Category: Financial Markets

Financial markets news from external sources.

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Nov 09, 2017

The dollar was broadly lower in N.Y. on Thursday, hit by risk-off conditions which saw Wall Street tumble. Differing versions of the U.S. House and Senate tax reform bills, with the latter delaying corporate tax cuts until 2019, were behind the sell-off, leaving market expectations for a bill passage anytime soon heavily reduced. EUR-USD bottomed… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar at a Disadvantage Due to Tax-cut Sentiment

OVERVIEW US Dollar slumps ahead of Senate Republicans tax-cut bill release. Bitcoin hits an all-time high of $7888. Sterling has managed to avoid any losses due to the political turmoil unfolding. HIGHLIGHT The Euro has capitalized on a weaker Dollar and moved back above 1.1600. The Euro-zone is forecast to grow at its best rate… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Nov 09, 2017

EUR-USD has been choppy, dipping under 1.1600 before rebounding to the 1.1640 area in the late London AM session. The dip came after ECB’s Coeure said earlier that there is nothing that would justify an end to ECB monetary stimulus, while the rebound reflected a broader drop in the dollar, which seemed to correlate a… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Nov 09, 2017

The dollar has traded moderately softer, led by a 50 pip tumble in USD-JPY after news that a U.S. three-carrier strike group was conducting exercises off the Korean peninsular seemed to rattle some nerves in markets, prompting buying of the safe haven Japanese currency while pushing stocks — particularly markets in Japan and South Korea… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Nov 08, 2017

FX trade was relatively quiet in N.Y. on Wednesday, leaving the dollar just marginally firmer overall. There was no U.S. data to drive prices, and for the most part, traders were happy to remain in consolidation mode. EUR-USD topped at 1.1604, before slipping to 1.1580 lows, while USD-JPY rallied over 113.80 from 113.40 at the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Nov 08, 2017

The dollar has been trading narrow ranges so far today, holding steady after ebbing concomitantly with U.S. Treasury yields during the New York session yesterday. News that the U.S. corporate tax cut may be delayed one year before implementation had also weighed on the dollar a bit. Oil prices, in sharp focus amid the political… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Nov 08, 2017

The dollar has been trading narrow ranges so far today, holding steady in Asia after weakening concomitantly with U.S. Treasury yields during the New York session yesterday. News that the U.S. corporate tax cut may be delayed one year before implementation had also weighed on the dollar a bit. Oil prices, in sharp focus amid… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Nov 07, 2017

The dollar started the N.Y. session on a firmer footing on Tuesday, though faded as the day progressed. Stocks headed lower, which was not USD supportive, while yields edged lower as well. EUR-USD topped at 1.1590, while USD-JPY dipped to 113.83 lows. USD-CAD advanced early, though later slipped to 1.2772 lows. Cable topped at 1.3165.[EUR,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Rises on Hopes for Tax Reform

OVERVIEW GBP is down 0.4% versus US Dollar. The Euro is higher after reports from some ECB members who wanted an end date for Q.E. CAD is under pressure ahead of BOC’s governor speech. The AUD weakens as RBA signal rates on hold for time being. Oil prices have hit fresh 2-year highs on Saudi… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Nov 07, 2017

The dollar has been rally move, showing, as of the late London AM session, a gain of 0.4% versus both the euro and yen, a 0.5% gain in the respective cases against the Australian and Canadian dollars, and a relatively muted 0.2% advance versus the pound. EUR-USD logged a new three-and-a-half month low at 1.1553… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Nov 07, 2017

Dollar majors have continued to ply narrow ranges for the most part. EUR-USD side-lined in the low 1.16s. AUD-USD and USD-JPY saw a little more movement. The former lifted in the immediate wake of the RBA policy announcement and statement, with the central bank leaving interest rates unchanged (cash rate at 1.5%) while leaving guidance… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Nov 06, 2017

The dollar started the N.Y. session on a firmer footing, though later slipped broadly, on concerns over Trump’s Asian trip, Saudi Arabia’s purge, and the naming of U.S. Commerce Secretary Ross in the so-called Paradise Papers. EUR-USD bottomed at 1.1580 early on, before rallying to 1.1616 highs after the London close. USD-JPY, which had printed… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Quiet After Biggest Weekly Rise in 2017

OVERVIEW Friday’s mixed employment report and caution over US tax reforms leave the US Dollar marginally weaker. GBP is steady on hopes for progress in Brexit negotiations this week. The Euro is under pressure despite upbeat data and comments from ECB board member Praet.  The markets are off to a very quiet week with no… Read more »

