Category: Financial Markets

Financial markets news from external sources.

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 26, 2018

The dollar was dented briefly by the early mix of data, where Q4 GDP came in a bit under expectations. From there, U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin clarified his “weak dollar” comments from earlier in the week, which mostly put a floor under the greenback. EUR-USD topped at 1.2457 early, later easing to 1.2408 lows. USD-JPY… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Dollar Volatility Continues Comments

OVERVIEW Dollar all over the show has conflicting comments from US government officials. UK GDP surprises at 0.5% for the final quarter of 2017. ECB member says recent public noise on currency rates is proving unhelpful.   HIGHLIGHT The US Dollar continues to be extremely volatile as conflicting comments are made by the US Treasury Secretary… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 26, 2018

The dollar traded at softer levels after correcting a good chunk of the gains seen late yesterday after Trump said that he “ultimately” would prefer a strong dollar. EUR-USD settled in the mid 1.24s, up from the post-Trump low at 1.2364, but well off yesterday’s 37-month peak at 1.2537. Remarks from ECB’s Coeure that there… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 26, 2018

The dollar has ebbed back some after rallying after the London close yesterday at the prompt of Trump, who said from Davos that he favoured a strong dollar “ultimately.” EUR-USD settled around 1.2250, up from the post-Trump low at 1.2364. USD-JPY retreated to around 109.00, down from 109.77. The dollar has seen a similar ebb… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Euro Soars After Draghi's Limited FX Comments

OVERVIEW EUR hits fresh 3-year highs. The fallout from US Treasury Secretary’s comments on USD continues, despite attempts to clarify. British Pound trade-weighted index rises to 19-month high.  New Zealand Dollar slips after inflation slowed unexpectedly. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Euro Soars After Draghi’s Limited FX Comments

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 25, 2018

The dollar was smacked down again in N.Y. morning trade on Thursday, taking the DXY to trend lows of 88.45. An upbeat ECB press conference lifted EUR-USD to multi-year highs of 1.2537, while USD-JPY touched 108.50. USD-CAD touched four month lows of 1.2283, while cable hit 19-month highs of 1.4345. Part of the morning’s losses… Read more »

December housing summary: sales and prices accelerate

With this morning’s release of new home sales for December, we have a good picture of the housing market through the end of 2017, with the caveat that the Census Bureau’s report on median asking rent for the 4th Quarter will not be released until next Tuesday.   Source: XE news feed December housing… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 25, 2018

The logged fresh lows in Asia before settling during in London trading. EUR-USD logged a 37-month high of 1.2459, extending the rally seen this week from the low 1.2200s, before settling in the lower 1.2400s into the ECB announcement. ECB policy is in sharp focus with market participants looking for further confirmation that the central… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 25, 2018

Another day, another tumble in the dollar. The USD index (DXY) clocked a new low at 88.81, which is the lowest levels since January 2014. EUR-USD is up for a fourth straight day, logging a fresh 37-month high at 1.2459 before settling around 1.2425. USD-JPY is down for a third straight day, this time logging… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Dollar Slumps After Treasury Secretary's Comments

OVERVIEW US Dollar is at 3-year low versus major counterparts after the Secretary of Treasury says the weaker Dollar is good. UK employment data very strong, with GBP outperforming. EUR stands at 3-year highs, PMIs show businesses ramped up activity in January.  US home sales fell more than expected in December while prices rose. HIGHLIGHT … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 24, 2018

The DXY was crushed to 89.20 lows in N.Y. trade on Wednesday, levels last seen in December of 2014. Selling kicked off in earnest after U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin’s Davos comments, where he said a weak dollar is good for U.S. exports. EUR-USD topped at 1.2411 after opening at 1.2340, while USD-JPY slid to 108.95… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 24, 2018

The dollar has come under fresh pressure. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) traded at fresh three-year lows, logging a nadir at 89.61 and bringing the cumulative loss on the year so far to 13%. EUR-USD logged a 37-month high of 1.2356, while USD-JPY traded below 110.00 for the first time since last September, posting… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 24, 2018

