Category: Financial Markets

Financial markets news from external sources.

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 07, 2018

The DXY peaked at four-month highs of 92.97 early in the N.Y. session on Monday, before profit taking took the greenback a bit lower. There was no U.S. data to drive the markets on Monday, while London was out on holiday, leaving FX traders unwillling to push to hard. EUR-USD bottomed at trend lows of… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 07, 2018

The dollar has been trading perkily during a quiet, London-less European AM session, posting fresh intraday highs versus the euro and some other currencies, including the Australian and Canadian dollars, though has remained below the highs that were seen on Friday. EUR-USD has seen a low at 1.1921, which is just 11 pips short of… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 07, 2018

The dollar is at moderately firmer in early-week trading. EUR-USD has tipped back under 1.1950 after posting an intraday high at 1.1978 in Tokyo trade. swinging Friday’s four-month low back into scope. USD-JPY lifted back above 109.00, in the latest phase of a continued orbit of the 109.00 level after correcting from the 11-week high… Read more »

RBA Keeps Rates On Hold — Which Probably Where They'll Stay For Awhile

Earlier this week, the RBA maintained their current interest rate policy of 1.5%, their level since 2Q16.  There is nothing in the bank’s statement to imply a rate hike is forthcoming: growth is moderate; an unemployment rate over 5% indicates some degree of labor market slack remains while inflation shows no sign of meaningfully accelerating… Read more »

The EUs "Slowdown" is Overdone; Canada's Growth Is Very Real

            After years of disappointing economic results, the EU economy finally started to meaningfully grow at the end of 2016.  The pace increased through 2017, leading many analysts to argue the worst was finally over.  Recently, somewhat weaker economic releases have given some commentators pause regarding the strength of the EU economy.  This newly expressed… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: oil prices turn negative edition

April data started out with a positive jobs report as to both new jobs created and the un- and under-employment rates. Wage growth remained tepid but improved for nonsupervisory workers. Source: XE news feed Weekly Indicators: oil prices turn negative edition

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 04, 2018

The dollar initially fell following the softer than expected U.S. jobs report, though it appeared the market took advantage of weakness, and piled back into the greenback. The DXY topped at fresh 2018 highs of 92.89 before easing back to 92.53 as pre-weekend profit taking set in. EUR-USD made trend lows of 1.1911 from 1.1995… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Soft NFP May Send Greenback Into a Stormy Session

OVERVIEW Non-Farm Payroll increased by 164k below market expectations. Unemployment rate falls to a new 17-year low at 3.9% JPY continues to climb higher on safe-haven demand. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Soft NFP May Send Greenback Into a Stormy Session

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 04, 2018

The dollar managed a rebound from declines that were seen in the wake of Wednesday’s less-hawkish than expected Fed statement. Expectations for a strong April U.S. payrolls report today, coupled with lower levels, elicited fresh demand for the greenback. EUR-USD ebbed back into the mid 1.1900s and toward the four-month low that was seen on… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 04, 2018

The dollar has remained in a consolidation after pulling back from recent trend highs. EUR-USD has remained settled in the upper 1.1900s after posting a new four-month low at 1.1937 on Wednesday. Rebound gains above 1.2000 have so far proved fleeting. USD-JPY has settled to an orbit of the 109.00 level after correcting from the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Eurozone Inflation Cools Unexpectedly, Fed Remains Steady

OVERVIEW US Dollar remains firm after Fed signals a steady course for rate hikes. Euro remains steady despite CPI slowing.  GBP weak after service sector data. Turkish Lira falls to fresh record low.  HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Eurozone Inflation Cools Unexpectedly, Fed Remains Steady

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 03, 2018

The dollar retreated from Wednesday’s trend highs, leaving the DXY at afternoon lows of 92.51. The index topped yesterday at 92.83. Incoming U.S. data was generally USD supportive, though he return of trade concerns, and another risk off session resulted in some dollar profit taking. EUR-USD topped at 1.1990 in afternoon trade, while USD-JPY slipped… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 03, 2018

The dollar remained perky although off the trend highs posted yesterday against most of its main counterparts. The USD index (DXY) was showing a fractional 0.1% decline as of the early European PM session, at 92.44, settling off yesterday’s four-and-a-half-month peak at 92.83. EUR-USD posted a 1.2008 rebound high, but struggled to maintain gains above… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 03, 2018

