Category: Financial Markets

Financial markets news from external sources.

XE Market Analysis: Brexit Deal Optimism Sends Sterling To 6-Month Highs

OVERVIEW Month-end sees volatility kick up a notch. USD under pressure due to Rex Tillerson’s leave. The Euro shrugs off weak inflation data. Australia Dollar is supported by strong economic data. US equity markets hit fresh record highs. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Brexit Deal Optimism Sends Sterling To 6-Month Highs

XE Market Analysis: North America – Nov 30, 2017

The dollar has mostly gained ground today after picking up bids during the European AM session. The buck logged an 11-day versus the yen, and recoup lost ground versus the euro and sterling, after seeing a two-month low in the case against the latter during Asian trading. Lower than expected inflation data out of the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Nov 30, 2017

Sterling continued has extended its ascent into a third day, with Cable punching out a fresh two-month high of 1.3480 and EUR-GBP plumbing a three-week low. Reports continue to point to a deal-in-the-works between the EU and the UK on the final financial settlement, and there is also raised hopes that an agreement will be… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Nov 29, 2017

The dollar started the N.Y. session on a firmer footing in early N.Y. trade on Wednesday, though later faded, taking the DXY to a low of 93.13 from session highs of 93.43. EUR-USD bounced from 1.1818 lows to top later at 1.1865, while USD-JPY faded to 111.69 from highs near 112.15. USD-CAD slipped early, basing… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Sterling Stronger on Rumored Breakthrough in Brexit Negotiation

OVERVIEW The Sterling leaped to a two-month high earlier today on renewed Brexit negotiation progress. The US Dollar slips on concerns of a shutdown in the US government after Democrats pull out of the meeting with the President. Cryptocurrency Bitcoin surges to another all-time high above $11,000. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Nov 29, 2017

The dollar lifted moderately in cautious trading as key data releases from the major economies loom on the near-horizon and with uncertainties prevailing with regard to the scope of Fed tightening ahead and U.S. fiscal policy. USD-JPY recovered from the two-month low seen late yesterday at 110.83, which followed a bout of safe haven demand… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Nov 29, 2017

Sterling has been the star performer, with markets responding to a story in the Telegraph newspaper reporting that the UK and the EU have agreed on a financial divorcing settlement, which could be up to GBP 55 bln, according to other sources. Despite a government source saying that “there is, as yet, no settlement” and… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Nov 28, 2017

The dollar was mixed in N.Y. trade on Tuesday, with some choppy price action noted in both USD-JPY and GBP-USD. The former fell to session lows of 111.06 from near 111.45 after a reported N. Korea missile test. Cable meanwhile, rocketed up to 1.3371 highs from 1.3235 after reports circulated that the EU and U.K…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Nov 28, 2017

The dollar lifted moderately in cautious trading as key data releases from the major economies loom on the near-horizon and with uncertainties prevailing with regard to the scope of Fed tightening ahead and U.S. fiscal policy. USD-JPY recovered from the two-month low seen late yesterday at 110.83, which followed a bout of safe haven demand… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Nov 28, 2017

The dollar has lifted moderately in cautious trading as key data releases from the major economies loom on the near-horizon and with uncertainties prevailing with regard to the scope of Fed tightening ahead and U.S. fiscal policy, and on the political front in Germany and Catalonia, along with the risk for the Irish border to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Remains Soft

OVERVIEW USD slipped to 2-month low, with recovers on new home sales. The Euro hits a 2-month high on hopes for a German ‘grand coalition’. Japanese Yen rises as the Chinese stock market fall prompts investor caution. The South African Rand is experiencing a volatile session (see featured currency). Source: XE news feed XE… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Nov 27, 2017

The dollar was mostly firmer in N.Y. trade on Monday, supported by better housing data, and hopes for a U.S. tax reform package, as the Sentate pushes to pass its version this week. EUR-USD eased back to 1.1898 lows after printing new 2-month highs of 1.1961 early in the session. USD-JPY was on the rise… Read more »

