the catalyst of Aussie selling, as it undershot expectations with 0.3% growth in the headline figure. The median forecast had been for a 0.8% rise. An unexpected 0.1% decline in the machinery and equipment investment… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 31, 2017

The dollar gave back modest overnight gains in N.Y. on Wednesday, taking the DXY to seven session lows of 96.86. EUR-USD topped at 1.1252, coming from session lows of 1.1212 at the open. A softer risk backdrop kept USD-JPY under pressure, with that pairing falling to two-week lows of 110.49, and down from over 110.90…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: British Pound Recovers on Latest Election Polls

OVERVIEW The flash estimate of Eurozone CPI for May showed the rise in consumer prices slowed more than expected to 1.4% year-on-year, from 1.9% in April. German retail sales are disappointing, declining unexpectedly on both a monthly and an annual basis in April, raising concerns that a recent pickup in consumption may be starting to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 31, 2017

The dollar came under broad pressure during the latter part of the European AM session. The narrow USD index gave up intraday gains and was showing a net 0.2% decline, as of the early European PM, and logged a three-day low at 97.04. EUR-USD lifted, despite sub-forecast Eurozone inflation data, out of a 1.1164 low… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 31, 2017

Sterling took a 0.5% clobber on a UK election poll form YouGov suggesting that the support for the Tory party had fallen again, to the point that the governing party would loose its majority at the June-8 election and leave Britain with a hung parliament (with the Tories at 310 seats, down from the 330… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 30, 2017

The dollar was mostly lower through the N.Y. session, largely giving back overnight gains. EUR-USD popped to 1.1193 highs into the open, as Reuters reported a “source” piece saying the ECB would upgrade EU economic forecasts at its June meeting. The pairing faded on decent U.S. income and consumption data, though rallied to session highs… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: U.S. Consumer Spending Rises

OVERVIEW Markets are back to full strength after the long weekend in the U.S. and the UK, with stock markets in negative territory from talk of early Italian elections. U.S. personal consumption expenditure price index slowed to 1.5% last month, dropping further from the Fed’s 2% target. Reuters reported that unnamed sources at the European… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 30, 2017

The dollar has traded mostly softer today after generally rising yesterday. The yen has continued to outperform, aided by positive Japanese data and flagging risk appetite in global markets. The euro came under broad pressure from late yesterday through to the early session in Europe today before rebounding. EUR-USD settled to near net unchanged levels… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 30, 2017

The euro has under particular pressure, with the common currency showing a 0.5% loss to the dollar and a 0.8% decline versus the yen as the London interbank market joins the fray. The move reflects a sharpening in Eurozone-centric concerns. Former Italian PM Renzi suggested that Italy should hold a general election as soon as… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: Who Are the Hawks and Doves, part 2

     Last week, I discussed the views of 4 Federal Reserve presidents to discern their current interest rate policy.  This week’s column finishes that analysis.  I would like to offer a personal thanks to Minneapolis Federal Reserve president Neel Kashkari who responded to a Twitter question and pointed me to his latest essay on… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: stock prices and jobless claims lead the way

April data included new and existing home sales, both down m/m, but new home sales for March were revised higher to a new post-recession record. Durable goods also declined, but March was also revised substantially higher. House prices increased. Wholesale inventories decreased. University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment declined slightly.   Source: XE news feed … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 26, 2017

The dollar firmed up in N.Y. trade on Friday, aided by an upgraded U.S. Q1 GDP revision, and subsequent short covering into the long Memorial Day weekend . EUR-USD gave up the 1.1200 handle early on, dropping to 1.1160 before turning sideways near 1.1175. USD-JPY rallied over 1.1200, though was largely tied to its 50-day… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: British Pound Slides on Latest Election Poll

