Category: Financial Markets

Financial markets news from external sources.

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Aug 15, 2017

USD-JPY extended its rebound for a third session, today making a one-week high at 110.45. EUR-JPY also rose, logging a one-week peak just above 130.0, and other yen crosses also gained. The recovery in risk appetite, as cooler heads prevail in the North Korean situation, has remained the central theme behind broad yen weakening. USD-JPY… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Aug 14, 2017

The dollar was little changed overall in N.Y. trade on Monday, with major pairings keeping inside of relatively narrow trading bands. Risk appetite returned after N. Korea/U.S. rhetoric was ratcheted down over the weekend, as a diplomatic path remains in favor, which kept the greenback underpinned. EUR-USD topped at 1.1802 early, and later managed 1.1770… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Japan's Economy Surges as Domestic Demand Strengthens

OVERVIEW Risk sentiment has improved after U.S. military officials downplayed risks of imminent confrontation with North Korea. Safe-haven Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen are both weaker. Eurozone industrial output dropped more than expected in June. New Zealand retail sales beat expectations, rising 2% in the second quarter. Chinese industrial output, investment, and retail sales all… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Aug 14, 2017

The dollar recovered some of Friday’s lost ground, seen after the tepid CPI data out of the U.S. EUR-USD ebbed back under 1.1800, putting in some distance from Friday’s 10-day high at 1.1847. USD-JPY led gains as the yen came under pressure concomitantly with an improvement in risk appetite, with stocks in both Asia and… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Aug 14, 2017

The dollar steadied after Friday’s tip lower in the wake of the Fed-outlook-muddying CPI data out of the U.S., while the yen came under general pressure as risk appetite made a recovery in early-week trading, and despite much stronger than expected Japanese GDP data. USD-JPY and EUR-JPY lifted to respective two- and four-session highs at… Read more »

US Equity and Economic Week in Review: Is Softer Consumer Spending Fatal?

            Consumer spending – which accounts for 70% of U.S. gross domestic product – has softened since the beginning of the year.  The drop is not fatal and could be reversed over the next 6 to 12 months, allaying the concerns expressed here.  But the modest downtrend has occurred long enough to cause concern. … Read more »

US Equity and Economic Week in Review: The Markets Took A Technical Hit Last Week

     Thanks to geopolitical events, the markets sold off this week.  There was sufficient technical damage to change the market’s currently bullish sentiment.              Let’s start with several 5-minute charts: Source: XE news feed US Equity and Economic Week in Review: The Markets Took A Technical Hit Last Week

Weekly Indicators: dog days edition

July data consisted of a weakly positive CPI plus a weakly negative PPI. June data included a rise in both wholesale sales and inventories, a slight decline in the JOLTS measures of hires and quits, but a one year high in layoffs and discharges, and a new all-time high in openings. In the rear view… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Aug 11, 2017

The dollar nose-dived after the cooler U.S. CPI data in N.Y. trade on Friday, sending yields lower in the process. Equity futures, which had been under water ahead of the numbers, bounced on a bad new is good news effect, and later, Wall Street posted modest gains. EUR-USD popped to one-week highs of 1.1835 from… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Risk Off Sentiment Dominates World Markets

OVERVIEW US Dollar slides as CPI disappoints. Sterling ends the week down across the board on a poor economic outlook. Euro remains strong on positive sentiment for the single currency. Korean Won continues its slide on the growing tensions between the US and North Korea. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Risk… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: Another Underwhelming Inflation Report

        Today’s inflation report was underwhelming, further confirming that upward price pressures are contained.  Core and overall CPI are 1.7% Y/Y: Source: XE news feed US Bond Market Week in Review: Another Underwhelming Inflation Report

XE Market Analysis: North America – Aug 11, 2017

After modest gyrations overnight, the dollar is little changed from Thursday’s N.Y. closing levels. EUR-USD trades near 1.1765, with USD-JPY at 109.15, after printing new two-month lows of 108.91 in London. Risk-off conditions have again largely prevailed, with the U.S/N. Korea war of words driving market fears. USD-CAD has remained over the 1.2700 mark, as… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Aug 11, 2017

