Category: Currency

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 26, 2016

Most dollar majors are trading near net unchanged as the London interbank enters the fray. EUR-USD has seen less than a 20 pip range in the upper 1.08s after failing to sustain yesterday’s brief gains above 1.0900 nor earlier losses that left a seven-month low at 1.0851. USD-JPY ebbed back to the lower 104s after… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Oct 25, 2016

The dollar rallied in early N.Y. trade, taking the DXY to nine-month high over 99.00. EUR-USD touched 1.0852, a better than seven-month low, as USD-JPY rallied to a nearly three-month high of 104.85m, as cable slid to 1.2089, levels last seen on the “flash-crash” on October 7. USD gains were not to hold however, as… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Greeback Comfortable Before Election

OVERVIEW The Chinese Yuan trades at its lowest levels since the Bank of China opened the currency up to offshore trade in 2010. The Pound comes under renewed pressure ahead of Central Bank Governor Mark Carney’s address later this afternoon. Dollar remains strong as FED’s Williams hints at December rate hike again.  HIGHLIGHT The US… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 25, 2016

The yen weakened, which lifted USD-JPY and EUR-JPY, and other yen crosses, while EUR-USD saw on a brief bid following forecast-beating German Ifo business expectations survey for October. The Canadian dollar was volatile, rallying sharply before dropping back following remarks by BoC Governor Poloz, who miscommunicated that monetary policy would be on hold before correcting… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 25, 2016

USD-JPY edged out a 13-day high of 104.49 in a quiet news day in Asia, building on gains seen yesterday. The pair needs to rally above 104.63, which is the October-12 peak, to extend the rally seen from levels near 100.00 in late September. EUR-JPY, AUD-JPY and other yen crosses are also up today, reflecting… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Oct 24, 2016

The dollar trended higher in N.Y. trade on Monday, keeping the DXY near its almost nine-month high recorded in London. EUR-USD eased under 1.0875 from highs of 1.0899 into the open, while USD-JPY topped at better than a one-week high over 104.30. USD-CAD ran up to within a hair of the 134.00 mark, while cable… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Dollar Stronger on Expected Rate Hike

OVERVIEW The US Dollar hit a nine month high against a basket of currencies as markets predict a Clinton win in the upcoming election.  The Pound stays out of favor as the BBA said some banks may start moving their operations to Europe before Christmas.  EU manufacturing surveys impress with a reading of 53.3 against… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 24, 2016

The dollar majors posted narrow ranges, with EUR-USD and USD-JPY trading narrowly in the respective upper 1.08s and upper 103.0s. USD-CAD managed a new trend peak follow dovish sounding BoC-speak over the weekend. The CNY continued to weaken, the PBoC today fixing it at a six-year low at 6.769. Perky flash manufacturing PMI data October… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 24, 2016

The dollar opened the week in consolidative mood, holding near recent highs. The euro was also steady after recent underperformance, seen as markets factored in the ECB extending its QE program beyond next March, which is expected to be announced at the December council meeting. EUR-USD settled in the upper 1.08s, above Friday’s seven-month low… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: Is The Long Period of Deflation Over?

     After years of discussing the possibility of developed world deflation, inflation might be accelerating, relatively speaking.  The latest reading of Chinese producer prices was positive for the first time in three years.  Due to China’s position as the world’s manufacturer, this could eventually seep into other developed economies such as the EU and US. … Read more »

Fed President Fisher Explains Why Rates Are So Low

     Recently, Donald Trump accused the Federal Reserve of deliberately keeping rates low for purely political gain.  Several other Republican Congressmen and bloggers have made similar allegations.  But these pronouncements run counter to empirical data.  For example, earlier this year the San Francisco Federal Reserve released a study showing that the current level of interest… Read more »