OVERVIEW Japanese consumer prices rose just 0.4% annualized last month, underscoring the challenges the Bank of Japan still faces. U.S. Q1 GDP was revised up slightly more than expected to 1.2%, annualized from 0.7% that was initially estimated. U.S. durable goods orders fell 0.7% in April which was less than forecast though core orders unexpectedly… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 26, 2017

The dollar has traded mostly softer so far today, losing most ground to an outperforming yen, while managing gains versus an underperforming pound. USD-JPY saw a low of 110.89 after a 50-odd-pip tumble since the London open, extending declines from Wednesday’s nine-day peak at 112.12. Yen crosses are also down, most notably AUD-JPY, which was… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 26, 2017

USD-JPY and yen crosses traded lower as the Japanese currency outperformed amid a mostly risk-off backdrop in the Asia-Pacific region today. This was sparked by a hefty drop in oil prices after OPEC and allies delivered the well anticipated nine-month extension to the prevailing volume reduction in supply. USD-JPY logged a two-session low at 111.40,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 25, 2017

The dollar ended the N.Y. session not far from where it started, with major pairings largely holding inside of narrow ranges. Mixed data including slightly lower jobless claims and a slightly wider advance trade deficit has little market impact. Wall Street rallied, though the plunge in oil prices after OPEC extended output production capped gains… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Sterling Slumps as UK Growth Revised Down for Q1

OVERVIEW  Pound slides across the board as UK Q1 GDP is revised lower. FOMC minutes show current approach appropriate, and futures still show a 100% chance of a rate hike in June. The Euro is solid against majors, and momentum from ‘no taper’ comments remains. South African Reserve Bank leaves interest rates unchanged at 7%…. Read more »

Positive trend in new and existing home sales remains intact

Now that we have both new and existing home sales as well as last week’s housing permits and starts, a clearer picture of the state of the market appears. Source: XE news feed Positive trend in new and existing home sales remains intact

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 25, 2017

The dollar found its feet after posting fresh post-FOMC minutes lows during the early part of European trading. USD-JPY rose to the 111.90 area, up from the post-FOMC minutes low at 111.48. EUR-USD logged a two-session high at 1.1250 during the London AM session before ebbing into the low 1.12s. The pair still remained comfortably… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 25, 2017

The dollar has been trading softer since the minutes to the recent FOMC meeting were releases, showing that Fed to be of a cautious mind-set, that it would be prudent to wait for evidence that recent weak data is transitory before raising rates again. The narrow USD index is off its lows by still showing… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Canadian Dollar Rallies As Central Bank Keeps Rates On Hold

OVERVIEW Markets are in a typically quiet trading session ahead of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting. Moodyís downgraded Chinaís debt rating, citing rising debt levels; the outlook was revised to negative as well. Existing home sales in the US fell more than expected last month, but remained close to their highest levels… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 24, 2017

The dollar trended a bit higher through the N.Y. morning session on Wednesday, though was smacked lower in the aftermath of the FOMC minutes as the Fed indicated caution, saying it would be prudent to wait for evidence that recent weak data is transitory before raising rates again. EUR-USD bottomed at 1.1180 before rallying to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 24, 2017

The dollar has been trading mixed today, gaining and then ebbing versus the yen, recouping some lost ground versus the euro and sterling, and trading softer versus the Canadian dollar, which has been buoyed by fresh one-month highs in the price of crude. EUR-USD logged a two-session low at 1.1170, putting in some distance from… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 24, 2017

The dollar has rebounded some. The narrow USD index, which on Monday logged a six-month low at 96.70 has repaired above 97.30. EUR-USD has logged a two-session low at 1.1171, putting in some distance from yesterday’s two-month. USD-JPY clocked a 5-sesison high of 112.03. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses have traded relatively steadily. Most stock… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 23, 2017

The dollar was mostly higher in N.Y. trade on Tuesday, taking the DXY off its 6-month lows of 96.80 seen on Monday, to a high of 97.35. The greenback turned a bit softer after weak U.S. new home sales, though recovered broadly into the London close. EUR-USD came from 1.1249 highs to a low of… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Shocks Remain After Horrific Attack in Manchester

