Category: Financial Markets

Financial markets news from external sources.

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 22, 2018

The dollar came off the boil during the London AM session after posting fresh gains in Asia. USD-JPY was an exception, having dipped quite sharply at the Tokyo fixing (on netted out corporate demand for yen), posting a low at 107.15, before recouping. EUR-USD recouped toward 1.2300. A miss in the February German Ifo business… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 22, 2018

The dollar has continued to mostly trade firmer, this time amid a backdrop of fresh equity market declines on Wall Street and in Asia (which the exception of Chinese markets, which have been playing catch-up following the prolonged Lunar New Year break). This followed minutes of the FOMC meeting, where bullets about upside risk to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 21, 2018

The dollar edged higher through the morning session in N.Y. on Wednesday, taking the DXY to six-session highs of 89.99. The greenback later moved lower on the FOMC minutes, as the Fed said a gradual approach to tightening remained appropriate, and as it sees few signs of broad wage growth increases (which got markets in… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Sterling Under Pressure as UK Jobless Rate Rises

OVERVIEW GBP is trading at a disadvantage due to calls for gaining full regulatory autonomy after Brexit and the jobless rate rises. The Canadian Dollar continues to weaken as oil prices drop and the US Dollar resurges. The Euro is trading at a disadvantage against the US Dollar as the Purchasing Managers Indexes for both the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 21, 2018

The dollar continued to hold firm. EUR-USD extended lower for a fourth consecutive session, logging a four-session low of 1.2307, which extends the correction from the 38-month high seen on Friday at 1.2556. The day’s low was seen in the wake of the release of preliminary Eurozone February PMI survey data, which missed expectations and… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 21, 2018

The dollar has remained buoyant, led by gains in USD-JPY, whicih lifted for a fourth straight session in logging a four-session high of 107.90, extending the rebound from the 15-month low seen last Thursday at 105.54. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses are also firmer, though by a lesser magnitude than USD-JPY, as a broader bid… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Adds to Gains

OVERVIEW USD trading broadly higher. GBP higher on a report that the EU parliament will allow ‘privileged’ access to the single market. CAD weaker after dropping in wholesale trade. EUR softer after a drop in German ZEW survey. AUD flat after RBA minutes signal rates to remain on hold. SEK falls sharply after inflation miss…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 20, 2018

The dollar was fairly steady in N.Y. trade on Tuesday, leaving the DXY over its 20-day moving average of 89.43 through the day. There was no U.S. data to drive the FX market, though trend high Treasury yields helped the greenback generally. EUR-USD bottomed at 1.2320 before edging higher, while USD-JPY was steady, maintaining altitude… Read more »

How much must interest rates spike for the economy to roll over?

Interest rates are the most potent background long leading indicators. Last week I wrote that I did not see them as having risen enough at this time to cause a recession, and noted that I thought they had to rise to at least about 3.25%, and for a sufficient period of time.   Source:… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 20, 2018

The dollar has been in rebound mode after making fresh major-trend lows on Friday, gaining yesterday in the absence of North American and a number of major Asian markets, and extending further upward today. The gain was concomitant with market narratives talking about the rise in 2-year Treasury yields to near 10-year highs (which has… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 20, 2018

The dollar continued to hold firm, extending the same theme for a second day. This came with 2-year U.S. Treasury yields rising to a near 10-year high in Asia today, and with stock market sentiment having soured somewhat following a week-long rebound. The USD index (DXY) posted a four-session high of 89.44, extending the rebound… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 19, 2018

The dollar traded generally firmer today in low volumes with a number of Asian nations enjoying public holidays today, including China, Hong Kong and Taiwan. North American markets will also be absent today. EUR-USD logging a two-session low of 1.2392, and USD-JPY recouped above 106.60, extending a rebound from Friday’s 15-month low at 105.52. The… Read more »

US Economic Week in Review: Some Disappointing Coincidental Numbers

            This was a mixed week for U.S. economic data.  One leading indicator – the 4-week moving average of unemployment claims – was positive.  But while the headline number for building permits was very strong (+7.4%), a huge jump in multi-unit structures (5+ unit permits rose 25%) were responsible for… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: An Overblown Inflation Fear

          At this point, I almost feel unqualified to talk about inflation and inflationary pressures in the economy.  I have, after all, spent the better part of the last 4-5 years discussing the possibility of deflation or, more specifically, weak pricing pressures.  I also have to admit to a fair amount… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: The Global Growth Wave Continues