The dollar has come under fresh pressure. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) traded at fresh three-year lows, logging a nadir at 89.83 and bringing cumulative loss on the year so far to 13%. EUR-USD logged a 37-month high of 1.2335, while USD-JPY traded below 110.00 for the first time since last September, posting a… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 23, 2018

The dollar came under renewed pressure in N.Y. on Tuesday, with the DXY hitting a three-plus year low of 90.07. EUR-USD topped at 1.2306 after opening near 1.2235, while USD-JPY touched 110.26, after peaking at 111.17 post-BoJ meeting. USD-CAD traded a narrow range in the mid-1.24s, while cable printed new post-Brexit vote highs of 1.4027.[EUR,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 23, 2018

The dollar trading mostly firmer in the wake of the U.S. funding deal that ended three day’s of government shutdown, although the impact was muted. The USD index (DXY) lifted out of a three-day low at 90.29 to a 90.53 high before settling just under 93.50. EUR-USD posted an intraday low at 1.2223, before recouping… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 23, 2018

The dollar gained on the Senate vote that ended the three-day government shutdown in the U.S. Gains have been moderate. The USD index (DXY) lifted out of a three-day low at 90.29 to 90.53, while EUR-USD tumbled by about 30 pips in making a low at 1.2238, subsequently settling around 1.2250, a level that the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 22, 2018

The dollar was steady in N.Y. morning trade on Monday, as dealers largely sat on their hands ahead of the Senate funding vote. Once it became clear the measure would pass, the greenback rallied modestly across the board. EUR-USD fell from session highs of 1.2260 to 1.2225 before bouncing some, while USD-JPY topped at 111.22… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Soft as Government Shutdown Continues

OVERVIEW US Dollar weak amid Washington divisions. IMF revises up global growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019. Canadian wholesale trade rises for a second straight month. Investors appear unfazed by US politics with equity markets up slightly.  HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Soft as Government Shutdown Continues

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 22, 2018

The dollar dipped at the open of Asia-Pacific dealings on concerns about the government shutdown in the U.S, but subsequently recovered losses. EUR-USD popped about 50 pips high, logged a peak at 1.2274 before ebbing back to near net unchanged levels around 1.2225. USD-JPY’S low was 110.52 before the pair lifted to an intraday peak… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 22, 2018

The dollar dipped at the open of Asia-Pacific dealings on concerns about the government shutdown in the U.S, but subsequently recovered losses. EUR-USD popped about 50 pips high, logged a peak at 1.2274 before ebbing back to near net unchanged levels around 1.2225. USD-JPY’S low was 110.52 before the pair lifted to an intraday peak… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: The Good News Continues

            The overall tenor of international news is still positive.  While UK retail sales are slowing, they are still up modestly Y/Y.  Although EU news was slightly weaker than we’ve been used to over the last few months, this week’s data has been weak for most of this expansion.  Australis… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: Don't Expect Rates to Increase That Much

            Starting in the early 1980s, the bond market has had one of the longest bull markets in the history of markets.  This is largely due to Paul Volcker having the courage to raise interest rates to oppressive levels in the early 1980s, eventually wringing most inflationary pressure out of the U.S. Source: XE… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: jump in interest rates overshadows new low in jobless claims edition

December data included housing permits, which rose slightly, and the more volatile starts, which declined sharply. Industrial production and capacity utilization both rose. Consumer sentiment about the present as measured by the University of Michigan declined, while sentiment about the future rose.    Source: XE news feed Weekly Indicators: jump in interest rates overshadows… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 19, 2018

The DXY managed modest gains in N.Y. on Friday, moving to 90.63 highs from 90.39 lows early in the session. The Softer Michigan sentiment report had little impact, nor sis prospects for about a 50-50 change of a U.S. government shut down (as of the time of this writing). EUR-USD eased from 1.2275 highs to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Dollar Recovers Slightly as Government Shutdown Looms