OVERVIEW  Markets were shocked by the suicide attack in Manchester where lots of children were enjoying an Ariana Grande concert. Sterling trades toward the bottom end of its 1.15 range against the Euro. The Euro remains as the favored currency backed up by robust economic data. The US Dollar continues to trade under pressure as… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 23, 2017

The dollar remained on softening tack, posting, for instance, a fresh six-month low versus the euro and one-month lows versus the Canadian dollar. USD-JPY remained relatively steady, chopping around 111.00. EUR-USD’s trend peak is at 1.1268. A slew of data releases out of the Eurozone today included strong May German Ifo business conditions survey and… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 23, 2017

The dollar majors have been in consolidation mode so far today. USD-JPY has settled to an oscillation around the 111.00 level, lower on the day, concomitantly with a mostly-bearish session across Asian stock markets today. A three-session low was logged at 110.86. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses saw a similar price action. EUR-USD has drifted… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 22, 2017

FX trade was fairly quiet in N.Y. to start the week, though the dollar overall remained under pressure. There was no U.S. data to move markets, though Wall Street managed decent gains, while yields were marginally higher. EUR-USD opened near 1.1230, later topping at 1.1263 before succumbing to minor profit taking. USD-JPY topped at 111.40… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 22, 2017

The euro picked up demand after a bout of weakness in the early London session. EUR-USD rallied to a fresh six-month high of 1.1235, over 80 pips up on the intraday low. EUR-JPY, EUR-GBP and other euro crosses also rose, while the narrow USD index, which has a close inverse correlation with EUR-USD, ebbed to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 22, 2017

The dollar has lifted moderately against most currencies in early-week trading following its biggest weekly loss in 13 months. The narrow USD index is showing a 0.2% gain, at 97.17, up from Friday’s six-month low at 96.97. EUR-USD has ebbed back under the 1.1200 level, down from Friday’s six-month peak at 1.1211. USD-JPY lifted moderately… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: 2017 is Looking to be a Good Year

     In the last 6-9 months, international data has turned more bullish.  Not only has the overall strength of numbers increased, but economies have better absorbed adverse shocks.  Recent increases in the Markit Economics sentiment indicators along with consistent GDP growth all point to a growing EU.  Just as importantly, the region has absorbed… Read more »

US Equity and Economic Review: A Moderately Growing Economy and an Expensive Market

     The US leading indicators rose .3% with 8/10 indicators contributing to the increase.  More importantly, the rolling 6-month rate of change continues to increase (bottom table in red): All 4 components of the coincident indicator index rose, meaning this indicator points towards moderate but consistent growth (above table in green).  The release concluded: … Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: Who Are the Hawks and Doves, Part 1?

     There are nine voting members on the Fed.  The next two columns will be devoted to ascertaining each voting members position on rate hikes.          Fed Chair Yellen is now in the rate increase camp: Source: XE news feed US Bond Market Week in Review: Who Are the Hawks and Doves, Part… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: the yield curve tightens edition

April data included an increase in the index of Leading Indicators, despite the fact that both housing permits and starts declined.  Industrial production and capacity utilization both increased strongly.   Source: XE news feed Weekly Indicators: the yield curve tightens edition

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 19, 2017

The dollar was mostly lower in N.Y. trade on Friday, leaving the DXY at six month lows of 97.09. EUR-USD led the charge, as it topped 1.1210. USD-JPY was supported by risk-on conditions, though struggled over the 111.50 mark, which represents the 50-day moving average. Cable rallied to 1.3040 highs, though was unable to take… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar on Track for the Worst Week In 10 Months

OVERVIEW Markets have turned more positive as we head towards the weekend although the US Dollar remains under pressure. Canadian inflation was steady last month with CPI rising 1.6% year-on-year, just below forecasts of 1.7%. Canadian retail sales beat expectations rising 0.7% in March driven by strong sales of new cars. The British Pound’s slide… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 19, 2017