The dollar has ebbed from trend highs after the Fed issued a less hawkish than expected statement following its widely anticipated decision to leave policy unchanged yesterday. EUR-USD has settled in the upper 1.1900s, up from its four-month low at 1.1937, and USD-JPY has settled near 109.60 after posting a fresh 11-week high at 110.03…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 02, 2018

The dollar had been on the rise ahead of the Fed, though abruptly turned lower following the FOMC announcement, where policy was left unchanged, as-expected. The statement noted the FOMC sees inflation close to goal, and sees further gradual rate hikes going forward. For the FX market, the statement was not overly hawkish, keeping a… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Hits New Highs for The Year Ahead of Fed Meeting

OVERVIEW US Dollar index at new 2018 highs. The Euro under pressure after GDP data confirms slower growth. GBP supported by rebound in construction activity. Swedish Krona falls after central bank comments.  HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Hits New Highs for The Year Ahead of Fed Meeting

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 02, 2018

The dollar retreated some after posting fresh highs against the yen, sterling and some other currencies. Firmer than expected UK construction PMI data gave Cable some added lift, driving the Cable above 1.3860, up on the four-month low that was seen just ahead of the London open at 1.3580. EUR-USD has settled near 1.2000 after… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 02, 2018

The dollar has remained in the ascendant, posting fresh trend highs against the yen and sterling, and remaining buoyant, near highs versus the euro and other currencies. USD-JPY edged out a fresh 11-week high at 109.92 in early Tokyo trading, gaining despite declines in EUR-JPY and other yen crosses. EUR-USD has remained heavy after posing… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – May 01, 2018

The DXY rallied to near highs if the year, topping at 92.55, as the dollar rallied broadly against major currencies. Incoming U.S. data disappointed, though the greenback advanced nonetheless. EUR-USD fell to 1.1982, as USD-JPY topped at 109.80. USD-CAD dipped initially on firmer Canada GDP figures, though later rallied as oil prices fell. Cable remained… Read more »

A change of seasons: May Day update

A couple of months ago I suggested that the relationship between stock prices and bond yields was likely undergoing a secular change. Source: XE news feed A change of seasons: May Day update

XE Market Analysis: North America – May 01, 2018

The dollar rallied to fresh trend highs versus the euro, yen, sterling and Australian dollar, among other currencies. This occurred in thin markets with much of Europe and key Asian centres having been closed for public holidays today. Expectations for strong U.S. jobs data on Friday have been maintaining a bid for dollars, while a… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – May 01, 2018

The dollar has held firm but in narrow ranges. China and Hong Kong have been closed for Labour Day holidays, and much of Europe will be out for May Day holidays today. AUD-USD eked out a fresh four-and-a-half-month low at 0.7525 after the RBA left policy no hold while highlighting low wage and low inflation,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 30, 2018

The DXY rose to trend highs of 91.92 in N.Y. on Monday, stopping just short of its 200-day moving avarage, which sits at 91.98. U.S. personal income was a touch shy of expectations, though consumption was in-line. EUR-USD bottomed at 1.2064, while USD-JPY pulled back from 109.45 highs, touching 109.09. USD-CAD bottomed at 1.2806 on… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Firm Supported by Inflation Data

OVERVIEW US Core PCE price index rises 1.9%, consumer spending increases 0.4%. GBP soft as banks revise forecasts for UK rate hikes. German inflation unexpectedly slows, supports ECB caution. Mexican economic growth accelerates 1.1% in the first three months of 2018. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Firm Supported by… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 30, 2018

The dollar majors have posted narrow ranges so far today in what has been thin holiday-affected trading conditions in Asia. The USD index (DXY) is at net unchanged levels at 91.55, below Friday’s near-four-month-high at 91.98. EUR-USD has made time in the lower 1.2100s. USD-JPY posted less than a 20 pip range, holding within 109.00… Read more »

Recent Numbers Put the BOE in a Bind

               After the Brexit vote, a number of commentators (myself included) argued that the UK economy would fall into a recession.  The reason for this conclusion is that recessions are usually caused by some type of economic shock that has broad negative ramifications for the economy at large.  The Brexit vote certainly qualified.   London had… Read more »

Recent Weakness May Give the ECB Pause to Raise Rates For Now

              EU economic news started turning more bullish at the end of 2016.  Markit Economic’s PMI surveys frist reflected the more posirive tone, which continued improving through 2017.  Industrial production growth – which stalled in 2016 – followed the PMIs higher in 2017.  A strengthening employment picture led to increased retail sales growth.  And The… Read more »