US Equity and Economic Review: Expect a Slight Move Lower

     This week’s news confirmed that the US economy continues to grow moderately.  The Fed’s Beige Book and Conference Boards LEI/CEI release confirmed one another’s general observation the economy is advancing, albeit slowly.  The housing market continues to offer positive news while the industrial sector’s weak growth continues.  Turning to the markets, despite improvement… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: the wobbles turn more neutral edition

Commodity prices as measured by industrial metals bottomed last November. ECRI subsequently turned up as well, enough so that both turned positive. In the last month, however, metals have been negative for all but one week. Stock prices S&P 500 Up +0.4% w/w Stock prices became a positive having made new all-time highs in summer…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Oct 21, 2016

The dollar advanced further in N.Y. trade on Friday, taking EUR-USD to seven-month lows of 1.0860. USD-CAD also made a seven-month high of 1.3350 on the back of soft Canadian data, and wobbly oil prices. Cable recovered from lows near 1.2170, topping at 1.2242 into the Friday close. There was no U.S. data to drive… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Chinese Yuan Hits 6-Year Low

OVERVIEW The ECB left its QE program on hold, unveiling that there were no discussions for any further loosening in policy. In the UK, the release of the public finances reported a widening in the public finances deficit. The Euro drops to its lowest levels since June against the US dollar as investors feel underwhelmed… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 21, 2016

The dollar continued to traded firmly, driving, with the help of a generally soft euro, EUR-USD to a seven-month low. The dollar logged an eight-day peak versus the Canadian dollar and a four-day high against sterling, though the greenback remained below the four-day high it saw against the yen yesterday. The euro lifted off its… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 21, 2016

The dollar majors have plied narrow ranges. Hong Kong markets were closed by a “storm signal no. 8” warning as typhoon Haima hit town. The dollar settled to a consolidation of recent gains. USD-JPY has ebbed back under 104.00 after logging a four-day peak at 104.20 yesterday. The pair had rallied from a low seen… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Oct 20, 2016

The DXY rallied to seven-month highs of 98.40, largely lead by EUR-USD’s drop to 1.0915, four-month lows. Key for the euro will be the June 24 (Brexit Day) lows of 1.0912. USD-JPY and USD-CAD meanwhile, rallied to their respective intra day highs, while cable continued to bump along under the 1.2300 level. During his press… Read more »

September housing starts and permits: clear as mud!

Last Saturday in my Weekly Indicators column I noted that there was a little darkening of the data.  I elaborated on that Monday in this post:http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2016/10/the-darkening-skies.htmlIn view of the ambiguous signals from other long leading indicators, I said that housing data this month would take on an added importance.  In general, what I have been… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Sharp Slowdown in U.S. Housing Starts

OVERVIEW The Bank of Canada kept rates on hold as expected but surprised the market when Governor Poloz said they had discussed easing monetary policy. National Australia Bank’s quarterly survey of more than 920 firms showed its index of business conditions fell 4 points to +7 in the last quarter. Brazil’s central bank cut interest… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 20, 2016

The dollar traded moderately firmer. USD-JPY recouped to the upper 103s versus yesterday’s 10-day low at 103.16. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses have seen a similar price action, though USD-JPY’s rebound was bigger in magnitude as broader dollar firmness was a factor following the Fed’s latest Beige Book report, which was sufficiently upbeat to maintain… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 20, 2016

The dollar is moderately firmer heading into the open of the London interbank market. USD-JPY recouped to the upper 103s versus yesterday’s 10-day low at 103.16. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses have seen a similar price action, though USD-JPY’s rebound was bigger in magnitude as broader dollar firmness was a factor following the Fed’s latest… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Oct 19, 2016

The dollar was mixed in N.Y. trade on Wednesday, trading largely sideways against the euro into Thursday’s ECB meeting, while losing modest ground to the yen. Cable squandered its morning gains, while USD-CAD was choppy on the back of the BoC policy announcement and gyrations in oil prices. U.S. housing starts were softer than expected,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: UK Unemployment Shows No Brexit Effect

