Category: Financial Markets

Financial markets news from external sources.

XE Market Analysis: Trade War Concerns Hit Canadian Dollar and Mexican Peso

OVERVIEW USD lower as Trump’s trade threats concern investors. The Euro is relatively stable as positive German coalition news are offset by the Italy outcome. GBP rising after stronger PMI data, and PM May’s comments on the Brexit transition. CAD is weakening on trade concerns. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Trade… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Mar 05, 2018

The dollar lost ground through the morning session in N.Y. trade on Monday, though later pared losses as stocks recovered. The DXY bottomed at 89.88, after opening at around 90.15, later recovering to just over 90.00. EUR-USD bottomed at 1.2283 into the open, and later topped at 1.2350, before settling near 1.2325. USD-JPY found its… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Mar 05, 2018

The dollar and yen have been trading firmly against most other currencies in early-week trading, with the euro and Australian dollar have been underperformers as markets digest European election results and prospects for trade wars, with Trump having doubled down and ratcheted up his warring words on Twitter over the weekend. The Italian election has… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Mar 05, 2018

The dollar and yen have been trading firmly against most other currencies in early-week trading, with the euro and Australian dollar have been underperformers as markets digest European election results and prospects for trade wars, with Trump having doubled down and ratcheted up his warring words on Twitter over the weekend. Stock markets declined in… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: Let's Hope This Trade War Madness Ends Quickly

      Obviously, this week’s most important international trade news was the Trump administration’s imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.  It is difficult to overstate the abject stupidity underlying this development.  As anyone with any sense and the economic history is aware, this exact same development -the imposition of tariffs -was a… Read more »

US Economic Week in Review: Still Humming Along

            This week’s data was mixed.  4Q17 GDP was strong and personal consumption expenditures increased at a solid pace.  Weakness in recent housing numbers was most likely weather-related; regions that experienced above average inclement weather saw lower activity.  Inventory issues continue to crimp the existing home sales market.  However, mortgage… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: significant deceleration in real M1 edition

February data started out with unchanged vehicle sales, a strongly positive ISM manufacturing index, and a Chicago PMI that declined from white hot to red hot. Consumer sentiment as measured by the U. of Michigan improved. Source: XE news feed Weekly Indicators: significant deceleration in real M1 edition

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Mar 02, 2018

The dollar steadied some on Friday in N.Y., though overall remained near its lows of the week as fallout from tariffs weighed. The DXY bottomed at 89.89, the lowest seen since Tuesday. EUR-USD ranged between 1.2294 and 1.2332, as USD-JPY made its way from 15-month lows of 105.25 to a high of 105.68 before turning… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Mar 02, 2018

The dollar came under pressure as the markets continued digest the Trump move on tariffs and yesterday’s walk back of hawkishness by Fed Chairman Powell. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) was showing a 0.4% decline as of the early European PM session, bringing the cumulative loss from yesterday’s peak to 1.1%. Source: XE… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Mar 02, 2018

The dollar remained on a back foot following Trump’s apparent hitting of the trade way button, although it remains to be seen how targeted his proposed tariffs on steel and aluminium will be. Fed policy expectations remains in the spotlight, too, with hawkish remarks from Fed member Dudley serving to offset the impact from Fed… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Dollar is Strong on Interest Rate Outlook

OVERVIEW The Euro is weaker as the central bank policy in the EU diverges with most other major central banks. The Sterling falters ahead of Theresa May’s speech on Friday. Eyes are on FED Chair Powel who is testifying again this afternoon. HIGHLIGHT The US Dollar continued its surge stronger across currencies today after yesterday’s… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Mar 01, 2018

The DXY lost some ground through the N.Y. session, after opening at better than one-month highs of 90.93. The greenback sold off through the morning as Wall Street rallied, though later bounced following the announcement of the imposition of tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which saw stocks tumble severely. EUR-USD bottomed at 1.2155 before… Read more »

A change in economic seasons? (Part 2 of 2)

In part 1 of this post, I mentioned that the relationship between stock dividend yields and bond yields (in particular, the 2 year treasury yield) had reversed recently for the first time in nearly a decade. For 50 years, bond yields were higher than stock dividends. After the great recession, stock dividend yields rivaled bond yields… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Mar 01, 2018