OVERVIEW UK retail sales disappoint. US consumer confidence weakens for a 3rd straight month. Canadian manufacturing sales post the biggest increase in 2.5 years. Fears over US government shutdown drive risk aversion. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Dollar Recovers Slightly as Government Shutdown Looms

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 19, 2018

The USD index (DXY) has tracked lower despite new U.S. yield lows, with the narrow trade-weighted index down 0.3% at 90.20, bringing Wednesday’s 37-month low to within 6 ticks. Yield gains across the globe, coupled with a burgeoning global risk-on sentiment and an associated investor hunt for higher-beta assets, along with concerns that the stopgap… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 19, 2018

The dollar has traded softer on U.S. political concerns, though has remained above recent trend lows versus the yen, euro and most other currencies. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) is down 0.2%, making a low at 90.33 and swinging the 37-month low of Wednesday at 90.14 back into scope. The House of Reps passed… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 18, 2018

The dollar edged out fresh recovery highs versus the euro and other currencies. EUR-USD logged a four-session low of 1.2165 before recouping to around 1.2200. The move reflected a dollar dynamic, with EUR-JPY and other euro crosses having held relatively steady today, even though the airing of concerns about the common currency’s ascent by some… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Loonie Volatile as Bank of Canada Announces Rate Hike

OVERVIEW EUR weaker after ECB policymaker’s comments and inflation. GBP hit a fresh high overnight. USD soft despite strong industrial production and housing data. Bitcoin slump continues, and its value is now half of its peak last month. HIGHLIGHT The Canadian Dollar saw some wild swings as the Bank of Canada announced it was raising… Read more »

Industrial production, retail sales complete strong quarter

By now I’m sure you’ve read elsewhere that industrial production rose strongly in December.  That’s certainly true, and to put it in perspective, here is the overall number (red) together with manufacturing (blue) and mining (including oil and gas) ( green):  Source: XE news feed Industrial production, retail sales complete strong quarter

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 17, 2018

The USD index (DXY) has lifted out a of a fresh low that was seen early in the Asia-Pacific session at 90.14. That is the lowest level seen since December 2014, and was the culmination of a 13.2 decline from the high seen in January 2017. The low also marks about a 55% retracement of… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 17, 2018

The dollar staged a bounce after posting fresh lows versus the yen, euro, and a number of other currencies during the early part of the Tokyo session. USD-JPY posted a new four-month low at 110.19, completing a run of seven consecutive down sessions, before recouping to the upper 110.0s. The price action was similar to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 16, 2018

The dollar was relatively steady in N.Y. trade on Tuesday, seeing the DXY crawl up to 90.82 highs, before pulling back to 90.57 lows. A softer headline Empire State index outcome had little impact. EUR-USD bottomed at 1.2196 early in the session, before topping at 1.2248. USD-JPY meanwhile, held above 110.60, peaking at 110.88 early… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: A Very Mixed Day Today for Currencies

OVERVIEW Euro drops as ECB looks set to stick to its pledge on the QE program. Sterling dips as UK inflation dropped to 3%.  Bitcoin slumps up to 18% on regulatory crackdown rumors.  HIGHLIGHT There is nothing to highlight for today’s Currency Market Analysis! US DOLLAR The US Dollar has clawed back some of the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 16, 2018

The euro dropped quite sharply on political concerns in Germany, with some SPD factions reportedly uncertain, or in outright rejection, of proposals to form a grand coalition. This has rattled EUR-USD and euro crosses, which have been aggressively bid in recent sessions. EUR-USD dove by about 70 pips in making a low of 1.2201. EUR-JPY… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 16, 2018

The dollar has settled above yesterday’s trend lows. EUR-USD has been making time in a narrow range below yesterday’s 37-month peak at 1.2296 while USD-JPY has lifted to the upper 110.0s after opening in Tokyo just under 110.50, above yesterday’s four-month low at 110.33. There were some remarks of disquiet about yen strength from both… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Slumps To 3-Year Low