            The overall trend of major international news continues to trend in a positive direction.  Japan is on solid growth footing while EU news is well into its second year of an overall bullish tone.  Australia’s employment situation continues to improve.  The only weak spot is the UK, where retail sales… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: payroll tax withholding falls off a cliff edition

January data this week included very positive housing permits and starts, as well as very positive consumer confidence as measured by the U. of Michigan. Industrial production and capacity utilization were negative, as were retail sales. Consumer prices increased a significant +0.5%, and producer prices increased significantly as well.  Source: XE news feed Weekly… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 16, 2018

The dollar bounced modestly to end the week in N.Y. on Friday, with the move largely attributed to short covering into what will be a long U.S. weekend. The DXY advanced from three-plus year lows of 88.26 seen overnight, topping at 89.04 following strong housing starts data, and firmer import prices. EUR-USD opened over 1.2460,… Read more »

Real retail sales in depth: positive for 2018

January retail sales were reported on Wednesday.  This is a good time for me to update my look at real retail sales, which I find to be one of the most useful metrics to gauge the economy in several ways.   Source: XE news feed Real retail sales in depth: positive for 2018

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 16, 2018

The dollar has lifted out of new lows were seen in Tokyo. The USD index (DXY) is now showing a fractional 0.1% gain after showing a 0.3% decline at the lows. The index left a 37-month low at 88.26, and is presently trading at 88.70. EUR-USD tipped nearly 80 pips from the the 38-month high… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 16, 2018

Another day, another decline in the dollar, which logged a new 38-month low versus the euro, at 1.2554, and a 15-month low against the yen, at 105.54. The USD index (DXY) is down by 0.3%, 88.37, earlier clocking a 37-month low at 88.33. The greenback has also seen fresh lows against most newly developed and… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 15, 2018

The dollar was mostly steady through the N.Y. session on Thursday, with the dollar initially supported by warmer PPI data. Softer industrial production later weighed slightly. The DXY traded a relatively narrow range on either side of 88.80. EUR-USD ranged between 1.2505 and 1.2458, while USD-JPY recovered from 106.20 lows, to peak at 106.85. USD-CAD… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Slides as Risk Appetite Returns

OVERVIEW USD under broad-based pressure despite 10-year treasury yields rising to highest in 4 years. US industrial production falls unexpectedly in January. Japanese Yen rises to multi-year high, BoJ board member Aso plays down intervention talk. French unemployment falls to its lowest since 2009. Canadian home sales drop as new mortgage rules kick in.  Oil… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 15, 2018

The dollar recouped some lost ground after posted fresh losses in Asia and in the early European AM session. The USD index (DXY) was off its lows but showing a 0.3% decline as of the early London PM session. EUR-USD settled back toward the mid 1.24s after logging a two-week high of 1.2510, and USD-JPY… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 15, 2018

The dollar has declined for a fourth-straight session versus the euro and other currencies. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) is presently at a two-week low of 88.80, showing a 0.3% decline on the day and now racking up a 1.8% loss on the week so far. EUR-USD lifted to a two-week peak of 1.2487,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Faster US Inflation Supports Rate Hike Concerns

OVERVIEW US CPI above forecast in January as yields rise. USD rises on inflation data but then fell on Russia memo concerns. SA Rand rises as ANC put pressure on President Zuma. Japan’s economy grew 0.1% in Q4, posting it as the longest continuous expansion since the 1980s.  Eurozone Q4 GDP growth in line with… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 14, 2018

Hot U.S. CPI data, and a surge in Treasury yields dod little to help the dollar on N.Y. on Wednesday. While the greenback popped briefly after the data, sellers quicjly stepped in, taking the DXY to eight session lows of 89.07. The U.S. deficit outlook may be behind some of the USD’s struggles this week,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 14, 2018

The dollar rebounded during the London AM session after declining in Asia. Position squaring was reported with market participants eyeing the release of the U.S. CPI data for January, which may have a potentially large bearing on Fed tightening expectations. EUR-USD ascended to a five-day high of 1.2392 before ebbing back toward the mid 1.23s…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 14, 2018

The dollar continued to deflate, led by ongoing and relatively hefty decline in USD-JPY, which has declined for a fifth straight session and is heading into the London AM session with a 0.5% loss on the day so far. The yen’s outperformance also continued to weigh on yen crosses, which many are taking as portending… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 13, 2018

