Category: Financial Markets

Financial markets news from external sources.

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar and Safe-Haven Rally on Risk Aversion

OVERVIEW US Dollar strengthens across the board, Yen and Swiss Franc also strengthen. EUR falls to fresh lows for the year after survey shows growth slowed further in May. GBP weaker after inflation miss. Turkish Lira’s pain continues, hits fresh record lows. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: US Dollar and Safe-Haven… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 23, 2018

A risk-off theme propelled the yen higher and, to a lesser extent, the dollar, which posted gains against most currencies outside the case versus the Japanese unit. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) has gained 0.4%, though has remained a little short of the five-month high that was seen on Monday at 94.06. EUR-USD traded… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: A Look at Loretta Mester's Hawkish Reasoning

               Loretta Mester is the president of the Cleveland Federal Reserve.  While her speeches are normally more general in nature, her May y14 presentation to the Global Interdependence Center contains more detail, allowing us to better understand her more hawkish analysis of the U.S. economy and Fed policy.             Let’s begin with her general opinion… Read more »

US Economic Week in Review

              This week, the markets received several key pieces of leading and coincidental data.  Let’s start with 1-unit building permits, which has a bullish economic backdrop.  The labor market is strong.  While interest rates are increasing, the average 30-year mortgage is slightly below 4.6%; while high by recent standards, it’s low historically.  New homes sales… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: long term forecast deteriorates further edition

 April data included an increase in industrial production, capacity utilization, and both nominal and real retail sales. Both housing permits and starts declined slightly from their previous record pace for this expansion. Nevertheless the Index of Leading Indicators was positive.   Source: XE news feed Weekly Indicators: long term forecast deteriorates further edition

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 18, 2018

The USD index (DXY) clocked a new five-month high, at 93.83, aided by a post-data surge in USD-CAD and continued buoyancy in USD-JPY, which earlier posted a four-month high at 111.08. Weaker than expected inflation data out of Japan has been underpinning the dollar against the yen. EUR-USD, meanwhile, has edged out a fresh five-month… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: G10 and EM Currencies Rattled by Resurgent US Dollar

OVERVIEW The Greenback is closing on strongly for the fifth week in a row, 0.11% against the basket of major currencies. Turkish Lira and the South African Rand weakened to fresh lows as EM currencies continue to slump. West Texas Intermediate at $71.57 barrel, up 8 cents amidst geopolitical risks and supply tightening. HIGHLIGHT … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 18, 2018

EUR-USD ebbed back under 1.1800 as market participants cast a wary eye on political developments in Italy, though Wednesday’s five-month low at 1.1763 remained untroubled. The 10-year U.S. T-note yield also touched a new seven-year high above 3.11%, before backing to around 3.10%. USD-JPY traded above 111.00 for the first time since January, a move… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 18, 2018

The yen have traded softer into the London interbank open, which saw USD-JPY touch 111.00 for the first time since January while concurrently lifting yen crosses. AUD-JPY, for instance, clocked a one-month high. A dip in Japanese inflation data weighed on the yen. Headline April CPI fell to a rate of 0.6% y/y from 1.1%… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 17, 2018

FX trade was relatively quiet in N.Y. on Thursday, keeping the DXY inside a 93.38 to 93.56 trading range, and the major dollar pairings range bound. EUR-USD ranged between 1.1785 and 1.1812, while USD-JPY topped at new trend highs of 110.86 before slipping back to 110.63 lows. Cable was sideways on either side of 1.3500,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 17, 2018

EUR-USD turned back under 1.1800 after rebound gains stalled at 1.1837. The political evolutions in Italy have continued to see Italian yields rise, and with them other peripheral Eurozone sovereign yields while safe-haven demand for German paper has suppressed Bund yields, which in turn has been weighing on the euro. USD-JPY printed a new 13-week… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 17, 2018