OVERVIEW Stock markets down slightly after yesterdays’ positive sentiment. The Japanese Yen is the top performer of the major G10 currencies. U.S. housing starts tumbled to a 1-1/2-year low in September, falling 9% from August when they fell by almost 6%. Chinese GDP growth was in line with expectations at 6.7% for the third quarter… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 19, 2016

USD-JPY and yen crosses proved the main action as the yen strengthened following a report in Kyodo News citing an unnamed BoJ member saying that there won’t be an easing at the November policy meeting. USD-JPY shed about 0.5% in making an eight-day low at 103.24, while EUR-JPY dipped by a similar magnitude as it… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Oct 18, 2016

The dollar sold off in the immediate aftermath of the slightly cooler U.S. core CPI outcome, though quickly bounced back as yields recovered, likely due to the launch of the large Saudi bond offering. Wall Street posted strong gains on better earnings results from Goldman, J&J and Netflix. EUR-USD topped at 1.1013 after the CPI… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Sterling Follows Rise in UK Inflation

OVERVIEW Sterling is up by around 1% against both the Dollar and the Euro after UK inflation rose more than expected. Market sentiment turned positive after stronger-than-expected Chinese loan growth data raised expectations for GDP growth. U.S. inflation rose as expected to 1.5% year-on-year in September, though the core rate slowed unexpectedly to 2.2%. Australia’s… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 18, 2016

The dollar traded mostly softer, which has put EUR-USD back above 1.1100 and USD-JPY below 104.00. A rare rebound in the pound, which was seen during the Asian session and extended in London following perkier than expected UK inflation data, was also in the mix. The weakness in the greenback follows remarks by Fed vice… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Oct 17, 2016

FX trade was quiet in N.Y. on Monday, with most major dollar pairings maintaining narrow ranges. The greenback was mostly lower through the day, taking a breather from recent gains, and pulling back from the overnight seven-month DXY peak. Incoming data included an in-line industrial production report, and a weaker Empire State index outcome, neither… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Markets Bet on December Fed Rate Hike

OVERVIEW Reports state that the UK government is considering paying into the EU budget in order to maintain single market access. Eurozone inflation for September was confirmed at 0.4% year-on-year as the gradual recovery in prices continued. The Empire State manufacturing PMI came in at -6.8 for October, down from -1.99 last month and disappointing… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 17, 2016

The dollar traded somewhat mixed in mostly narrow ranges in early-week trade. EUR-USD edged out an 11-week low at 1.0963, making this the sixth consecutive lower low on the daily chart, before the pair recouped toward 1.1000. Boston Fed president Rosengren repeated in a WSJ interview over the weekend his arguments for hiking sooner rather… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 17, 2016

The dollar has opened the week on a mixed-to-firm footing, edging out an 11-week high versus the euro, nudging higher versus the pound and commodity currencies, but holding near net steady against the yen. EUR-USD logged an 11-week low at 1.0963, making this the sixth consecutive lower low on the daily chart. Boston Fed president… Read more »

US Equity and Economic Review: Short-Term Market Trend is Slightly Lower

     This was a light week for U.S. economic news.  There were two labor market releases.  First, the labor market conditions index declined 2.2.  This data series, produced by the Kansas City Fed, is remarkably accurate.  There’s a .83 correlation between it and the monthly change in payrolls for the last 10 years as… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: The Fed Again Overshoots Their GDP Predicsion

     On Wednesday, the Fed released the minutes from their September meeting.  As usual, their analysis of the current situation began with a discussion of the labor market, which they viewed positively.  The unemployment rate and the 4-week moving average of unemployment claims are low, the labor force participation rate and employment to population… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: No Central Theme, Edition

     This week, there was no central theme or major report to highlight.  Instead, I’ll discuss the major releases from the developed regions along with some important speeches given by several central bankers.      EU news was positive.  Industrial production, which has been moving sideways since 4Q15, gained 1.6% M/M and 1.8% Y/Y.  All… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: a slight darkening of the picture edition