The DXY was marginally lower in N.Y. trade on Tuesday, dipping from 89.84 opening highs to 89.61, before heading back to 89.75. Wall Street was soggy through the morning session, though managed a moderate afternoon rally to close higher. Yields were little changed ahead of the key CPI report on Wednesday. EUR-US opened near 1.2330,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Japanese Yen Hits Five-Month Highs as Markets Remain Nervous

OVERVIEW GBP rises after higher UK inflation data.  Yen rises over 1%, prompting comments from the government minister. South Africa’s President Zuma is recalled by his ANC party and will respond by tomorrow. Global stocks are under pressure as risk aversion is driving FX gains for CHF and JPY. Oil prices are at two-month lows… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 13, 2018

USD-JPY led broader dollar declines today, which was further aided by a rally in Cable following above-forecast CPI data out of the UK. USD-JPY dove over 1%, more than double the decline the dollar has seen so far versus the euro and other currencies today, in making a five-month low of 107.41. This has swung… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 13, 2018

The dollar traded mostly lower as the global equity rebound extended in Asia after Wall Street yesterday completed its biggest two-day rebound in just over two years. The U.S. currency has been correlating inversely with global stock market direction of late on the causation that risk-on phases have seen investors divest of dollars and dollar… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 12, 2018

The dollar lost some ground overall in N.Y. trade on Monday, leaving the DXY at lows of 90.19, down from early highs at 90.43. The unwinding of safe-haven dollar buying seen amid the equity meltdown last week came undone to a degree. EUR-USD topped at 1.2290 from opening lows of 1.2235. USD-JPY remained above 108.50,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Slow Start to the Week in Currency Markets

OVERVIEW US Dollar claws back lost ground on stronger equity markets and risk sentiment shift. The Pound lost ground on the transition of uncertainty. South African Rand spikes higher on rumors that the President has agreed to step down. HIGHLIGHT There is no highlight for today’s market analysis.  Source: XE news feed XE Market… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 12, 2018

The dollar mostly recovered moderate losses seen in Asia, where conditions were thin today in the absence of Tokyo markets. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) is presently down 0.2% at 90.24, up from the day’s low at 90.08, which is a two-session low. EUR-USD backed off after logging a high of 1.2297, with the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 12, 2018

The dollar has started the week on a softer tack amid an improved risk appetite sentiment and firmer stock markets. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) is down 0.3%, near the day’s low at 90.08, which is a two-session low. EUR-USD has lifted to the upper 1.22s, logging a peak at 1.2297 after opening in… Read more »

US Economic Week in Review: The Manufacturing and Service Sector Economies Are Doing Well

            Over the last two weeks, the Institute of Supply Management has released their latest purchasing managers index of the manufacturing and service sector.  Both were positive, showing an underlying economic strength that belies the recent market carnage.  In today’s column, I’ll organize the related economic data around these reports… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: Yields Are Rising

We’ve seen a lot of upward movement in the yield curve this year, especially in the long-end: Source: XE news feed US Bond Market Week in Review: Yields Are Rising

Weekly Indicators: forecast positive despite stock market gyrations edition

There was no January data this week. Wholesale inventories rose in December, but sales rose even more, driving the inventory to sales ratio down, also a positive. The JOLTS report for December was also positive. Source: XE news feed Weekly Indicators: forecast positive despite stock market gyrations edition

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 09, 2018

The dollar firmed up some overall in N.Y. trade on Friday, support generally by safe-haven flows, the result of another Wall Street selloff. The DXY climbed to 90.56 highs from opening levels near 90.20. EUR-USD bottomed at 1.2206 from 1.2279 highs before bouncing to 1.2235, while USD-JPY remained correlated to equities, hitting 108.05, five-month lows…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 09, 2018

The dollar traded steady-to-firmer today. EUR-USD drifted back under 1.2250 after a rebound capped out at 1.2287, shy of yesterday’s 1.2295 high to maintain the run of lower highs that’s been seen since the release of the January U.S. jobs report last Friday, which catalysed market expectations for the Fed to recommit to tightening monetary… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 09, 2018

The dollar has been trading mixed, losing ground to the euro, sterling, among other currencies, while gaining on the yen and Australian dollar . USD-JPY clocked a four-day low of 108.49 in the early Tokyo session before rebounding above 109.0, dropping amid a phase of yen buying after the Dow clocked a 4%-plus closing loss… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: British Pound Rallies as BoE Signals More Rate Hikes