Expect the BOJ To Stay on the Sidelines For Now

           Before analyzing the Bank of Japan’s latest interest rate decision, let’s analyze the current condition of the Japanese economy by looking at it from the same perspective as the BOJ.  They often talk about “virtuous cycles,” which begins with consumer or business activity and ends with spending.                Consumer activity is employment.  Japan… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: more slight deterioration edition

March data was again all positive, including both new and existing home sales, the FHFA and Case-Shiller house price indexes, and durable goods orders. First quarter GDP rose, although at a lower rate than Q4 2017, and the most leading components of GDP were mixed. The employment cost index rose at the highest YoY rate… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 27, 2018

The DXY retreated from three-plus month highs of 91.98, pulling back to 91.58 lows on pre-weekend profit taking. The index had put together a string of eight consecutive higher daily highs before Friday’s pullback. The dollar perked up briefly following the slightly better than expected U.S. Q1 GDP outcome, though sellers quickly stepped in. EUR-USD… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 27, 2018

The dollar ramped higher, driving the USD index (DXY) to a 16-week high at 91.90 and EUR-USD to a 16-week low at 1.2064. This is the biggest weekly loss EUR-USD has seen since the week of November 13th-17th last year. Cable concurrently logged a six-week low, and AUD-USD a four-month low. USD-CHF is trading at… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 27, 2018

The dollar majors were sitting at near net unchanged levels heading into the London interbank open today. EUR-USD late yesterday traded below 1.2100 for the first time in early January, extending the latest phase of losses which were seen in the wake of the dovish-tilting guidance of ECB President Draghi yesterday, following the central bank’s… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 26, 2018

The DXY shot up to three-plus month highs of 91.61 highs in N.Y. on Thursday, as euro weakness was the major driver following an ECB press conference which was decidedly more cautious on the growth outlook than the policy statement suggested. EUR-USD fell from 1.2180 t o1.2198 lows. Incoming U.S. data was supportive of the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Euro Weakens as Mario Draghi Says ECB is Assessing Softer Data

OVERVIEW US government yield falls back below 3%. US durable goods orders rise, business spending on equipment falls.  Swedish central bank keeps rates on hold, postpones rate hike. BoC Governor says the economy is finally positive. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Euro Weakens as Mario Draghi Says ECB is Assessing Softer… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 26, 2018

The dollar was showing modest net declines on the day as of the early European PM session, giving back gains seen during the pre-London session in Asia, when the greenback posted fresh trend highs versus the euro and yen, among other currencies. The Swedish krone was a notable mover after the Riksbank pushed back the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 26, 2018

The dollar has dipped after posting fresh highs versus the euro and yen, among other currencies. EUR-USD posted an eight-week low at 1.2159 while USD-JPY rose of an eighth consecutive day, making an 11-week high at 109.46. The move reflected ongoing dollar strength, although the yen has been among the leaders of the underperforming currencies… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 25, 2018

The DXY posted three-plus month highs of 91.24 in N.Y. trade on Wednesday, largely driven by higher Treasury yields. There was no data to move the markets, though Wall Street was lower once again, despite mostly solid incoming earnings reports. EUR-USD touched trend lows of 1.2168, while USD-JPY topped at two-plus month highs of109.38. USD-CAD… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 25, 2018

The dollar remained buoyant, with the 10-year T-note yield having yesterday touched the 3.0% leve for the first time since early 2017. The narrow trade-weighted index (DXY) posted at new trend high of 91.09, a level not seen since the first week of January. EUR-USD drifted back under the 1.2200 level, although so far leaving… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 25, 2018

The dollar picked up from correction lows, remaining underpinned after concomitantly posting trend highs yesterday after the 10-year T-note finally touched the 3.0% level first time here since early 2017. The narrow trade-weighted index (DXY) recouped to near 91.0 and yesterday’s trend high at 91.07, a level last seen in the first week of January…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 24, 2018

The dollar had faded some from overnight highs at the N.Y. open on Tueday, spending much of the remainder of the session trending lower. The DXY topped at 91.07, a three-month high, during Asian hours, before touching 90.73 lows in N.Y. Wall Stree took a dive, despite generally strong earnings, with the tech sector pacing… Read more »