The dollar has given back nearly all of yesterday’s gain, with the narrow USD index presently showing a 0.4% decline at 97.35, down from the high seen during the New York PM session at 97.97. Yesterday’s low is at 97.28, which is the lowest level seen since the U.S. presidential election last November. EUR-USD has… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 19, 2017

The dollar has ebbed back some in Asian trade today after rallying after the London close yesterday amid reports, cited by the Zerohedge website, of a May 3 video of FBI’s Comey suggesting there was no obstruction of justice from the Trump administration. The narrow USD index spiked over 0.5% on the news, to a… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 18, 2017

The dollar had been fairly steady through the N.Y. morning session, finding its feet to a degree. After the London close, however, the greenback rallied broadly, the move apparently prompted by a circulated Comey video, which seemed to let president Trump off the hook with regards to the Russia story, saying he was never pressured… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Pound Jumps to an 8-Month High

OVERVIEW Risk aversion remains the main theme in markets which have reacted negatively to news of a special counsel investigation on Russian interference in the US presidential election. European stock markets are down around 1% after US stock markets suffered their biggest daily declines since Donald Trump’s victory.  The number of Americans receiving unemployment aid… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 18, 2017

The yen continued to rally as the risk-off theme continued, while the dollar saw fresh lows against a range of currencies, though managed to subsequently lift somewhat against some. The pound, along with the Japanese currency, was another outperformer, led by a spike in Cable above recent trend highs and the 1.3000 level following strong… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 18, 2017

The dollar steadied after posting fresh lows as the “Trump trade” unwind continued after the New York close. The main equity indicies in Asia fell, taking their cur from Wall Street amid concerns that the Trump growth agenda is in jeopardy. USD-JPY losses extended for a second day. A three-week low was made at 110.52… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 17, 2017

The dollar took it on the chin in N.Y. trade on Wednesday, with U.S. political concerns keeping risk taking levels well-contained. Gold soared, yields fell, and Wall Street was hit hard following reports that Trump asked then FBI chief Comey to call off the investigation into former NSA head Flynn and his Russian dealings. The… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Trump Headlines Drive Risk Aversion

OVERVIEW Markets have become increasingly risk averse as the Trump-Comey saga unfolds with revelations that the President urged the former FBI director to drop an investigation into former NSA director Flynn. Eurozone inflation for last month was unchanged from the flash estimate at 1.9% in line with the ECB’s target, while core inflation remains way… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 17, 2017

The dollar saw fresh lows in the early London session against the euro, yen and a number of other currencies, amid concerns about Trump’s leadership. EUR-USD rose to a fresh six-month high of 1.1122, the pair’s highest level since the U.S. presidential election last November, before settling just south of 111.00, still well up on… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 17, 2017

The dollar is trading softer against most currencies, particularly the yen with USD-JPY dropping quite sharply, from levels above 113.50 yesterday to a 12-day low today in Tokyo at 112.34. The narrow USD index has fallen for fourth consecutive session, making its lowest levels since last November’s presidential election. EUR-USD rose to a fresh six-month… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 16, 2017

The dollar sold off in N.Y. on Tuesday, taking the DXY to six-month lows of 98.11. Incoming U.S. data was mixed, with housing starts light of expectations, and industrial production beating consensus forecasts. EUR-USD rallied from opening lows of 1.1050 to six-month highs of 1.1097, while USD-JPY traded briefly under the 113.00 mark after starting… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Euro Jumps to Six-Month Highs

OVERVIEW There are more negative Trump-related headlines that are the focus of FX markets today, driving a weaker US Dollar. The Pound is lower despite UK consumer price inflation rising at its fastest pace in over three years in April. Germany’s ZEW survey rose to its highest since July 2015 as investor sentiment continued to… Read more »

Housing permits and starts: is this the turn?