Commodity prices as measured by industrial metals bottomed last November. ECRI subsequently turned up as well, enough so that both turned positive.  After briefly turning down enough to be negative, industrial metals are positive again. Stock prices S&P 500 Down -1.1% w/w  Stock prices became a positive having made new all-time highs in summer. Regional… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Oct 14, 2016

The dollar traded on a slightly firmer footing in early N.Y. on Friday, buoyed by warmer PPI and decent retail sales data. Following weak consumer sentiment data later though, the greenback eased back into session lows. Wall Street gave back the bulk of early gains, which weighed down USD-JPY. That pairing topped at 104.47, later… Read more »

U.S. Retail Sales Rebound

OVERVIEW The market looks like it will end the week on a positive note with Asian and European markets in the green, following stronger inflation data from China. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said the central bank is not “indifferent to the level of Sterling, and it does matter, ultimately for inflation”. Donald Tusk,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 14, 2016

USD-JPY edged out a two-day high of 104.15 in Tokyo trade today, but has so far lacked impetus to challenge Wednesday’s high at 104.63. The tick higher was mostly a reflection of yen weakness, which lifted EUR-JPY and other yen crosses. AUD-JPY, which is a risk appetite proxy, recouped most of the losses seen yesterday… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Oct 13, 2016

The recent dollar rally took a breather in N.Y. on Thursday, taking the DXY to lows near 97.50, from seven-month highs of 98.12 seen overnight. EUR-USD found support ahead of 1.1000 through the session, later topping at 1.1054. USD-JPY suffered on the back of risk-off conditions, taking that pairing to 103.34 lows from 103.88 at… Read more »

Chinese Exports Slump

OVERVIEW Weaker than expected Chinese trade data has put the market in another cautious ‘risk-off’ mode, with the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc strengthening. Last night’s FOMC minutes indicated that its policy makers are getting closer to raising rates, with several Feds judging a hike would be warranted “relatively soon”. The ECB is said to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 13, 2016

The dollar traded mixed, logging trend highs versus the euro but retreating to over a net 0.5% loss on the day against the yen, having hit a 10-week peak during the early Tokyo session. A big miss in Chinese exports drove a risk-off play in forex markets in the Asia session. AUD-JPY, which is a… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 13, 2016

A big miss in Chinese exports drove a risk-off play in forex markets in the Asia session. AUD-JPY, which is a risk appetite proxy, shed nearly 1%, while USD-JPY, which had earlier clocked a 10-week high at 104.63, tipped back sharply to a low of 103.55, subsequently settling around 103.80. Aside from the 10% y/y… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Oct 12, 2016

The dollar advanced further in N.Y. trade on Wednesday, taking the DXY over the 98,00 mark for the first time since March. EUR-USD dipped to 1.1005 lows, fresh two-plus month lows, as USD-JPY topped 104.45, also a two-month peak. Cable gave back the 1.2300 handle, settling into 1.2250, as USD-CAD advanced over 1.3285 as oil… Read more »

British Pound Recovers

OVERVIEW The British Pound regained some ground overnight, falling below 1.21 against the US Dollar yesterday on continued fears over a hard Brexit. Bank of Japan policy makers signaled that the bar to additional monetary easing has been raised following last month’s policy changes. Eurozone’s industrial output rose by a stronger than expected 1.6% in… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 12, 2016

The dollar has been trading mixed so far today, gaining versus the euro and yen, but losing ground to the pound, which rebounded strongly today, and the Australian dollar. EUR-USD clocked a 10-week low of 1.1031 while USD-JPY settled in the mid 103s, fractionally up on the day but remaining well within yesterday’s range, in… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 12, 2016

Sterling rebounded two big figures against the dollar in logging a peak of 1.2325. The pair has since settled around 1.2270, but remains about 1.2% up on the day. The move was sparked by news, reported initially by Sky, that PM May has backed down and will allow parliament to scrutinise the government’s Brexit plan… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Oct 11, 2016

The dollar firmed in N.Y. trade on Tuesday, taking the DXY to seven-month highs of 97.68. Firmer yields and increased expectations for a Fed rate hike before year-end have supported. EUR-USD and cable led the charge, with the former falling to fresh two-month lows of 1.1055, and the latter bottoming at 1.2107, which on a… Read more »

Is a stabilizing unemployment rate a precursor to recession?