Housing: the Millennial tailwind buffeted by incresing interest rate and pricing headwinds

This morning’s new home sales report showed a continued positive trend in housing, but with some underlying deterioration. It remains buoyed by the demographic tailwind, but contrary interest rate and price headwinds are intensifying.    Source: XE news feed Housing: the Millennial tailwind buffeted by incresing interest rate and pricing headwinds

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 24, 2018

The dollar posted fresh highs versus most currencies before most pairings backpedalled to near net unchanged levels. EUR-USD posted a 10-week low at 1.2181 before a bout of broad dollar weakness in the London AM sessions lifted the pair above 1.2215. The low was seen after the release the April German Ifo business conditions index,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 24, 2018

The dollar posted fresh highs against the euro and yen, and many other currencies after a bout of demand in Asia, which extending a broad rally the greenback has been seeing against for over a week now. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) posted its highest level since the first week of January, at 91.07…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 23, 2018

The DXY peaked at 90.92 on N.Y. on Monday, with broad dollar strength seen on the eback of higher Treasury yields, decent incoming U.S. data, and the easing of trade and geopolitical tensions. The dollar index advanced to its best level since March 2. EUR-USD bottomed at 1.2208, a near two-month low, while USD-JPY topped… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 23, 2018

The dollar rallied during the London morning session, was showing a 0.4% gain on the euro, a 0.3% advance versus the yen and Swiss franc, and 0.4% gains versus both the Australian and New Zealand dollars, as of the late AM. The greenback has firmed versus the sterling and Canadian dollar, albeit by a relatively… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 23, 2018

The dollar has maintained a steady-to-firmer bias in early-week trading, making fresh highs versus the yen, although holding below respective Friday highs against the euro and other currencies. EUR-USD drifted moderately lower from Friday’s closing levels, making a 1.2265 low before steadying, leaving Friday’s 17-day low at 1.2229 unchallenged. USD-JPY edged out a fresh two-month… Read more »

Key Currency Pairs: the Pound/Dollar and the Canadian Dollar/Dollar

           Due to high inflationary pressures, currency traders had assumed that the Bank of England would be raising rates this year.  BOE governor Carney threw cold water on that assumption during an interview with the BBC: The governor of the Bank of England has said that an interest rate rise is “likely” this year, but… Read more »

Moderate Mixed Messages on the International Data Front

     This week, we had the standard economic “on one hand, on the other hand” situation.  The IMF released their latest World Economic Outlook which contained bullish data.  However, we’re seeing some weakness in the OECDs leading numbers along with the Nowcasts released by the Financial Times.      First, let’s look at the positive numbers… Read more »

Canada Appears Poised For Further Growth

          The Canadian economy was hit by the oil price declile in 2014 and experienced a mild recession.  But over the last two years, it was bounced back.  Now the Bank of Canada is faced with the possibility of higher growth and the accompanying inflation.  This week, the Bank of Canada maintained their current rate… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: manufacturing growth decelerates, mortgage applications accelerate addition

March data was all positive, including the Index of Leading Indicators, buoyed particularly by the interest rate spread and ISM new orders, and also included building permits and starts, retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilization.   Source: XE news feed Weekly Indicators: manufacturing growth decelerates, mortgage applications accelerate addition

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 20, 2018

The DXY posted two-week highs in N.Y. on Friday, taking its cue from firmer Treasury yields. EUR-USD fell to 1.2250 lows, down more than 100 points from overnight highs. USD-JPY topped at 107.86, a two-month top. USD-CAD printed two-week highs of 1.2749 following cooler Canada CPI and retail sales. Cable remained under pressure following BoE’s… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 20, 2018

The dollar is finishing the week on a firmer footing, posting gains versus the euro and yen, and being aided higher against the pound after BoE Governor Carney walked back hawkish guidance. EUR-USD dropped through recent range lows at 1.2299-1.2307 on route to posting an 11-day low at 1.2293. There didn’t appear to have been… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 20, 2018

The dollar has been trading firmer so far today, while weakness in the yen and sterling have remained themes. The dollar bloc currencies have also seen particular weakness, concomitantly with corrections in commodity prices and global stock markets. EUR-USD, meanwhile, has flat-lined in the mid 1.2300s, remaining comfortably off the three-week high posted on Tuesday… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 19, 2018