Rising producer prices are flashing a caution signal

In addition to my long leading/ short leading/ coincident paradigm for forecasting expansions and recessions, I have a couple of fundamentals based alternative approaches that tell me how confident I should be. Source: XE news feed Rising producer prices are flashing a caution signal

XE Market Analysis: North America – Nov 06, 2017

EUR-USD came under moderate pressure amid a mixed bag of leads out of the Eurozone, with the final October composite PMI reading being revised higher (to 56.0 from 55.9) being offset by dovish tilting remarks by ECB member Praet, who said that a “substantial amount of monetary accommodation continues to be necessary.” The euro clocked… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Nov 06, 2017

Most dollar majors have been seeing narrow ranges. EUR-USD, for instance, has been plying a narrow range around the 1.1600 level, consolidating after dropping from levels near 1.1700 on Friday following the U.S. October jobs report, which although disappointing in the headline (at 216k), showed the jobless rate dipping and back revisions adding a further… Read more »

US Economic Week in Review: The Economy is Operating Solidly

            This week’s news pointed to a solidly expanding US economy.  Personal consumption expenditures continued growing at an impressive pace.  The ISM surveys also showed continued growth.  While the jobs report was strong, it’s best to look at the averages, which show the economy is continuing to grow at a… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: The BOJ and BOE Release Their Latest Statements

            This week, the BOJ issued their latest policy statement, which was a continuation of their low interest rate policy.  Other data indicated that Abenomics is working.  EU news continued to impress.  The BOE raised rates.  However, their policy announcement contained contradictory statements about future growth prospects. Source: XE… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: Powell Is Remarkably Mainstream

            Because he was more of a regulator than an economist, Governor Powell flew below my radar screen.  So when Trump nominated Powell to be the new head of the Federal Reserve, I had to do my homework, reading speeches he has given over the last year or to become… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: corporate bonds break out positively edition

October data started out almost entirely positive, with very strong ISM manufacturing and services readings, a strong rebound in vehicle sales for the second month in a row, strongly positive consumer confidence, an underemployment rate equal to the lowest since 2000, and an unemployment rate lower than any since then. Jobs also rebounded, and September’s… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Sinks on Slow Employment Growth

OVERVIEW The Sterling has managed to claw back some of yesterday’s losses. US Dollar hits one week low after a weaker jobs report was released. The Loonie is stronger today after the strengthened employment numbers were released.  HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Sinks on Slow Employment Growth

XE Market Analysis: North America – Nov 03, 2017

The dollar majors have hunkered down into the release of the U.S. October payrolls, which is up later today and will fine-tune Fed policy expectations for the period ahead, including the December FOMC where there Fed is widely expected to resume its gradualist tightening policy with a 25bp hike in the funds rate. USD-JPY has… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Nov 03, 2017

The dollar majors have hunkered down into the release of the U.S. October payrolls, which is up later today and will fine-tune Fed policy expectations for the period ahead, including the December FOMC where there Fed is widely expected to resume its gradualist tightening policy with a 25bp hike in the funds rate. USD-JPY has… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Sterling Slides Despite Historic Rate Increase

OVERVIEW GBP markets disappointed by the outlook for interest rates. USD is slightly weaker as Republicans unveil tax bill, FOMC remains unchanged. The Euro is lifted by strong manufacturing data. AUD rallies after unexpectedly strong trade and buildings approval data. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Sterling Slides Despite Historic Rate Increase

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Nov 02, 2017

FX trade started the Thursday session with an as-expected BoE rate hike, which was followed with a sell-the-fact response from the sterling market. Cable retreated to near one-month lows of 1.3058 into the London close from 1.3225. Elsewhere, details of the U.S. tax reform bill were released, which initially did not go over well. Stocks… Read more »

An economy firing on all cylinders

When it comes to the economy both in the present and over the next 3 to 6 months, there’s nary a cloud in the sky. I won’t bother with a graph, but the stock market (which doesn’t measure the well-being of the average American, but is a legitimate leading indicator over the next 3 to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Nov 02, 2017

The dollar has been trading generally softer so far today, although was settled at near net unchanged levels against the yen heading into the New York interbank open and up versus the pound. Reports that Fed Governor Powell will be nominated to the Fed Chairmanship position later today imparted a downside spin on the greenback,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Nov 02, 2017

