Category: Financial Markets

Financial markets news from external sources.

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 11, 2017

The euro has seen a relief bid after the Catalan leader refrained from calling a unilateral spit from Spain, and chose instead to proceed with dialogue. EUR-USD and EUR-CHF climbed to respective two-week highs of 1.1834 and 1.1534, and EUR-JPY to a 10-day high just shy of 133.00. Elsewhere, USD-JPY clocked a two-week low at… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Oct 10, 2017

The dollar was mostly lower in N.Y. trade on Tuesday, as risk-off conditions weighed. EUR-USD topped 1.1825 after the Catalonian president appeared to back down from declaring independence from Spain, instead “suspending” the result of the separatist vote to give time for dialogue with Madrid. USD-JPY slipped briefly under 112.00 on the nervous geopolitical backdrop,… Read more »

Watching money supply

A few weeks back I noted that there was something of a divergence between financial and non-financial long leading indicators. All of the financial indicators were still positive — some extremely positive — while the non-financial indicators (corporate profits, housing, the personal savings rate) were mixed or negative. Source: XE news feed Watching money… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 10, 2017

The dollar posted fresh lows against a number of currencies, before coming off those lows. EUR-USD logged a nine-day high against the dollar at 1.1807. EUR-JPY and other euro crosses also posted higher, before the common currency backed off on news that Catalonia’s leader Puigdemont will be holding a press conference at 13:00 CET. … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 10, 2017

The dollar has continued to trade softer. EUR-USD climbed to a nine-day high of 1.1789, while the greenback touched fresh lows versus sterling, the Australian and Canadian dollars, and other currencies. USD-JPY continued to do its own way, briefly run higher to 112.82 before ebbing back to near net unchanged levels around 112.60-65. Tokyo markets… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 09, 2017

The narrow trade-weighted USD index logged a new low, at 93.50, with the greenback coming under steady pressure today. The index logged a 10-week high at 94.10 just after the U.S. jobs release on Friday, as the unexpectedly negative employment print was offset by strenght in component parts of the report, which maintained expectations for… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 09, 2017

The dollar has opened the week on a soft footing, with the greenback posting lows in a holiday-thinned market below respective Friday lows against the yen, euro, sterling and a good number of other currencies. This follows the unexpected contraction in U.S. employment, revealed by Friday’s September jobs report, and also comes amid a backdrop… Read more »

US Economic Week in Review: Hurricane Skewed Results Continue

            Recent hurricanes continue to impact data.  Auto sales increased strongly, initial claims remain high and the employment report printed a hurricane caused contraction.  It will take a few months for the impact to shake out.  In other news, both ISM readings were strong and durable goods increased.  Overall, the data continue to indicate the… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: Bullard Gets it Right

            Bullard is one of the Fed’s most original thinkers.  He recently proposed a new interest rate regime that, instead of focusing on models, uses a very intuitive decision tree to determine if raising rates is appropriate.  He gave a speech at the end of last week that asked three… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: Global Growth Continues

            This week, the only central bank to make a policy decision was the RBA, which maintained rates at 1.5%.  In other news, the EU continues expanding at a solid pace, but the sentiment readings from the UK are weakening thanks to Brexit concerns.  Japan continues to outperform.                      The… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: credit spread makes 10 year low edition

September data was hedlined by a mixed employment report, with a loss of jobs in the establishment survey, but a huge gain in jobs, decline in the unemployment and underemployment rates, and a big increase in the employment to population ratio and labor force participation rates from the household survey.   Source: XE news… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Oct 06, 2017

The dollar popped higher following the negative NFP print of the September jobs report, though hurricane disruptions were widely anticipated to impact. Upbeat details, such as a surge in hourly earnings, a bump up in the participation rate, and a drop in the unemployment rate to a trend low 4.2% came to the greenback’s aid…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Employment Falls but Wages Rise Faster

OVERVIEW USD rises to two-month high as wage growth unexpectedly jumps. CAD also supported by faster wage growth and employment growth. GBP weak as former Conservative party chair goes public with a plan to oust PM May. AUD weakens as RBA member unexpectedly talks about rate cuts and weak retail sales. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 06, 2017