OVERVIEW Broad-based Dollar weakness continues. Euro adds to gains after a 3-year high reached on Friday. GBP is rising in tandem with EUR. BoJ Governor sounds upbeat on growth, Japanese Yen hits a 4-month high. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Slumps To 3-Year Low

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 15, 2018

The dollar has continued to skid lower, with the narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) down for a fourth straight day, presently showing a 0.6% decline so far today. The index has logged a 36-month low of 90.39, and only has to breach 90.33 to make it a 37-month low. The dollar has weakened in every… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 15, 2018

.The dollar posted fresh lows versus the euro, sterling and yen, among other currencies, before rebounding some. Friday’s hotter than expected U.S. CPI data, and decent retail sales data, which were followed-up by relatively hawkish remarks from Fed member Rosengren, who said that he now favours more than three 25 bp rate hikes this year,… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: 2018 Is Starting Off Well

            Earlier this week, the OECD released their latest general assessment of world economy.  The report noted that this was the best year for global growth since the Great Recession with the expansion synchronizing across countries.  But while more countries are now growing (left chart), the pace of per capita growth… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: Bond Market Potpourri

            Rather than have a longer, common theme to this week’s column, I have several smaller stories.  Hence, “Bond Market, Potpourri.” The Big Sell-off in the 10-Year Source: XE news feed US Bond Market Week in Review: Bond Market Potpourri

US Economic Week in Review: Strong Retail Sales and Modest Inflationary Pressures

            This week was light on the U.S. economic news front; there were only two releases of import: retail sales and CPI.             Retail sales were strong: they increased .4% M/M and 5.4% Y/Y.  Ex-auto, the numbers were .4% and 6.3% respectively.  Here’s the data in graph form: Source: XE news feed US Economic… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Sterling Surges on Rumors of Soft Brexit

OVERVIEW The Euro hit a three year high against the US Dollar in early trade on successful German coalition. The Pound hit its highest level against the Dollar since the Brexit Referendum. Canadian central bank interest rate hike probability hits 86%. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Sterling Surges on Rumors of Soft… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 12, 2018

The dollar perked up briefly following warmer U.S. core CPI and solid retail sales figures, though as has been the case for a month, sellers quickly took charge. EUR-USD had fallen to 1.2111 lows after the data, though later vaulted to three-plus year highs of 1.2157. USD-JPY bounced from opening lows of 111.15 to a… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 12, 2018

The euro rallied to fresh highs on news of a breakthrough in coalition talks in Germany, which followed yesterday’s ECB minutes, which many interpreted as being hawkish. EUR-USD traded above 1.2700 for the first time since December 2014, and EUR-CHF also forayed into 37-month high territory. The dollar bore the brunt of euro buying, and… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 12, 2018

The dollar has remained on a softening tack, with the narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) extending yesterday’s declines from levels around 92.50 to a 91.75 low today,, which matches the four-month low that was posted on January 2. The greenback has logged fresh lows versus the euro, sterling and Australian dollar, among other currencies, in… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 11, 2018

The dollar took an early hit on Thursday in N.Y. trade, as ECB minutes said the Bank could change its guidance in early 2018 if the EU economy continues to expand. Incoming U.S. data missed the mark, weighing further on the USD, as jobless claims were higher than expected, and PPI cooler than forecasts. EUR-USD… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Euro Spikes as ECB Signals Guidance Shift

OVERVIEW ECB minutes spark speculation over QE program. Chinese authorities deny reports on US debt purchases. USD back under pressure after PPI falls. AUD rallies after strong retail sales. CAD weaker on NAFTA concerns. Oil surges to highest since 2014 as OPEC say output cuts will continue. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market… Read more »