The dollar has remained underpinned versus most currencies, bolstering to the USD index (DXY) to a five-week high of 90.78 and pushing EUR-USD to a six-week low of 1.2179. AUD-USD has registered the biggest move in trade so far on the calendar day out of the currencies we track, showing a 0.4% decline, with the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Mar 01, 2018

The dollar has remained underpinned versus most currencies, bolstering to the USD index (DXY) to a five-week high of 90.74 and pushing EUR-USD to a six-week low of 1.2183. AUD-USD has registered the biggest move in trade so far on the calendar day out of the currencies we track, showing a 0.4% decline, with the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 28, 2018

The dollar added to post-Powell gains in N.Y. on Wednesday, taking the DXY to 90.69, a better than one-month high. Treasury yields remained elevated despite a small GDP revision miss, and a softer Chicago PMI. Wall Street started higher, turned negative, then rallied once again. EUR-USD bottomed at .12188, level last seen on January 18…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: British Pound Slides on Brexit Divide

OVERVIEW USD is firmer following the Fed chair’s positive outlook. The Euro is weaker as inflation eases. GBP under pressure from Brexit developments. CAD remains under pressure alongside oil prices.  HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: British Pound Slides on Brexit Divide

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 28, 2018

The dollar and yen have outperformed today, the former following yesterday’s testimony of new Fed Chairman Powell and the latter after the BoJ trimmed purchases of super long JGBs in a regular QQE operation today. EUR-USD fell to a six-week low of 1.2198, Cable logged a four-session low of 1.3858, and USD-CAD rallied to a… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 28, 2018

The yen outperformed on a BoJ taper, while the dollar, outside of USD-JPY, held firm in the wake of the new Fed Chairman Powell’s Congressional testimony yesterday. EUR-USD edged out a 19-day low of 1.2215. USD-JPY, meanwhile, ebbed back to the 107.00 level, giving back gains seen on the back of Powell’s upbeat view of… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 27, 2018

The dollar rallied in N.Y. on Tuesday, taking it cue from Fed chair Powell’s inaugural congressional testimony, which was upbeat on the outlook, and saw the market price in 3 rate hikes this year. Yields rose, while Wall Street headed lower on the prospects of further tightening. The DXY shot up to nearly three-week highs… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Dollar Rises as New Fed Chair Says Economy is Strengthening

OVERVIEW USD jumps higher on upbeat comments from the new Fed chair. The Euro softens on weak German inflation data. GBP slightly softer as EU negotiator warns of significant differences with the UK. SEK weaker on signs central bank may have to delay rate hikes. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Dollar… Read more »

A change in economic seasons? (Part 1 of 2)

Something happened during the recent V-shaped selloff in the stock that made me think we may be on the cusp of a secular change, and it called back to mind a forecast I made nearly eight years ago. http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2010/09/stocks-bonds-and-dumb-money-message-of.html Source: XE news feed A change in economic seasons? (Part 1 of 2)

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 27, 2018

The dollar majors have been directionally challenged as market participants sit on their hands into the Congressional testimony of the new Fed chairman, Powell. USD-JPY has held a narrow range, logging a high of 107.10 before settling in the upper 106.00s, holding comfortably within yesterday’s range. EUR-USD logged an intraday peak at 1.2346 in early… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 27, 2018

The dollar majors have posted narrow ranges so far today as many market participants sit on their hands into the Congressional testimony of the new Fed chairman, Powell. USD-JPY has held a narrow range, logging a high of 107.10 before settling in the upper 106.00s, holding comfortably within yesterday’s range. EUR-USD lifted to an intraday… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 26, 2018

The dollar rallied broadly in N.Y. on Monday, though ended off its best levels. The DXY topped at 90.04 from 59.51 lows, before settling around 89.90. EUR-USD opened just over 1.2325, dipped to 1.2278, then steadied just over 1.2300. USD-JPY opened at 106.75, and later topped at 107.07. USD-CAD topped at 1.2711, though was pushed… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Sterling Steady as Brexit Negotiations Continue

OVERVIEW USD remains stable while the probability of a rate hike next month increases. GBP shrugs off Brexit news and remains stable. The Euro sidelines as we wait for the Italian elections and results from the SPD membership vote. The Russian Rouble outperforms as Russia’s sovereign rating returns to investment grade. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 26, 2018

EUR-USD clocked a three-session high of 1.2355 on a continued dollar softness. The euro is trading more mixed versus other currencies, losing ground to sterling and Australian dollar, while gaining moderately versus the yen, suggesting that forex markets are not too perturbed by the next weekend’s general election in Italy, where attention will be on… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 26, 2018