The dollar posted new highs before pulling back some as the release of the U.S. jobs report for September looms. USD-JPY logged a three-session high at 113.07 before settling to around 112.85-90, and EUR-USD printed an eight-week low 1.1686. USD-CAD logged five-week highs, while Cable plumbed a one-month low. AUD-USD clocked a three-month low, at… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 06, 2017

The dollar has been bid up again, after dipping mid week, gaining concomitantly with Treasury yields following a set of strong data out of the U.S. yesterday, along with relatively hawkish Fedspeack and with all three of the main U.S. equity indices setting record closing highs for a fourth straight session. USD-JPY edged out a… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Domestic Politics Keep Pressure on British Pound

OVERVIEW USD gains after strong factory orders and Fed comments. CAD weakens after disappointing trade data. AUD stumbles after very weak retail sales. EUR weakens after slightly dovish ECB minutes. Oil prices recover as Saudi’s committed to oil production cuts. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Domestic Politics Keep Pressure on British… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Oct 05, 2017

The dollar once again reacted positively to improving U.S. data, this time on a narrowed trade deficit, and improved factory orders. Wall Street rallied to new record highs, as Treasury yields moved up as well. Markets will likely slow ahead of Friday’s U.S. jobs report. EUR-USD bottomed at 1.1703 after opening near 1.1745, while USD-JPY… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 05, 2017

The dollar was steady versus the yen and euro, but gained versus the pound and Australian dollar, the former amid a new wave of political and Brexit uncertainty following a widely panned speech by British PM May yesterday, and the latter following the biggest contraction in Australian retail sales in over four years. Cable posted… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 05, 2017

The Aussie came under pressure following the biggest contraction in Australian retailing sales in four years. The currency is showing a 0.5% decline on the day as the London interbank enters the fray, with AUD-USD logging a two-day low at 0.7819. The August report for Australian retail trade saw turnover unexpectedly contracting by 0.6% m/m,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Dollar Struggles Despite Booming PMI Surveys

OVERVIEW USD under pressure on rumors that Trump is considering a more dovish Fed Chair candidate. S&P says Bank of England is talking up Sterling to fight inflation. GBP lifted by stronger than expected PMI services. ECB tells banks to set aside more cash on bad loans. India’s central bank keeps rates on hold at… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Oct 04, 2017

The dollar firmed up some in N.Y. on Wednesday, with strong U.S. data again the main driver of gains. Wall Street advanced further, as yields headed higher as well. EUR-USD topped at 1.1787 early on, before pulling back to 1.1747 lows. USD-JPY meanwhile, peaked at 1.1294, though the 113 handle remains a tough nut. USD-CAD… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 04, 2017

EUR-USD logged a two-session high at 1.1781, rebounding from yesterday’s two-and-a-half-month low at 1.1696. The gain reflects a broader retreat in the dollar, while the deepening constitutional crisis in Spain remains a concern for the euro. The pound traded mixed, with gains seen following an above-forecast services PMI out of the UK failing to sustain…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 04, 2017

The dollar remained on the ebb, giving back some of the gains posted recently. The narrow trade-weighted USD index is showing a modest 0.2% loss as the London interbank opens, at 93.23, having extended the decline from yesterday’s six-week peak at 93.77. USD-JPY ebbed under 112.50 after recent gains stalled above 113.00, where decent export… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Oct 03, 2017

The dollar pulled back modestly in N.Y. trade on Tuesday, taking the DXY from six-week highs of 93.91 to a low of 93.43. After opening at session lows of 1.1728, EUR-USD advanced to 1.1773 highs, with stabilizing Spanish stocks supporting.. USD-JPY again gave back the 113 handle, bottoming at 112.70 on reported exporter selling. USD-CAD… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Firms as Data Supports Rate Hike Expectations

OVERVIEW USD at 1 in a half month high as very strong manufacturing data bolsters rate outlook. AUD weakens after RBA leave policy on hold, mention currency’s strength. GBP under pressure from weaker survey data for September. Equity markets continue their record run, posting fresh record highs. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 03, 2017

The euro recovered a good chunk of the ground it lost yesterday. EUR-USD lifted to 1.1750 from lows just under 1.1700, EUR-CHF trading back above 1.1450, and EUR-JPY, among other euro crosses, also gained. The rise was concomitant with a stabilisation on the Spanish stock market as investors move on from the ugly scenes from… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 03, 2017