The dollar has traded softer following reports run by MarketWatch and Bloomberg saying that Fed Governor Powell will be nominated to the Fed Chairmanship position later on Thursday. Powell is seen as one of the more dovish candidates for the top job at the Fed, similar to Yellen. Yesterday’s conclusion of the FOMC, meanwhile, predictably… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Nov 01, 2017

The dollar was range bound ahead of the FOMC announcement, though a decent ADP jobs report kept a floor under the unit. The greenback rose a bit, then fell, then rose again following the Fed announcement, where policy was left unchanged, as expected, and the statement was unremarkable. EUR-USD dipped to 1.1619 from near 1.1630,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Nov 01, 2017

EUR-USD has continued to gravitate around the 1.1630-40 area. The pair remains some 50 pips up on the lows seen in early trade yesterday, with some of the Catalonian risk discount having since unwound some. EUR-GBP has traded into one-month low territory, driven by pound outperformance ahead of the BoE’s expected rate hike this week,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Nov 01, 2017

The dollar has been trading mixed so far today, losing ground to an outperforming pound, holding net steady versus the euro while gaining on the yen. The pound traded firmer for a third consecutive day, logging a near-two-week high versus the dollar, at 1.1.3292 and a one-month high against the euro. Sterling markets are anticipating… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Oct 31, 2017

FX trade was relatively quiet in N.Y. on Tuesday, with the dollar putting in a mixed performance. Incoming U.S. data was somewhat supportive of the greenback, as both Chicago PMI and consumer confidence were better than expected. The doolar lost some ground to the euro and pound, though posted gains versus the yen and CAD…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: The Pound Continues to March Towards Thursday

OVERVIEW The Canadian Dollar has slipped today after GDP growth is reported at -0.1%. Sterling spiked higher on positive Brexit negotiation tone from Europeans. Dollar stable despite political turmoil around Trump ex-staff member.  HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: The Pound Continues to March Towards Thursday

XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 31, 2017

The dollar has traded mixed so far today, losing moderate ground to the euro and sterling, among other currencies, while lifting out of a two-day low in the case against the yen. In the U.S., political intrigue along with the announcement, promised to be made tomorrow, of the new Fed chair, will remain focal points… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 31, 2017

The euro rally of yesterday has run out of puff, with EUR-USD settling around 1.1630-40, below the 1.1657 high, while EUR-JPY has remained heavy, near yesterday’s 131.45 low. The yen, meanwhile, remains underpinned despite dovish guidance from the BoJ. USD-JPY logged a 12-day low at 112.95, and AUD-JPY has remained near the seven-month lows seen… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Oct 30, 2017

Stocks, yields and the dollar were all lower in N.Y. on Monday, with upcoming events and data keeping the markets nervous overall. The FOMC meeting kicks off on Tuesday, while an announcement on who the next Fed chief will be could come anytime this week. ADP jobs figures, and the October jobs report come later… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: British Pound on The Rise Ahead of BoE Meeting

OVERVIEW USD is weaker as Trump’s former campaign manager was indicted. The EUR is stable at lower levels, as the EZ economic sentiment improves. CAD is soft as the market awaits GDP and jobs data. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: British Pound on The Rise Ahead of BoE Meeting

XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 30, 2017

The dollar lost ground to the euro, sterling and yen, among other currencies, although held better versus the still-underperforming NZ dollar and the Australian buck. The euro outperformed as Spanish yields dropped as markets price out secession risk. EUR-USD lifted nearly 50 pips to the 1.1640 area, and EUR-JPY and most other euro crosses also… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 30, 2017

Narrow ranges prevailed for the most part in early week trading in currency markets. The biggest mover was, once again, the New Zealand dollar, which fell by over 0.5% as markets continue to adjust to the expected policy package of the new coalition government. A risk-off theme gave the yen an underpinning, amid concerns about… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: Two Banks Issue New Policy

            This week’s news was positive.  The Bank of Canada maintained their current 1% interest rate policy.  More importantly, the underlying data for the country is very strong. The ECB halved their bond buying program while maintaining rates at their current level.  Other news from the EU supported the ECB’s… Read more »

US Economic Week in Review: A Week of Good News

            This week’s news was positive.  The BEA released their first estimate of 3Q GDP — a healthy 3% annual rate.  The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index increased and durable goods orders were up.  New home sales also increased.  While a large, post-Harvey surge in the South was mostly responsible, there were also increases… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: mortgage rates turn negative again edition