USD-JPY dove to a new eight-week low, this time at 108.90, and EUR-JPY fell to a one-month low at 128.18 as the yen continued to rally as investors flocked to safe haven assets and currencies. The Swissie has been relatively soft, weakening over the last day versus the yen, illustrating that Swiss currency has lost… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Aug 10, 2017

Risk-off remained front and center in N.Y. trade on Thursday, leaving the dollar mostly lower. Softer U.S. PPI data didn’t help the greenback, which lost ground to the euro and yen, while making marginal gains against the CAD and pound. EUR-USD topped at 1.1772 from lows of 1.1718, as USD-JPY printed nearly two-month lows of… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: New Zealand Dollar Slides After RBNZ Warning

OVERVIEW  Fed Vice Chairman, Dudley, said he expects U.S. inflation to increase over the medium term to 2%. U.S. producer prices fell at the fastest pace in nearly a year. U.K. RICS survey showed house price growth at its weakest in over 4 years. U.K. trade deficit widened unexpectedly in June as exports fell almost… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Aug 10, 2017

Risk aversion remained in play despite U.S. Secretary of State Tillerson’s reassurances. USD-JPY turned back under 110.00 after failing to sustain gains above here during the Tokyo session, making an intraday low at 109.76 but remaining above yesterday’s eight-week low at 109.56. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses also turned lower, with the yen remaining in… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Aug 10, 2017

The dollar majors have been steady, while the New Zealand dollar has taken a hit following dovish guidance from the RBNZ policymakers in the wake of its expected decision to leave its cash rate at 1.75%. While the Kiwi central bank’s SMP wasn’t as dovish as markets had anticipated, RBNZ’s McDermott subsequently advised markets to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North Korea Threat Unsettles Markets

OVERVIEW Markets are in a very risk averse mood following North Korea’s missile threat. Trump is vowing to respond with “fire and fury” adding to nervousness. Chinese factory price inflation held steady in July which is a positive sign for businesses. South Africa’s president survived another no-confidence vote. Australian consumer sentiment fell to its lowest… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Aug 09, 2017

The dollar firmed up some in morning N.Y. trade on Wednesday, with gains coming from comments from U.S. SecState downplaying the chances of conflict with N. Korea. General risk-off conditions prevailed however, following Trump’s “fire and fury” statement, and Pyongyang’s subsequent threat to attack Guam. Wall Street ended lower, though losses were relatively narrow. EUR-USD… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Aug 09, 2017

A risk-off sentiment supported the yen and Swiss franc as safe haven currencies and assets came into demand amid an escalation in threatening rhetoric between North Korea and the U.S, with Trump promising Pyongyang “fire and fury” and North Korea responding by threatening to strike Guam. USD-JPY dove to a seven-week low at 109.65, and… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Aug 09, 2017

A risk-off sentiment supported the yen and Swiss franc as safe haven currencies and assets came into demand amid an escalation in threatening rhetoric between North Korea and the U.S, with Trump promising Pyongyang “fire and fury.” North Korea’s development of nuclear warhead carrying ICBM capability is the issue, and the flare up in tensions… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: British Pound At 10-month Versus Euro

OVERVIEW The Dollar is recovering in generally quiet summer markets despite dovish Fed comments. China’s exports and imports grew less than expected in July. South African Rand is unchanged as the market eagerly awaits the Zuma no confidence vote. German exports unexpectedly fell 2.8% in June, the biggest drop in almost 2 years. The BRC… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Aug 08, 2017

The dollar rallied to intra day highs versus the major currencies at mid-morning in N.Y on Tuesday, with the only obvious factors being the record JOLTS job openings figures, and the uptick in the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index. EUR-USD fell to eight-session lows of 1.1716, while USD-JPY has topped 110.83, up from session lows of… Read more »

A noisy long leading indicator turns negative

There is a variety of economic commentators I call Doomers.  They haven’t seen a single piece of positive news for the entire duration of the eight year expansion. Everything is always on the cusp of imploding or crashing. Because of their strong point of view, and because of confirmation bias, they attract a loyal —… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Aug 08, 2017