The dollar has continued to find demand, posting gains versus the euro, yen, sterling and Australian dollar, among other currencies. The narrow trade-weighted USD index clocked a one-and-a-half-month peak at 93.77, while EUR-USD traded below 1.1700 for the first time since mid August. USD-JPY remained buoyant, albeit with upside momentum being crimped in the face… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Oct 02, 2017

Improved U.S. data supported the dollar in N.Y. trade on Monday, as the manufacturing ISM came in much stronger than expected, and construction spending rose more than forecast. EUR-USD bottomed at 1.1737 after peaking at 1.1763 early in the session. USD-JPY was unable to breach the 113 mark, topping at 112.994, and later finding support… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 02, 2017

The dollar has rallied in early-week trading, particularly against the euro, which has taken a hit on the eruption of the Catalonian independence movement onto the world stage — the first time this long-running issue has had such far-reaching impact. This follows the Spanish government’s heavy handed attempt to supress Catalonia’s self-automated vote for independence… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 02, 2017

The dollar has been bid in early week trading amid a relatively thin session in Asia, where China, Hong Kong and a number of other nations have been enjoying public holidays. The eruption of the Catalonian independence movement onto the world stage, meanwhile, has soured sentiment for the euro — the first time this long-running… Read more »

US Equity and Economic Week in Review: The Tax Cut Proposal Is a Potential Short-Term Game Changer

            This week’s big news was the administration’s tax cut proposals, which would lower the top individual rate, cut the corporate tax rate to 20% and eliminate the estate tax.  The markets interpreted this development positively bidding up equities and selling treasuries.  Standard economic theory states lower taxes are inherently… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: Another Week of Goods News

            Global economic news continues to be largely positive.  The Japanese economy is growing although weak inflation is still a problem.  News from the EU points to a continent poised for additional growth while the UK has yet to experience the much-predicted post-Brexit recession.  While Canada’s month GDP figure was… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Sep 29, 2017

The dollar was driven by U.S. data in N.Y. on Friday, initially falling on cooler income and consumption figures, then rallying on a much stronger Chicago PMI outcome. EUR-USD peaked at .1.1832, before falling back to 1.1792 lows, then steadying near 1.1800. USD-JPY touched 112.22 lows, and a peak of 112.73. USD-CAD rallied to highs… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Weak U.S. Inflation Clouds Fed Outlook

OVERVIEW Mixed bag from the US sees the Dollar claw back lost ground. The Pound has slipped back from recent highs as YoY growth slows to 1.5%. Canadian economy grinds to a halt in July, with 0% growth reported. The Euro is firm despite unchanged CPI for September. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Sep 29, 2017

There was limited directional impulse for most dollar pairings, with this being the last trading say of both the month- and quarter-end, while the weekend brings the usual risk for another North Korean antic. Cable was the main exception, as it dove following sub-forecast GDP and house price data, along with some negative Brexit related… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Sep 29, 2017

USD-JPY picked up some demand while most other dollar pairings have traded narrow ranges so far today. USD-JPY recovered from yesterday’s 112.25 low to the upper 112s. There had been reports yesterday of yen demand into the end of the first half of the fiscal year in Japan, though USD-JPY still has rallied, returning focus… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Sep 28, 2017

The dollar was mostly lower in N.Y. trade on Thursday, with month and quarter end conditions keeping ranges relatively narrow. Incoming U.S. data had little impact on the FX market, though revised GDP improved, jobless claims were lower than expected, and the advance trade deficit narrowed some. EUR-USD ranged between 1.1767 lows early, to a… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Dollar Slips Despite Q2 Growth Revision

OVERVIEW GBP supported by a slightly upbeat tone from the latest round of Brexit talks. BoE Governor, Mark Carney, warns it is unable to cancel out a likely negative economic hit from Brexit.   EUR recovers from 1-month lows, ECB members signal Q.E. reduction rather than an end. Reserve Bank of New Zealand keeps rates on hold… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Sep 28, 2017

The dollar corrected after rallying yesterday and through to the early European morning against some currencies. EUR-USD lifted above 1.1783 after yesterday logging a low at 1.1717. USD-JPY fell back to the mid 112.0.s after logging a new two-and-a-half month high just ahead of the London open at 113.20. The dollar also ebbed back some… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Sep 28, 2017