US Economic Week in Review: The Autopilot Economy Continues to Move Forward

            We continue to see healthy numbers from the economy.  While the LEIs increased smartly this month, we’ll more than likely see a slower but positive number next month.  The Census Bureau continues to report durable goods orders in the $220-$240 million/month range, indicating a steady demand.  The existing home… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: it's all about bond yields edition

The sparse October data in this short week included a big jump in leading indicators (heavily influenced by a bounce back in hurricane-related data, an increase in existing home sales, a decline in total durable goods, but an increase in core durable goods, and a decline in both the present and future outlook in the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Nov 24, 2017

FX trade was relatively quiet in N.Y. on Fridahy, with many traders remaining on holiday following Thursday’s Thanksgiving Day. The greenback was mostly lower however, pushing the DXY to a two-month base of 92.68. EUR-USD vaulted to 1.1944 highs, while cable touched seven-week highs of 1.2259. USD-CAD reversed lower ras oil prices remained firm, while… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Under Pressure as Euro Gains

OVERVIEW Quiet holiday-thinned trade has caused the US Dollar to hit 5-week lows. GBP supported by positive Brexit noises. CAD is quiet but oil prices are higher. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Under Pressure as Euro Gains

XE Market Analysis: North America – Nov 24, 2017

The dollar traded mixed today, losing ground to the euro and, to a lesser extent, the pound, while grinding higher versus the yen and Canadian dollar, amongst other currencies. Strong data out of the Eurozone, today and yesterday, fed a bid for the euro, while the dollar settled against other currencies today after underperforming yesterday… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Nov 24, 2017

The dollar has managed to find a footing, with USD-JPY recouping above 111.50, putting in a little distance from the two-month low seen at 111.06 during early trading yesterday. EUR-USD dipped under 1.1840 after earlier edging out a nine-day high of 1.1859. An evolving political crisis in Ireland seems to have encouraging some selling of… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Nov 23, 2017

The dollar has remained on a weakening track following soft data out of the U.S. yesterday, which was followed up by the minutes to the recent Fed policy meeting highlighting policymaker concern about the persistence of benign inflationary readings. EUR-USD rallied to an eight-day high of 1.1847 while the USD index (DXY) concomitantly fell to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Nov 23, 2017

The dollar has remained on a downward path. USD-JPY extended the sharp decline of yesterday, logging a two-month low of 111.06 in a thin Asia-Pacific session, lacking Tokyo participation due to Japan’s version of thanksgiving, before settling around the 111.30 mark. EUR-USD logged an eight-day high of 1.1839 while the USD index (DXY) concomitantly fell… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Nov 22, 2017

The dollar took it on the chin in N.Y. trade on Wednesday, taking the DXY to one-week lows of 93.44. Hawkish ECB speak from Coeure, who hinted at an end to QE in September next year. In addition, FX market jitters over Yellen comments on low inflation dented the dollar. EUR-USD topped at 1.1798 after… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: UK Budget Unveils Need for Increased Borrowing

OVERVIEW Chancellor Hammond plans to spend more over the next couple of years to offset the impact of Brexit. US consumer sentiment index dropped to 98.5 from 100.7 in October as we head towards the Thanksgiving holiday. The Euro demonstrates resilience despite the political uncertainty going into next year. HIGHLIGHT The UK budget gave first-time… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Nov 21, 2017

The dollar was mostly sideways in N.Y. trade on Tuesday. with U.S. players winding activity down into Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday. EUR-USD was contained to a 1.1714 to 1.1751 trading band, while USD-JPY dipped early to 112.18 on reported Japanese selling, before settling near 112. 35. USD-CAD steadied under 1.2800 on firmer oil prices, while cable… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Aussie Dollar Bounces on RBA Comments

OVERVIEW UK government borrowing slightly higher than expected. The Euro remains under pressure from German political situation. US home sales increased more than expected in October. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Aussie Dollar Bounces on RBA Comments