OVERVIEW US congressional leaders reach a budget deal that adds to the deficit. GBP higher after Bank of England meeting. The Euro is softer after ECB comments on inflation and stimulus. German trade surplus shrunk for the first time in 8 years in 2017. Stock markets back in the red mark as global interest rates… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 08, 2018

The DXY settled near mid-range in N.Y. on Thursday, bottoming at 90.03, and peaking at 90.42. Wall Street’s plunge resulted in some save-haven USD buying, with the risk-sensitive yen being an exception. USD-JPY fell to 108.59 lows from 10975 early in the session. EUR-USD ranged between 1.2213 and 1.2295. USD-CAD printed 2018 highs of 1.2615… Read more »

Senior Loan Officer Survey confirms looser credit conditions

A few days ago the Fed put out its Senior Loan Officer Survey.  This is a long leading indicator for the economy, as it generally takes a year or two for a loosening or tightening of credit, which is what it measures, to filter through into the wider economy.   Source: XE news feed … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 08, 2018

The dollar has extended gains in London AM trading. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) was showing a net gain of 0.3%, as of the late London AM session , at 90.54, which is 3 cents off the day’s high, itself the loftiest level seen since January 24. EUR-USD logged a 16-day low at 1.2225. … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 08, 2018

The dollar has traded mixed today, gaining moderately versus the euro, sterling, Australian dollar, among other currencies, but holding steady versus the Canadian dollar while gaining for a third straight day versus the yen. The Japanese currency has been coming under pressure as market participants trim safe haven trades as global markets find a toehold,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 07, 2018

The dollar rallied in N.Y. trade on Wednesday, taking the DXY to better than two-week highs of 90.40. EUR-USD fell from 1.2350 highs at the open, to 1.2245. USD-JPY meanwhile, rallied from 109.13 to 109.67, as USD-CAD printed one-month highs of 1.2577 on the back of oil price weakness. Cable found support under 1.3850.[EUR, USD] … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Firming, Stock Markets Recover

OVERVIEW US Senate reportedly agrees on a 2-year government funding deal.  Leaked document shows EU could restrict UK market access during the transition. German parties close to forming a coalition government. German industrial output fell 0.6% in December after surging 3.1% in November. UK house prices fell unexpectedly in January. European stock markets are up… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 07, 2018

The dollar traded mostly firmer as U.S. equity future declines, a shaky finish across Asian bourses and a tumble from intraday highs by the main European stock indexes suggest the risk-off phase may not be over yet. EUR-USD fell to a low of 1.2337, swinging yesterday’s pre-Wall Street rebound low at 1.2313 back into scope…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 07, 2018

The dollar traded mixed versus its major peers and developing world currencies, losing ground to the yen, euro, and sterling, among others, while gaining versus the Australian dollar and some other currencies, including the New Zealand dollar after a short-lived rally the antipodean currency in the wake of an above-forecast Q4 employment report. Source:… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 06, 2018

The dollar started the session on a firmer footing, as it appeared Wall Street would melt down again at the open, which it did. Safe-haven dollar buying was noted before the opening bell, though after plunging initially, stocks turned-tail higher, resulting in dollar selling. USD-JPY was somewhat of an outlier, as it largely maintained its… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 06, 2018

The dollar has held firm, and the yen firmer amid a persisting global risk aversion theme. Japan’s Nikkei closed with a 4.8% loss, and was showing intraday losses of over 6% at the lows, while the Shanghai Composite and Australia’s ASX 200 racked up losses of over 3%, and the main European indexes declines of… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 06, 2018

The dollar has held firm, and the yen firmer amid a persisting global risk aversion theme. Japan’s Nikkei closed with a 4.8% loss, and was showing intraday losses of over 6% at the lows, while the Shanghai Composite and Australia’s ASX 200 racked up losses of over 3%. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) logged… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Sterling Struggles at the Start of the Week

OVERVIEW US Dollar consolidates from Friday’s gains. Theresa May says no to customs union post-Brexit. HIGHLIGHT The US Dollar has consolidated its gains from Friday on the back of a stronger than expected employment number last month. The stock markets continued their move lower while bond yields rose as markets start to believe another rate… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 05, 2018