The dollar has traded softer in early week trading, once again correlating inversely with global stock market direction. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) logged a three-session low of 89.60 as EUR-USD clocked a two-session high of 1.2334. USD-JPY has ebbed for a fourth consecutive session, logging one-week lows under 106.50 after a rally in… Read more »

US Economic Week in Review: All Signs Point Towards 12-18 Months of Growth

           This week’s US economic news flow was light.  I’ll cover the Federal Reserve’s Minutes in the bond market column and, to give a complete picture of the housing market, I’ll wait for next week’s release of new home sales to talk about this week’s existing home sales numbers.  This week’s… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: Slightly Faster Growth Brings the Hawks Out

            Perhaps it’s only fitting that a potentially new interest rate regime comes with a new head of the Federal Reserve.  President Yellen oversaw her last meeting In January where policymakers saw slightly faster growth in the existing data while also projecting stonger growth in the next 12-24 months.  This conclusion, which was widely reported… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: coincident rough patch continues edition

January data this week was sparse: existing home sales were negative, but the Index of Leading Indicators was strongly positive.   Source: XE news feed Weekly Indicators: coincident rough patch continues edition

XE Market Analysis: Canadian CPI Cools Less Than Forecast

OVERVIEW USD closing the week marginally firmer. GBP higher on positive tone from government strategy meeting. EUR weaker as inflation remained soft last month.  JPY rises despite still weak inflation. HIGHLIGHT Canadian annual inflation cooled less than expected last month with CPI rising 1.7%, down from 1.9% in December. With core inflation averaging 1.8%, the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 23, 2018

The dollar traded mostly sideways in N.Y. on Friday. There was no data to move markets, though Wall Street posted gains, and yields moved a bit lower relative to Thursday’s close. EUR-USD meandered inside a 1.2318 to 1.2286 band, while USD-JPY managed a narrow 106.90 to 106.52 range. USD-CAD dipped on hotter Canadian CPI data,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 23, 2018

The dollar has traded moderately higher, heading into the London interbank open with a 0.3% advance versed the euro, Swiss franc and yen, and comparatively more modest gains against the Australian and Canadian dollars. The New Zealand dollar has stood out as the weakness currency of the units we track, with a 0.7% loss versus… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 22, 2018

The dollar moved off of its eight session hi in N.Y. trade on Thursday, leaving the DXY at 89.64 lows, down from 90.23 overnight highs. Incoming data was better than expected, as jobless claims fell, and leading indicators were better than forecast. There was little FX reaction however. Risk appetite picked up, with Wall Street… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Japanese Yen Rises After Hawkish FOMC Minutes

OVERVIEW USD struggles to hold onto overnight gains following FOMC minutes. EUR broadly higher despite weaker Ifo and slightly dovish ECB minutes. GBP is mixed with economic growth data revised down. CAD weaker after retail sales decline. MXN rises as CPI cools, easing pressure on incomes.  HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis:… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 22, 2018

The dollar came off the boil during the London AM session after posting fresh gains in Asia. USD-JPY was an exception, having dipped quite sharply at the Tokyo fixing (on netted out corporate demand for yen), posting a low at 107.15, before recouping. EUR-USD recouped toward 1.2300. A miss in the February German Ifo business… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 22, 2018

The dollar has continued to mostly trade firmer, this time amid a backdrop of fresh equity market declines on Wall Street and in Asia (which the exception of Chinese markets, which have been playing catch-up following the prolonged Lunar New Year break). This followed minutes of the FOMC meeting, where bullets about upside risk to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 21, 2018

The dollar edged higher through the morning session in N.Y. on Wednesday, taking the DXY to six-session highs of 89.99. The greenback later moved lower on the FOMC minutes, as the Fed said a gradual approach to tightening remained appropriate, and as it sees few signs of broad wage growth increases (which got markets in… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Sterling Under Pressure as UK Jobless Rate Rises

OVERVIEW GBP is trading at a disadvantage due to calls for gaining full regulatory autonomy after Brexit and the jobless rate rises. The Canadian Dollar continues to weaken as oil prices drop and the US Dollar resurges. The Euro is trading at a disadvantage against the US Dollar as the Purchasing Managers Indexes for both the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 21, 2018