In the rear view mirror, the preliminary GDP report for Q3 came in at a strong +3.0%. As I pointed out yesterday, however, both long leading indicators in the report — real private residential fixed spending and inflation adjusted proprietors’ income — were negative.   Source: XE news feed Weekly Indicators: mortgage rates turn… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Oct 27, 2017

The dollar was mostly higher in N.Y. trade on Friday, supported by a better than expected 3.0% Q3 U.S. GDP print. The dollar’s move up was led by EUR-USD losses and USD-CAD gains. USD-JPY though, again gave back the 114 handle, after printing three-month highs post-data. EUR-USD fell to three-month lows of 1.1575, as Madrid/Catalan… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 27, 2017

The dollar index rallied to three-month highs in European trade, topping at 94.92, as the U.S. House passed budget legislation that opens the door to a tax reform package in the coming weeks. Global equities rallied overnight, with U.S. futures indicating a higher Wall Street open. Solid earnings from the likes of Amazon, Google, and… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 27, 2017

The euro has remained heavy in the wake of the ECB’s dovish guidance yesterday. EUR-USD clocked a fresh three-month low at 1.1624 during pre-Europe trading in Asia, bringing the cumulative decline since the central bank’s announcement to 1.6%. EUR-JPY posted an eight-day low at 132.59. Market attention today will turn to the political front in… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Oct 26, 2017

The dollar got a boost from the ECB, which laid out plans to extend its QE program through the first nine-months of 2018, albeit at lowered purchasing levels. EUR-USD fell to 1.1665 lows, a two-plus month base, from 1.1815 ahead of the policy announcement. USD-JPY topped at 114.03, though was again pushed back from the… Read more »

September new home sales: the tail end of the hurricanes

Last month I started my note on August new home sales by saying:  “Yesterday’s new home sales report, on a nationwide basis anyway, can be thrown into the trash basket.” This was due to the failure of about 30% of counties in Florida and Texas constituting 14% of the entire national market being unable to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 26, 2017

The euro has been trading buoyantly into the ECB announcement today. EUR-USD clocked a one-week high of 1.1837 earlier in the Asian session, and while EUR-JPY and EUR-CHF have remained below their respective 22- and 33-month highs of yesterday, they remain underpinned, with both crosses having picked up from shallow dips. USD-JPY ground lower to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 26, 2017

The euro has been trading buoyantly into the ECB announcement today. EUR-USD clocked a one-week high of 1.1837 earlier in the Asian session, and while EUR-JPY and EUR-CHF have remained below their respective 22- and 33-month highs of yesterday, they remain underpinned, with both crosses having picked up from shallow dips. With both the September… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: British Pound Jumps as Economy Improves

OVERVIEW USD is slightly softer despite strong goods orders and new home sales.  GBP is outperforming on November rate hike bets. CAD hits a 3-month low after cautious Bank of Canada statement. The AUD slides after inflation disappointment. EUR is steady with German business confidence at a record high. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 25, 2017

The dollar lost ground to the euro, and more especially the pound, which rallied strongly on unexpected strength in UK prelim Q3 GDP data, while gaining ground against the yen and Australian dollar, the latter of which took a hit following a miss in Australian CPI data.[EUR, USD] Source: XE news feed XE Market… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 25, 2017

The Aussie dollar came under pressure following sub-forecast inflation data out of Australian, which pushed back on any nascent ideas that the RBA may have been headed for a rate hike. AUD-USD lost 0.7% in making a 0.7716 low, which is the lowest level seen since mid July. Australian Q3 CPI slowed to a 1.8%… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Oct 24, 2017

The dollar edged higher in N.Y. trade on Tuesday, though ranges overall were relatively narrow. There was no data to move markets, though risk-on conditions helped support the greenback. EUR-USD was fairly steady through the session, with no one making waves ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting. USD-JPY tested the 114.00 mark, though ultimately failed again…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: New Zealand Dollar Slumps To 5-Month Low

OVERVIEW USD steady as markets focus on Fed and ECB policy decisions. GBP under pressure as Barnier warns no “bespoke” Brexit. EUR marginally higher, EZ data misses’ expectations. US stock markets hit fresh record highs.  HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: New Zealand Dollar Slumps To 5-Month Low

XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 24, 2017

EUR-USD has settled around 1.1750-70 after logging a two-week low at 1.1724 late yesterday. Market participant will remain vigilant on developments in Spain, with Catalonian leaders threatening to unleash mass civil disobedience over the independence issue. USD-JPY has scaled to fresh intraday highs, making 113.75, with the pair recouping most of the decline seen yesterday,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 24, 2017

The dollar majors have posted relatively narrow ranges so far today. EUR-USD has settled around 1.1750 after logging a two-week low at 1.1724 late yesterday. Market participant will remain vigilant on developments in Spain, with Catalonian leaders threatening to unleash mass civil disobedience over the independence issue. A plenary meeting on Thursday’s in Catalan’s regional… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Oct 23, 2017

The dollar was modestly higher in N.Y. trade on Monday, though the DXY managed better than two-week highs of 94.01. There was no data to drive markets, and the risk backdrop had little impact on the FX market, with both yields and stocks range bound. EUR-USD topped at 1.1763 into the London close, then later… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Pound Slumps as UK Monetary Policy in Spotlight

OVERVIEW Sterling on the backfoot as markets prepare for UK GDP ahead of the interest rate announcement next week. Kiwi Dollar reaches a five-month low on labor government concerns.  Donald Trump says he will decide on the next FED chair “very shortly”. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Pound Slumps as UK… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 23, 2017

The dollar has traded mixed in early-week trading so far, gaining on the euro and yen, but losing ground to sterling, the Canadian dollar and other dollar bloc currencies. The yen weakened in the wake of Japan’s election, which returned Abe as prime minister with a resounding mandate for a continuation of ‘Abenomic’ policies, which… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: Continued Expansionary News

            This week’s news was mostly positive, but there were a few areas of weakness.  The EU is beginning its second straight year of growth while Australia continues its nearly 20-year run of economic expansion.  For the UK, however, concerns are mounting that Brexit will not end well.  While Japan’s… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: Fed President Williams Is a Bit Too Mechanical

      There are several ways to classify Federal Reserve governors.  The most common is obviously hawks and doves, with the former arguing for rate increases to pre-emptively slow inflationary pressures while the latter are willing to let the economy run a bit hotter, allowing inflation to increase.  But other classifications are possible.  Over… Read more »

US Economic Week in Review: Good Numbers Continue

            This week’s news continued to show the US economy is expanding at a consistently modest pace.  The latest Beige Book describes broadly positive economic news.  Industrial production – a key coincident indicator – expanded, although this should be seen in the broader context of a fairly weak numbers for this… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: the long term/short term divergence continues

September data included a negative reading of the leading economic indicators. If you take out the heightened initial jobless claims number due to the hurricanes, they were flat. Housing permits declined, but starts rose slightly. Existing home sales also rose slightly. All of these housing numbers are below the expansion peaks they set at the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Stronger on Tax Reform Progress

OVERVIEW South African Rand slumps on rumors over sacking the deputy president. Kiwi Dollar continues to weaken after the formation of a coalition government earlier in the week. Sterling is weak as doubts arise over future interest rate hikes. US Dollar is higher as progress is made on tax reform.  HIGHLIGHT The US Dollar is… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 20, 2017

The dollar has rallied across the board, up 0.4% versus the euro and by 0.7% against the yen, following news that the U.S. Senate had passed a budget blueprint that will help push forward the Republican party’s planned $1.5 tln tax cut. The news came after the close of Wall Street, and sparked a rally… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 20, 2017

The dollar has rallied across the board, up 0.3% versus the euro and by 0.6% against the yen, following news that the U.S. Senate had passed a budget blueprint that will help push forward the Republican party’s planned $1.5 tln tax cut. The news came after the close of Wall Street, and sparked a rally… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Oct 19, 2017

The dollar faded in early N.Y. trade on Thursday, despite slower than expected jobless claims and a better than forecast Philly Fed index. Risk-off conditions prevailed, which soured USD sentiment to a degree. Trading ranges overall were relatively narrow however. EUR-USD based at 1.1828 early on, before topping at 1.1858 in late morning trade. USD-JPY… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 19, 2017

The dollar came under pressure against most currencies. EUR-USD rallied to a three-day high of 1.1836 and USD-JPY turned sharply lower in London trading after logging a two-week high at 113.14, dropping under 112.50. The drop in USD-JPY reflected in part a bout of demand for the yen as European stock markets turned south, despite… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 19, 2017

