Category: Financial Markets

Financial markets news from external sources.

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Sep 05, 2017

The dollar remained under pressure through the N.Y. session on Tuesday, with risk-off firmly in place following the weekend N. Korea nuke test. In addition, U.S. politics, and hurricane concerns remain, with immigration, the debt ceiling, budget, and tax reform all up in the air, as the dysfunctional U.S. Congress returns to work from a… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Oz and NZ Dollars Surge After Dovish Fed Comments

OVERVIEW US equity markets open lower as investors react to Sunday’s North Korean bomb test. Markets still nervous as the focus remains on NK and concerns of another missile launch. Risk aversion causes US 10-year government costs down to their lows for the year. US Dollar is weaker after Fed Governor, Lael Brainard, signals preference… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Sep 05, 2017

The yen and franc retained a safe haven bid, although the degree of risk aversion was somewhat less than a run to the hills, and more of a weary expression of concern with regard to the North Korea’s ratcheting up of the geopolitical ante with nuclear testing. USD-JPY fell for a second day, logging a… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Sep 05, 2017

The yen and franc retained a safe haven bid, although the degree of risk aversion was somewhat less than a run to the hills, and more of a weary expression of concern with regard to the North Korea’s ratcheting up of the geopolitical ante with nuclear testing. USD-JPY fell for a second day, logging a… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Sep 04, 2017

The USD index closed out in London with a 0.4% loss after a bout of selling during the opening volleys of Asia-Pacific trade and again during the London AM session. North Korea’s weekend nuclear antics set a risk-off tone in global markets, which saw the dollar extend losses seen after Friday’s sub-forecast U.S. jobs report…. Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: Something Each For the Hawks and Doves

         Friday’s employment report contained figures that would support any Fed governor’s rate raising arguments.  The three, six and twelve month moving average of job growth are holding steady between 150,000 and 200,000/month: Source: XE news feed US Bond Market Week in Review: Something Each For the Hawks and Doves

US Equity and Economic Week in Review: Solid Numbers and a Potential Short-Term Rally

              This week, the BEA released their second estimate of 2Q17 GDP, which increased 3% Q/Q and 2.2% Y/Y.  Internal numbers were solid.  Personal consumption expenditures (PCEs) were up 2.7% Y/Y.  Durable goods spending rose 6.8% Y/Y, thanks to contributions from spending on furnishings and recreational goods.  Motor vehicle sales were weak for a… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Sep 04, 2017

USD-JPY dove back under 110.00 on geopolitical concerns and Friday’s underwhelming U.S. August jobs report. North Korea tested a nuclear bomb on Sunday, ratcheting up market anxieties and seeing stock markets dove in Asia today. The yen met a burst of safe haven demand, sending USD-JPY to a 109.53 low, which is the lowest since… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Sep 01, 2017

The dollar fell sharply in early N.Y. trade on Friday, driven down by the weaker than expected U.S. August employment report. EUR-USD spiked up to 1.1980 from under 1.1920, as USD-JPY tumbled to 109.57 from 110.10. USD-CAD initially dropped nearly 100 points to 26-month lows of 1.2340, as cable topped at 1.2995, a near three-week… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Sep 01, 2017

The dollar has steadied after extending declines during the early part of the Asia-Pacific session. The losses had been sparked yesterday by Treasury Secretary Mnunchi, who said that a weaker currency is better for trade (although adding that a stronger dollar in the longer run “inevitable” due to confidence in the U.S.). EUR-USD saw a… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Aug 31, 2017

The dollar started out on a firmer footing, and was aided early on by decent incoming U.S. data. U.S. political uncertainty continued to make itself known however, while month-end conditions provided some chop, resulting in USD gains later to come unwound. Wall Street moved off its best levels, while yields were fairly steady. EUR-USD bottomed… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Canadian Dollar Outperforms As Economy Soars

OVERVIEW Euro continued to reverse previous week’s gain as ECB sources warn of currency’s rise. US data mixed, stronger consumer spending but weaker inflation and pending home sales unexpectedly fell. Eurozone inflation came in above expectations at 1.5% year-on-year in August, from 1.3% in July. German retail sales and unemployment data were slightly disappointing. Brexit… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Aug 31, 2017