The dollar continued to hold firm. EUR-USD extended lower for a fourth consecutive session, logging a four-session low of 1.2307, which extends the correction from the 38-month high seen on Friday at 1.2556. The day’s low was seen in the wake of the release of preliminary Eurozone February PMI survey data, which missed expectations and… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 21, 2018

The dollar has remained buoyant, led by gains in USD-JPY, whicih lifted for a fourth straight session in logging a four-session high of 107.90, extending the rebound from the 15-month low seen last Thursday at 105.54. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses are also firmer, though by a lesser magnitude than USD-JPY, as a broader bid… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Adds to Gains

OVERVIEW USD trading broadly higher. GBP higher on a report that the EU parliament will allow ‘privileged’ access to the single market. CAD weaker after dropping in wholesale trade. EUR softer after a drop in German ZEW survey. AUD flat after RBA minutes signal rates to remain on hold. SEK falls sharply after inflation miss…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 20, 2018

The dollar was fairly steady in N.Y. trade on Tuesday, leaving the DXY over its 20-day moving average of 89.43 through the day. There was no U.S. data to drive the FX market, though trend high Treasury yields helped the greenback generally. EUR-USD bottomed at 1.2320 before edging higher, while USD-JPY was steady, maintaining altitude… Read more »

How much must interest rates spike for the economy to roll over?

Interest rates are the most potent background long leading indicators. Last week I wrote that I did not see them as having risen enough at this time to cause a recession, and noted that I thought they had to rise to at least about 3.25%, and for a sufficient period of time.   Source:… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 20, 2018

The dollar has been in rebound mode after making fresh major-trend lows on Friday, gaining yesterday in the absence of North American and a number of major Asian markets, and extending further upward today. The gain was concomitant with market narratives talking about the rise in 2-year Treasury yields to near 10-year highs (which has… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 20, 2018

The dollar continued to hold firm, extending the same theme for a second day. This came with 2-year U.S. Treasury yields rising to a near 10-year high in Asia today, and with stock market sentiment having soured somewhat following a week-long rebound. The USD index (DXY) posted a four-session high of 89.44, extending the rebound… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 19, 2018

The dollar traded generally firmer today in low volumes with a number of Asian nations enjoying public holidays today, including China, Hong Kong and Taiwan. North American markets will also be absent today. EUR-USD logging a two-session low of 1.2392, and USD-JPY recouped above 106.60, extending a rebound from Friday’s 15-month low at 105.52. The… Read more »

US Economic Week in Review: Some Disappointing Coincidental Numbers

            This was a mixed week for U.S. economic data.  One leading indicator – the 4-week moving average of unemployment claims – was positive.  But while the headline number for building permits was very strong (+7.4%), a huge jump in multi-unit structures (5+ unit permits rose 25%) were responsible for… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: An Overblown Inflation Fear

          At this point, I almost feel unqualified to talk about inflation and inflationary pressures in the economy.  I have, after all, spent the better part of the last 4-5 years discussing the possibility of deflation or, more specifically, weak pricing pressures.  I also have to admit to a fair amount… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: The Global Growth Wave Continues

            The overall trend of major international news continues to trend in a positive direction.  Japan is on solid growth footing while EU news is well into its second year of an overall bullish tone.  Australia’s employment situation continues to improve.  The only weak spot is the UK, where retail sales… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: payroll tax withholding falls off a cliff edition

January data this week included very positive housing permits and starts, as well as very positive consumer confidence as measured by the U. of Michigan. Industrial production and capacity utilization were negative, as were retail sales. Consumer prices increased a significant +0.5%, and producer prices increased significantly as well.  Source: XE news feed Weekly… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 16, 2018

The dollar bounced modestly to end the week in N.Y. on Friday, with the move largely attributed to short covering into what will be a long U.S. weekend. The DXY advanced from three-plus year lows of 88.26 seen overnight, topping at 89.04 following strong housing starts data, and firmer import prices. EUR-USD opened over 1.2460,… Read more »

Real retail sales in depth: positive for 2018

January retail sales were reported on Wednesday.  This is a good time for me to update my look at real retail sales, which I find to be one of the most useful metrics to gauge the economy in several ways.   Source: XE news feed Real retail sales in depth: positive for 2018

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 16, 2018

The dollar has lifted out of new lows were seen in Tokyo. The USD index (DXY) is now showing a fractional 0.1% gain after showing a 0.3% decline at the lows. The index left a 37-month low at 88.26, and is presently trading at 88.70. EUR-USD tipped nearly 80 pips from the the 38-month high… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 16, 2018