The yen continued to underperform, coming amid fresh highs on Wall Street. USD-JPY clocked a two-week high at 113.14, while EUR-JPY, AUD-JPY, and other yen crosses, also scaled to new highs. Strong trade data out of Japan had little impact on the yen. Outside the case for USD-JPY, and NZD-USD, which dove by over 1%… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Oct 18, 2017

The dollar weakened in N.Y. trade on Wednesday, leaving the DXY at 93.41 lows, and down from one-week highs if 93.80. Weaker U.S. housing starts data dented USD sentiment early on, and from there, the greenback drifted mostly lower. EUR-USD topped at 1.1794, up from 1.1745 opening lows. USD-JPY topped at 113.05 though quickly gave… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 18, 2017

The dollar continued to firm. USD-JPY rallied for a third successive session, making a nine-day at 112.76, and EUR-USD declined for a fourth consecutive session, logging a nine-day low at 1.1730. While losing ground the dollar, the euro managed gains versus the yen, sterling and other currencies. Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis:… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 18, 2017

The dollar traded with a firming bias, gaining versus New York closing levels against most currencies, but still remaining shy of respective highs that were logged yesterday. Clouding the picture presently is the looming decision by the Trump administration on who will have the Fed chair, whether it will be the reappointment of dovish Yellen… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Oct 17, 2017

The dollar started the N.Y. session on a firmer footing, aided by higher than expected import and export prices. From there however, the greenback turned lower, leaving the DXY under 93.50 from one-week highs of 93.73. EUR-USD bottomed at 1.1737 before making its way to 1.1774 highs, as range trade mentality persists. USD-JPY managed to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Gaining on Latest Fed Chair Speculation

OVERVIEW USD gaining across the board on reports that Trump is leaning towards a hawkish Fed Chair candidate. GBP under pressure as two new members of BoE are not ready to back a rate hike yet despite inflation remaining at 5-year high. EUR soft despite rise in German investor morale, inflation still below ECB’s target…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 17, 2017

EUR-USD declined for a fourth consecutive session, this time logging a out a one-week low at 1.1754, while the common currency has remained heavy after posting lows versus the yen and other currencies yesterday. The prevailing disharmony in Spanish politics is weighing on the euro, particularly news that a Spanish judge has jailed without bail… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 17, 2017

The dollar has continued to trade perkily. USD-JPY flipped back above 112.00 as major Asian stock indices hit 10-year highs after Wall Street hit fresh record highs on Monday. The pair has a well-established tendency to correlate with notable moves in global equity markets, though persisting concerns about political disharmony in Spain and North Korea… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Canadian Dollar and British Pound Under Pressure

OVERVIEW USD rises to intraday highs following a strong manufacturing survey and weekend comments from Yellen. CAD is under pressure as the 2-year Canadian government bond yield slipped below that of its US counterpart. GBP fell around 0.5 cent on reports of possible breakdown in Brexit negotiations. EUR recovering from its session lows after Austria… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Oct 16, 2017

The FX market was relatively quiet in N.Y. trade on Monday, with major dollar pairings largely sticking to narrow trading ranges. The greenback moved to session highs following a joint press conference between Trump and Senate leader McConnell, where the two appeared to be on the same page with regards to tax reform. This helped… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 16, 2017

The dollar traded mixed, posting gains versus a generally softer euro, and against the Canadian and other dollar bloc currencies, but traded slightly lower versus the yen and sterling. The euro came under broader pressure, although managed to lift out of its lows. EUR-USD posted a four-session low at 1.1780, and EUR-JPY logged a one-month… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 16, 2017

The dollar traded mostly firmer today, which follows losses on Friday in the wake of the sub-forecast U.S. data and, before that, about a week long period of declines. EUR-USD logged a four-session low at 1.1790, driven in part by dollar firmness and in part by euro weakness, as the common currency eked lower versus… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: A Very Light Week of News

            This week, the IMF published its updated World Economic Outlook, which noted that global growth accelerated in the 1H17.  While the US’ 1Q GDP number was disappointing, growth rebounded in the second.  Europe and Japan saw an increase in consumer spending, investment and exports.  The report also observed two… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: Reality is Not Complying With the Fed's Models

            The Phillips Curve is a single-equation empirical model, named after William Phillips, describing a historical inverse relationship between rates of unemployment and corresponding rates of inflation that result within an economy. Stated simply, decreased unemployment, (i.e., increased levels of employment) in an economy will correlate with higher rates of… Read more »