The dollar and yen traded moderately lower during the Tokyo session, ahead of the London interbank open. USD-JPY has oscillated in the lower 110.0s, holding in a consolidation below the 13-week high that was posted yesterday at 110.45. The intraday low so far is 110.07. Sterling rallied on reports that the UK government will agree… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Dollar Firm, Euro Falls on Italian Political Concerns

OVERVIEW US Dollar made fresh highs before giving back some ground despite solid data. EUR slides below 1.18 as Italian political parties agree to form a government.  GBP little changed, towards recent lows. CAD outperforming other G10 currencies after strong factory sales. Turkish Lira hits a fresh record low, central bank promises ‘necessary steps’ to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 16, 2018

The dollar firmness theme mutated into a specific EUR-USD weakness theme, with the pairing trading under the 1.1800 level for the first time since December while the dollar concurrent gave back some of the gains it saw yesterday versus the yen, Canadian dollar and other currencies. EUR-USD posted a five-month low at 1.1794. Euro underperformance… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 16, 2018

The dollar has been buoyed by rising U.S. Treasury yields. The U.S. 10-year T-note hit a seven-year high above 3.03% while Fed funds futures were, as of the PM session on Wall Street yesterday, fully pricing in at 25 bp tightening at the June 12th-13th FOMC while discounting about 80% odds for another quarter point… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 15, 2018

The DXY surged to 2018 highs in N.Y. trade on Tuesday, with the dollar taking its cue from decent incoming U.S. data in the form of retail sales and Empire State index, and the resultant pop in Treasury yields to multi-year highs. The higher yields spooked Wall Street, which was sharply lower. EUR-USD fell to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Mighty Dollar Buoyed by Higher US Treasury Yields

OVERVIEW The Greenback is trading higher, up 0.4% against the basket of major currencies. Investors are optimistic on trade relations between China and the US. Turmoil in the Middle East sends WTI 0.85% higher to trade $71.55 a barrel. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Mighty Dollar Buoyed by Higher US Treasury… Read more »

Long leading indicators: On the cusp

For the last 9 years, with periods of greater or lesser concern, I have remained resolutely positive about the economy. For the record, as of now, I still am. Source: XE news feed Long leading indicators: On the cusp

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 15, 2018

The dollar continued to rebound from the correction lows that were posted yesterday against many currencies. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) was showing a gain of 0.2%, as of the late London AM), at 92.71, earlier logging a two-session high at 92.81. EUR-USD cleared below yesterday’s low on route to posting a two-day low… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 15, 2018

The dollar has rebounded from correction lows that were seen against many currencies yesterday. EUR-USD has cleared yesterday’s and posted a two-day low at 1.1910, extending declines from yesterday’s high at 1.1996. USD-JPY has lifted toward 110.00, returning focus to recent trend highs at 110.01-03. AUD-USD has fallen to a three-session low, at 0.7503, and… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 14, 2018

The dollar lost some ground early in the session on Monday, though later perked up some, taking the DXY to 92.62 from lows of 92.25. There was no data to drive markets, and overall, FX trading conditions were quiet. EUR-USD fell from 1.1993 highs to 1.1926, while USD-JPY rallied from lows of 109.42 to 109.66… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 14, 2018

The USD index (DXY) has slipped below last week’s low on route to making an 11-day nadir at 92.31 in what is now the third straight session of declines and the most sustained down phase the dollar has seen since early April. The move has been concomitant with a softening in the outlook for an… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 14, 2018

The dollar and yen trade softer versus most other currencies in fairly quiet earl-y-week trading in Asia, ahead of the London interbank open. USD-JPY itself has posted a narrow range in early-week trading so far, holding in the low-to-mid 109.0s. EUR-USD edged out an eight-day high of 1.1974, while the likes of Cable and AUD-USD… Read more »

US Economic Week in Review: The Economy is Sound

              Periodically, it’s important to review the current status of the US economy by analyzing the leading and coincident economic indicators.  That is the purpose of today’s column, which will show that the economy is currently in good shape.                Let’s begin with two of the most important leading indicators: building permits and the 4-week… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: A Closer Look at the BOE's Interest Rate Decision