Another day, another decline in the dollar, which logged a new 38-month low versus the euro, at 1.2554, and a 15-month low against the yen, at 105.54. The USD index (DXY) is down by 0.3%, 88.37, earlier clocking a 37-month low at 88.33. The greenback has also seen fresh lows against most newly developed and… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 15, 2018

The dollar was mostly steady through the N.Y. session on Thursday, with the dollar initially supported by warmer PPI data. Softer industrial production later weighed slightly. The DXY traded a relatively narrow range on either side of 88.80. EUR-USD ranged between 1.2505 and 1.2458, while USD-JPY recovered from 106.20 lows, to peak at 106.85. USD-CAD… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Slides as Risk Appetite Returns

OVERVIEW USD under broad-based pressure despite 10-year treasury yields rising to highest in 4 years. US industrial production falls unexpectedly in January. Japanese Yen rises to multi-year high, BoJ board member Aso plays down intervention talk. French unemployment falls to its lowest since 2009. Canadian home sales drop as new mortgage rules kick in.  Oil… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 15, 2018

The dollar recouped some lost ground after posted fresh losses in Asia and in the early European AM session. The USD index (DXY) was off its lows but showing a 0.3% decline as of the early London PM session. EUR-USD settled back toward the mid 1.24s after logging a two-week high of 1.2510, and USD-JPY… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 15, 2018

The dollar has declined for a fourth-straight session versus the euro and other currencies. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) is presently at a two-week low of 88.80, showing a 0.3% decline on the day and now racking up a 1.8% loss on the week so far. EUR-USD lifted to a two-week peak of 1.2487,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Faster US Inflation Supports Rate Hike Concerns

OVERVIEW US CPI above forecast in January as yields rise. USD rises on inflation data but then fell on Russia memo concerns. SA Rand rises as ANC put pressure on President Zuma. Japan’s economy grew 0.1% in Q4, posting it as the longest continuous expansion since the 1980s.  Eurozone Q4 GDP growth in line with… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 14, 2018

Hot U.S. CPI data, and a surge in Treasury yields dod little to help the dollar on N.Y. on Wednesday. While the greenback popped briefly after the data, sellers quicjly stepped in, taking the DXY to eight session lows of 89.07. The U.S. deficit outlook may be behind some of the USD’s struggles this week,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 14, 2018

The dollar rebounded during the London AM session after declining in Asia. Position squaring was reported with market participants eyeing the release of the U.S. CPI data for January, which may have a potentially large bearing on Fed tightening expectations. EUR-USD ascended to a five-day high of 1.2392 before ebbing back toward the mid 1.23s…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 14, 2018

The dollar continued to deflate, led by ongoing and relatively hefty decline in USD-JPY, which has declined for a fifth straight session and is heading into the London AM session with a 0.5% loss on the day so far. The yen’s outperformance also continued to weigh on yen crosses, which many are taking as portending… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 13, 2018

The DXY was marginally lower in N.Y. trade on Tuesday, dipping from 89.84 opening highs to 89.61, before heading back to 89.75. Wall Street was soggy through the morning session, though managed a moderate afternoon rally to close higher. Yields were little changed ahead of the key CPI report on Wednesday. EUR-US opened near 1.2330,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Japanese Yen Hits Five-Month Highs as Markets Remain Nervous

OVERVIEW GBP rises after higher UK inflation data.  Yen rises over 1%, prompting comments from the government minister. South Africa’s President Zuma is recalled by his ANC party and will respond by tomorrow. Global stocks are under pressure as risk aversion is driving FX gains for CHF and JPY. Oil prices are at two-month lows… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 13, 2018

USD-JPY led broader dollar declines today, which was further aided by a rally in Cable following above-forecast CPI data out of the UK. USD-JPY dove over 1%, more than double the decline the dollar has seen so far versus the euro and other currencies today, in making a five-month low of 107.41. This has swung… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 13, 2018

The dollar traded mostly lower as the global equity rebound extended in Asia after Wall Street yesterday completed its biggest two-day rebound in just over two years. The U.S. currency has been correlating inversely with global stock market direction of late on the causation that risk-on phases have seen investors divest of dollars and dollar… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 12, 2018