Weather change sees young cattle prices rise on AuctionsPlus

Most young cattle prices rose on AuctionsPlus this week – in the case of steers, quite sharply – as the effects of earlier rain and the prospect of more to come set in across eastern states.   The post Weather change sees young cattle prices rise on AuctionsPlus appeared first on Beef Central. Source:… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Oct 13, 2017

The dollar headed lower after a minor U.S. CPI miss, indicating markets are focused on the Fed, and its concerns over low inflation. EUR-USD spiked up to 1.1874 highs from under 1.1810, as USD-JPY slid to 111.69 from over 112.25. The dollar subsequently mounted a modest pre-weekend rally, though ended the session down across the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 13, 2017

EUR-USD lifted to the 1.1850 area on a Bloomberg report that the ECB is considering halving asset purchases next year, although with a longer than hitherto expected nine-month extension to the program, which has had an offsetting influence on forex markets. Attention today will be on U.S. CPI data, as benign data would fit concerns… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 13, 2017

The dollar has retained a soft tone, settling in the lower 112s versus the yen, near the week’s low at 111.99 (which was seen on Tuesday), edging near nine-day lows versus sterling and logging a new nine-day low in the case against the Australian dollar, and drifting back some against the euro. EUR-USD lifted to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Oct 12, 2017

The dollar perked up in morning trade in N.Y. on Thursday, aided by a warmer U.S. PPI outcome. As the session progressed however, the greenback fell back, leaving the DXY at 92.97 lows after opening at 93.05, and peaking at 93.22. EUR-USD based at 1.1829 after the data, before making its way to 1.1850 highs… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 12, 2017

The dollar posted fresh lows versus the euro and a good many other currencies before settling and coming off those lows. The narrow trade-weighted USD index has seen a low of 92.64, which is the lowest level seen since September 26. Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 12, 2017

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 12, 2017

The dollar has continued to track lower, this time following the release of the minutes to the September FOMC meeting. While overall maintaining expectations for a 25 bp hike in the funds rate, the minutes weakened the conviction for this a tad, with some policymakers expressing concern that low inflation was not “transitory.” The narrow… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Oct 11, 2017

FX trade was relatively quiet through the N.Y. Wednesday morning session, with no data to drive markets, and a lack of interest to push levels ahead of the FOMC minutes release. The dollar was mixed overall however, seeing EUR-USD top at over two-week highs of 1.1858. USD-JPY meanwhile, held the 112 handle, topping near 112.50… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 11, 2017

The dollar is mostly lower, as U.S. stock futures register caution ahead of the FOMC minutes. EUR-USD fell back from highs in the mid 1.18s but at 1.1817 remains clearly above recent lows, after the Catalonian president appeared to back down from declaring independence from Spain, instead “suspending” the result of the separatist vote to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 11, 2017

The euro has seen a relief bid after the Catalan leader refrained from calling a unilateral spit from Spain, and chose instead to proceed with dialogue. EUR-USD and EUR-CHF climbed to respective two-week highs of 1.1834 and 1.1534, and EUR-JPY to a 10-day high just shy of 133.00. Elsewhere, USD-JPY clocked a two-week low at… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Oct 10, 2017

The dollar was mostly lower in N.Y. trade on Tuesday, as risk-off conditions weighed. EUR-USD topped 1.1825 after the Catalonian president appeared to back down from declaring independence from Spain, instead “suspending” the result of the separatist vote to give time for dialogue with Madrid. USD-JPY slipped briefly under 112.00 on the nervous geopolitical backdrop,… Read more »

Watching money supply

A few weeks back I noted that there was something of a divergence between financial and non-financial long leading indicators. All of the financial indicators were still positive — some extremely positive — while the non-financial indicators (corporate profits, housing, the personal savings rate) were mixed or negative. Source: XE news feed Watching money… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 10, 2017

The dollar posted fresh lows against a number of currencies, before coming off those lows. EUR-USD logged a nine-day high against the dollar at 1.1807. EUR-JPY and other euro crosses also posted higher, before the common currency backed off on news that Catalonia’s leader Puigdemont will be holding a press conference at 13:00 CET. … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 10, 2017

The dollar has continued to trade softer. EUR-USD climbed to a nine-day high of 1.1789, while the greenback touched fresh lows versus sterling, the Australian and Canadian dollars, and other currencies. USD-JPY continued to do its own way, briefly run higher to 112.82 before ebbing back to near net unchanged levels around 112.60-65. Tokyo markets… Read more »