              Currently, there are two conflicting trends potentially creating a problem for BOE policy makers.  While still positive, GDP growth is slowing: Until several quarters ago, GDP’s annual growth rate was approximately 2%.   Due to weaker retail spending and construction activity, the latest reading was 1.2%.  At the same time, inflation has been running hotter: … Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: A Look As Bostic and Bullard's Recent Public Comments

               Atlanta Fed President Bostic – a voting member this year — gave a speech earlier this week which contained his latest thinking on the US economy.  Regarding the Fed’s “maximum employment” mandate, he offered the following analysis: The unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest level since December of 2000. Broader measures of joblessness,… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: interest rates continue to deteriorate edition

April data included PPI and CPI, both up modestly m/m. University of Michigan’s measure of consumer sentiment was unchanged. March wholesale sales and inventory were both up by the same percentage. The JOLTS report for March showed a spike in job openings, which are up roughly 20% YoY, but a decline in actual hires, which… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 11, 2018

The dollar lost some ground in N.Y. trade on Friday, seeing the DXY slip to 92.37 lows versus Wednesday’s 2018 high of 93.42. Softer import prices weighed on the dollar to a degree, as did comments from Fed’s Bullard early on, as he said further rate increases are not needed. The greenback recovered some after… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Singapore Date Fails to Ignite the Dollar

OVERVIEW The Greenback trading soft against the G-10 currencies. US Sanctions and tensions in the Middle East send the WTI trading at $ 71.45, the highest level since November 2014. SEK records the biggest advance on the day with less dovish Riksbank minutes. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Singapore Date Fails… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 11, 2018

The dollar has traded softer for a second day. The USD index (DXY) edged out a four-day low at 92.63, which is nearly 1% off the five-month high that was seen on Wednesday. EUR-USD remained below the rebound high posted yesterday, but lifted back above 1.1900 after dipping to an intraday low at 1.1891, suggesting… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 11, 2018

The dollar has come off the boil over the last couple of days. Softer than expected CPI out of the U.S. has taken an edge out of Fed tightening expectations, which led to the dollar losing some of its traction. EUR-USD posted the first back-to-back daily since mid April, rising to a three-day peak of… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 10, 2018

Cooler U.S. CPI figures dented the dollar in N.Y. trade on Thursday, sending the DXY to lows of 92.55 from near 93.00. EUR-USD ran up to 1.1946 highs from around 1.1880 into the data. USD-JPY bottomed at 109.32 from pre-open highs of 109.73. USD-CAD stayed heavy as oil prices remained high, while cable fell to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 10, 2018

The dollar came off the boil after logging new highs against the euro and some other currencies. Dollar supply from a 3% spike in oil prices (at the intraday highs), which was a consequence of the U.S. breaking from the Iran nuclear deal, was mooted in market narratives as driving the pullback in the greenback…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 10, 2018

USD-JPY edged out an eight-day high at 109.92 during the Tokyo session, but left the recent trend high at 110.03 unchallenged. The yen maintained a relatively soft tone amid a backdrop of stock market gains on Wall Street and in Asia. Oil prices, meanwhile, logged a new 42-month high. EUR-USD’s downtrend, now in its fourth… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 09, 2018

The dollar came off the boil on Wednesday, taking the DXY to lows of 92.84 early in the N.Y. session, down from overnight trend highs of 93.42. The greenback perked up some later in the session, seeing the dollar index recover to 93.15. Softer U.S. core PPI weighed on the USD initially, though buyers quickly… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Dips from Highs, Canadian Dollar Supported by Oil Price Rise

OVERVIEW Euro rebounds from lowest since December remain weak. British Pound stabilizes despite slump in retail sales. Japanese Yen softened as risk appetite recovers. Turkish Lira rebounds from record low versus US Dollar after central bank action. Swedish Krone gains over 1% after inflation remains close to central bank’s target. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 09, 2018