The dollar rallied for a second day, getting a helping hand via re-energized selling in EUR-USD on the Reuters report of ECB sources saying that policymakers have been becoming increasingly worried about the pace of euro gains. EUR-USD dove to a new four-session low of 1.1846, earlier having met solid selling interest above 1.1900. The… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Aug 31, 2017

The dollar continued higher for a second day, with the narrow trade-weighted USD index logging a four-session peak at 93.02 as EUR-USD ebbed to a four-session low at 1.1866. USD-JPY climbed above 110.50, extending the recovery from the four-month low seen on Tuesday at 108.26. The move has been concomitant with a pick in risk… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Aug 30, 2017

The dollar rallied in the aftermath of the strong ADP jobs report, and the upgraded Q2 GDP revision, taking EUR-USD to 1.1895 lows from 1.1930 into the open. USD-JPY bounced to 110.43 from around 110.00. After a brief correction lower following a Trump tweet, which said “talking is not the answer” with regards to N…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Dollar Strengthens After GDP Revised Up

OVERVIEW North Korea concerns ease, sending stocks higher. Upward revisions to US Q2 GDP growth have raised Fed rate hike expectations. ADP reported a higher than forecast number of US jobs created in August. UK mortgage approval data was stronger than expected, though consumer lending slowed. German CPI rose to 1.8% in August, exceeding expectations… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Aug 30, 2017

The dollar recovered some lost ground today. The narrow trade-weighted USD index was showing a 0.2% gain at 92.42 as of the early European PM session, up from yesterday’s low at 91.55, which is the lowest level seen since January 2015. EUR-USD fell to a low of 1.1938, down over 40 pips from yesterday’s New… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Aug 30, 2017

The dollar is trading firmer against most of its main peers, while the yen has underperformed. USD-JPY has led the way, with the pair having recouped above 110.00 from yesterday’s low at 108.26. Yen crosses are also higher, with EUR-JPY rallying to a 19-month high today, for instance. Trump’s measured response to North Korea’s launch… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Aug 29, 2017

It looked like the dollar was out for the count early in the Tuesday N.Y. session, though a bounce in home prices, and a much better than expected consumer confidence outcome rallied stocks, helping the greenback off the floor. EUR-USD fell from near 1.2040 to lows of 1.1982, while USD-JPY topped at 109.53, after printing… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North Korea Missile Launch Rocks Markets, Euro Soars

OVERVIEW North Korea’s missile launch overnight reignites fears that it has no intention of easing tensions with the US, and that military conflict remains a serious risk.  Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen are in demand due to risk aversion global stocks being down sharply. Euro surges through 1.20 with the US Dollar under broad pressure…. Read more »

A tale of two housing slowdowns

Last year after interest rates spiked in the wake of the Presidential election, I forecast a slowdown in the housing market, which duly arrived beginning this spring. We had a similar slowdown in early 2014 after the “taper tantrum:” Source: XE news feed A tale of two housing slowdowns

XE Market Analysis: North America – Aug 29, 2017

The dollar came under broad pressure while the yen outperformed as a run-to-the-hills sentiment coursed through global markets, with North Korea escalating geopolitical tensions by launching a missile over Japan (ultimately landing in the sea to the east). This comes with the markets trying to assess the economic damage in storm-afflicted Texas, and amid an… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Aug 29, 2017

The dollar has come under fresh pressure as the London interbank take to their desks. EUR-USD has punched out new 31-month highs, this time above 1.1990, while the narrow trade-weighted USD index hit a 16-month low at 92.06. USD-JPY dove to a four-month low at 108.33 in early Asia-Pacific dealings before settling in the upper… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Aug 28, 2017

The dollar lost ground through the N.Y. session, with fallout from Yellen’s non-policy speech on Friday continuing to weigh down the greenback. Trade was relatively thin, as London was on holiday. EUR-USD printed 2.5 year highs of 1.1983, coming from near 1.1925 at the open, while USD-JPY fell back from 109.41 highs, easing into 109.00… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Aug 28, 2017