The dollar lost some ground overall in N.Y. trade on Monday, leaving the DXY at lows of 90.19, down from early highs at 90.43. The unwinding of safe-haven dollar buying seen amid the equity meltdown last week came undone to a degree. EUR-USD topped at 1.2290 from opening lows of 1.2235. USD-JPY remained above 108.50,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Slow Start to the Week in Currency Markets

OVERVIEW US Dollar claws back lost ground on stronger equity markets and risk sentiment shift. The Pound lost ground on the transition of uncertainty. South African Rand spikes higher on rumors that the President has agreed to step down. HIGHLIGHT There is no highlight for today’s market analysis.  Source: XE news feed XE Market… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 12, 2018

The dollar mostly recovered moderate losses seen in Asia, where conditions were thin today in the absence of Tokyo markets. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) is presently down 0.2% at 90.24, up from the day’s low at 90.08, which is a two-session low. EUR-USD backed off after logging a high of 1.2297, with the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 12, 2018

The dollar has started the week on a softer tack amid an improved risk appetite sentiment and firmer stock markets. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) is down 0.3%, near the day’s low at 90.08, which is a two-session low. EUR-USD has lifted to the upper 1.22s, logging a peak at 1.2297 after opening in… Read more »

US Economic Week in Review: The Manufacturing and Service Sector Economies Are Doing Well

            Over the last two weeks, the Institute of Supply Management has released their latest purchasing managers index of the manufacturing and service sector.  Both were positive, showing an underlying economic strength that belies the recent market carnage.  In today’s column, I’ll organize the related economic data around these reports… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: Yields Are Rising

We’ve seen a lot of upward movement in the yield curve this year, especially in the long-end: Source: XE news feed US Bond Market Week in Review: Yields Are Rising

Weekly Indicators: forecast positive despite stock market gyrations edition

There was no January data this week. Wholesale inventories rose in December, but sales rose even more, driving the inventory to sales ratio down, also a positive. The JOLTS report for December was also positive. Source: XE news feed Weekly Indicators: forecast positive despite stock market gyrations edition

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 09, 2018

The dollar firmed up some overall in N.Y. trade on Friday, support generally by safe-haven flows, the result of another Wall Street selloff. The DXY climbed to 90.56 highs from opening levels near 90.20. EUR-USD bottomed at 1.2206 from 1.2279 highs before bouncing to 1.2235, while USD-JPY remained correlated to equities, hitting 108.05, five-month lows…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 09, 2018

The dollar traded steady-to-firmer today. EUR-USD drifted back under 1.2250 after a rebound capped out at 1.2287, shy of yesterday’s 1.2295 high to maintain the run of lower highs that’s been seen since the release of the January U.S. jobs report last Friday, which catalysed market expectations for the Fed to recommit to tightening monetary… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 09, 2018

The dollar has been trading mixed, losing ground to the euro, sterling, among other currencies, while gaining on the yen and Australian dollar . USD-JPY clocked a four-day low of 108.49 in the early Tokyo session before rebounding above 109.0, dropping amid a phase of yen buying after the Dow clocked a 4%-plus closing loss… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: British Pound Rallies as BoE Signals More Rate Hikes

OVERVIEW US congressional leaders reach a budget deal that adds to the deficit. GBP higher after Bank of England meeting. The Euro is softer after ECB comments on inflation and stimulus. German trade surplus shrunk for the first time in 8 years in 2017. Stock markets back in the red mark as global interest rates… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 08, 2018

The DXY settled near mid-range in N.Y. on Thursday, bottoming at 90.03, and peaking at 90.42. Wall Street’s plunge resulted in some save-haven USD buying, with the risk-sensitive yen being an exception. USD-JPY fell to 108.59 lows from 10975 early in the session. EUR-USD ranged between 1.2213 and 1.2295. USD-CAD printed 2018 highs of 1.2615… Read more »

Senior Loan Officer Survey confirms looser credit conditions

A few days ago the Fed put out its Senior Loan Officer Survey.  This is a long leading indicator for the economy, as it generally takes a year or two for a loosening or tightening of credit, which is what it measures, to filter through into the wider economy.   Source: XE news feed … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 08, 2018

The dollar has extended gains in London AM trading. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) was showing a net gain of 0.3%, as of the late London AM session , at 90.54, which is 3 cents off the day’s high, itself the loftiest level seen since January 24. EUR-USD logged a 16-day low at 1.2225. … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 08, 2018