The dollar came off the boil after logging new highs against the euro and some other currencies. Dollar supply from a 3% spike in oil prices (at the intraday highs), which was a consequence of the U.S. breaking from the Iran nuclear deal, was mooted in market narratives as driving the pullback in the greenback…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 09, 2018

The dollar has traded firmer, led by a 0.5% rise in USD-JPY after the Tokyo fixing today. The USD index (DXY) is showing a 0.2% gain, posting a new four-month high at 93.34, and EUR-USD logged a fresh 2018 low at 1.1830. USD-JPY lifted above 109.50 for the first time since last Thursday after breaking… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 08, 2018

The DXY rallied to fresh 2018 highs in N.Y. on Tuesday, supported early by reports the U.S. would pull out of the Iran nuclear deal (later confirmed by president Trump). The index topped at 93.28, levels last seen on December 27. EUR-USD fell to 1.1838 trend lows, before heading back to 1.175, while GBP-USD touched… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Market Remains “Covfefe” Ahead of Trump’s Iran Announcement

OVERVIEW The Dollar Index zoomed to 2018 high as investors brace for the White House announcement. Powell connects the dots confirming that the Fed is on course for gradual hikes. Commodity currencies are under pressure. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Market Remains “Covfefe” Ahead of Trump’s Iran Announcement

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 08, 2018

The dollar picked up fresh demand and posted trend highs against the euro, the Canadian dollar and other dollar bloc currencies, among other currencies, while holding firm against most others. EUR-USD fell to a four-month low at 1.1874, building on what is now the fourth consecutive week of declines. A positive round of data out… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 08, 2018

The dollar has been trading perkily during a quiet, London-less European AM session, posting fresh intraday highs versus the euro and some other currencies, including the Australian and Canadian dollars, though has remained below the highs that were seen on Friday. EUR-USD has seen a low at 1.1921, which is just 11 pips short of… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 07, 2018

The DXY peaked at four-month highs of 92.97 early in the N.Y. session on Monday, before profit taking took the greenback a bit lower. There was no U.S. data to drive the markets on Monday, while London was out on holiday, leaving FX traders unwillling to push to hard. EUR-USD bottomed at trend lows of… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 07, 2018

The dollar has been trading perkily during a quiet, London-less European AM session, posting fresh intraday highs versus the euro and some other currencies, including the Australian and Canadian dollars, though has remained below the highs that were seen on Friday. EUR-USD has seen a low at 1.1921, which is just 11 pips short of… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 07, 2018

The dollar is at moderately firmer in early-week trading. EUR-USD has tipped back under 1.1950 after posting an intraday high at 1.1978 in Tokyo trade. swinging Friday’s four-month low back into scope. USD-JPY lifted back above 109.00, in the latest phase of a continued orbit of the 109.00 level after correcting from the 11-week high… Read more »

RBA Keeps Rates On Hold — Which Probably Where They'll Stay For Awhile

Earlier this week, the RBA maintained their current interest rate policy of 1.5%, their level since 2Q16.  There is nothing in the bank’s statement to imply a rate hike is forthcoming: growth is moderate; an unemployment rate over 5% indicates some degree of labor market slack remains while inflation shows no sign of meaningfully accelerating… Read more »

The EUs "Slowdown" is Overdone; Canada's Growth Is Very Real

            After years of disappointing economic results, the EU economy finally started to meaningfully grow at the end of 2016.  The pace increased through 2017, leading many analysts to argue the worst was finally over.  Recently, somewhat weaker economic releases have given some commentators pause regarding the strength of the EU economy.  This newly expressed… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: oil prices turn negative edition

April data started out with a positive jobs report as to both new jobs created and the un- and under-employment rates. Wage growth remained tepid but improved for nonsupervisory workers. Source: XE news feed Weekly Indicators: oil prices turn negative edition