The dollar saw fresh lows versus the euro, yen and other currencies in early Asia-Pacific trade before currency pairings settled in narrow ranges, with liquidity lacking amid the absence of London markets today. EUR-USD has settled to a narrow range around 1.1920-40 after logging a new 31-month high at 1.1959 in early Asia, extending the… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: A Hurricane Shortened Edition

              This is a hurricane shortened piece (we’re fine). Markit released their latest survey numbers earlier in the week.  Manufacturing rose .9 to 57.4; the services index was down slightly, moving from 55.4 to 54.9 and the composite increased .1 to 55.8.  Output and new orders both rose, while new export orders increased to its highest… Read more »

US Equity and Economic Week in Review: Real Estate and Equity Market Weakness

        This week was all about housing.  On Wednesday, the Census Bureau released the latest new home sales figures, which were disappointing.  They fell 9.4% M/M and 8.9% Y/Y.  Large declines in the Northeast (-23%) and West (-21%) caused the weakness.  Sales were down in the $200,000-$299,000 (-29%) and $300,000-$399,000 (-23) price… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: no eclipse of the positive data edition

July data included a decrease in both new and existing home sales, while prices continued to increase.  Durable goods orders also declined, but ex-transportation, and “core” orders increased.   Source: XE news feed Weekly Indicators: no eclipse of the positive data edition

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Aug 25, 2017

The dollar was steady into the Yellen speech from Jackson hole, though pulled back following the release of her prepared comments, which revealed no new clues on the policy outlook. As a result, the FX market appeared to go back to its baseline expectations of no more rate hikes this year. EUR-USD spiked up to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Big Focus on Wyoming for Today

OVERVIEW Euro is stronger as German business sentiment outperforms expectations. Jackson Hole hots up with Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi on the card for today. Gold soars as markets focus on central bankers. HIGHLIGHT US durable goods orders knock the Dollar ahead of the Jackson Hole main events. Source: XE news feed XE Market… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Aug 25, 2017

EUR-USD picked up from lows in the wake of an above-forecast German Ifo sentiment index for August, which showed a more modest pullback from July’s record high than had been anticipated alongside an encouraging jump in business expectations. The euro logged a post-data high of 1.1801 before stalling out, with market participants lacking commitment to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Aug 25, 2017

Forex markets have been directionally challenged for the most part in Asian trading to far, with participants hunkered down ahead of the Yellen and Draghi show at the Jackson Hole symposium today. EUR-USD has continued to narrowly orbit the 1.1800 level, and Cable has steadied near 1.2800, despite yesterday’s dismal CBI distributive sales report having… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Aug 24, 2017

FX trade was relatively calm in N.Y. on Thursday, with narrow ranges the rule for major dollar pairings. More of the same is in the cards ahead of Friday’s Jackson Hole speeches from Yellen and Draghi. On the U.S. data front, jobless claims were about in-line with expectations, though existing home sales were softer than… Read more »

The 2017 housing stall continues

Yesterday’s new home sales report — subject always, to sharp revisions — for now confirms the slowdown in the housing market. Although the previous months were revised higher, sales of new single family homes have failed to make a new high for — months (blue in the graph below), and confirm the stagnation shown by… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Markets Watch as Jackson Hole Kicks Off

OVERVIEW British Pound slumps as GDP for Q2 is confirmed at 0.3%. Currency markets eye Jackson Hole in a vacuum of significant economic data. ECB policy maker, Ardo Hansson, says he is not concerned about the strength of the Euro. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Markets Watch as Jackson Hole Kicks… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Aug 24, 2017

EUR-USD drifted below 1.1800, extending the modest downward drift from yesterday’s post-PMI high at 1.1823. Position trimming appears to in play ahead of tomorrow’s speeches by Fed’s Yellen and ECB’s Draghi from the Jackson Hole symposium. USD-JPY settled in the lower 109.0s, so far holding comfortably within yesterday’s range, lacking directional bias. Source: XE… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Aug 24, 2017