The dollar has traded mixed today, gaining moderately versus the euro, sterling, Australian dollar, among other currencies, but holding steady versus the Canadian dollar while gaining for a third straight day versus the yen. The Japanese currency has been coming under pressure as market participants trim safe haven trades as global markets find a toehold,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 07, 2018

The dollar rallied in N.Y. trade on Wednesday, taking the DXY to better than two-week highs of 90.40. EUR-USD fell from 1.2350 highs at the open, to 1.2245. USD-JPY meanwhile, rallied from 109.13 to 109.67, as USD-CAD printed one-month highs of 1.2577 on the back of oil price weakness. Cable found support under 1.3850.[EUR, USD] … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Firming, Stock Markets Recover

OVERVIEW US Senate reportedly agrees on a 2-year government funding deal.  Leaked document shows EU could restrict UK market access during the transition. German parties close to forming a coalition government. German industrial output fell 0.6% in December after surging 3.1% in November. UK house prices fell unexpectedly in January. European stock markets are up… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 07, 2018

The dollar traded mostly firmer as U.S. equity future declines, a shaky finish across Asian bourses and a tumble from intraday highs by the main European stock indexes suggest the risk-off phase may not be over yet. EUR-USD fell to a low of 1.2337, swinging yesterday’s pre-Wall Street rebound low at 1.2313 back into scope…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 07, 2018

The dollar traded mixed versus its major peers and developing world currencies, losing ground to the yen, euro, and sterling, among others, while gaining versus the Australian dollar and some other currencies, including the New Zealand dollar after a short-lived rally the antipodean currency in the wake of an above-forecast Q4 employment report. Source:… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 06, 2018

The dollar started the session on a firmer footing, as it appeared Wall Street would melt down again at the open, which it did. Safe-haven dollar buying was noted before the opening bell, though after plunging initially, stocks turned-tail higher, resulting in dollar selling. USD-JPY was somewhat of an outlier, as it largely maintained its… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 06, 2018

The dollar has held firm, and the yen firmer amid a persisting global risk aversion theme. Japan’s Nikkei closed with a 4.8% loss, and was showing intraday losses of over 6% at the lows, while the Shanghai Composite and Australia’s ASX 200 racked up losses of over 3%, and the main European indexes declines of… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 06, 2018

The dollar has held firm, and the yen firmer amid a persisting global risk aversion theme. Japan’s Nikkei closed with a 4.8% loss, and was showing intraday losses of over 6% at the lows, while the Shanghai Composite and Australia’s ASX 200 racked up losses of over 3%. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) logged… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Sterling Struggles at the Start of the Week

OVERVIEW US Dollar consolidates from Friday’s gains. Theresa May says no to customs union post-Brexit. HIGHLIGHT The US Dollar has consolidated its gains from Friday on the back of a stronger than expected employment number last month. The stock markets continued their move lower while bond yields rose as markets start to believe another rate… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 05, 2018

The dollar was mixed in relatively light trade in N.Y. on Monday, posting modest gains against the CAD and GBP, while ending a bit higher versus the euro, and down against the yen. The services ISM bear expectations and gave the greenback a small boost, though overall FX trade remained nervous given the backdrop of… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 05, 2018

The dollar mostly consolidated at higher levels versus those seen ahead of the U.S. jobs report on Friday, though USD-JPY was an exception, with the pair slipping to the 109.75-85 area as the yen picked up safe haven bids amid a backdrop of coursing risk aversion in global stock markets as investors factor in rising… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 05, 2018

The dollar has been consolidating gains seen on Friday in the wake of the above-forecast U.S. jobs report, which fired up Fed tightening expectations with a strong wage increase component. EUR-USD has been settled around 1.2450, above Friday’s post-data low at 1.2409 but holding some 40 pips below levels that were prevailing ahead of the… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: The Yellen Era Ends With a Bang

            This week was the end of the Yellen era.  She was one of the most accomplished economists to rise to the top the Fed and presided over a period of “moderate” adjustment to monetary policy.  We now enter the Powell era, which, by all accounts, will be a continuation… Read more »

US Economic Week in Review: Consumer Spending is Very Strong

            This week, the economic news centered on the US consumer’s spending habits.  PCEs increased strongly, which is corroborated by recent retail sales figures.  Spending on durable goods was remarkably resilient, which was confirmed by this week’s auto sales numbers.  Finally, the employment situation is strong.  The 4-week moving average… Read more »