The housing permits and starts report this morning was of particular significance.  I have been forecasting for months that there would be a downward turn sometime in the early part of this year due to the increase in mortgage rates that started last November.  The April report, together with some important revisions to previous months’… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 16, 2017

The euro has been in the ascendant today, while the pound turned abruptly lower following a brief post-data rally. EUR-JPY traded above 125.00 for the first time since late April last year, and EUR-USD broke higher, punching above 1.1000 and last week’s former trend peak at 1.1023 on route to a fresh six-month high as… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 16, 2017

The euro has continued to drift upward, with EUR-USD logging a nine-day high at 1.0987 just ahead of the London interbank open and EUR-JPY clocking a fresh one-year peak just shy of the 125.00 level. A combo of a risk-on backdrop and a sizable reduction in existential political risks in the Eurozone, post French election,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 15, 2017

The dollar was mostly higher in N.Y. trade on Monday, rising against the yen, pound and CAD, while losing modest ground to the euro. A soft Empire State index dented the greenback early on, though a better than forecast NAHB housing market index later helped the USD recover. EUR-USD opened near 1.0965 before rallying to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Commodity Prices Jump

OVERVIEW Chinese data pointed to a slowdown in growth last month as factory output, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment all slowed down more than expected. New Zealand retail sales grew at a much faster than expected pace in the first quarter, rising 1.5%. The Empire State survey showed activity unexpectedly shrank for the first time… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 15, 2017

The dollar traded mostly softer, though gained versus the yen, as the Japanese currency underperformed. Risk appetite was given a shot in the arm by a strong oil price rally, though the mood flatted somewhat after both the Germany’s DAX and the UK’s FTSE clocked new record highs. North Korean successfully launched a mid-range missile,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 15, 2017

The dollar saw an opening bout of weakness, which saw EUR-USD nudge higher and USD-JPY nudge lower, before a subsequent bout of EUR-JPY demand helped lift the latter pairing out its lows. EUR-JPY has rallied into the London interbank open, with the cross showing a 0.3% gain on the day and making a two-session peak… Read more »

US Equity and Economic Review: Housing Has Healed

     The housing crisis – or, more specifically, the huge increase in mortgage financing that provided the bubble’s fuel — caused the recession.  Reckless lending habits allowed consumers to take at excessive levels of debt, which increased housing demand and drove up housing prices to unsustainable levels.  Like all speculative bubbles, this one burst, leading… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: Rates Are Moving Higher

     There is no doubt that the Federal Reserve is in the process of raising rates.  The only question now is “when” and “how much.”  The latest “dot plot” from the latest Federal Reserve provides some general projections: Source: XE news feed US Bond Market Week in Review: Rates Are Moving Higher

Weekly Indicators: steady as she goes edition

April data included positive nominal and real retail sales, a surge in producer inflation, but mild consumer inflation. The University of Michigan’s initial May consumer confidence reading was generally unchanged.   Source: XE news feed Weekly Indicators: steady as she goes edition

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 12, 2017

The dollar fell broadly in N.Y. on Friday, with weaker U.S. retail sales and cooler core PPI weighing. EUR-USD opened at session lows of 1.0870, before making its way to 1.0934 highs into the London close. USD-JPY dropped from 113.90 to a four-day low of 113.20. USD-CAD followed the generally weaker dollar lower, basing at… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Falls as Soft Data Continues

OVERVIEW Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, grew 0.6% in the January-March period after remaining at 0.4% in the final three months of 2016. US retail sales and consumer price inflation both came in below market forecasts. Bank of Japan board member, Yutaka Harada, said the central bank must be “very careful” about exiting from its ultra-loose monetary… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 12, 2017