A relationship to watch in 2018: hiring leads firing

Perhaps the biggest single thread in my overall business cycle analysis in the past year or two is that we have come to the later part of the cycle, but on the other hand there are no signs of any near-term decline.   Source: XE news feed A relationship to watch in 2018: hiring… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 11, 2018

The dollar is firmer after China rebutted yesterday’s Bloomberg story alleging that it was pondering a reduction on U.S. Treasury purchases. USD-JPY broke a run of three consecutive declines, which printed a seven-week low at 111.27 yesterday, in recouping to the upper 111.0s. China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange said that the Bloomberg report was… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 11, 2018

The dollar is firmer after China rebutted yesterday’s Bloomberg story alleging that it was pondering a reduction on U.S. Treasury purchases. USD-JPY broke a run of three consecutive declines, which printed a seven-week low at 111.27 yesterday, in recouping to the upper 111.0s. China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange said that the Bloomberg report was… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 10, 2018

The dollar perked up some in N.Y. trade on Wednesday, after getting smacked lower in the London morning session, after it was speculated that China would pare its Treasury purchases. EUR-USD slipped from opening highs over 1.2005 to base at 1.1940. USD-JPY bottomed at 111.27 early on, then topped at 111.64 before turning sideways. UJSD-CAD… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Choppy Day Across the Board in the Currency Market

OVERVIEW The US Dollar is choppy after rumors about the Chinese central bank planning to slow/halt buying US Treasuries.  Euro strong as Italian opposition says the country should stay in the Euro.  Pound ignores strong industrial output, focusing on Brexit.  HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Choppy Day Across the Board in… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 10, 2018

The dollar has kicked lower on reports about China, which is apparently considering downsizing its purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds. A Bloomberg report citing unnamed sources is the font of the story, and there hasn’t as yet been any official confirmation or denial. There is a sub-narrative in forex markets that the dollar’s unexplained weakness… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 10, 2018

The dollar has traded steady-to-firmer, overall. EUR-USD has remained heavy, meeting good selling interest above 1.1950, though so far remaining above yesterday’s 12-day low at 1.1915. Cable and AUD-USD have been seeing similar price actions, aided by the spike in U.S. Treasury yields over the last day, while the dialogue between North and South Korea… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Yen Rises as BoJ Scales Back Bond Buys

OVERVIEW US Dollar recovers some ground, supported by higher US bond yields. German industrial production surges, trade data highlights rising global demand. Australian building approvals bounce back. Oil prices hold around 2.5-year highs. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Yen Rises as BoJ Scales Back Bond Buys

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 09, 2018

After posting gains overnight, the dollar index steadied through the N.Y. session, topping at eight-session highs of 92.64. EUR-USD printed lows of 1.1915, though USD-JPY pulled back to 112.36 lows, on N. Korea concerns, though managed to recover to 112.66 as Wall Street again rallied, and Treasury yields rose. USD-CAD consolidated recent losses, topping at… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 09, 2018

The dollar and yen rallied against most other currencies, while USD-JPY itself posted moderate declines. The yen was lifted by the BoJ announcing a tapering in QE, which sent USD-JPY some 70 pips lower to a three-session low of 112.49. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses saw a similar price action. The BoJ said that purchases… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 09, 2018

The yen spiked on the BoJ announcement of QE tapering, which sent USD-JPY some 70 pips lower to a 112.9 low. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses saw a similar price action. The BoJ announced that purchases of 10- to 25-year JGBs would be trimmed to Y190 bln from Y200 bln, with purchases of debt with… Read more »

Sterling Strengthens as PM May Reshuffles Her Cabinet

OVERVIEW The Sterling shrugs off some reshuffling in the cabinet to strengthen on the day. The Euro remains under pressure as the latest economic data from Germany points to some rare weakness. The Canadian Dollar weakens as the Bank of Canada points to some moderation ahead in the economy. The US Dollar remains unchanged after… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 08, 2018