EUR-USD remained directionally challenged, holding a narrow orbit of the 1.1800 level, above last Friday’s post-U.S. payrolls at 1.1728 while comfortably below last Wednesday’s 31-month peak at 1.1910. NZD-USD continued to trade heavily into the RBNZ meeting on Thursday amid expectations for the central bank to lay down some relatively dovish guidance given low inflation… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Aug 08, 2017

Narrow ranges have prevailed so far today. USD-JPY saw modest downside drift during the Tokyo session, making a two-session low at 110.54. Bigger than expected declines in both Chinese import and export data put a dent in global growth optimism and weighed on stock markets in the Asia region, in turn catalysing some demand for… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Aug 07, 2017

The dollar edged slightly higher in N.Y. trade on Monday, though the DXY was unable to top Friday’s one-week gains to 93.77, topping at 93.54. There was no data to drive the FX market, with traders largely taking a wait and see stance ahead of U.S. inflation data later in the week. EUR-USD ranged between… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Aug 07, 2017

EUR-USD ebbed back under 1.1800 after a short-lived push above this level, leaving a high at 1.1814. Euro crosses saw a similar price action. EUR-CHF, for instance, briefly popped its head above 1.1500 before dipping back below it. Both EUR-USD and EUR-CHF remain well within their respective ranges of Friday. An unexpected 1.1% m/m dip… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Aug 07, 2017

The dollar has consolidated its post-payrolls gains of Friday, and looks set to remain buoyant with Fed speakers this week likely to affirm rekindled market expectations for further tightening. With the Fed seen heading for quantitative tightening as soon as September, U.S. July inflation data, due on Thursday (PPI figures) and Friday (CPI figures), will… Read more »

US Equity and Economic Week in Review: Should We Worry About Somewhat Weaker Personal Spending Figures?

            The employment report was this week’s most notable economic release.  Total jobs increased 209,000 while the unemployment rate was unchanged.  Most importantly, the 3, 6 and 12-month moving averages of monthly job growth are all between 150,000 and 200,000: Source: XE news feed US Equity and Economic Week in Review: Should We… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: Two Banks Maintain Current Policy

            This week two banks had interest rate decisions, the reserve bank of Australia and the Bank of England.  Australia maintained their current rate policy.  Their statement contained the following analysis of the Australian economy: Source: XE news feed International Economic Week in Review: Two Banks Maintain Current Policy

Weekly Indicators: all clear again this week edition

June data started out with a positive employment report, and both ISM manufacturing and services indexes were positive, as were factory orders. Personal income was flat, while personal spending rose slightly. Construction spending fell.   Source: XE news feed Weekly Indicators: all clear again this week edition

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Aug 04, 2017

The dollar rallied sharply in N.Y. trade on Friday, aided by a solid U.S. July jobs report, a narrowed trade deficit, and by talk from White House Economic Advisor Cohn talking up tax incentives to repatriate overseas corporate cash hoards. The DXY rallied to highs of the week, topping at 93.75 from an intra day… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Takes a Breather After Good Employment Data

OVERVIEW US Dollar spikes after non-farm payroll numbers outperform expectations.  RBA says the current Aussie Dollar levels are not a major drag on the economy. Sterling remains on the back foot after BoE meetings yesterday. Canadian unemployment rate drops to 6.3%. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Takes a Breather… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Aug 04, 2017

EUR-USD continued to hold in a tight range in the upper 1.18s, below Wednesday’s 31-month peak at 1.1910. Selling interest at and above 1.1900 was mentioned on market forums, and good sized offers were reportedly put through EUR-CHF after the cross forayed above 1.1500 in Asia and early London trade. Stronger than expected German manufacturing… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Aug 04, 2017

The dollar majors have been plying narrow ranges for the most part. EUR-USD held in the upper 1.18s, below the 31-month high logged midweek at 1.1910, and Cable settled in the mid 1.31s, consolidating the sharp losses seen yesterday in the wake of the BoE’s guidance yesterday, which largely kicked expectations for a 25 bp… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Aug 03, 2017