The dollar was mixed in relatively light trade in N.Y. on Monday, posting modest gains against the CAD and GBP, while ending a bit higher versus the euro, and down against the yen. The services ISM bear expectations and gave the greenback a small boost, though overall FX trade remained nervous given the backdrop of… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 05, 2018

The dollar mostly consolidated at higher levels versus those seen ahead of the U.S. jobs report on Friday, though USD-JPY was an exception, with the pair slipping to the 109.75-85 area as the yen picked up safe haven bids amid a backdrop of coursing risk aversion in global stock markets as investors factor in rising… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 05, 2018

The dollar has been consolidating gains seen on Friday in the wake of the above-forecast U.S. jobs report, which fired up Fed tightening expectations with a strong wage increase component. EUR-USD has been settled around 1.2450, above Friday’s post-data low at 1.2409 but holding some 40 pips below levels that were prevailing ahead of the… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: The Yellen Era Ends With a Bang

            This week was the end of the Yellen era.  She was one of the most accomplished economists to rise to the top the Fed and presided over a period of “moderate” adjustment to monetary policy.  We now enter the Powell era, which, by all accounts, will be a continuation… Read more »

US Economic Week in Review: Consumer Spending is Very Strong

            This week, the economic news centered on the US consumer’s spending habits.  PCEs increased strongly, which is corroborated by recent retail sales figures.  Spending on durable goods was remarkably resilient, which was confirmed by this week’s auto sales numbers.  Finally, the employment situation is strong.  The 4-week moving average… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: stocks and bonds take center stage edition

January data started out with a strong headline jobs number, and a much touted big increase in average wages for all workers..  But the unemployment rate stalled, and underemployment actually increased slightly.  Meanwhile, workers who aren’t in management didn’t see that big increase in wages at all, as that YoY metric made no headway.  … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 02, 2018

The dollar rallied sharply on the back of the solid jobs report, and the jump in hourly earnings. Treasury yields soared to trend highs, after the jobs numbers, and the rebound in factory order and Michigan sentiment. Wall Street was not happy with the yield bounce, as stocks were hammered lower. The release of the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Dollar Strengthens as Wage Growth Accelerates

OVERVIEW UK construction activity almost stalls in January. US consumer sentiment rises in January. Global equity markets are down as interest rates rise. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are down 20%. HIGHLIGHT The US Dollar is higher against all its major counterparts after the US employment report showed another solid month of job creation last month,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 02, 2018

The dollar has been directionally mixed since the FOMC earlier this week, gaining mostly notably versus the yen, and the Australian dollar, but losing ground to the main European currencies, including the euro, sterling and Swiss franc. The dollar has also been somewhat mixed against developing-world currencies. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) has managed… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 01, 2018

The dollar was dented by a weak productivity print, though did not recover in the aftermath of a good manufacturing ISM and solid construction spending. EUR-USD bottomed at 1.2343, before rallying to 1.2498 highs. USD-JPY trade to 109.24 lows, though found some support as Wall Street recovered. USD-CAD dipped to 1.2268 on firmer oil prices… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 01, 2018

The yen and Australian dollar came under pressure, while the dollar traded steady-to-softer versus most other currencies. USD-JPY has forayed to a one-week high of 109.75, extending the recovery from last week’s four-month low at 108.28. Yen crosses also gain, with EUR-JPY, for instance, up by 0.7% in the early London PM session. The rekindling… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 01, 2018

The has dollar has traded firmer in the wake of yesterday’s FOMC announcement, which brought the expected no-change decision in policy settings but was accompanied by upgrades in the Fed’s growth and inflation projections. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) is up 0.6% from four-session yesterday’s low at 88.78, logging a high of 89.31. EUR-USD… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 31, 2018

Trade was quiet ahead of the FOMC, though the dollar did perk up some on pre-Fed short covering, helped by a stronger than expected ADP jobs report. The dollar chopped around inside a narrow range after the FOMC announcement, before steadying unchanged to a bit higher after the dust had settled. Rates were left unchanged,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Dollar on Course for Biggest Monthly Loss in 2 Years

OVERVIEW GBP weakens as the EU says no to special financial services deal. EUR supported by stronger core inflation data. ADP reports 234k jobs were added in the private sector last month. UK consumer confidence rises unexpectedly, outlook still soft. AUD slips after inflation weaker than forecast. BoJ signals no immediate end to stimulus. HIGHLIGHT … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 31, 2018