The dollar has steadied after four straight up days, with the narrow USD index having settled around the 99.50 mark so far today after clocking a three-week high at 99.68 yesterday. EUR-USD re-established itself above 1.0850 after logging an 18-day low at 1.0839 yesterday. USD-JPY remained heavy, though remained above the 113.46 low posted yesterday…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 12, 2017

The dollar has steadied after four straight up days, with the narrow USD index having settled around the 99.50 mark so far today after clocking a three-week high at 99.68 yesterday. The main U.S. indicies on Wall Street posted their biggest declines in three weeks yesterday, which appears to have taken some of the shine… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 11, 2017

The dollar perked up early in the N.Y. session on Thursday, reacting to hotter U.S. PPI figures, and a lower than forecast jobless claims outcome. USD gains were short-lived however, as risk-taking conditions deteriorated. Wall Street opened lower, with the market spooked by concerns the U.S. Russia investigation could derail progress on Trump’s economic agenda…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: NZ Dollar Slides After Central Bank Meeting

OVERVIEW The Bank of England left rates on hold at 0.25% as expected, with Kristen Forbes continuing to vote for a 0.25% increase. UK industrial and manufacturing production for March is disappointing, falling 0.5% and 0.6% respectively from February. The UK trade deficit pointed to weaker growth as it widened to £13.44bn and exports rose… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 11, 2017

EUR-USD settled above the two-week low logged late yesterday at 1.0853, which was the culmination of four straight sessions of declines. USD-JPY remained well bid after seeing a near two-month high at 114.37 late yesterday, with a bullish session across Asia stock markets keeping the yen on the offer. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses have… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 11, 2017

The dollar has remained broadly underpinned, with the narrow USD index clocking a three-week high. USD-JPY saw a new two-month high at 114.37 late yesterday and has since remained well bid, with a bullish session across Asia stock markets kept the yen on the offer. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses have been consolidating just off… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 10, 2017

FX trade was relatively light in N.Y. on Wednesday, leaving most major dollar pairings inside of narrow trading bands. USD-JPY found buyers after a softer 10-year Treasury auction, which saw U.S. yields rise. The pairing topped at 114.37, a new two-month high. EUR-USD was range bound over 1.0850, though USD-CAD was pushed into lows of… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Dollar Slips After FBI Director Firing

OVERVIEW Markets are recovering from an initial sell-off following news that FBI chief James Comey was fired. U.S. import prices rose 0.5% in April, beating expectations fora fifth straight monthly increase. Mario Draghi said the Eurozone economy is strengthening but that stimulus is still required. The meeting minutes of Sweden’s Riksbank reflected that members felt… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 10, 2017

EUR-USD has declined for a fourth straight session, this time logging a 12-day low at 1.0863. The euro has also traded softer against the yen and sterling, among other currencies, while the narrow USD index recovered from Asia-session weakness to log a fresh 19-day high. Markets have factored in Macron’s win at the French presidential… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 10, 2017

The dollar has traded modestly lower so far today, which some market narratives link with Trump’s firing of FBI Director Comey. USD-JPY settled back under 114.00 after clocking a two-month peak at 114.33 yesterday. The high caps an impressive winning streak, with the pair having climbed in every session bar three over the last three… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 09, 2017

The dollar firmed up in N.Y. trade on Tuesday, taking its cue from higher Treasury yields. There was little in the way of market moving U.S. data, though decent risk taking levels provided the greenback some support. EUR-USD topped at 1.0906 at mid-morning before slipping to an eight-session low of 1.0867 into the close. USD-JPY… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Fall of Australian Dollar Continues

OVERVIEW Markets are higher across Europe today as optimism over global growth drove investors towards equities and away from government bonds. German industrial output also pointed to robust economic activity as it rose 1.4% in the first quarter. The British Retail Consortium reported the strongest year-on-year growth in six years in April. Canadian building permits… Read more »

Senior Loan Officer Survey shows slight loosening, validating forecast of Chicago Fed indexes