The dollar was marginally firmer in N.Y. trade on Monday, though major pairings remained inside of relatively tight ranges. EUR-USD touched lows of the year at 1.1960, while USD-JPY was a bit heavy on the back of modest Wall Street losses, bottoming at 112.89. USD-CAD was pushed lower by an upbeat BoC outlook survey, while… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 08, 2018

The dollar opened the week on a firm footing. has opened the new week on a firmer footing, with EUR-USD ebbing under 1.2000 for the first time this year and USD-JPY lifting back to within a few pips of Friday’s 12-day high at 113.31 before backing off some. The dollar has also made gains versus… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 08, 2018

The dollar has opened the new week on a firmer footing, with EUR-USD ebbing to a three-session low of 1.2006 and USD-JPY lifting back to within a few pips of Friday’s 12-day high at 113.31. The dollar has also made gains versus sterling and the Australian dollar, tumbling by 0.4% against the latter to a… Read more »

Weekly indicators: a very positive new year edition

December data started out with an improvement in motor vehicle sales and the ISM manufacturing index. ISM services was positive but decelerated from last month. Jobs were positive but also showed deceleration. The unemployment rate held steady. The underemployment rate rose slightly, a negative.   Source: XE news feed Weekly indicators: a very positive… Read more »

US Economic Week in Review: The Labor Market is on Solid Footing

            Jobs data is one of the most important sets of economic information used by economists.  A high rate of hiring is prima facia evidence of a growing economy and increasing demand.  Strong jobs growth also supports higher consumer spending, which is responsible for 70% of US economic growth.  This is why the initial claims… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: Rate Hikes Are Still On for 2018

              On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the latest Meeting Minutes, which were taken during December’s meeting.  The Fed believes that financing conditions are supportive and that the economy ended the year on a high-note.  However, there are still a large number of conflicting views among the Fed governors regarding inflation, indicating there is… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: 2018 Starts With a Bang

            What this week lacked in volume, it made up for in weight.  Markit released their monthly PMI numbers for all the advanced economies.  If Europe’s numbers continue in this manner for the rest of the year, the continent can expect its best post-Recession growth totals om 2018.  Japan’s numbers… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 05, 2018

The dollar recovered its post-jobs report initial losses, as the market came to the realization that despite the NFP miss, the internals of the report were fairly good. EUR-USD retraced under 1.2025 from 1.2083 highs, as USD-JPY moved back over 113.20 from 113.02 lows. USD-CAD did not participated in the comeback rally however, and remained… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 05, 2018

The dollar traded firmer as the release of the December U.S. jobs loomed large. USD-JPY has rallied for a third consecutive day, hitting a nine-day peak at 113.28, extending the rebound from the thee-week low that was seen earlier in the week at 112.05. It wasn’t just a firmer dollar story, as EUR-JPY, despite a… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 05, 2018

.The dollar traded mostly firmer during the pre-London session in Asia. USD-JPY has rallied for a third consecutive day, this time hitting a nine-day peak at 113.11. This extends the rebound from the thee-week low that was seen earlier in the week at 112.05. A record-breaking rally on Wall Street, and strong equity market gains… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Dollar Weakens as Global Optimism Surges

OVERVIEW Growth in US private payrolls exceeds expectations. Fed minutes show uncertainty about tax cut impact on the economy. UK service sector picks up in December. Eurozone PMIs confirm growth still firming. Global stock markets hit fresh record highs, oil prices reach $68 a barrel.  HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Dollar… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 04, 2018

The FX market was relatively quiet in N.Y. on Thursday, with major dollar pairings maintaining narrow ranges throughout. The DXY remained under the 92.00 mark, though stayed above Tuesday’s three-plus month low of 91.75. A strong ADP jobs report provided some support to the greenback, though there was little follow through seen, especially with the… Read more »

My K.I.S.S. forecast for the first half of 2018

At the outset of every year I lay out a forecast for each half.  My method of forecasting is pretty simple — in fact so simple, I call it the K.I.S.S. method.  Even though the Index of Leading Indicators is the statistic most denigrated by Wall Street forecasters, it has the inconvenient habit of being… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 04, 2018