The dollar was again soft through the N.Y. session on Thursday, though the DXY did manage to stay above Wednesday’s 15-month low of 92.55. Incoming U.S. data was mixed, as factory orders recovered, while the services ISM missed the mark. EUR-USD based at 1.1844 at mid-morning, before rallying to 1.1893 highs, under the trend peak… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Pound Tumbles After Bank of England Meeting

OVERVIEW Sterling plummets after Bank of England cut inflation and growth forecasts. Australian imports climb to record high on the back of stronger Aussie Dollar.  Czech central bank leads Europe with the first interest rate hike in over 5 years. U.S. manufacturing sector struggles in July, printing an 11-month low for the ISM non-manufacturing index…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Aug 03, 2017

Consolidation ruled the day into the BoE announcement, which in the event sparked a strong sell reaction on sterling. Cable lost a big figure in posting a low at 1.3139, which is a three-session low, before finding a toehold. The BoE’s left the repo rate at 0.25% by a vote of 6-2 at the Monetary… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Aug 03, 2017

EUR-USD has settled lower after hitting a new 31-month high at 1.1910 after the London interbank close yesterday. The pair has since ebbed under 1.1850, opening in London with a softening bias. EUR-CHF has seen a similar price action, also hitting a 31-month peak yesterday, at 1.1524, before coming off the boil. Ditto for EUR-JPY,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Aug 02, 2017

The euro stormed to new major trend highs before correcting somewhat. EUR-USD hit a new 31-month peak at 1.1836, and EUR-JPY a 19-month high at 131.40. EUR-CHF was off to the races again, with market participants now feeling confident enough, in contrast to how they felt for most of the time since the Eurozone crisis… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Aug 02, 2017

The dollar majors have traded mixed so far today in relatively narrow ranges. One mover of note has been USD-CAD, which has lifted to a 12-day high at 1.2586, with the pair in process of constructing its biggest rebound since early May. A drop in oil prices, with the WTI benchmark tumbling today below $49.0,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Aug 01, 2017

The dollar was pressured early in the session, with mixed U.S. data taking its toll, and allowing the DXY to touch fresh 14-month lows. The greenback later recovered some later in the session, though not markedly so. EUR-USD pulled back from 1.1839 after failing to take out Monday’s trend high, while USD-JPY slipped briefly under… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Damaged by Trump Whitehouse

OVERVIEW The US Dollar has continued to tumble today after communications from chief Anthony Scaramucci is sacked. British Pound is steady as UK house prices outperform expectations in July. UK manufacturing soars on a major jump in new export orders.  Royal Bank of Australia leaves interest rates unchanged, however, cites a strong Dollar as hampering… Read more »

A Look at the positive long leading indicatos

Several weeks ago I wrote that I was turning neutral on the 12+ forecast, due to the downturns in 3 of the 4 original long leading indicators. So I thought I would follow up by noting the ones that remain positive.   I already noted that real M1 is still quite positive:  Source: XE… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Aug 01, 2017

EUR-USD remained in a oscillation in the low 1.18s, reflecting a broader consolidation in the common currency following recent outperformance. A sub-forecast Eurozone manufacturing PMI for July had little impact on the forex market, with the 56.6 headline reading still a relatively high level, indicating robust expansion, while the new business reading was particularly encouraging…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Aug 01, 2017

The narrow trade-weighted dollar index hit a new low at 92.64, which is the lowest level seen in 17 months. EUR-USD, which the index correlates closely with, logged a new 30-month peak at 1.1846 in the early Asia-Pacific session, while USD-JPY logged a six-week low at 110.18. The latest cabinet drama in Washington was blamed… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jul 31, 2017

After attempting to move higher early in the N.Y. session on Monday, the dollar fell back once again, resulting in a fresh DXY low of 92.92, levels last seen in May of 2016. EUR-USD printed new 2.5 year highs, trading over its 200-week moving average, on its way to 1.1831 highs. USD-JPY faded on the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Dollar Slumps Ahead of Key Economic Data