Sterling posted a fresh eight-year low versus the euro during the pre-London session in Asia, and Cable a new eight-week low, at 1.2774. The underperformance of the pound comes after the solid flash August PMI data out of the Eurozone yesterday and ahead of today’s second estimate Q2 GDP release out of the UK, which… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Aug 23, 2017

The dollar gave up some of its overnight gains in N.Y. trade on Wednesday, as risk-off conditions returned following Tuesday’s sharp Wall Street gains. Stocks were lower on Wednesday, following Trump’s speech the previous evening, where he threatened to shut down the government if his border wall was not funded. EUR-USD rallied to 1.1819 highs,… Read more »

XE Market Anaylsis: Sterling Under Pressure as the UK Government Steps into Negotiations

OVERVIEW The Euro strengthens as manufacturing data reaches a 6-year high. Sterling under pressure as Brexit uncertainty weighs. Robust trade data from China helps stocks. New home sales in the US fall 9.4% in July. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Anaylsis: Sterling Under Pressure as the UK Government Steps into Negotiations

XE Market Analysis: North America – Aug 23, 2017

The dollar traded softer versus the main European currencies and the yen, though held up better against the Canadian dollar and other commodity currencies. The euro outperformed concomitantly with a rise in Bund yields following Eurozone PMI data, with the surveys showing an unexpected improvement to a reading to 57.4 in the composite flash reading… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Aug 22, 2017

The dollar firmed up some in N.Y. trade on Tuesday, leaving EUR-USD at session lows under 1.1850 into the close. USD-JPY meanwhile, topped 109.50, while cable printed one-month lows of 1.2812. USD-CAD bucked the trend, falling to two week lows of 1.2527 after better Canada retail sales volumes. Risk-on returned, with stocks aided by talk… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: An Upset in Economic Sentiment for Germany

OVERVIEW The UK Public Sector net borrowing grew by 9% year-over-year. President Trump commits an additional 4,000 troops to Afghanistan. The Chinese Yuan continues to strengthen as it pushes towards its highest level in almost a year. Retail sales from Canada rose 0.7% excluding autos. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: An… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Aug 22, 2017

EUR-USD drifted over 50 pips lower during the London AM session in nearing 1.1750, giving back nearly all of the gain posted yesterday. Much weaker than expected German investor confidence in the latest ZEW survey helped the euro lower, though the common currency had already been under the cosh ahead of the release. The survey… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Aug 22, 2017

The dollar has traded softer versus many currencies during the pre-London session in Asia, including against the euro, and commodity and emerging world currencies, though the greenback gained versus the yen. A revival in risk appetite brought some pressure on the Japanese currency, while there remains a degree of position jostling ahead of the Jackson… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Aug 21, 2017

After trading largely sideways overnight, the dollar lost ground in N.Y. trade on Monday, leaving the DXY at one-week lows of 93.00. Risk-off conditions remained, see stocks and yields mostly lower. The was no U.S. data to drive markets to start the week. EUR-USD rallied to six-session highs of 1.1828, after opening at 1.1760, while… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Another High-Level Departure from Trump's Administration

OVERVIEW The UK government tries to step up negotiations on Brexit with Europe. The Norwegian Krone continues to strengthen as we approach the elections in Norway. Wholesale trade numbers in June from Canada fail to liven up the Loonie. The Bundesbank upgrades growth expectations for Germany for this year. HIGHLIGHT The departure of Steve Bannon… Read more »

The apartment boom, revisited

One of the things I have been surprised about in the last several years is the relative lack of apartment construction. With the large Millennial generation in their 20s and 30s, the big increases in rent, and the collapse in supply during the housing bust, I figured there would be a boom. Source: XE… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Aug 21, 2017

USD-JPY settled to the lower 109.0s after capping out at a 109.42 on Friday. Market participants are keeping a weather eye on the Korean peninsular, with Pyongyang today warning of a “merciless strike” as the U.S. and South Korea prepare for military drills. Although markets are well accustomed to these sort of sabre rattling, the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Aug 21, 2017

The dollar majors traded without drama during the pre-London open session in Asia. USD-JPY settled to the lower 109.0s after capping out at a 109.42 on Friday, which was seen following a pop higher on the news that Trump advisor Bannon was out (on the view that the executive branch will be left less acutely… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: A Solid Week of News