The dollar whittled away gains seen yesterday following the release of the FOMC minutes. EUR-USD recovered above 1.2050, over 50 pips up on the post-minutes low, while USD-JPY settled to a choppy range around 112.50 after logging a high in early Tokyo trading at 112.77. The narrow USD index (DXY), at 91.94, was showing a… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 04, 2018

The dollar has settled off the highs it saw in the wake of the FOMC minutes release yesterday, which showed members to be contemplating the impact of the tax cut, which was seen as having scope to raise consumption and capex. USD-JPY gave back of half of its post-FOMC minutes gains in declining to around… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 03, 2018

The dollar posted modest gains in N.Y. on Wednesday, taking the DXY from overnight lows of 91.81, to 92.24 highs, before pulling back to near 92.05. A strong U.S. manufacturing ISM outcome supported the greenback, though there appeared to be little USD buying conviction in the market ahead of the key December jobs report on… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Regains Footing

OVERVIEW US manufacturing activity accelerates; construction spending hits a record high. USD higher against the majority of G10 counterparts.  German unemployment is at a record low. Fresh record highs for US stock markets. Oil prices hit fresh 2-1/3 year highs. HIGHLIGHT Unemployment in Germany hit a record low of 5.5% last month as its jobless… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 03, 2018

The dollar has settled after yesterday extending the recent run lower. EUR-USD oscillated in a narrow range in the mid 1.20s, below the four-month high posted yesterday at 1.2082. USD-JPY steadied following a seven consecutive session run lower, which yesterday left a 19-day low at 112.05. The pair retains a heavy technical tone. The rebound… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Begins New Year on the Defensive

OVERVIEW GBP rising despite slower manufacturing growth. The Euro climbs towards 2.5-year highs, record high manufacturing activity.  Chinese manufacturing growth unexpectedly picked up to a four-month high in December. Singapore growth cools, but currency rises on monetary policy bets.  European shares fall as US shares continue to rally regardless. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 02, 2018

The dollar started the year under pressure, as it has been since mid-December. The DXY fell to a better than three-month low of 91.77 into the open, before recovering marginally. EUR-USD bottomed at 1.2027, down from overnight highs of 1.2081, before settling near 1.2050. USD-JPY meanwhile maintained a narrow band above 112.00. USD-CAD found support… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 02, 2018

The dollar has literally fallen into 2018, starting the new year where it left off the last by declining against most other currencies. EUR-USD logged a four-month high of 1.2082, as did Cable, at 1.3567. AUD-USD and NZD-USD rallied to fresh 10-week highs, of 0.7844 and 0.7131, respectively. USD-JPY tipped to an 18-day low of… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 02, 2018

The dollar ebbed in early 2018 trading, continuing a dominant theme that’s been persisting since before Christmas. EUR-USD logged a four-month high of 1.2030, while AUD-USD and NZD-USD rallied to fresh 10-week highs, of 0.7842 and 0.7131, respectively. USD-JPY traded in a narrow range in the mid-to-upper 112.0s, while most yen crosses traded higher. EUR-JPY… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: A Look At the Dissenter's Arguments

            At the last Fed meeting, a majority of Federal Reserve governors voted to raise rates.  Citing the combination of a strong labor market and the expectation that inflation would return to 2% in the intermediate future, a majority of the board voted to raise rates an additional .25%.  But… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: 2017 Ends on a High Note

            This was a good year for the global economy.  The EU, which has suffered from two potential economic crisis in the last seven years, had one year of consistently good economic data.  The UK has yet to experience severe negative post-Brexit developments (although weak construction spending may develop into… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: a powerful end to 2017 edition

November data was sparse in this last week of the year, but included acceleration in rising house prices, a very strong Chicago PMI, including a red hot new orders subindex, and a bifurcation in consumer confidence, with an overall slight decline divided into rising confidence about the present, with a one year low in future… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Dec 29, 2017