XE Market Analysis: North America – Nov 21, 2017

The main event today was market reactions to news on Sunday that talks to form a new coalition government in Germany had collapsed. The euro initially dove before rebounding, tracking German stock markets higher as markets fine tuned their response to the shifting political landscape in Germany following the collapse of coalition talks on Sunday…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Euro Weakens After German Coalition Talks Fail

OVERVIEW British Pound is higher after news on the weekend increased financial settlement. The US Dollar is recovering some ground, doubts remain on tax reform. The Euro is weaker as German political risk and Draghi both weigh. The Turkish Lira is down over 1%, adding to Friday’s losses. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE… Read more »

October housing permits and starts indicatte slowdown ending

Last week’s report on housing permits and starts was big news, because housing finally broke out to new highs, surpassing last winter’s numbers, after a slowdown for 9 months.  Source: XE news feed October housing permits and starts indicatte slowdown ending

International Economic Week in Review: The Synchronous Expansion Continues

            Global economic news from the OECD big seven continues showing a world economy with link synchronous growth.  The EU is entering its second year of above-trend growth.  There’s no reason to believe this trend will not continue for the next 3 to 6 months.  Japan is also enjoying strong… Read more »

US Economic Week in Review: The Economy Is Humming Along Nicely

            The good news for the U.S. is that its economy continues to expand at a strong rate.  This week, two coincident indicators – retail sales and industrial production – were released.  Both grew strongly.  After hurricane caused spikes, initial unemployment claims have returned to previously low levels.  While the… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: The Fed's Inflation Problem With Illustrations

            The Federal Reserve has an inflation problem.  No, inflation is not too hot.  In fact, it’s too cold.  More importantly, the Fed continues to rgue inflation will eventually hit and maintain 2%.  But the underlying trend says otherwise.              First, the PCE implicit price deflator is the Fed’s preferred… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: yield curve flatter but still positive edition

October data was almost all positive, including significant increases in housing permits and starts, a big jump in industrial production and capacity utilization, and increase in both nominal and real retail sales, and subdued consumer inflation. Producer prices did jump more than expected.   Source: XE news feed Weekly Indicators: yield curve flatter but… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Nov 17, 2017

The dollar attempted a modest rally after better U.S. housing starts data, though given the backdrop of White House Subpoenas and doubts over the ability of the GOP to pass tax reform, ultimately faded to near rlows of the week. Wall Street lost ground as gold rallied, leaving the risk backdrop very soggy to end… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Ends on a Weak Note

OVERVIEW US Dollar slips on a report that the Special Counsel subpoenaed Trump’s election campaign for documents. Canadian inflation drops to 1.4% and weakens the Loonie. US Dollar slips as investors watch for progress on tax reform bill. Bitcoin hits an all-time high on software upgrade rumors.  HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Nov 17, 2017

The dollar is lower on reports about the Trump administration having last month been served a subpoena from the special council Mueller requesting documents relating to Russia, according to the WSJ. Separately, the House Judiciary Committee sent a letter to the attorney of Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and senior advisor, asking for more information about… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Nov 17, 2017

The dollar has been trading mixed so far today, losing ground to the yen, euro and sterling, while gaining versus the Australian dollar, other dollar bloc currencies, and most emerging market units. USD-JPY was the biggest mover, logging a one-month low at 112.39. The mixed performance of the dollar follows a mixed set of data… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Nov 16, 2017

Generally soft incoming U.S. data weighed on the dollar early in the N.Y. session on Thursday, as import prices were soft, jobless claims higher than forecast, and the Philly Fed index falling more than expected. Stronger industrial production later supported the greenback, though it was later in the session that saw the unit move to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Euro Slips as Risk Appetite Returns

OVERVIEW US Dollar data continues to show that the economy is growing at a robust pace. The Euro is under pressure as wide and negative rate differentials back in focus.  Retail sales for the Pound fall for the first time in 4 years, with the Brexit tone upbeat. Canadian Dollar is lifted by manufacturing sales… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Nov 16, 2017