One of the increasing meme’s I’ve read on Doomer sites is that, because the level of initial jobless claims, or the unemployment rate, is so low, they are actually harbinger’s of recession.  One such commentator has gone so far as to claim that jobless claims are “in a bubble” — for about the last two… Read more »

Rand Plunges as Finance Minister Summoned

OVERVIEW A number of currencies are on the move today with the Dollar broadly strengthening on presidential polling, increasing bets that the Federal reserve will raise rates in December. The British Pound continues to move lower after new members of the Bank of England said that the Sterling could weaken further.  The New Zealand Dollar… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 11, 2016

The dollar has traded firmer both yesterday and today, logging two-session highs today versus the euro and a three-session peak against the yen. Fed tightening expectations have been keeping the dollar bid. The U.S. currency was showing an average 0.4% gain versus its G3 peers plus sterling, as of the early European PM session. Our… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 11, 2016

The dollar continued to trade firmer. EUR-USD logged a low of 1.1119, putting last Friday’s two-month nadir into reach, while USD-JPY’s rally extended to a peak of 104.04, swinging last Thursday’s six-week peak at 104.16 into scope. Fed tightening expectations having been keeping the dollar bid. Our post-employment data survey of Fed watchers found all… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Oct 10, 2016

North American trade was light on Monday, with the U.S. partially closed, and Canada off for Thanksgiving. The dollar was mixed overall, posting modest gains versus the euro and yen, while losing ground to the CAD on firmer oil prices. EUR-USD eased from 1.1165 to 1.1139 lows, as USD-JPY topped at 103.79 up from 1.0330,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: German Exports Jump in August

OVERVIEW The U.S. presidential debate comprised accusations from both Trump and Clinton over the other’s behavior and personal life. U.S. markets are closed for Columbus Day.  The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said its leading indicator points to stable growth momentum in major economies with UK growth stabilizing at a lower rate. The Eurozone… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 10, 2016

Thin conditions have prevailed so far today amid holidays in Japan and Canada, and a partial holiday in the U.S. (Treasury markets and Federal Reserve closed, but Wall Street open). The Mexican Peso and Canadian dollar were showing net 1.7% and 0.3% gains versus the U.S. dollar, respectively, as of the early European PM, suggesting… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 10, 2016

Both the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar are higher, having rallied in early Asian trade before giving back some, but not all, of the gains during the second Trump versus Clinton presidential debate. The peso, going into the London open, is showing a 1.3% gain versus the U.S. buck, at 19.047, while the Canadian dollar… Read more »

US Equity and Economic Review: Stronger ISM Numbers And a Market Treading Water

     This week, the Institute for Supply Management released the latest manufacturing and non-manufacturing reports.  The manufacturing number rebounded into positive territory, rising 2.1 points to 51.4.  New orders were up 6, production increased 3.2, and the anecdotal comments were encouraging.  The lack of participation was the only negative: only 7 of 18 sectors… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: 2 Brief Points About Employment and Interest Rates

I’d like to make 2 brief points in this column: On Friday’s employment report: the headline number was 167,000 which lowered the 3-month average to 191,666.  Although the headline numbers have been coming down a bit, they are doing so in a 5% unemployment environment, meaning there are fewer people to hire.  Earnings were up… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: Another Warning About Growth, This Time From the IMF