            This week, there was no macro theme tying all the data together, save a general positive tone in the EU and Japan, but more weakness in the UK.             The RBA released their latest meeting minutes this week, which contained the following analysis of the Australian economy: Source:… Read more »

US Equity and Economic Week in Review: Solid Economic Fundamentals Provide Support For a Correcting Market

            This week saw the release of several key statistics: building permits and housing starts (which, depending on your interpretation, are either long-leading or leading indicators), along with two coincident indicators: industrial production and retail sales.  It seems appropriate to fold these releases into a broader analysis of the long-leading leading… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: another sea of green edition

July data featured another positive reading of the Index of Leading Indicators, despite a decline in both housing permits and starts. Industrial production and retail sales were also both positive, although manufacturing production was slightly negative and capacity utilization was flat. The preliminary August reading of the Michigan consumer sentiment survey was positive. June total… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Aug 18, 2017

The combination of terror attacks, and ongoing U.S. political gyrations riled markets again in N.Y. on Friday, taking USD-JPY to four month lows of 108.61 in the process, as risk-off conditions prevailed. Later in the session, it became clear that White House advisor Bannon was on his way out, which quickly brought a relief rally… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Spanish Attacks Spark Fresh Nervousness

OVERVIEW House price growth in China slowed more than expected in July, with prices rising 9.7%. Canadian inflation ticked up to 1.2% in July but remained well below the Bank of Canada’s 2.0% target. US consumer sentiment rose more than expected to 97.6 in August. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Spanish… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Aug 18, 2017

The yen and safe have assets remained in demand amid a backdrop of U.S. political concerns, which boils down to reduced odds for the implementation of Trump’s pro-growth agenda, with the latest terror attack on a Western nation by Islamist extremists, this time in Barcelona, also in the mix. USD-JPY carved out a four-session low… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Euro Hits 3-Week Low After ECB Warns of Currency’s Strength

OVERVIEW Eurozone second quarter growth was upgraded to 2.2% year-on-year.  FOMC minutes showed Fed members were becoming increasingly wary about recent weak inflation. UK government says it is “confident we will have made sufficient progress by October to advance the (Brexit) talks to the next phase”. UK retail sales rose 0.3% in July, annual growth… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Aug 17, 2017

The dollar was mixed in N.Y. trade on Thursday, losing ground to the euro and yen, while posting modes gains against the CAD. Cable was relatively steady. Incoming U.S. data was net positive, as jobless claims fell more than expected, the Philly Fed fell less than anticipated, and industrial production was firmer, though under consensus… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: Is the Fed Changing Their Thinking on Inflation?

        My formative years stretched from the mid-1970s to mid-1980s.  While my economic awareness at the time was at best weak, I do remember that inflation was a very important issue that was constantly on my father’s mind.  It’s also obvious that this period continues to haunt today’s central bankers as they… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Aug 17, 2017

EUR-USD ebbed back under 1.1700, over 70 pips down from pre-Europe levels in a move composed of about one part general dollar firming and about three parts general euro weakening. Relatively sustained selling of EUR-JPY, traded at three-day lows, drove broader declines in the common currency. Eurozone data showing a bigger than expected trade surplus… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Aug 17, 2017

The yen has seen its safe haven bid revived following the collapse of Trump’s business councils. The Japanese currency is showing a 0.3% bid going into the London interbank open, although the currency is off its highs. USD-JPY logged a three-day low at 109.76. EUR-JPY also carved out a three-session low. The dollar has traded… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Aug 16, 2017

The dollar was relatively steady through the morning session, though took a late hit following news the president’s policy forum is disbanding, taking EUR-USD to 1.1776 from near 1.1690, and USD-JPY to session lows of 110.15 from near 110.80. Wall Street pared gains in the wake of the announcement, as yields stayed down. The dollar… Read more »

July housing permits and starts continue to fail to make new highs

As of last month, neither permits nor starts had made new highs since winter, and it was sufficient to tip the scales in how I look at the long leading indicators, from positive to neutral. Source: XE news feed July housing permits and starts continue to fail to make new highs