EUR-USD carved out a fresh low at 1.1767, breaching yesterday’s low by 1 pip and marking a 94 pip decline from yesterday’s one-month peak. The move largely reflected a bid for the dollar, a rebound following a several-day phase of underperformance, while the euro is trading mixed versus other currencies, firmer against the yen and… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Nov 16, 2017

The dollar has rebounded today after several days of losses against its main peers. USD-JPY led the way, tracking a rebound in risk appetite in Asian equity markets, aided by encouraging corporate earnings reports and a stabilization in oil and other commodity prices. The pair has logged an intraday high at 113.25, which is 2… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Tax Reform Doubts Weigh on Sentiment

OVERVIEW The US Dollar is broadly lower despite CPI tick up and retail sales beat. The Pound struggles to hold gains as the domestic political situation remains fragile. Euro adds to recent gains and fully recovers its fall since the ECB meeting. The Canadian Dollar is weaker alongside oil prices, and home prices fell sharply… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Nov 15, 2017

The yen has continued to outperform amid a sharpening risk-off theme in global markets. USD-JPY dove to a four-week low at 112.64, driven by safe haven demand for the Japanese currency. AUD-JPY, which can be seen as a forex market proxy on risk appetite, is showing the day’s biggest movement out of the currencies we… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Nov 15, 2017

The yen has been outperforming amid a sharpening risk off theme in global markets. USD-JPY has declined to a two-week low at 113.03, and EUR-JPY corrected recent gains in falling under 113.50. AUD-JPY, which can be seen as a forex market proxy on global investor risk appetite, has fallen by 0.9% in making three-month lows…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Nov 14, 2017

The dollar was pressured again in N.Y. on Tuesday, leaving the DXY at nearly three-week lows of 93.75. EUR-USD led the charge, rallying to 1.1805, a three-week high, while USD-JPY bottomed at 113.32, weighed down by risk-off conditions. USD-CAD printed one-week highs of 1.2773, as WTI crude fell over $1/bbl. Cable meanwhile, recovered from just… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Euro Rises as Economy Sets for Best Growth in a Decade

OVERVIEW The Pound is under pressure on an inflation undershoot. USD has mixed performance but is generally weaker with a little boost from stronger PPI. The Swedish Krona falls sharply after inflation cools. The Chinese Yuan economic data misses’ expectations, pointing to moderating growth.  Oil prices retreated modestly from last week’s peak but remain firm. … Read more »

Banks loosen lending, but firms are diffident about borrowing

The Fed released the Senior Loan Officer Survey last Monday, which is of particular interest because in its nearly 30 year history, it has been a good long leading indicator, and so has been added to my stable of same. Source: XE news feed Banks loosen lending, but firms are diffident about borrowing

XE Market Analysis: North America – Nov 14, 2017

The euro has rallied by 0.5% versus the dollar and yen, and by over 0.6% versus the pound. Eurozone data releases today that include above-forecast German GDP and a rise, albeit sub-forecast, in the November ZEW survey out of Germany, have helped underpin the shared currency. EUR-USD, which has logged a three-week high at 1.1725,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Nov 14, 2017

The dollar majors have been trading mixed, with EUR-USD opening in the London interbank market on a bid following above-forecast German GDP data, pushing to early-November highs near 1.1690, while USD-JPY has continued to flat-line around 113.60-65 — a directionless pattern that has been concomitant with relative stability in global stock markets. The NZ dollar… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Sterling and May Under Pressure

OVERVIEW Political concerns are weighing heavily on the Pound with Brexit risks increasing. US Dollar is quiet so far, sentiment looks slightly soft due to tax reform doubts. IMF says Europe’s growth is “stronger” and warns disruptive Brexit could result in “appreciably” lower growth.  Central bankers gather in Frankfurt to discuss the global economy and… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Nov 13, 2017