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 04, 2018

The dollar initially fell following the softer than expected U.S. jobs report, though it appeared the market took advantage of weakness, and piled back into the greenback. The DXY topped at fresh 2018 highs of 92.89 before easing back to 92.53 as pre-weekend profit taking set in. EUR-USD made trend lows of 1.1911 from 1.1995… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Soft NFP May Send Greenback Into a Stormy Session

OVERVIEW Non-Farm Payroll increased by 164k below market expectations. Unemployment rate falls to a new 17-year low at 3.9% JPY continues to climb higher on safe-haven demand. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Soft NFP May Send Greenback Into a Stormy Session

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 04, 2018

The dollar managed a rebound from declines that were seen in the wake of Wednesday’s less-hawkish than expected Fed statement. Expectations for a strong April U.S. payrolls report today, coupled with lower levels, elicited fresh demand for the greenback. EUR-USD ebbed back into the mid 1.1900s and toward the four-month low that was seen on… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 04, 2018

The dollar has remained in a consolidation after pulling back from recent trend highs. EUR-USD has remained settled in the upper 1.1900s after posting a new four-month low at 1.1937 on Wednesday. Rebound gains above 1.2000 have so far proved fleeting. USD-JPY has settled to an orbit of the 109.00 level after correcting from the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Eurozone Inflation Cools Unexpectedly, Fed Remains Steady

OVERVIEW US Dollar remains firm after Fed signals a steady course for rate hikes. Euro remains steady despite CPI slowing.  GBP weak after service sector data. Turkish Lira falls to fresh record low.  HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Eurozone Inflation Cools Unexpectedly, Fed Remains Steady

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 03, 2018

The dollar retreated from Wednesday’s trend highs, leaving the DXY at afternoon lows of 92.51. The index topped yesterday at 92.83. Incoming U.S. data was generally USD supportive, though he return of trade concerns, and another risk off session resulted in some dollar profit taking. EUR-USD topped at 1.1990 in afternoon trade, while USD-JPY slipped… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 03, 2018

The dollar remained perky although off the trend highs posted yesterday against most of its main counterparts. The USD index (DXY) was showing a fractional 0.1% decline as of the early European PM session, at 92.44, settling off yesterday’s four-and-a-half-month peak at 92.83. EUR-USD posted a 1.2008 rebound high, but struggled to maintain gains above… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 03, 2018

The dollar has ebbed from trend highs after the Fed issued a less hawkish than expected statement following its widely anticipated decision to leave policy unchanged yesterday. EUR-USD has settled in the upper 1.1900s, up from its four-month low at 1.1937, and USD-JPY has settled near 109.60 after posting a fresh 11-week high at 110.03…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 02, 2018

The dollar had been on the rise ahead of the Fed, though abruptly turned lower following the FOMC announcement, where policy was left unchanged, as-expected. The statement noted the FOMC sees inflation close to goal, and sees further gradual rate hikes going forward. For the FX market, the statement was not overly hawkish, keeping a… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Hits New Highs for The Year Ahead of Fed Meeting

OVERVIEW US Dollar index at new 2018 highs. The Euro under pressure after GDP data confirms slower growth. GBP supported by rebound in construction activity. Swedish Krona falls after central bank comments.  HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Hits New Highs for The Year Ahead of Fed Meeting

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 02, 2018

The dollar retreated some after posting fresh highs against the yen, sterling and some other currencies. Firmer than expected UK construction PMI data gave Cable some added lift, driving the Cable above 1.3860, up on the four-month low that was seen just ahead of the London open at 1.3580. EUR-USD has settled near 1.2000 after… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 02, 2018

The dollar has remained in the ascendant, posting fresh trend highs against the yen and sterling, and remaining buoyant, near highs versus the euro and other currencies. USD-JPY edged out a fresh 11-week high at 109.92 in early Tokyo trading, gaining despite declines in EUR-JPY and other yen crosses. EUR-USD has remained heavy after posing… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 01, 2018