The dollar has rallied out of correction lows that were seen after the London interbank close yesterday. USD-JPY recouped to around 113.00, back within scope of yesterday’s two-and-a-half-month peak at 113.25, rebounding from a pullback low at 112.37. EUR-USD dropped back under 1.1730 after yesterday’s rebound from a five-month low at 1.1717 capped out at… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Sep 27, 2017

The dollar started Wednesday’s N.Y. session on a firmer footing, aided slightly by a stronger U.S. durables report. The greenback later gave back ground to the euro and yen. EUR-USD bottomed at better than one-month lows of 1.1719, before topping later at 1.1776. USD-JPY meanwhile, peaked at 113.25, a two-month peak, though profit taking over… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Bullish Yellen Sends Dollar Higher

OVERVIEW The US Dollar appreciated against a basket of currencies as a rate hike before the end of the year looks possible.  The Pound hit a 10-week high against the Euro today on the back of strong retail sales numbers.  The South African Rand has slumped as the African country strikes against government corruption.  HIGHLIGHT … Read more »

Even leaving out the hurricane affected South, new home sales decline

Yesterday’s new home sales report, on a nationwide basis anyway, can be thrown into the trash basket.  As the Census Bureau made clear, about 30% fewer counties in Florida and Texas were unable to report. Further, those two states combined accounted for 14% of the total market in 2016. Note, by the way, that Irma… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Sep 27, 2017

The dollar saw a fresh upward phase, with USD-JPY gaining some 0.6 in making a two-and-a-half-month high at 112.88, and EUR-USD losing 0.5% in making a one-month low at 1.1731. The dollar also posted new highs versus the pound, the Canadian dollar and other dollar bloc currencies, and most other developed- and developing-world currencies. The… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Sep 27, 2017

The dollar has remained buoyant. USD-JPY rallied to a four-session peak at 112.54, more than reversing the declines of late last week when markets were fretting about the escalation in the war in words between Trump and Kim. Remarks yesterday from Fed’s Yellen, that the central bank “should be wary of moving too gradually,” along… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Euro Tumbles as German Coalition Talks Loom

OVERVIEW Euro slips under 1.1800 against the Dollar for the first time in a month. Sterling slips as EU President Tusk say Brexit negotiations are not ready for the next stage yet. Euro is set for its worst day this year on political instability in Germany. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis:… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Sep 26, 2017

The dollar was on the uptick through the morning session, then rallied broadly following Yellen’s comments, where she left a December rate hike firmly on the table, saying the Fed should be “wary of moving too gradually.” EUR-USD initially moved up to 1.1795 from 1.1780, before falling to new one-month lows of 1.1758. USD-JPY topped… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Sep 26, 2017

The dollar has been in rally mode today, especially against the euro and kiwi dollar, currencies that have both been left reeling following weekend election results in Germany and New Zealand, respectively. EUR-USD dove to a one-month low of 1.1793. EUR-JPY and other euro crosses also came off, though the biggest magnitude of decline was… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Sep 26, 2017

USD-JPY tumbled to around 111.50 after North Korea said Trump’s threats of last week were tantamount to a declaration of war. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses also dropped as the yen’s safe haven premium came back into play. We expect USD-JPY, which is coming out of a five big figure rally from early September levels… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Euro Slumps as Angela Merkel Scrapes by Into Fourth Term

OVERVIEW Sterling opened lower today after Moody’s downgraded the UK’s sovereign rating late on Friday. The Euro is firmly on the backfoot after the German election results over the weekend.  FED member Dudley says US economy is in a pretty good place.  Kiwi elections fail to produce a majority, so coalition negotiations are set to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Sep 25, 2017

The dollar firmed up some in N.Y. on Monday, taking the DXY to 92.72 highs, levels last seen on September 5. The notable exception was USD-JPY, which fell from over 112.30 to under 111.50 as N. Korea equated Trump’s recent comments to a declaration of war, saying it had the right to shoot down U.S…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Sep 25, 2017

The euro has come under across-the-board pressure following the German election result, which has left Merkel in place as Chancellor but in a weakened position, heralding a lengthy period of coalition-building talks. The September German Ifo business confidence survey also underwhelmed. EUR-USD dove over 0.6% in logging a three-session low at 1.1881. EUR-JPY and other… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Sep 25, 2017