The dollar started the N.Y. week on a softer footing, though the DXY managed to edge slightly higher through the session. EUR-USD was capped under last week’s 1.1677 top, before turning sideways near 1.1660. USD-JPY managed modest gains as Wall Street erased early losses. USD-CAD firmed over 1.2740 as oil price gains seen recently began… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Nov 13, 2017

The dollar has been mostly firming in early-week trading, the main exception being the case against the yen, which has outperformed amid declines in most global stock markets. The narrow trade-weighted USD index(DXY) was showing a 0.2% gain, as of the late London AM session, at 94.61, earlier logging an intraday high at 94.64, which… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Nov 13, 2017

The dollar has been mixed in early-week trading so far, losing ground to an outperforming dollar while edging higher versus the euro and some other currencies, the pound in particular, which has come under general pressure amid political uncertainty. Most stock markets, outside China, came under pressure in Asia, following Wall Street’s lead, where investors… Read more »

US Economic Week in Review: The Economy is in Good Shape

            There was little economic news this week for the U.S., which makes this an appropriate time to review some leading and coincident indicators to assess the current situation in the U.S. economy.             Let’s start with corporate profits:   Source: XE news feed US Economic Week in Review:… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: The Fixed Income Market is Very Healthy

            This was a light week for U.S. bond market news.  There were no speeches of consequence, nor economic releases that have an impact on Fed policy.  But there were some interesting movements in the fixed income markets, especially in the high-yield area.  It seems appropriate to take a look… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Nov 10, 2017

The dollar remained under some pressure in N.Y. trade on Friday, alowing the DXY to print 12-session lows of 94.26, just above its 20-day moving average of 94.24. Wall Street was heavy as well, though yields held firm. Optimism over tax reform has faded this week, with House and Senate proposals still far away from… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Dollar Weakens on Tax Reform Doubts

OVERVIEW The Pound was boosted by better-than-expected data and Brexit comments. The Canadian Dollar is supported by a rise in oil prices and a weakening of the USD. South African Rand falls to a one-year low as fears mount over the country’s debt. Mexican Peso firms after the central bank signaled it would not cut… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Nov 10, 2017

EUR-USD edged out a fresh one-week high of 1.1662 after picking up bids following a dip under 1.1630. The market remains in sell-on-gains mode with regard to the dollar, following news that the Senate is delaying the implementation of its planned corporate tax cut. The debate on Capitol Hill remains ongoing, so market will be… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Nov 10, 2017

The dollar has found its feet after yesterday’s tumble on new of a U.S. tax cut delay and more limited scope of some planned cuts. EUR-USD has settled below the one-week high seen at 1.1655 and USD-JPY has recouped to around 113.40 after clocking a low at 113.09, which is the lowest level seen since… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Nov 09, 2017

The dollar was broadly lower in N.Y. on Thursday, hit by risk-off conditions which saw Wall Street tumble. Differing versions of the U.S. House and Senate tax reform bills, with the latter delaying corporate tax cuts until 2019, were behind the sell-off, leaving market expectations for a bill passage anytime soon heavily reduced. EUR-USD bottomed… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar at a Disadvantage Due to Tax-cut Sentiment

OVERVIEW US Dollar slumps ahead of Senate Republicans tax-cut bill release. Bitcoin hits an all-time high of $7888. Sterling has managed to avoid any losses due to the political turmoil unfolding. HIGHLIGHT The Euro has capitalized on a weaker Dollar and moved back above 1.1600. The Euro-zone is forecast to grow at its best rate… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Nov 09, 2017

EUR-USD has been choppy, dipping under 1.1600 before rebounding to the 1.1640 area in the late London AM session. The dip came after ECB’s Coeure said earlier that there is nothing that would justify an end to ECB monetary stimulus, while the rebound reflected a broader drop in the dollar, which seemed to correlate a… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Nov 09, 2017