The DXY rallied to near highs if the year, topping at 92.55, as the dollar rallied broadly against major currencies. Incoming U.S. data disappointed, though the greenback advanced nonetheless. EUR-USD fell to 1.1982, as USD-JPY topped at 109.80. USD-CAD dipped initially on firmer Canada GDP figures, though later rallied as oil prices fell. Cable remained… Read more »

A change of seasons: May Day update

A couple of months ago I suggested that the relationship between stock prices and bond yields was likely undergoing a secular change. Source: XE news feed A change of seasons: May Day update

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 01, 2018

The dollar rallied to fresh trend highs versus the euro, yen, sterling and Australian dollar, among other currencies. This occurred in thin markets with much of Europe and key Asian centres having been closed for public holidays today. Expectations for strong U.S. jobs data on Friday have been maintaining a bid for dollars, while a… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 01, 2018

The dollar has held firm but in narrow ranges. China and Hong Kong have been closed for Labour Day holidays, and much of Europe will be out for May Day holidays today. AUD-USD eked out a fresh four-and-a-half-month low at 0.7525 after the RBA left policy no hold while highlighting low wage and low inflation,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 30, 2018

The DXY rose to trend highs of 91.92 in N.Y. on Monday, stopping just short of its 200-day moving avarage, which sits at 91.98. U.S. personal income was a touch shy of expectations, though consumption was in-line. EUR-USD bottomed at 1.2064, while USD-JPY pulled back from 109.45 highs, touching 109.09. USD-CAD bottomed at 1.2806 on… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Firm Supported by Inflation Data

OVERVIEW US Core PCE price index rises 1.9%, consumer spending increases 0.4%. GBP soft as banks revise forecasts for UK rate hikes. German inflation unexpectedly slows, supports ECB caution. Mexican economic growth accelerates 1.1% in the first three months of 2018. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Firm Supported by… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 30, 2018

The dollar majors have posted narrow ranges so far today in what has been thin holiday-affected trading conditions in Asia. The USD index (DXY) is at net unchanged levels at 91.55, below Friday’s near-four-month-high at 91.98. EUR-USD has made time in the lower 1.2100s. USD-JPY posted less than a 20 pip range, holding within 109.00… Read more »

Recent Numbers Put the BOE in a Bind

               After the Brexit vote, a number of commentators (myself included) argued that the UK economy would fall into a recession.  The reason for this conclusion is that recessions are usually caused by some type of economic shock that has broad negative ramifications for the economy at large.  The Brexit vote certainly qualified.   London had… Read more »

Recent Weakness May Give the ECB Pause to Raise Rates For Now

              EU economic news started turning more bullish at the end of 2016.  Markit Economic’s PMI surveys frist reflected the more posirive tone, which continued improving through 2017.  Industrial production growth – which stalled in 2016 – followed the PMIs higher in 2017.  A strengthening employment picture led to increased retail sales growth.  And The… Read more »

Expect the BOJ To Stay on the Sidelines For Now

           Before analyzing the Bank of Japan’s latest interest rate decision, let’s analyze the current condition of the Japanese economy by looking at it from the same perspective as the BOJ.  They often talk about “virtuous cycles,” which begins with consumer or business activity and ends with spending.                Consumer activity is employment.  Japan… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: more slight deterioration edition

March data was again all positive, including both new and existing home sales, the FHFA and Case-Shiller house price indexes, and durable goods orders. First quarter GDP rose, although at a lower rate than Q4 2017, and the most leading components of GDP were mixed. The employment cost index rose at the highest YoY rate… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 27, 2018

The DXY retreated from three-plus month highs of 91.98, pulling back to 91.58 lows on pre-weekend profit taking. The index had put together a string of eight consecutive higher daily highs before Friday’s pullback. The dollar perked up briefly following the slightly better than expected U.S. Q1 GDP outcome, though sellers quickly stepped in. EUR-USD… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 27, 2018