The euro has come under pressure following the election in German, which produced the expected win for Merkel but saw her party and the SPD coalition partner lose ground to the nationalist AfD, the upshot of which is political uncertainty as there is no easy coalition options. EUR-USD and euro crosses are likely to remain… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: The Positive Trend Continues

            The OECD released their latest global growth forecast this week, calling for a slight uptick in overall activity.  OECD GDP is projected to be 3.5% this year – the highest in four years.  Russia and Brazil are projected to grow as well.  But global structural issues remain.  Trade and… Read more »

US Equity and Economic Week in Review: Hurricane Damage Looks To Be Contained

            There are four elements of a time series: the actual trend (which is determined using moving averages of various lengths), cyclical movements (regular events that occur over more than 12-months), seasonal movements (regular events that occur over less than 12 months) and irregular events.  Hurricanes Irma and Harvey provide… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Sep 22, 2017

The dollar was marginally firmer in N.Y. trade on Friday, with end of week position squaring behind the move. EUR-USD slipped under 1.1940 from over 1.1980 at the open, while USD-JPY stumbled early, reportedly on pre-weekend safe-haven yen buying the driver. The pairing later recovered the 112 handle. USD-CAD spiked up on softer Canada CPI… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Sep 22, 2017

USD-JPY dove under 112.00 in Tokyo trading after North Korea threatened to detonate an H-bomb in the Pacific. The pair left a low at 111.65 before settling and recouping the 112.00 level during the London AM session. The dollar posted declines against other currencies. EUR-USD rallied to a peak of 1.2004 following much stronger than… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Sep 22, 2017

The dollar has traded softer, correcting some following the sharp gains seen in the wake of the Fed’s hawkish turn on Wednesday. EUR-USD nudged above 1.1960, up over a big figure form the post-Fed low, and USD-JPY tipped to a low of 111.65, correcting after rallying in eight of the previous nine sessions and putting… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Sep 21, 2017

The dollar gave back some of its post-FOMC gains seen on Wednesday, losing modest ground to all the major currencies. The move came despite decent U.S. data, which saw jobless claims below expectations, and a firmer Philly Fed index and leading indicators. EUR-USD bottomed at 1.1899 after the early data, before making its way to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Dollar Rally Fades as Market Doubts Fed Plans

OVERVIEW USD had rallied strongly after FOMC announced an end to Q.E. and signaled a further rate rise. GBP firm after BBC reports PM May will announce €20 billion payments to EU. CAD recovering from a post-Fed dip on strong domestic data.  EUR steady as consumer confidence rises by more than expected. AUD weaker after… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Sep 21, 2017

The dollar posted fresh highs versus the yen, Swiss franc and some other currencies, though the overall breadth and momentum of gains waned as markets digest the Fed’s hawkish up-gearing. EUR-USD floated back above 1.1900, leaving unchallenged yesterday’s post-Fed low at 1.1861. USD-JPY, by contrast, managed to lift to a new four-month high, at 112.71,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Sep 21, 2017

The dollar has opened in London about 1% higher following the Fed’s announcement yesterday, which confirmed the start of a QT program, as had been widely anticipated, but showed via the dot plot that another rate hike is in the works before year-end followed by another three hikes in 2018. The BoJ subsequently announced unchanged… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Sep 20, 2017

FX trade was quiet through the morning session, with activity muted ahead of the FOMC announcement. The dollar rose, then fell, then rose again following the Fed, as it detailed the kickoff of its QT program, as widely expected, and left another 2017 rate hike on the table. EUR-USD spiked to eight session highs of… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: The Fed is Determined to Get Inflation Wrong

            Today, the Federal Reserve issued their latest monetary policy statement, keeping rates at 1%-1.25%.  They describe the economy as expanding moderately: the labor market continues to grow, households are spending and investment is picking up.  But they once again argued inflation would reach 2% in the medium term.  The… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Broadly Lower Ahead of the Fed

OVERVIEW NZD is out-performing on latest poll showing ruling National Party ahead of Labour.  GBP boosted by strong August retail sales fails to hold gains. AUD testing higher after comments from the RBA’s Luci Ellis on the global economy. Brent crude oil prices at highest since July 2015. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE… Read more »

Housing permits: restrain your enthusiasm (Part 1 of 2)