The dollar has traded moderately softer, led by a 50 pip tumble in USD-JPY after news that a U.S. three-carrier strike group was conducting exercises off the Korean peninsular seemed to rattle some nerves in markets, prompting buying of the safe haven Japanese currency while pushing stocks — particularly markets in Japan and South Korea… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Nov 08, 2017

FX trade was relatively quiet in N.Y. on Wednesday, leaving the dollar just marginally firmer overall. There was no U.S. data to drive prices, and for the most part, traders were happy to remain in consolidation mode. EUR-USD topped at 1.1604, before slipping to 1.1580 lows, while USD-JPY rallied over 113.80 from 113.40 at the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Nov 08, 2017

The dollar has been trading narrow ranges so far today, holding steady after ebbing concomitantly with U.S. Treasury yields during the New York session yesterday. News that the U.S. corporate tax cut may be delayed one year before implementation had also weighed on the dollar a bit. Oil prices, in sharp focus amid the political… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Nov 08, 2017

The dollar has been trading narrow ranges so far today, holding steady in Asia after weakening concomitantly with U.S. Treasury yields during the New York session yesterday. News that the U.S. corporate tax cut may be delayed one year before implementation had also weighed on the dollar a bit. Oil prices, in sharp focus amid… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Nov 07, 2017

The dollar started the N.Y. session on a firmer footing on Tuesday, though faded as the day progressed. Stocks headed lower, which was not USD supportive, while yields edged lower as well. EUR-USD topped at 1.1590, while USD-JPY dipped to 113.83 lows. USD-CAD advanced early, though later slipped to 1.2772 lows. Cable topped at 1.3165.[EUR,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Rises on Hopes for Tax Reform

OVERVIEW GBP is down 0.4% versus US Dollar. The Euro is higher after reports from some ECB members who wanted an end date for Q.E. CAD is under pressure ahead of BOC’s governor speech. The AUD weakens as RBA signal rates on hold for time being. Oil prices have hit fresh 2-year highs on Saudi… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Nov 07, 2017

The dollar has been rally move, showing, as of the late London AM session, a gain of 0.4% versus both the euro and yen, a 0.5% gain in the respective cases against the Australian and Canadian dollars, and a relatively muted 0.2% advance versus the pound. EUR-USD logged a new three-and-a-half month low at 1.1553… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Nov 07, 2017

Dollar majors have continued to ply narrow ranges for the most part. EUR-USD side-lined in the low 1.16s. AUD-USD and USD-JPY saw a little more movement. The former lifted in the immediate wake of the RBA policy announcement and statement, with the central bank leaving interest rates unchanged (cash rate at 1.5%) while leaving guidance… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Nov 06, 2017

The dollar started the N.Y. session on a firmer footing, though later slipped broadly, on concerns over Trump’s Asian trip, Saudi Arabia’s purge, and the naming of U.S. Commerce Secretary Ross in the so-called Paradise Papers. EUR-USD bottomed at 1.1580 early on, before rallying to 1.1616 highs after the London close. USD-JPY, which had printed… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Quiet After Biggest Weekly Rise in 2017

OVERVIEW Friday’s mixed employment report and caution over US tax reforms leave the US Dollar marginally weaker. GBP is steady on hopes for progress in Brexit negotiations this week. The Euro is under pressure despite upbeat data and comments from ECB board member Praet.  The markets are off to a very quiet week with no… Read more »

Rising producer prices are flashing a caution signal

In addition to my long leading/ short leading/ coincident paradigm for forecasting expansions and recessions, I have a couple of fundamentals based alternative approaches that tell me how confident I should be. Source: XE news feed Rising producer prices are flashing a caution signal

XE Market Analysis: North America – Nov 06, 2017

EUR-USD came under moderate pressure amid a mixed bag of leads out of the Eurozone, with the final October composite PMI reading being revised higher (to 56.0 from 55.9) being offset by dovish tilting remarks by ECB member Praet, who said that a “substantial amount of monetary accommodation continues to be necessary.” The euro clocked… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Nov 06, 2017