OVERVIEW The Pound hit a fresh 10-month high but has disappointing UK mortgage approvals in July. Eurozone core inflation hits a 4-year high that energizes the Euro. The Sterling is in the limelight as we enter a major week of UK data. South African Rand slumps as Moody’s rating agency points out political interference. U.S…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jul 31, 2017

The dollar traded modestly firmer against the euro, sterling and other currenceis, while holding near net unchanged versus the yen, after USD-JPY recovered from a post-Japanese data dip to a six-week low of 110.31. EUR-CHF, which rallied over 3% last week, rallied back toward 1.1400 after consolidating in the mid 1.13s, bringing Friday’s 18-month high… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jul 31, 2017

USD-JPY logged a six-week low at 110.31 in the Tokyo session before recouping above 110.50, returning to near last week’s closing level at 110.64. The low was the product of a phase of yen buying aa markets in Asia to a turn in reacting to North Korea’s test firing of another ICBM late on Friday…. Read more »

Weekly indicators: what's ailing rail? edition

June data included an increase in new home sales, but a decrease in existing home sales. Median sales prices for both types of housing showed YoY deceleration. The Case-Shiller index, however, did not. Durable goods orders and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index both rose.      Source: XE news feed Weekly indicators:… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jul 28, 2017

Disappointing U.S. Q2 GDP data weighed on the dollar in N.Y. trade on Friday, pushing yields lower in the process, and keep a lid on Wall Street. EUR-USD rallied from near 1.1720 ahead of the data, later topping at 1.1764. USD-JPY meanwhile, fell under 110.70 from highs near 111.30. USD-CAD fell sharply to 1.2420 from… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: U.S. Consumer Spending Boosts Economy

OVERVIEW The British Pound is stable today as a soft Brexit looks likely. Swiss Franc ends the week lower as central banker says the currency is still overvalued. The U.S. economy grew at it’s fastest pace in two years. HIGHLIGHT The U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in two years in the second quarter… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jul 28, 2017

The Swiss franc, in its sudden new-found role of fund currency of choice, continued to march lower, while the euro found fresh demand after correcting yesterday on the back of strong data leads out of the Eurozone. EUR-CHF rallied nearly 1%, gaining for a fourth consecutive day and logging a fresh 18-month high at 1.1380…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jul 28, 2017

The Swiss franc tumbled for a four straight session, driving EUR-CHF to a 1.1363 high, a level not seen since the SNB abandoned its former 1.2000 floor in January 2015. USD-CHF, meanwhile, rallied to a one-month peak, at 0.9721. The price action affirms the sentiment sea-change that’s been afoot this week, underpinned by a combo… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jul 27, 2017

The dollar picked up some recently lost ground in N.Y. trade on Thursday, aided by outsized durable orders gains, and advance trade and inventory figures, which bumped up our Q2 GDP estimate to 3.0%. EUR-USD faded from overnight trend highs of 1.1776, dropping to 1.1650 lows. USD-JPY meanwhile struggled to 111.71 highs, though as Wall… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jul 27, 2017

The dollar rebounded during the European AM session after posting fresh lows versus the euro, yen, Canadian dollar, and many other currencies during the Asian session, where markets digested Fed’s statement of yesterday, which showed a higher degree of low-inflation angst than in the previous statement. The narrow trade-weighted USD index recouped to near 93.50… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jul 27, 2017

The Fed’s statement has put the dollar under the cosh, pushing the narrow trade-weighted USD index to a 14-month low of 93.0 while EUR-USD scaled to a 30-month high of 1.1776 and USD-JPY fell towards the six-week low at 110.62 that was seen earlier in the week. The dollar’s losses have been concomitant with a… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jul 26, 2017

The dollar was rangebound ahead of the FOMC in N.Y. on Wednesday. The greenback initially bounced, then eased back after the Fed announcement, where rates were left unchanged, as expected. EUR-USD fell to 1.1629 from near 1.1650 before bouncing to 1.1706. USD-JPY meanwhile, topped at session highs of 112.20, then slipped to 111.52 lows. The… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: UK Economy Remains in Low Gear

OVERVIEW FX relatively quiet as the market awaits the FOMC decision. U.S. new home sales rose 610k in June, a similar pace to May that is in line with market forecasts. Australian CPI slowed unexpectedly in the second quarter, dampening rate hike bets. Australia’s central bank governor Philip Lowe said he is “very comfortable” with… Read more »

Do daily corporate tax receipts forecast quarterly profits?