Several weeks ago when I introduced coverage of the Chicago Fed’s Financial Conditions Indexes, ( http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2017/04/a-high-frequency-indicator-for-credi… ) I noted that they appeared to be a very good and much more timely proxy for the quarterly Senior Loan Officer Survey.  Here is the graph I used then: Source: XE news feed Senior Loan Officer Survey shows… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 09, 2017

The dollar traded broadly firmer. The narrow USD index was showing a 0.3% gain as of the early European PM session, trading at three-session highs. EUR-USD ebbed to a new post-French election correction low, at 1.0892, while the euro fared better against other currencies, foraying into seven-month high terrain above 1.0900 versus the Swiss franc,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 09, 2017

The dollar has been trading firmly so far today. USD-JPY edged out a fresh two-month peak at 113.39, with the pairing now racking up a fairly impressive winning streak, climbing in every session bar three over the last three weeks, lifting out of the six-month low that was posted at 108.12 in mid April. … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 08, 2017

The dollar firmed up in N.Y. trade on Monday, seeing EUR-USD pull back to 1.0924 lows, after topping at 1.1015 in early Asian dealings after the Macron win. Sell-the-news was in effect through to the London close. USD-JPY topped 113.05, a new six-week high, on improved risk appetite. USD-CAD rallied to 1.3733, as WTI crude… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Macron Victory a Major Focus

OVERVIEW Euro makes short-lived gains on the Macron victory in the French presidential election. The Sterling is set to have a run at the key 1.3000 resistance level against the US Dollar. The US Dollar is at 2017 lows against the Pound and Euro as risk appetite returns seeing the Dollar sold.    Source:… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 08, 2017

The euro retreated after seeing only a brief rally in the opening phases of trading in Asia Pacific following the well-anticipated victory of Macron in the runoff presidential election in France on Sunday. EUR-USD logged a peak of 1.1023, the first time the pairing has traded above the 1.10 level since last November, before an… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 08, 2017

The euro saw only a brief rally in the opening phases of trading in Asia Pacific following the well-anticipated victory of Macron in the runoff presidential election in France on Sunday. EUR-USD logged a peak of 1.1023, the first time the pairing has traded above the 1.10 level since last November. The pair has subsequently… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: Australia Remains Solid

     The French election is still the most important international economic story.  Macron is projected to win, but a now all too familiar last minute document hack occurring right before the final media blackout threw a potential wild card into the equation.  The EU potentially hangs in the balance: Le Pen has promised a… Read more »

US Equity and Economic Week in Review: 1Q Earnings Are Looking Good

     For the first times in recent memory, personal spending data is slightly concerning.  In the latest BEA report, personal consumption expenditures were flat for the second consecutive month and rose .3% in 2009 dollars:  Source: XE news feed US Equity and Economic Week in Review: 1Q Earnings Are Looking Good

US Bond Market Week in Review: Are Weaker Auto Sales Forecasting a Slower 2Q GDP and Employment Number?

     To no one’s surprise, on Wednesday the Federal Reserve maintained their current interest rate policy.  In the statement’s opening paragraph, they observe that the employment situation is strong and inflation is near their 2% target.  They also argue that, “… the slowing in growth during the first quarter as likely to be transitory and… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: negatives all but disappear edition

April data started out with a very positive employment report. Auto sales were neutral. ISM measures of both manufacturing and services were quite positive, although less so than March.    Source: XE news feed Weekly Indicators: negatives all but disappear edition

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 05, 2017

A solid April U.S. jobs report left the dollar mostly lower in N.Y. trade on Friday. Despite the data upping the odds for a June Fed rate hike, EUR-USD rallied to fresh six-month highs just shy of 1.1000. Pre-France election buying appeared to be the driver. Wall Street struggled to rally through the session, though… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: U.S. Unemployment Lowest in a Decade