Most dollar majors have been seeing narrow ranges. EUR-USD, for instance, has been plying a narrow range around the 1.1600 level, consolidating after dropping from levels near 1.1700 on Friday following the U.S. October jobs report, which although disappointing in the headline (at 216k), showed the jobless rate dipping and back revisions adding a further… Read more »

US Economic Week in Review: The Economy is Operating Solidly

            This week’s news pointed to a solidly expanding US economy.  Personal consumption expenditures continued growing at an impressive pace.  The ISM surveys also showed continued growth.  While the jobs report was strong, it’s best to look at the averages, which show the economy is continuing to grow at a… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: The BOJ and BOE Release Their Latest Statements

            This week, the BOJ issued their latest policy statement, which was a continuation of their low interest rate policy.  Other data indicated that Abenomics is working.  EU news continued to impress.  The BOE raised rates.  However, their policy announcement contained contradictory statements about future growth prospects. Source: XE… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: Powell Is Remarkably Mainstream

            Because he was more of a regulator than an economist, Governor Powell flew below my radar screen.  So when Trump nominated Powell to be the new head of the Federal Reserve, I had to do my homework, reading speeches he has given over the last year or to become… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: corporate bonds break out positively edition

October data started out almost entirely positive, with very strong ISM manufacturing and services readings, a strong rebound in vehicle sales for the second month in a row, strongly positive consumer confidence, an underemployment rate equal to the lowest since 2000, and an unemployment rate lower than any since then. Jobs also rebounded, and September’s… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Sinks on Slow Employment Growth

OVERVIEW The Sterling has managed to claw back some of yesterday’s losses. US Dollar hits one week low after a weaker jobs report was released. The Loonie is stronger today after the strengthened employment numbers were released.  HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Sinks on Slow Employment Growth

XE Market Analysis: North America – Nov 03, 2017

The dollar majors have hunkered down into the release of the U.S. October payrolls, which is up later today and will fine-tune Fed policy expectations for the period ahead, including the December FOMC where there Fed is widely expected to resume its gradualist tightening policy with a 25bp hike in the funds rate. USD-JPY has… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Nov 03, 2017

The dollar majors have hunkered down into the release of the U.S. October payrolls, which is up later today and will fine-tune Fed policy expectations for the period ahead, including the December FOMC where there Fed is widely expected to resume its gradualist tightening policy with a 25bp hike in the funds rate. USD-JPY has… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Sterling Slides Despite Historic Rate Increase

OVERVIEW GBP markets disappointed by the outlook for interest rates. USD is slightly weaker as Republicans unveil tax bill, FOMC remains unchanged. The Euro is lifted by strong manufacturing data. AUD rallies after unexpectedly strong trade and buildings approval data. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Sterling Slides Despite Historic Rate Increase

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Nov 02, 2017

FX trade started the Thursday session with an as-expected BoE rate hike, which was followed with a sell-the-fact response from the sterling market. Cable retreated to near one-month lows of 1.3058 into the London close from 1.3225. Elsewhere, details of the U.S. tax reform bill were released, which initially did not go over well. Stocks… Read more »

An economy firing on all cylinders

When it comes to the economy both in the present and over the next 3 to 6 months, there’s nary a cloud in the sky. I won’t bother with a graph, but the stock market (which doesn’t measure the well-being of the average American, but is a legitimate leading indicator over the next 3 to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Nov 02, 2017

The dollar has been trading generally softer so far today, although was settled at near net unchanged levels against the yen heading into the New York interbank open and up versus the pound. Reports that Fed Governor Powell will be nominated to the Fed Chairmanship position later today imparted a downside spin on the greenback,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Nov 02, 2017

The dollar has traded softer following reports run by MarketWatch and Bloomberg saying that Fed Governor Powell will be nominated to the Fed Chairmanship position later on Thursday. Powell is seen as one of the more dovish candidates for the top job at the Fed, similar to Yellen. Yesterday’s conclusion of the FOMC, meanwhile, predictably… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Nov 01, 2017