Sometimes it’s worthwhile to show you something that doesn’t pan out, just to show you that I don’t cherry-pick data. It has to be worthwhile and reasonably consistent for me to include it in my surveys. Source: XE news feed Do daily corporate tax receipts forecast quarterly profits?

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jul 26, 2017

The trade-weighed USD index inched upwards, to a three-session high at 94.12 as market participants anticipate the Fed’s policy announcement and guidance later today. USD-JPY lifted briefly above 112.00 during the Tokyo session before settling lower, while EUR-USD extended the correction from yesterday’s 23-month high at 1.1711, ebbing to a low of 1.1612. Source:… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jul 26, 2017

The Aussie dollar took a rap following sub-forecast CPI data out of Australia, which came in at 1.9% y/y in Q2 versus the median forecast for 2.2% y/y, while the underlying rate remained stubbornly below the RBA’s target range. AUD-USD is just off its lows, at 0.7884 bid presently, showing a 0.7% decline on the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jul 25, 2017

Decent incoming U.S. data supported the dollar in N.Y. on Tuesday, while earnings beats helped Wall Street, resulting in higher Treasury yields, also dollar friendly. EUR-USD topped at 1.1712 before profit taking took the pairing to 1.1646 lows. USD-JPY meanwhile, was supported by risk-on conditions, topping at 111.68. USD-CAD edged higher from new trend lows… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Euro Hits Fresh 23-month High as German Exporters "Euphoric"

OVERVIEW German business morale hits a record high in July, with Euro’s rise not a concern. U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly rose in July, just shy of a 17-year high. U.S. house prices rose at a slower than expected pace in April. Market sentiment has improved with global stocks in positive territory and oil prices also… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jul 25, 2017

The dollar trade mostly without direction during the Asian and European AM sessions. USD-JPY lifting to a two-session peak of 111.46 amid a broad-but-modest tick lower in the yen, while EUR-USD narrowly orbited the 1.1650 level, continuing the consolidation after the pair clocked a 23-month high on Friday at 1.1684. USD-CAD, and other commodity currency… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jul 25, 2017

Narrow ranges have been the order of the day so far, with a combo of a dearth of fresh directional cues, summertime thinness, and the looming proximity of the Fed’s policy announcement (tomorrow) fostering a noncommittal market. USD-JPY dipped back under 111.00, reflective of a broad though moderate bid in the yen, which has been… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jul 24, 2017

The dollar has managed an up day today against most currencies (the Canadian dollar being the main exception), albeit fractionally so, with the narrow traded-weighted index showing a 0.1% gain after recouping from intraday losses. EUR-USD has settled around 1.1630-40, earlier edging out a fresh intraday low at 1.1625, which matched Friday’s low. USD-JPY recovered… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Remains Under Pressure from Russia Investigation

OVERVIEW The Euro dipped back from 23-month highs following softer economic data. IHS Markit said its monthly UK Household Finance Index dropped to 41.8 from June’s 43.7, its lowest in 3 years. The US existing home sales fell more than expected last month, but price median prices hit a record high. Markit’s US manufacturing and… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jul 24, 2017

EUR-USD settled under 1.1650 after drifting lower from the London open, putting in some space from the Asia-session 23-month high at 1.1684. Softer than expected Eurozone PMI readings in flash estimates for June weighed on the common currency. Reuters also reported an unnamed source saying that the ECB is won’t making a decision on the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jul 24, 2017