Hurricane Harvey almost certainly had an effect on the August housing report, and Irma will like join it in affecting the September report as well.  Here is the Census Bureau’s statement, in relevant part, on the effect of the hurricanes: Source: XE news feed Housing permits: restrain your enthusiasm (Part 1 of 2)

XE Market Analysis: North America – Sep 20, 2017

The dollar traded generally softer as markets anticipate the Fed’s policy announcement and statement. The pound was notable today as it rallied strongly on above-forecast retail sales data out of the UK, but subsequently gave back most of its gains as the latest tri-monthly BoE agents survey of anecdotal activity made for less rosy reading.[EUR,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Sep 20, 2017

The euro has remained bid, despite a report of there not being a consensus among ECB policymakers about when to begin tapering. EUR-USD logged a nine-day high at 1.2020 and EUR-JPY remaining buoyant, although below the 22-month high seen yesterday. USD-JPY, meanwhile, has settled to a consolidation after rallying quite strongly over the last week… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Remains Soft as Fed Meeting Begins

OVERVIEW US housing starts fell for a second straight month, and building permits rise. German ZEW survey stronger than expected, economic sentiment index rises to 17.0 from 10.0 in August. GB Pound jumps 0.5 cents versus US Dollar after reports on Boris Johnson resign. Euro slips after ECB sources say board split on setting an… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Sep 19, 2017

The dollar stumbled some early in the session in N.Y. on Tuesday, though was little impacted by the combination of firmer import prices, a wider current account deficit, and near in-line housing starts. Risk appetite perked up some, allowing the greenback to hold its own through the close. USD-JPY sold off on the back of… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Sep 19, 2017

The dollar has traded mixed into the New York interbank open and into the start of the two-day FOMC, posting fresh highs versus the yen and Swiss franc, firming against the pound, while seeing new lows against the euro and Australian dollar. This partly reflects that markets have low expectations from the Fed with regard… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Sep 19, 2017

The yen continued to weaken and the euro outperform, which drove EUR-JPY, now up in eight of the last nine sessions, to a 22-month peak at 134.14. USD-JPY, meanwhile, logged a new two-month high, at 111.88. Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Europe – Sep 19, 2017

XE Market Analysis: British Pound Slips as Governor Warns of "Considerable Risks"

OVERVIEW Majority of FX relatively quiet ahead of the FOMC meeting. GBP under pressure after the best week in years. US stocks hit fresh highs and safe-haven Yen under pressure as risk sentiment improves. Eurozone CPI confirmed at 1.5% in August. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: British Pound Slips as Governor… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Sep 18, 2017

The dollar started the new week on a mixed footing, managing to eke out a fresh two-month high versus the yen, at 111.44, recouping of the ground lost last week against the pound, while oscillating well within Friday’s range in the case against the euro and the Canadian dollar, among other currencies. The main event… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Sep 18, 2017

The dollar majors have been in consolidation mode in thin early-week trading, in the absence of Tokyo markets, where were closed in observance of a Japanese public holiday. USD-JPY firmed up some early on, settling above 111.10 but holding below Friday’s 111.33 two-month peak. EUR-USD made time in the mid 1.19s. Sterling has started the… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: Harvey hits the data edition

August data was all affected by Harvey, and included declines in both industrial production and retail sales, but an increase in whole business sales and inventories. YoY PPI and CPI both rose.    Source: XE news feed Weekly Indicators: Harvey hits the data edition

XE Market Analysis: Sterling Soars on Interest Rate Hike Expectation

OVERVIEW Sterling hit its highest level against the Dollar since the Brexit vote. Dollar gives back ground after poor retail sales figures. Risk aversion after missile launch hurts exotic currencies.  HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Sterling Soars on Interest Rate Hike Expectation

XE Market Analysis: North America – Sep 15, 2017

The dollar traded mostly softer, although gained against the yen, and fell sharply in the case against sterling, which rallied strongly following hawkish remarks by a reputationally dovish BoE MPC member. USD-JPY logged a two-month high at 111.32, despite news that North Korea had launched another missile over Japan, achieving a range that would reach… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Sep 15, 2017

USD-JPY dove only briefly on news of missile test by North Korea, which was again the Japan vaulting kind, similar to the missile test of a couple weeks back. The pair logged a 109.55 low after dropping about 70 pips amid a bout of safe haven positioning, though subsequently more than recovered, to around 110.60…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Sep 14, 2017