The dollar ramped higher, driving the USD index (DXY) to a 16-week high at 91.90 and EUR-USD to a 16-week low at 1.2064. This is the biggest weekly loss EUR-USD has seen since the week of November 13th-17th last year. Cable concurrently logged a six-week low, and AUD-USD a four-month low. USD-CHF is trading at… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 27, 2018

The dollar majors were sitting at near net unchanged levels heading into the London interbank open today. EUR-USD late yesterday traded below 1.2100 for the first time in early January, extending the latest phase of losses which were seen in the wake of the dovish-tilting guidance of ECB President Draghi yesterday, following the central bank’s… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 26, 2018

The DXY shot up to three-plus month highs of 91.61 highs in N.Y. on Thursday, as euro weakness was the major driver following an ECB press conference which was decidedly more cautious on the growth outlook than the policy statement suggested. EUR-USD fell from 1.2180 t o1.2198 lows. Incoming U.S. data was supportive of the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Euro Weakens as Mario Draghi Says ECB is Assessing Softer Data

OVERVIEW US government yield falls back below 3%. US durable goods orders rise, business spending on equipment falls.  Swedish central bank keeps rates on hold, postpones rate hike. BoC Governor says the economy is finally positive. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Euro Weakens as Mario Draghi Says ECB is Assessing Softer… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 26, 2018

The dollar was showing modest net declines on the day as of the early European PM session, giving back gains seen during the pre-London session in Asia, when the greenback posted fresh trend highs versus the euro and yen, among other currencies. The Swedish krone was a notable mover after the Riksbank pushed back the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 26, 2018

The dollar has dipped after posting fresh highs versus the euro and yen, among other currencies. EUR-USD posted an eight-week low at 1.2159 while USD-JPY rose of an eighth consecutive day, making an 11-week high at 109.46. The move reflected ongoing dollar strength, although the yen has been among the leaders of the underperforming currencies… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 25, 2018

The DXY posted three-plus month highs of 91.24 in N.Y. trade on Wednesday, largely driven by higher Treasury yields. There was no data to move the markets, though Wall Street was lower once again, despite mostly solid incoming earnings reports. EUR-USD touched trend lows of 1.2168, while USD-JPY topped at two-plus month highs of109.38. USD-CAD… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 25, 2018

The dollar remained buoyant, with the 10-year T-note yield having yesterday touched the 3.0% leve for the first time since early 2017. The narrow trade-weighted index (DXY) posted at new trend high of 91.09, a level not seen since the first week of January. EUR-USD drifted back under the 1.2200 level, although so far leaving… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 25, 2018

The dollar picked up from correction lows, remaining underpinned after concomitantly posting trend highs yesterday after the 10-year T-note finally touched the 3.0% level first time here since early 2017. The narrow trade-weighted index (DXY) recouped to near 91.0 and yesterday’s trend high at 91.07, a level last seen in the first week of January…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 24, 2018

The dollar had faded some from overnight highs at the N.Y. open on Tueday, spending much of the remainder of the session trending lower. The DXY topped at 91.07, a three-month high, during Asian hours, before touching 90.73 lows in N.Y. Wall Stree took a dive, despite generally strong earnings, with the tech sector pacing… Read more »

Housing: the Millennial tailwind buffeted by incresing interest rate and pricing headwinds

This morning’s new home sales report showed a continued positive trend in housing, but with some underlying deterioration. It remains buoyed by the demographic tailwind, but contrary interest rate and price headwinds are intensifying.    Source: XE news feed Housing: the Millennial tailwind buffeted by incresing interest rate and pricing headwinds

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 24, 2018

The dollar posted fresh highs versus most currencies before most pairings backpedalled to near net unchanged levels. EUR-USD posted a 10-week low at 1.2181 before a bout of broad dollar weakness in the London AM sessions lifted the pair above 1.2215. The low was seen after the release the April German Ifo business conditions index,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 24, 2018