USD-JPY carved out a five-week low at 110.86 during the Tokyo session. The move reflected a bout of broad dollar selling, with yen crosses generally holding narrow ranges over this phase. EUR-USD edged out a new 23-month high at 1.1684, despite Reuters reporting an unnamed source saying that the ECB won’t be making a decision… Read more »

US Equity and Economic Week in Review: Hey — It's More Modest Growth

       This was a light economic news week for the U.S. economy.  The most important news came from the Conference Board, which released the latest LEI and CEI numbers on Thursday.  On Wednesday, The Census Bureau released building permits and housing starts data.  The markets saw modest advances on the back of solid earnings… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: Memo to the Fed: Prices Just Aren't an Issue

      For the duration of this expansion, the Federal Reserve has continually predicted an increasing pace of inflation.  While their overall rate of projections has trended somewhat lower during the last five years, they still believe inflation will be somewhat higher in the next 12 to 18 months.  The data does not support their projections. … Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: Positive News Continues

     The overall tenor of news from the big G7 economies continues to be modestly bullish.  The EU, continues to grow at a slightly above trend pace, continuing a trend that started in the fourth quarter of 2016.  On the other side of the globe, Japan and Australia continue their modest expansions.  Canada, which… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: a return to positivity in all frames edition

June data was sparse, but an improvement in both housing permits and starts was enough for the most positive reading of the Index of Leading Indicators in several years.   Source: XE news feed Weekly Indicators: a return to positivity in all frames edition

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jul 21, 2017

The dollar took another hit on Friday, taking the DXY to 13-month lows of 93.87. U.S. political concerns and generally shaking risk taking levels have weighed. EUR-USD topped 1.1680, a new 23-month high, while USD-JPY sank to one-month lows of 111.01. USD-CAD continued its losing ways, touching new lows of 1.2522 following strong Canadian retail… Read more »

Are purchase mortgage applications a housing outlier?

All this year, purchase mortgage applications have been something of an outlier in the housing sector. Permits and starts are flat to lower since the end of last year: So are existing home sales, which are about 90% of the market: Source: XE news feed Are purchase mortgage applications a housing outlier?

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jul 21, 2017

EUR-USD clocked a new 23-month high at 1.1677 before tipping back under 1.1650. There appears to be at least some speculation in the interbank market that ECB officials may attempt to walk back some of the hawkish interpretation of markets to yesterday’s communication from Draghi, who perhaps didn’t envisage such a strong euro rally, which… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jul 21, 2017

EUR-USD logged a three-day low at 1.1504 ahead of the London open as markets prepare for the ECB’s policy announcement today, which is likely to signal largely unchanged dovish-leaning guidance while acknowledging economic improvement. EUR-JPY and other euro crosses have been holding up better, however, suggesting that markets are mostly satisfied with their positioning in… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jul 20, 2017

The dollar slumped in N.Y trade on Thursday, with action led by the ECB announcement and press conference, which saw EUR-USD rally to near two-year highs of 1.1658. Chief Draghi attired things up as he attempted to downplay timing and details of next policy moves, the upbeat comments on EU economic strength, and the fact… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Euro Soars After ECB Announcement and Latest Trump News

OVERVIEW The ECB kept monetary policy on hold as expected but unexpectedly kept their guidance unchanged. The Euro hit its highest level since August 2015. UK retail sales were stronger than expected in June, rising 0.6% from May. UK trade minister says the UK could survive without an EU trade deal, reigniting concern over a… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jul 20, 2017

The dollar traded firmer today, rebounding from intraday weakness in the cases against the pound and Australian dollars. EUR-USD slipped to three-day lows under 1.1500 as markets prepare for the ECB’s policy announcement today. EUR-JPY and other euro crosses have been holding up better, however, suggesting that markets are mostly satisfied with their positioning in… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jul 20, 2017

EUR-USD logged a three-day low at 1.1504 ahead of the London open as markets prepare for the ECB’s policy announcement today, which is likely to signal largely unchanged dovish-leaning guidance while acknowledging economic improvement. EUR-JPY and other euro crosses have been holding up better, however, suggesting that markets are mostly satisfied with their positioning in… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jul 19, 2017