XE Market Analysis: UK Unemployment Falls To Fresh 42-Year Low

OVERVIEW Eurozone second quarter growth was upgraded to 2.2% year-on-year. ECB sources said Mario Draghi won’t discuss monetary policy at next week’s Jackson Hole meeting. US housing starts and building permits both fell in July.  Australian wage growth remained at a record low of 1.9% in the second quarter. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Aug 16, 2017

EUR-USD tipped back under 1.1700 amid a bout of general euro selling during the European morning. EUR-JPY also fell, despite gains in USD-JPY, and other euro crosses traded lower. There didn’t appear to be a specific data or news catalyst, though yesterday’s perky U.S. data (retail sales and Empire State index) continued to have some… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Aug 16, 2017

The dollar majors settled in narrow ranges. USD-JPY lost upside steam as global stock market performance turned more mixed following a rebound phase. The pair settled in the mid 110.00s after a three-day rally capped out yesterday at 110.84, an eight-day peak. EUR-USD planted itself around 1.17740 after logging a one-week low at 1.1687 yesterday,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis – Strong U.S. Data Puts Dollar on The Front Foot

OVERVIEW U.S. retail sales and Empire State Manufacturing both stronger than expected. The German economy grew slightly less than expected in the second quarter, but domestic demand stayed solid. UK inflation was unchanged in July and price pressures eased sharply, putting the Pound under pressure. Australia’s central bank was upbeat over the economy’s prospects and… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Aug 15, 2017

The dollar rallied broadly after the better mix of U.S. data, where retail sales, the Empire State index, and home builder sentiment all beat expectations. Wall Street opened higher, though later faded to mildly red territory, as underlying geopolitical sentiment remained cautious. EUR-USD fell to 1.1688 lows after the data, before later rallying back to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Aug 15, 2017

The dollar remained bid for a second day, trading to three-session highs versus the euro, one-week highs against the yen, and in one-month high terrain in the case against the pound, with Cable finding extra bearish assistance from cooler than exepected inflation data out of the UK. Amid the firmer dollar theme, the yen underperformed… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Aug 15, 2017

USD-JPY extended its rebound for a third session, today making a one-week high at 110.45. EUR-JPY also rose, logging a one-week peak just above 130.0, and other yen crosses also gained. The recovery in risk appetite, as cooler heads prevail in the North Korean situation, has remained the central theme behind broad yen weakening. USD-JPY… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Aug 14, 2017

The dollar was little changed overall in N.Y. trade on Monday, with major pairings keeping inside of relatively narrow trading bands. Risk appetite returned after N. Korea/U.S. rhetoric was ratcheted down over the weekend, as a diplomatic path remains in favor, which kept the greenback underpinned. EUR-USD topped at 1.1802 early, and later managed 1.1770… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Japan's Economy Surges as Domestic Demand Strengthens

OVERVIEW Risk sentiment has improved after U.S. military officials downplayed risks of imminent confrontation with North Korea. Safe-haven Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen are both weaker. Eurozone industrial output dropped more than expected in June. New Zealand retail sales beat expectations, rising 2% in the second quarter. Chinese industrial output, investment, and retail sales all… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Aug 14, 2017

The dollar recovered some of Friday’s lost ground, seen after the tepid CPI data out of the U.S. EUR-USD ebbed back under 1.1800, putting in some distance from Friday’s 10-day high at 1.1847. USD-JPY led gains as the yen came under pressure concomitantly with an improvement in risk appetite, with stocks in both Asia and… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Aug 14, 2017

The dollar steadied after Friday’s tip lower in the wake of the Fed-outlook-muddying CPI data out of the U.S., while the yen came under general pressure as risk appetite made a recovery in early-week trading, and despite much stronger than expected Japanese GDP data. USD-JPY and EUR-JPY lifted to respective two- and four-session highs at… Read more »

US Equity and Economic Week in Review: Is Softer Consumer Spending Fatal?