The dollar rebounded during the London AM session after coming under pressure during in Asia, with the looming Fed announcement serving to inspire position trimming, quelling trend following. The USD index (DXY) recovered to 88.98 after logging a three-session low at 88.82. The index was still showing a net 0.3% decline on the day. EUR-USD… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 31, 2018

The dollar has been trading with a heavy bias amid a backdrop of mostly firming stock markets in Asia, though has remained well off recent trend lows. EUR-USD logged a three-session high at 1.2450, and USD-JPY ebbed to an intraday low of 108.62 after peaking at 109.09 in the Tokyo session. Dovish remarks came from… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 30, 2018

After opening under some pressure, the greenback made a bit of a comeback later in the session, rising against the yen and dollar after Bloomberg reported further comments from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin on the dollar. In congressional testimony, Mnuchin reportedly said he was not trying to jawbone the dollar lower, reiterating his CNBC comments from… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: EU GDP Keeping Up with US Growth Levels

OVERVIEW US consumer confidence improves in January. The British economy is performing better than expected. ECB’s caution warranted as German inflation remains lackluster. HIGHLIGHT Q4 GDP from the EU was in line with expectations at 0.6%, allowing year-over-year growth to reach 2.7%, demonstrating that the recent positive momentum in the EU economy is allowing them… Read more »

Second half 2018 forecast: still positive

As promised, once the GDP report came out, I can now give the second part of my 2018 forecast.  To forecast Q1 and Q2, I employ the the K.I.S.S. method of following the Index of Leading Indicators plus several other short term data points. Source: XE news feed Second half 2018 forecast: still positive

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 30, 2018

The dollar has come back under pressure, and is presently vying with the Australian dollar for the biggest loser on the day spot. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) is presently showing a loss of 0.2%, having earlier been showing a 0.3% gain on the day, and a 0.7% gain from yesterday’s low. EUR-USD has… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 30, 2018

The dollar has continued to hold steady-to-firmer as markets anticipate a hawkish tweak in the Fed’s policy guidance at tomorrow’s concluding of the FOMC meeting, which starts later today. This sentiment has spilled into global equity markets, souring risk appetite in a richly valued asset environment. Most commodity markets are similarly down for a second… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 29, 2018

The dollar managed to gain some ground in N.Y. on Monday, following sharp losses seen last week. The DXY recovered to 89.61 after printing three-plus year lows of 88.44 on Friday. The market appears to be preparing for a more hawkish FOMC statement on Wednesday, which has prompted a round of dollar short covering. EUR-USD… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Recovers on Rising Interest Rates

OVERVIEW U.S. consumer spending rises more than forecast. British Pound weakens on domestic political risk. ECB’s Praet signals support for continuing stimulus as CPI still soft. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Recovers on Rising Interest Rates

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 29, 2018

The dollar has found a toehold, either holding steady or posting gains versus its main peers. EUR-USD has been plying a narrow range in the lower 1.2400s, off from last Thursday’s 37-month high at 1.2537. USD-JPY, after last week posting a four-month low at 108.28, has been oscillating with 108.51 and 109.05 so far today…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 29, 2018

The dollar has opened the week on a consolidative footing after tumbling to fresh trend lows last week. EUR-USD has been plying a narrow range in the lower 1.2400s, off from last Thursday’s 37-month high at 1.2537. USD-JPY, after last week posting a four-month low at 108.28, has been oscillating with 108.51 and 108.99 so… Read more »

US Economic Week in Review: The US Economy Is Looking Good

            The U.S. is currently hitting on all cylinders.  Friday’s GDP report showed consistently modest growth.  The Conference Board’s leading indicators point towards continued expansion, as do 1-unit building permits and the 4-week moving average of initial unemployment claims.  All of the coincidental numbers are also rising.  While housing is… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: The Bond Markets Are in Great Shape

                     What part of the curve is the primary culprit in a yield curve contraction?   History shows it’s usually the short-end: Source: XE news feed US Bond Market Week in Review: The Bond Markets Are in Great Shape

International Economic Week in Review: Big Week For Central Banks

            Since the beginning of the year, all three major global trading groups (the IMF, the World Bank and the OCED) have observed that the global economy is in its best shape since.  Not to be outdone, the NY Times recently made the same observation in a piece titled, “It’s… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: what's going on with rail and steel? edition

The most noted data this week was that in the rear view mirror, Q4 GDP continued to increase at a rate approaching 3% annualized in the initial estimate. Capex and residential investment increased nicely, while inventories slackened. Source: XE news feed Weekly Indicators: what’s going on with rail and steel? edition