The dollar steadied some in N.Y. trade on Wednesday, leaving the DXY slightly higher. EUR-USD eased back to 1.1510 lows, largely on position squaring activity ahead of Thursday’s ECB announcement and press conference. USD-JPY printed three-week lows of 111.56, before moving back over 111.80 on a higher Wall Street. USD-CAD briefly printed fresh 14-month lows… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: The Euro Drifts Lower Ahead of the ECB

OVERVIEW Major currencies are generally quiet, though the Australian Dollar hit a fresh 2-year high versus the US Dollar. U.S. homebuilding rebounded more than expected in June, ending three months of declines. Canadian manufacturing sales rose to a record level in May due to higher sales of motor vehicles and parts.  Global stocks and oil… Read more »

Housing improves, but still not positive

Last month the housing permits and starts report was poor enough for me to score it a negative.  Further, because neither permits nor starts had made new highs since winter, it was sufficient to tip the scales in how I look at the long leading indicators.   Source: XE news feed Housing improves, but… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jul 19, 2017

EUR-USD logged an intraday low at 1.1514 before recouping above 1.1530, leaving yesterday’s 1.1511 low unchallenged. EUR-JPY, EUR-GBP and other euro crosses saw a similar price action. The move comes ahead of the ECB’s policy meeting tomorrow, with markets anticipating a “no change yet in guidance” message from President Draghi, with policymakers likely to take… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jul 19, 2017

The Australian dollar continued to rally and logged a fresh 26-month peak against the U.S. buck, at 0.7947. The currency has now risen in eight out of the last nine sessions, making a convincing break of the 0.7700 level on route. An unexpected peppering of hawkishness in the RBA minutes from the early-July policy meeting,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jul 18, 2017

The dollar largely continued its losing ways in N.Y. on Tuesday, with EUR-USD topping at 14-month highs of 1.1585, and staying over 1.1450 through the remainder of the session: USD-JPY fell to three-week lows of 111.69before recovering over 112.10, as Wall Street pared losses. Cable stayed soft after cooler U.K. inflation figures, while USD-CAD bounced… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Slumps Further on Healthcare Failure

OVERVIEW Dollar tumbles after Trump’s monumental failure on healthcare. Aussie Dollar storms higher after RBA meeting minutes.  UK inflation put the Pound under pressure as CPI slowed unexpectedly. Euro takes advantage of a weaker Dollar and Pound.  HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Slumps Further on Healthcare Failure

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jul 18, 2017

The dollar remained on a declining path, concomitant with the pricing out of Fed rate hike potential in the remainder of 2017. Fed fund futures were in late trade yesterday discounting a 44% probability for a rate 25 bp hike before year-end. EUR-USD rallied to a new 14-month high of 1.1564, despite a weaker than… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jul 18, 2017

Dollar weakness remains the name of the game, which has been concomitant with the pricing out of Fed rate hike potential in the remainder of 2017. Fed fund futures were in late trade yesterday discounting a 44% probability for a rate 25 bp hike before year-end. This follows weak U.S. inflation data for June last… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jul 17, 2017

Aside from EUR-USD which was roughly flat through the N.Y. session on Monday, the dollar posted modest gains versus major currencies. The euro managed just a 1.1487 to 1.1462 trading band, failing to take out last week’s 14-month high, though unable to press much lower into Thursday’s ECB meeting. USD-JPY looked heavy in morning trade,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Chinese Economy Grows Faster Than Expected

OVERVIEW  Eurozone headline inflation slowed as forecast to 1.3%. Canadian home resales fell 6.7% in June from May. UK house prices stabilized after a drop in June according to property website called Rightmove. The first round of full Brexit negotiations kicks off in Brussels. The key market focus this week will be on the ECB… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jul 17, 2017

EUR-USD has settled in the mid 1.14s after edging out a three-session high at 1.1474 during thin Asian trade. While the pair logged 13-month highs last week, which was the culmination of a three-month rally phase, some momentum indicators are flagging, with the 14-day relative strength index, for instance, falling back despite the new highs…. Read more »