            Consumer spending – which accounts for 70% of U.S. gross domestic product – has softened since the beginning of the year.  The drop is not fatal and could be reversed over the next 6 to 12 months, allaying the concerns expressed here.  But the modest downtrend has occurred long enough to cause concern. … Read more »

US Equity and Economic Week in Review: The Markets Took A Technical Hit Last Week

     Thanks to geopolitical events, the markets sold off this week.  There was sufficient technical damage to change the market’s currently bullish sentiment.              Let’s start with several 5-minute charts: Source: XE news feed US Equity and Economic Week in Review: The Markets Took A Technical Hit Last Week

Weekly Indicators: dog days edition

July data consisted of a weakly positive CPI plus a weakly negative PPI. June data included a rise in both wholesale sales and inventories, a slight decline in the JOLTS measures of hires and quits, but a one year high in layoffs and discharges, and a new all-time high in openings. In the rear view… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Aug 11, 2017

The dollar nose-dived after the cooler U.S. CPI data in N.Y. trade on Friday, sending yields lower in the process. Equity futures, which had been under water ahead of the numbers, bounced on a bad new is good news effect, and later, Wall Street posted modest gains. EUR-USD popped to one-week highs of 1.1835 from… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Risk Off Sentiment Dominates World Markets

OVERVIEW US Dollar slides as CPI disappoints. Sterling ends the week down across the board on a poor economic outlook. Euro remains strong on positive sentiment for the single currency. Korean Won continues its slide on the growing tensions between the US and North Korea. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Risk… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: Another Underwhelming Inflation Report

        Today’s inflation report was underwhelming, further confirming that upward price pressures are contained.  Core and overall CPI are 1.7% Y/Y: Source: XE news feed US Bond Market Week in Review: Another Underwhelming Inflation Report

XE Market Analysis: North America – Aug 11, 2017

After modest gyrations overnight, the dollar is little changed from Thursday’s N.Y. closing levels. EUR-USD trades near 1.1765, with USD-JPY at 109.15, after printing new two-month lows of 108.91 in London. Risk-off conditions have again largely prevailed, with the U.S/N. Korea war of words driving market fears. USD-CAD has remained over the 1.2700 mark, as… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Aug 11, 2017

USD-JPY dove to a new eight-week low, this time at 108.90, and EUR-JPY fell to a one-month low at 128.18 as the yen continued to rally as investors flocked to safe haven assets and currencies. The Swissie has been relatively soft, weakening over the last day versus the yen, illustrating that Swiss currency has lost… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Aug 10, 2017

Risk-off remained front and center in N.Y. trade on Thursday, leaving the dollar mostly lower. Softer U.S. PPI data didn’t help the greenback, which lost ground to the euro and yen, while making marginal gains against the CAD and pound. EUR-USD topped at 1.1772 from lows of 1.1718, as USD-JPY printed nearly two-month lows of… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: New Zealand Dollar Slides After RBNZ Warning

OVERVIEW  Fed Vice Chairman, Dudley, said he expects U.S. inflation to increase over the medium term to 2%. U.S. producer prices fell at the fastest pace in nearly a year. U.K. RICS survey showed house price growth at its weakest in over 4 years. U.K. trade deficit widened unexpectedly in June as exports fell almost… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Aug 10, 2017

Risk aversion remained in play despite U.S. Secretary of State Tillerson’s reassurances. USD-JPY turned back under 110.00 after failing to sustain gains above here during the Tokyo session, making an intraday low at 109.76 but remaining above yesterday’s eight-week low at 109.56. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses also turned lower, with the yen remaining in… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Aug 10, 2017

The dollar majors have been steady, while the New Zealand dollar has taken a hit following dovish guidance from the RBNZ policymakers in the wake of its expected decision to leave its cash rate at 1.75%. While the Kiwi central bank’s SMP wasn’t as dovish as markets had anticipated, RBNZ’s McDermott subsequently advised markets to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North Korea Threat Unsettles Markets

OVERVIEW Markets are in a very risk averse mood following North Korea’s missile threat. Trump is vowing to respond with “fire and fury” adding to nervousness. Chinese factory price inflation held steady in July which is a positive sign for businesses. South Africa’s president survived another no-confidence vote. Australian consumer sentiment fell to its lowest… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Aug 09, 2017