FX trade was thin and choppy on the last trading day of the year, though the greenback remained in sell-mode into 2018. EUR-USD topped at new three-month highs of 1.2013, up from 1.1983 lows, while USD-JPY traded near 112.50 before pooping to 112.67 highs into the London close. USD-CAD printed fresh two-month lows of 1.2526,… Read more »

2018 Is Looking Like Another Solid Economic Year

          Looking forward to 2018, it appears the U.S. economy will continue on its path of modest to moderate growth.  Two long-leading indicators – corporate profits and the BBB corporate bond yield – are signaling continued growth.  Building permits – which, depending on who you ask, are either a long-leading or… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Dec 29, 2017

The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) ebbed to a three-month low of 92.42. This is the culmination of a near 1% decline this week, and a 8.5% decline on the year-to-date, with the dollar ranking as the weakness of the main currencies we track. This is despite the Fed having hiked rates three times, and… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Dec 29, 2017

The dollar has maintained a soft bias so far on the last day of trading for 2017. EUR-USD remained buoyant after logging a one-month high at 1.1959 yesterday, while USD-JPY eked out a seven-session low of 112.63. The greenback also logged fresh two-month highs versus the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars, and a three-week… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Dec 28, 2017

The dollar was broadly weaker in N.Y. trade on Thursday, with year-end flows weighing. This said, trading ranges were narrow, and volumes light. A wider than expected advance goods trade deficit, higher than forecast jobless claims print and a better Chicago PMI outcome had little impact. EUR-USD topped at a one-month high of 1.1959, while… Read more »

Marking my 2017 forecast to market

It’s the end of the year and so in this, my last post of the year (except for Weekly Indicators), let’s take a look back at the forecast for 2017 I made one year ago, and mark it to market. Source: XE news feed Marking my 2017 forecast to market

XE Market Analysis: North America – Dec 28, 2017

The dollar posted fresh lows versus a number of currencies. The outperformers were commodity currencies. EUR-USD clocked a one-month high at 1.1946 before settling around 1.1930. USD-JPY saw a six-session low at 112.66 before recouping toward the 113.00 level. AUD-USD posted a new high for the fifth straight session, logging a two-month peak of 0.7809…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Dec 28, 2017

The dollar has continued on a softening track, concomitantly with the sharp drop in Treasury yields. This drove EUR-USD to a four-week high of 1.1935 and USD-JPY to a six-session low of 112.66. The dollar has also posted two-week lows versus the pound and two-month lows against both the Australian and Canadian dollars. All of… Read more »

US Economic Week in Review: The Economy Ends the Year on a Strong Note

            The BEA released their last GDP estimate of the US economy earlier this week.  The report showed that the economy is doing very well.  On a Y/Y basis, topline growth was 2.3%, which continues the quarterly increase in this number.             Individual components were also very strong.  Personal consumption expenditures – which comprise 70%… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: spreads fall to 10 year low edition

November housing data was all strongly positive, including permits, starts, and new and existing home sales. Partly as a result of that, the Index of Leading Indicators increased. Personal income and spending were up, but at the expense of a decline in the savings rate.  Durable goods rose overall, but core goods fell slightly. Sentiment… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Dec 22, 2017

Currencies are likely to remain range bound as market participants will be non-committal into the holiday period. The yen, while steady today, has been finishing the year on a softening tack. ‘Abenomic’ policies remain in full swing, with the cabinet today approving a stimulus budget, and with the BoJ having signalled yesterday that it is… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Dec 21, 2017

The dollar index pulled back from the 93.50 level at the N.Y. open, to a base of 93.26, in relatively light trade. In coming U.S. data weighed on the greenback to an extent, as Q3 GDP was revised slightly lower, and jobless claims rose more than expected. EUR-USD chopped around inside of 1.1850-80, while USD-JPY… Read more »