The dollar posted fresh highs against the euro and yen, and many other currencies after a bout of demand in Asia, which extending a broad rally the greenback has been seeing against for over a week now. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) posted its highest level since the first week of January, at 91.07…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 23, 2018

The DXY peaked at 90.92 on N.Y. on Monday, with broad dollar strength seen on the eback of higher Treasury yields, decent incoming U.S. data, and the easing of trade and geopolitical tensions. The dollar index advanced to its best level since March 2. EUR-USD bottomed at 1.2208, a near two-month low, while USD-JPY topped… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 23, 2018

The dollar rallied during the London morning session, was showing a 0.4% gain on the euro, a 0.3% advance versus the yen and Swiss franc, and 0.4% gains versus both the Australian and New Zealand dollars, as of the late AM. The greenback has firmed versus the sterling and Canadian dollar, albeit by a relatively… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 23, 2018

The dollar has maintained a steady-to-firmer bias in early-week trading, making fresh highs versus the yen, although holding below respective Friday highs against the euro and other currencies. EUR-USD drifted moderately lower from Friday’s closing levels, making a 1.2265 low before steadying, leaving Friday’s 17-day low at 1.2229 unchallenged. USD-JPY edged out a fresh two-month… Read more »

Key Currency Pairs: the Pound/Dollar and the Canadian Dollar/Dollar

           Due to high inflationary pressures, currency traders had assumed that the Bank of England would be raising rates this year.  BOE governor Carney threw cold water on that assumption during an interview with the BBC: The governor of the Bank of England has said that an interest rate rise is “likely” this year, but… Read more »

Moderate Mixed Messages on the International Data Front

     This week, we had the standard economic “on one hand, on the other hand” situation.  The IMF released their latest World Economic Outlook which contained bullish data.  However, we’re seeing some weakness in the OECDs leading numbers along with the Nowcasts released by the Financial Times.      First, let’s look at the positive numbers… Read more »

Canada Appears Poised For Further Growth

          The Canadian economy was hit by the oil price declile in 2014 and experienced a mild recession.  But over the last two years, it was bounced back.  Now the Bank of Canada is faced with the possibility of higher growth and the accompanying inflation.  This week, the Bank of Canada maintained their current rate… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: manufacturing growth decelerates, mortgage applications accelerate addition

March data was all positive, including the Index of Leading Indicators, buoyed particularly by the interest rate spread and ISM new orders, and also included building permits and starts, retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilization.   Source: XE news feed Weekly Indicators: manufacturing growth decelerates, mortgage applications accelerate addition

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 20, 2018

The DXY posted two-week highs in N.Y. on Friday, taking its cue from firmer Treasury yields. EUR-USD fell to 1.2250 lows, down more than 100 points from overnight highs. USD-JPY topped at 107.86, a two-month top. USD-CAD printed two-week highs of 1.2749 following cooler Canada CPI and retail sales. Cable remained under pressure following BoE’s… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 20, 2018

The dollar is finishing the week on a firmer footing, posting gains versus the euro and yen, and being aided higher against the pound after BoE Governor Carney walked back hawkish guidance. EUR-USD dropped through recent range lows at 1.2299-1.2307 on route to posting an 11-day low at 1.2293. There didn’t appear to have been… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 20, 2018

The dollar has been trading firmer so far today, while weakness in the yen and sterling have remained themes. The dollar bloc currencies have also seen particular weakness, concomitantly with corrections in commodity prices and global stock markets. EUR-USD, meanwhile, has flat-lined in the mid 1.2300s, remaining comfortably off the three-week high posted on Tuesday… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 19, 2018

The dollar bounced in N.Y. trade on Thursday, taking the DXY to 89.91, a one-week high, and through its 20- and 50-day moving averages of 89.80, and 89.83, respectively. In-line jobless claims and leading indicators, along with a better Philly Fed outcome had little impact, though a late day cable sell-off following dovish Carney comments… Read more »