The dollar bounced in N.Y. trade on Thursday, taking the DXY to 89.91, a one-week high, and through its 20- and 50-day moving averages of 89.80, and 89.83, respectively. In-line jobless claims and leading indicators, along with a better Philly Fed outcome had little impact, though a late day cable sell-off following dovish Carney comments… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Mexican Peso Falls on Political Jitters

OVERVIEW FX market generally quiet with little economic data released. GBP falls after weak retail sales but recovers on M&A announcement. USD flat, Fed’s economic survey suggests economy still growing “moderately”. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Mexican Peso Falls on Political Jitters

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 19, 2018

The dollar has been trading near steady on net, while moderate yen weakness was a theme during the Tokyo session. The pound also came under some pressure following a miss in UK retail sales, and the Australian dollar lifted concomitantly with commodity prices out of post-Australian jobs data lows, subsequently posting a fresh trend high…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 19, 2018

The dollar has been trading near net steady so far today, while yen weakness remained a theme. EUR-USD has settled in the upper 1.2300s, holding below the three-week high seen earlier in the week at 1.2414. USD-JPY edged out a three-session high at 107.51, EUR-JPY a two-month high, just above 133.00, while AUD-JPY managed a… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 18, 2018

The dollar dipped in early trade, taking the DXY to 89.45 lows, from a pre-open high of 89.77. A modest USD short covering rally set in ahead of the London close, which lifted the index back to 89.63. There was no data to drive the market, and FX trade overall was subdues. EUR-USD ranged between… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Bank of Canada Keeps Rates on Hold

OVERVIEW Market sentiment remains positive on headlines that US officials met with North Korean leadership. Canadian Dollar falls after BoC Governor is cautious on rate outlook.  GBP slides after inflation cools.  EUR mixed, inflation revised down. Turkish Lira outperforming after the president announces the early election. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis:… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 18, 2018

EUR-USD traded softer, although rebounded sharply from two separate dips below the 1.2350 level. The pair is down from the three-week high posted yesterday at 1.2414. Yesterday’s sub-forecast German ZEW survey put a lid on euro buying as the report developing an economic slowdown theme in the Eurozone’s engine economy. USD-JPY lifted some 30 pips… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 18, 2018

Narrow ranges have mostly prevailed into the London interbank open, with most of the main dollar pairings holding well within their respective ranges from yesterday. This has been seen amid an ongoing recovery rally in global stock markets as trade and geopolitical concerns continued to abate. EUR-USD has held a narrow range in the upper… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 17, 2018

The dollar bounced modestly through the N.Y. morning session on Tuesday, taking its lead from a calmer geopolitical backdrop, better incoming U.S. data, and solid earnings reports. The DXY topped at 89.66, before later pulling back to 89.49 lows. EUR-USD bottomed at 1.2337 after opening near 1.2375, while USD-JPY topped at 107.21, later briefly dipping… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: UK Unemployment Lowest Since 1975

OVERVIEW USD steadies and gains versus European currencies. EUR weakens after ZEW survey. GBP retreats from post-Brexit highs versus Dollar after wage data disappoints. AUD slightly weaker after RBA minutes. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: UK Unemployment Lowest Since 1975

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 17, 2018

A dollar softening theme has prevailed , with EUR-USD ascending to three-week highs above 1.2400 and USD-JPY pushing to three-day lows below 107.00. AUD-USD has also turned higher after weakening in the wake of the release of the RBA’s minutes to its April policy meeting, which stated that there was no reason to hike rates… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 17, 2018

A dollar softening theme has been prevailing, with EUR-USD printing a three-week high just above 1.2380 and USD-JPY pushing to three-day lows below 107.00. AUD-USD has also turned higher after weakening in the wake of the release of the RBA’s minutes to its April policy meeting, which was deemed as showing board members as being… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 16, 2018

FX trade was relatively quiet in N.Y. on Monday, though the dollar overall was a bit softer, seeing the DXY bottom at 89.39 from opening highs of 89.61. INcoming data was mixed, with retail sales a touch better than consensus, and the Empite State index missing the mark. EUR-USD ranged between 1.2359 and 1.2395, while… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Sterling Marches On

OVERVIEW US Dollar dips as hopes for the Syria strikes do not escalate. Sterling heading towards post-Brexit vote highs. Loonie strengthens on last-minute oil pipeline attempt. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Sterling Marches On