The dollar firmed up some in morning N.Y. trade on Wednesday, with gains coming from comments from U.S. SecState downplaying the chances of conflict with N. Korea. General risk-off conditions prevailed however, following Trump’s “fire and fury” statement, and Pyongyang’s subsequent threat to attack Guam. Wall Street ended lower, though losses were relatively narrow. EUR-USD… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Aug 09, 2017

A risk-off sentiment supported the yen and Swiss franc as safe haven currencies and assets came into demand amid an escalation in threatening rhetoric between North Korea and the U.S, with Trump promising Pyongyang “fire and fury” and North Korea responding by threatening to strike Guam. USD-JPY dove to a seven-week low at 109.65, and… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Aug 09, 2017

A risk-off sentiment supported the yen and Swiss franc as safe haven currencies and assets came into demand amid an escalation in threatening rhetoric between North Korea and the U.S, with Trump promising Pyongyang “fire and fury.” North Korea’s development of nuclear warhead carrying ICBM capability is the issue, and the flare up in tensions… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: British Pound At 10-month Versus Euro

OVERVIEW The Dollar is recovering in generally quiet summer markets despite dovish Fed comments. China’s exports and imports grew less than expected in July. South African Rand is unchanged as the market eagerly awaits the Zuma no confidence vote. German exports unexpectedly fell 2.8% in June, the biggest drop in almost 2 years. The BRC… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Aug 08, 2017

The dollar rallied to intra day highs versus the major currencies at mid-morning in N.Y on Tuesday, with the only obvious factors being the record JOLTS job openings figures, and the uptick in the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index. EUR-USD fell to eight-session lows of 1.1716, while USD-JPY has topped 110.83, up from session lows of… Read more »

A noisy long leading indicator turns negative

There is a variety of economic commentators I call Doomers.  They haven’t seen a single piece of positive news for the entire duration of the eight year expansion. Everything is always on the cusp of imploding or crashing. Because of their strong point of view, and because of confirmation bias, they attract a loyal —… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Aug 08, 2017

EUR-USD remained directionally challenged, holding a narrow orbit of the 1.1800 level, above last Friday’s post-U.S. payrolls at 1.1728 while comfortably below last Wednesday’s 31-month peak at 1.1910. NZD-USD continued to trade heavily into the RBNZ meeting on Thursday amid expectations for the central bank to lay down some relatively dovish guidance given low inflation… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Aug 08, 2017

Narrow ranges have prevailed so far today. USD-JPY saw modest downside drift during the Tokyo session, making a two-session low at 110.54. Bigger than expected declines in both Chinese import and export data put a dent in global growth optimism and weighed on stock markets in the Asia region, in turn catalysing some demand for… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Aug 07, 2017

The dollar edged slightly higher in N.Y. trade on Monday, though the DXY was unable to top Friday’s one-week gains to 93.77, topping at 93.54. There was no data to drive the FX market, with traders largely taking a wait and see stance ahead of U.S. inflation data later in the week. EUR-USD ranged between… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Aug 07, 2017

EUR-USD ebbed back under 1.1800 after a short-lived push above this level, leaving a high at 1.1814. Euro crosses saw a similar price action. EUR-CHF, for instance, briefly popped its head above 1.1500 before dipping back below it. Both EUR-USD and EUR-CHF remain well within their respective ranges of Friday. An unexpected 1.1% m/m dip… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Aug 07, 2017

The dollar has consolidated its post-payrolls gains of Friday, and looks set to remain buoyant with Fed speakers this week likely to affirm rekindled market expectations for further tightening. With the Fed seen heading for quantitative tightening as soon as September, U.S. July inflation data, due on Thursday (PPI figures) and Friday (CPI figures), will… Read more »

US Equity and Economic Week in Review: Should We Worry About Somewhat Weaker Personal Spending Figures?

            The employment report was this week’s most notable economic release.  Total jobs increased 209,000 while the unemployment rate was unchanged.  Most importantly, the 3, 6 and 12-month moving averages of monthly job growth are all between 150,000 and 200,000: Source: XE news feed US Equity and Economic Week in Review: Should We… Read more »