The dollar rallied early in the N.Y. session on Thursday, driven by hotter U.S. CPI numbers, and better than expected jobless claims data. Initial gains were largely negated however, as reports that N. Korea was preparing a new ICBM test hit the wires. EUR-USD fell from 1.19 to 1.1839 lows, before spiking to session highs… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: British Pound Surges as Bank of England Warns of Rate Hike

OVERVIEW Pound jumps as BoE hold rates, but turns more hawkish as housing survey improves. The US Dollar fails to hold gains after stronger inflation data.  The Swiss Franc is weaker despite central bank saying currency less overvalued. The Australian Dollar dips despite very strong jobs data. Japanese Yen strengthens after North Korea threatens to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Sep 14, 2017

The dollar traded perkily in Asia, spurred on by apparent fresh momentum behind the White House plans for tax reform. Republican congressional leaders talked up an “outline” on reforms by the week of September 25th, and the White House hosted a bipartisan dinner to keep the heat on both sides to step up on reforms…. Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: There is an Inherent Weakness in the PCE Price Deflator That the Fed Isn't Considering

            For most of this expansion, the Fed has publicly stated that it is using a 2% inflation target.  In addition, their models have continually had a “just around the corner” feature, where, despite currently weak PCE measures, higher inflation would occur in the near future.             Unfortunately, a historical… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Sep 13, 2017

The dollar’s post-weekend “relief” recovery ran out of gas today, although the buck still saw a fresh higher versus an underperforming yen. Cable, extending the sharp gains seen after yesterday’s perky UK inflation data, also traded softer after wage data came in off expectations, despite a new cycle low in unemployment.[EUR, USD] Source: XE… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Sep 13, 2017

The dollar rebound rally has lost gas, with EUR-USD edging out a two-day high and the buck trading softer versus sterling, the Australian dollar, among others, although USD-JPY still managed to eke out a 12-day high. The dollar had been shorted into the weekend, when concerns about the impact of Hurricane Irma and fresh ratcheting… Read more »

The unholy triad of housing (un)affordability

One of the distressing trends I have been keeping track of for the last several years is the “rental affordability crisis.”  This is the moniker put on the trend by the Department of Housing and Urban Development for the fact that rents have been rising far faster than income among the lower quartiles, causing the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Sep 12, 2017

The dollar carved out new rebound highs versus the yen and euro, among some other currencies, though traded lower in some cases, most notably the pound, which rallied strongly following perkier than expected UK inflation data. USD-JPY continued to gain as markets react to a sense of reduced risks stemming from North Korea and Hurricane… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Sep 12, 2017

The dollar carved out new rebound highs during the Asia session. USD-JPY continued to lead the way as markets react to a sense of reduced risks stemming from North Korea and Hurricane Irma, with the former having refrained from further missile testing and the latter now having weakened to a tropical storm rating while tentatively… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Dollar Recovers as Irma Loses Strength

OVERVIEW Market risk sentiment improves after no new missile launches from North Korea. ECB board member, Benoit Coeure, warned that persistent Euro gains might weigh on inflation. Britain’s Brexit minister David Davis warns MP’s over voting against great repeal bill. Canadian housing starts unexpectedly rise in August. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Sep 11, 2017

The dollar was broadly higher in N.Y. on Monday, as risk-on conditions returned. No missile/nuclear activity from N. Korea over the weekend, along with a less dmaging that feared outcome from Hurricane Irma combined to lift the greenback, stocks and Treasury yields. EUR-USD eased to lows under 1.1975 from opening highs near 1.2010. USD-JPY topped… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Sep 11, 2017

The dollar was bid and safe haven currencies have been offered, reportedly on relief that North Korea didn’t conduct another missile test over the weekend (which had been widely feared on Friday). USD-JPY rallied over 0.5% in recouping about a half of the losses seen on Thursday and Friday last week. An intraday peak was… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Sep 11, 2017

The dollar gained while safe haven currencies weakened in early week trade, concomitantly with stock market rallies amid relief that North Korea refrained from conducting a further missile test over the weekend (which had been widely feared heading into the weekend). USD-JPY and USD-CHF led the way, with both showing gains of more than 0.5%… Read more »