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 16, 2018

The dollar traded moderate softer. EUR-USD clocked a two-session high of 1.2373 from the 1.2330-35 area while the narrow USD trade-weighted index (DXY) ebbed by 0.25%. AUD-USD also traded firmer, and USD-CAD softer. Cable traded above 1.4300 for the first time since January. Elsewhere, the Russian rouble came back under the cosh following the weekend… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 16, 2018

Moderate yen outperformance has been a feature in otherwise narrow-ranging early-week trading. EUR-USD held in the lower 1.2300s, remaining within Friday’s range. USD-JPY, meanwhile, dipped below Friday’s low at 107.25 on route to a 107.13 low, which marks a correction in an upside trend that’s been in development for two weeks now, from mid 104.00… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: International Potpouri

             This was a modest week of international news.              Canadian news was light this week, with building permits being the main release.  Permits dropped 2.6%, but remain in the 775-850 range, where they’ve been for the last 10 months:   The Bank of Canada recently imposed increased lending restrictions, where were summarized… Read more »

And Overview of the EU

           Peter Praet gave his assessment of the EU region in a speech on April 9.    Let’s begin with his assessment of inflation: Source: XE news feed And Overview of the EU

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 13, 2018

The DXY advanced modestly ahead of the N.Y. open on Friday, though spent much of the remainder of the session sideways to slightly lower. The index topped at 89.88, before falling off to 88.72 in light afternoon trade. A softer U. of Michigan sentiment outcome weighed some on the dollar, though activity overall was thin…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 13, 2018

The yen weakened, while sterling and the Australian dollar outperformed and the dollar trade mixed. The other commodity currencies also posted moderate gains. AUD-JPY was showing the biggest gain, as of the late London morning, with the cross showing a gain of 0.7%, logging a one-month peak at 83.99. AUD-JPY is widely view as a… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 13, 2018

The yen weakened moderately while most of the other main currencies posted narrow ranges in pre-London trading in Asian markets. USD-JPY lifted to a fresh six-week high of 107.58, while EUR-JPY lifted toward trend highs and AUD-JPY clocked a one-month high at 83.69. A rebound in global markets aided the yen lower as more of… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 12, 2018

The DXY moved to three-session highs in N.Y. on Thursday, topping at 89.95 at mid-morning. Mostly in-line jobless claim and import price data provided some early support, though the dollar later faded some, as CNBC reported the U.S. is prepared to strike 8 targets in Syria, though UN Ambassador Haley coolly said they’re “methodically” exploring… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Syria Worries Ease, Euro Weakens

OVERVIEW Euro weakens after dovish ECB minutes. Japanese Yen weakens on Trump’s tweet on the timing and/or possibility of attacking Syria.  Swedish Krona slips after CPI miss. GBP strong due to seasonal flows, house price survey remains weak. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Syria Worries Ease, Euro Weakens

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 12, 2018

The dollar found some bids following an early-morning tweet shower from Trump, which, among other things, said that an attack on Syria had not yet been decided and suggested that he doesn’t have any plans to sack special council Mueller. USD-JPY lifting about 15 pips from pre-tweet shower levels, enough for the pair to post… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 12, 2018

The dollar majors have once again plied narrow ranges, EUR-USD in the mid-to-upper 1.2300s after a four-day run higher capped out yesterday at 1.2397, and USD-JPY in the upper 106.0s. The lack of directional impulse has been seen in most other currency pairings, and Asian stock markets. The Nikkei 225 closed with a fractional 0.12%… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 11, 2018

The greenback was fairly steady through the N.Y. session on Wednesday, with narrow ranges seen in major pairings. U.S. CPI was on the cool side, which weighed slightly. The dollar perked up after the FOMC minutes later in the session, which were a tad on the hawkish side. EUR-USD bottomed at session lows of 1.2347,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Dollar Weakens as Market Worries Switch to Syria

OVERVIEW Markets wary of US air strikes against Syria following Trump’s tweets. EUR edging higher in quiet trade.  GBP recovers after weaker than expected data.  JPY firmer as risk appetite remains mildly negative. RUB slide continues. HIGHLIGHT US consumer price inflation fell for the first time in 10 months in March, but underlying inflation continued… Read more »

Further slow deterioration in real money supply, mortgage applications

Let me start by emphasizing that neither of the two indicators I am chiefly discussing in this post have actually turned negative on any sustained basis.  But if there has been a theme in my posts in the last 6 to 12 months, it has been the slow decline of the overall positive readings among… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 11, 2018