OVERVIEW Markets were boosted by a strong US jobs number and oil prices have rebounded slightly from a 6-month low. BoJ governor Kuroda said he was confident inflation will accelerate “significantly” with massive monetary stimulus and fiscal support as the economy recovers. The Canadian economy created fewer jobs than expected last month, while the unemployment… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 05, 2017

The euro has corrected somewhat after logging fresh highs during the Asia session, a six-month high at 1.0990 in the case of EUR-USD, and a four-month peak at 123.67 in the case of EUR-JPY. The risk event that is the release of the U.S. April jobs report, later today, along with the natural desire for… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 05, 2017

The dollar has been trading mixed as today’s release of the April U.S. jobs report looms, falling against the yen and euro while gaining versus commodity currencies. Risk appetite has soured with oil prices dropping below $45 (for the firs time since last November) and with China taking efforts to de-bubble its property market (with… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 04, 2017

Mixed incoming U.S. data weighed on the dollar in N.Y. on Thursday, while the euro found strength from a poll putting Macron further ahead of LePen for the French presidency. EUR-USD rallied to near 6-month highs of 1.0979. USD-JPY meanwhile topped at a 6-week peak of 113.04, before falling into 112.40 on softer risk taking… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Fed Dismisses Weak Growth

OVERVIEW Eurozone service sector activity growth accelerated to a fresh six-year high in April.  The US trade deficit narrowed slightly in March as both imports and exports declined. The UK service sector unexpectedly saw activity growth increase last month. UK mortgage approvals fell to a six-month low in March as the housing market continues to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 04, 2017

The main event was a euro rally following the latest opinion poll out of France, with the Opinionway survey showing support for pro-EU Macron rising to 61% versus 39% for Le Pen, up from respective 60% and 40% readings in the prior survey. An upward nudge in final April Eurozone services PMI didn’t do the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 04, 2017

The dollar has been on the rise following the Fed’s statement yesterday, which noted that economic slowing in Q1 was “transitory” while affirming that it remains on track to tighten rates further. USD-JPY rallied to a six-week peak at 112.89, making today the fourth consecutive higher high on the daily chart. Favourable yield differentials have… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 03, 2017

The FX market was quiet through the morning session, with traders sidelined ahead of the FOMC announcement. The dollar initially rallied, then fell, then rallied again after the Fed, where there was no shift in policy, as expected. The statement indicated the Fed remains on track for a gradual pace of rate increases, and said… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Markets Waiting on Fed's Rate Decision

OVERVIEW Markets are quiet today as investors await the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The US non-manufacturing PMI jumped to 57.5 in April, beating expectations of 55.8. German unemployment fell by 15,000 and the unemployment rate remained at its lowest level since 1990. UK Brexit Minister David Davis dismissed reports in the Financial Times that… Read more »

Housing and cars: update for April

It’s time for a monthly update on houses, and let’s take a little look at vehicle sales as well.  If there is going to be a consumer downturn, generally the first thing that gets turns down is housing, over a year before the actual downturn, and then car sales, about 6 to 9 months before… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 03, 2017

The dollar majors have been lacking directional ambition into the Fed’s policy announcement later today, where Bloomberg calculates there is a 12.8% chance for a 25 bp rate hike. EUR-USD settled moderately lower after eking out a three-session peak at 1.0936 during a thin, holiday-affected Asia session (markets in Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 03, 2017

The dollar majors have been plying narrow ranges into the Fed’s policy announcement later today, where Bloomberg calculates there is a 12.8% chance for a 25 bp rate hike. EUR-USD eked out a three-session peak at 1.0936, and is presently settled near net unchanged on the day at 1.0921 bid. USD-JPY has settled to an… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 02, 2017

FX trade was again quiet in N.Y. on Tuesday, with narrow ranges the rule. There was little in the way of data to drive the market, and traders now will largely hunker down into the FOMC announcement on Wednesday, and the U.S. jobs report on Friday. EUR-USD idled between 1.0889 and 1.0917 through the day,… Read more »