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 26, 2018

The dollar was dented briefly by the early mix of data, where Q4 GDP came in a bit under expectations. From there, U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin clarified his “weak dollar” comments from earlier in the week, which mostly put a floor under the greenback. EUR-USD topped at 1.2457 early, later easing to 1.2408 lows. USD-JPY… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Dollar Volatility Continues Comments

OVERVIEW Dollar all over the show has conflicting comments from US government officials. UK GDP surprises at 0.5% for the final quarter of 2017. ECB member says recent public noise on currency rates is proving unhelpful.   HIGHLIGHT The US Dollar continues to be extremely volatile as conflicting comments are made by the US Treasury Secretary… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 26, 2018

The dollar traded at softer levels after correcting a good chunk of the gains seen late yesterday after Trump said that he “ultimately” would prefer a strong dollar. EUR-USD settled in the mid 1.24s, up from the post-Trump low at 1.2364, but well off yesterday’s 37-month peak at 1.2537. Remarks from ECB’s Coeure that there… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 26, 2018

The dollar has ebbed back some after rallying after the London close yesterday at the prompt of Trump, who said from Davos that he favoured a strong dollar “ultimately.” EUR-USD settled around 1.2250, up from the post-Trump low at 1.2364. USD-JPY retreated to around 109.00, down from 109.77. The dollar has seen a similar ebb… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Euro Soars After Draghi's Limited FX Comments

OVERVIEW EUR hits fresh 3-year highs. The fallout from US Treasury Secretary’s comments on USD continues, despite attempts to clarify. British Pound trade-weighted index rises to 19-month high.  New Zealand Dollar slips after inflation slowed unexpectedly. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: Euro Soars After Draghi’s Limited FX Comments

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 25, 2018

The dollar was smacked down again in N.Y. morning trade on Thursday, taking the DXY to trend lows of 88.45. An upbeat ECB press conference lifted EUR-USD to multi-year highs of 1.2537, while USD-JPY touched 108.50. USD-CAD touched four month lows of 1.2283, while cable hit 19-month highs of 1.4345. Part of the morning’s losses… Read more »

December housing summary: sales and prices accelerate

With this morning’s release of new home sales for December, we have a good picture of the housing market through the end of 2017, with the caveat that the Census Bureau’s report on median asking rent for the 4th Quarter will not be released until next Tuesday.   Source: XE news feed December housing… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 25, 2018

The logged fresh lows in Asia before settling during in London trading. EUR-USD logged a 37-month high of 1.2459, extending the rally seen this week from the low 1.2200s, before settling in the lower 1.2400s into the ECB announcement. ECB policy is in sharp focus with market participants looking for further confirmation that the central… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 25, 2018

Another day, another tumble in the dollar. The USD index (DXY) clocked a new low at 88.81, which is the lowest levels since January 2014. EUR-USD is up for a fourth straight day, logging a fresh 37-month high at 1.2459 before settling around 1.2425. USD-JPY is down for a third straight day, this time logging… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Dollar Slumps After Treasury Secretary's Comments

OVERVIEW US Dollar is at 3-year low versus major counterparts after the Secretary of Treasury says the weaker Dollar is good. UK employment data very strong, with GBP outperforming. EUR stands at 3-year highs, PMIs show businesses ramped up activity in January.  US home sales fell more than expected in December while prices rose. HIGHLIGHT … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 24, 2018

The DXY was crushed to 89.20 lows in N.Y. trade on Wednesday, levels last seen in December of 2014. Selling kicked off in earnest after U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin’s Davos comments, where he said a weak dollar is good for U.S. exports. EUR-USD topped at 1.2411 after opening at 1.2340, while USD-JPY slid to 108.95… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 24, 2018

The dollar has come under fresh pressure. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) traded at fresh three-year lows, logging a nadir at 89.61 and bringing the cumulative loss on the year so far to 13%. EUR-USD logged a 37-month high of 1.2356, while USD-JPY traded below 110.00 for the first time since last September, posting… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 24, 2018

The dollar has come under fresh pressure. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) traded at fresh three-year lows, logging a nadir at 89.83 and bringing cumulative loss on the year so far to 13%. EUR-USD logged a 37-month high of 1.2335, while USD-JPY traded below 110.00 for the first time since last September, posting a… Read more »