The dollar has posted modest losses versus its major counterparts, continuing a theme seen since last Friday’s U.S. jobs report miss, though the greenback managed moderate gains against the dollar bloc currencies, which fared less well as investor risk appetite flagged in the face of the geopolitical risks. USD-JPY drifted under 107.00 after peaking yesterday… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 11, 2018

The dollar has posted modest losses versus its major counterparts, which continues a theme seen since last Friday’s big U.S. jobs report miss. USD-JPY drifted moderately lower, back toward 107.00 after peaking yesterday at 107.39, which left last week’s six-week high at 107.49 untested. Yen crosses also saw a similar price action, with the yen… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 10, 2018

The dollar index fell early on, led by EUR-USD’s rally, bottoming at 89.55, a two-week low, before later recovering to 89.80. Warmer PPI data supported the buck to a degree, following its early decline. EUR-USD ranged between 1.2379 and 1.2325, settling into 1.2350 at the close. USD-JPY meanwhile, topped at 107.40, finding support from the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: There Is No Instance of a Nation Benefiting from Prolonged “Trade” Wars: Sun Tzu’s “Art of War"

OVERVIEW Global stock markets are in the green as trade disputes are quashed by Chinese President. US PP advances 0.3% in March, fuelling expectations that the economy is ripe for more than three rate hikes. Risk-on trades driving commodity currency higher against the USD. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: There Is… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 10, 2018

The yen underperformed for a second day, while the dollar bloc currencies outperformed after China’s President Xi struck a conciliatory tone, pledging a more open economy and lower tariffs for automobile imports, at his keynote speech before the Boao Forum today. This aided stock markets higher in Asia and Europe, while S&P 500 futures were… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Apr 10, 2018

Yen weakness has been the main show in town, with the biggest mover having been the global stock market correlating AUD-JPY cross, which is showing a 0.9% gain as the London interbank market takes to its collective desk. USD-JPY is showing a 0.4% advance, earlier posting a two-session high at 107.24. Chinese President Xi’s keynote… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 09, 2018

The dollar weakened overall into the N.Y. open on Monday, seeing the DXY slip to a low of 89.82 in afternoon trade. The FX market was largely quiet however, with narrow trading ranges seen in the major dollar pairings. Wall Street surged higher on eased trade tensions, as Trump economic advisor Kudlow sounded optimistic. Traders… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Russian Rouble Slumps as US Unveils Sanctions

OVERVIEW US Dollar softer as trade tensions remain front and center. German exports plunge as global trade concerns rise. British Pound is supported by house price data and rate hike bets. Canadian Dollar firms on NAFTA optimism. Turkish Lira falls to fresh record lows.   HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Russian Rouble… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Apr 09, 2018

The dollar has been trading neutrally versus its main counterparts. EUR-USD has been plying a narrow path around the 1.2270 mark, consolidating Friday’s post-U.S. jobs report gains, which lifted the pair from the low 1.2200s. USD-JPY has been steady, holding near 107.00. Risk sentiment improved as the Asia session progressed, despite the ratchetting-up in geopolitical… Read more »

A Review of EUR/USD; AUD/JPY; USD/CAD

EUR/USD             First a bit of history:   Source: XE news feed A Review of EUR/USD; AUD/JPY; USD/CAD

US Economy Still in Solid Shape

            ISM released their latest manufacturing and non-manufacturing reports this week.  The manufacturing number was down 1.5 but is still a very heathy 59.3.  New orders were also off, but they are also very strong (61.9).  However, the real story in this report were the anecdotal comments, which contained negative information about the tariffs: … Read more »

Powell and Bullard Both See Additional Rate Hikes

            This week, there were two key speeches by Federal Reserve governors.  The most important was from new Fed President Jerome Powell.  I have previously described him as a technocrat; his latest speech further solidifies that description.  Like most Fed governors, he believes the labor market is the single-best indicator of the economy’s health.  He… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: interest rates rise again edition

March data started out with a weakly positive jobs gain and a flat unemployment rate. Wages improved overall, but did not gain YoY for non-managerial workers. Motor vehicle sales improved. Both ISM manufacturing and services indexes decelerated but remained strongly positive. Source: XE news feed Weekly Indicators: interest rates rise again edition