The dollar was range bound ahead of the FOMC announcement, though a decent ADP jobs report kept a floor under the unit. The greenback rose a bit, then fell, then rose again following the Fed announcement, where policy was left unchanged, as expected, and the statement was unremarkable. EUR-USD dipped to 1.1619 from near 1.1630,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Nov 01, 2017

EUR-USD has continued to gravitate around the 1.1630-40 area. The pair remains some 50 pips up on the lows seen in early trade yesterday, with some of the Catalonian risk discount having since unwound some. EUR-GBP has traded into one-month low territory, driven by pound outperformance ahead of the BoE’s expected rate hike this week,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Nov 01, 2017

The dollar has been trading mixed so far today, losing ground to an outperforming pound, holding net steady versus the euro while gaining on the yen. The pound traded firmer for a third consecutive day, logging a near-two-week high versus the dollar, at 1.1.3292 and a one-month high against the euro. Sterling markets are anticipating… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Oct 31, 2017

FX trade was relatively quiet in N.Y. on Tuesday, with the dollar putting in a mixed performance. Incoming U.S. data was somewhat supportive of the greenback, as both Chicago PMI and consumer confidence were better than expected. The doolar lost some ground to the euro and pound, though posted gains versus the yen and CAD…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: The Pound Continues to March Towards Thursday

OVERVIEW The Canadian Dollar has slipped today after GDP growth is reported at -0.1%. Sterling spiked higher on positive Brexit negotiation tone from Europeans. Dollar stable despite political turmoil around Trump ex-staff member.  HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: The Pound Continues to March Towards Thursday

XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 31, 2017

The dollar has traded mixed so far today, losing moderate ground to the euro and sterling, among other currencies, while lifting out of a two-day low in the case against the yen. In the U.S., political intrigue along with the announcement, promised to be made tomorrow, of the new Fed chair, will remain focal points… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 31, 2017

The euro rally of yesterday has run out of puff, with EUR-USD settling around 1.1630-40, below the 1.1657 high, while EUR-JPY has remained heavy, near yesterday’s 131.45 low. The yen, meanwhile, remains underpinned despite dovish guidance from the BoJ. USD-JPY logged a 12-day low at 112.95, and AUD-JPY has remained near the seven-month lows seen… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Oct 30, 2017

Stocks, yields and the dollar were all lower in N.Y. on Monday, with upcoming events and data keeping the markets nervous overall. The FOMC meeting kicks off on Tuesday, while an announcement on who the next Fed chief will be could come anytime this week. ADP jobs figures, and the October jobs report come later… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: British Pound on The Rise Ahead of BoE Meeting

OVERVIEW USD is weaker as Trump’s former campaign manager was indicted. The EUR is stable at lower levels, as the EZ economic sentiment improves. CAD is soft as the market awaits GDP and jobs data. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: British Pound on The Rise Ahead of BoE Meeting

XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 30, 2017

The dollar lost ground to the euro, sterling and yen, among other currencies, although held better versus the still-underperforming NZ dollar and the Australian buck. The euro outperformed as Spanish yields dropped as markets price out secession risk. EUR-USD lifted nearly 50 pips to the 1.1640 area, and EUR-JPY and most other euro crosses also… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 30, 2017

Narrow ranges prevailed for the most part in early week trading in currency markets. The biggest mover was, once again, the New Zealand dollar, which fell by over 0.5% as markets continue to adjust to the expected policy package of the new coalition government. A risk-off theme gave the yen an underpinning, amid concerns about… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: Two Banks Issue New Policy

            This week’s news was positive.  The Bank of Canada maintained their current 1% interest rate policy.  More importantly, the underlying data for the country is very strong. The ECB halved their bond buying program while maintaining rates at their current level.  Other news from the EU supported the ECB’s… Read more »