     In the post-Great Recession world, announcements from global groups such as the IMF, OECD and World Bank that warn about slowing growth occur with clockwork precision.  This week, the IMF took its turn, releasing the latest World Economic Outlook that contained the following general observation: Global growth is projected to slow to 3.1 percent… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: oil prices are no longer a tailwind edition

Commodity prices as measured by industrial metals bottomed last November. ECRI subsequently turned up as well, enough so that both turned positive.  After briefly turning down enough to be negative, industrial metals are positive again. Stock prices S&P 500 Down -0.7% w/w Stock prices became a positive having made new all-time highs during the last… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Oct 07, 2016

The dollar rattled around after the softer U.S. jobs report, though eventually lost altitude into the weekend on profit taking. The 156k NFP outcome was light of expectations, though for the most part did not alter the Fed rate outlook. December odds remained about where they were ahead of the data, near 60%. EUR-USD based… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Flash Crash & Pound Plunges

OVERVIEW Markets are unsettled following the Pound plunging by over 6% in just a couple of minutes against the U.S. Dollar, overnight. Francois Hollande’s comments that the UK must be made to pay for leaving the EU has stirred concerns that the UK could lose access to the single market, causing further pressure on the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 07, 2016

The pound saw a dramatic “flash crash” dive and partial recovery during the early Asia session, which is a notoriously thin time of the day for sterling markets. The catalyst was remarks from French PM Hollande, who backed up Merkel in signalling that the EU will be heading into Brexit negotiations on a hardline stance…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 07, 2016

The pound saw big volatility after Hollande signalled that the EU will be a tough stance at upcoming Brexit negotiations. Cable dove precipitously, making a low of 1.1841 on EBS before rebounding to 1.2483 and then settling around 1.2450, which is still a net loss of 1.2% on the day. The notoriously thin sterling market… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Oct 06, 2016

The dollar rallied in N.Y. trade on Thursday, taking the DXY to better than two-month highs of 96.67. Slightly better U.S. jobless claims data helped sentiment, and added to generally better data seen this week, which has improved the odds for a Fed rate hike into year-end. Of course, Friday’s employment report will be key… Read more »

Japanese Yen Weakens

OVERVIEW  The Japanese Yen fell to a four-month low against the Dollar overnight as the U.S. services PMI raised the prospect of a rate hike. The Pound has fallen to a fresh 31-year low against the US Dollar as negative market sentiment once again causes investors to sell the Pound. German industrial orders rose more… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 06, 2016

The dollar posted moderate gains against most currencies, though ranges were generally narrow. EUR-USD ebbed under 1.1200 and USD-JPY eked out a fresh one-month peak at 103.73, though there was little follow-through impetus with the pair’s range remaining less than 40 pips. Sterling managed to find a toe hold above the 31-year low at 1.2685… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 06, 2016

The main dollar pairings have eked out narrow ranges so far today. EUR-USD has remained in a narrow orbit of 1.1200, while the yen’s recent spell of underperformance, which has been in play since mid last week following the BoJ’s announcement of a new monetary policy framework, has come to a pause today. USD-JPY and… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Oct 05, 2016

Incoming U.S. data was generally dollar positive in N.Y. trade on Wednesday. Aside from a minor miss in the ADP payroll survey, services ISM and factory orders beat expectations. Firmer yields and hawkish Fedspeak continued to keep a general bid under the greenback. EUR-USD topped at 1.1219 early, before putting in a low of 1.1190…. Read more »

Euro Jumps On ECB Rumours

OVERVIEW Activity in the services sector across the Eurozone grew at its weakest rate since the beginning of 2015. Concerns over Brexit weighed on business spending and sentiment. The Pound’s woes continue as it hit a fresh 31-year low against the Dollar, and a 5-year low against the Euro, with negative market sentiment adding to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 05, 2016

The euro clocked fresh highs against the yen and euro, among other currencies, but remained shy of yesterday’s peak it saw against the dollar. The yen and sterling continued to bear the brunt of Fed tightening possibilities and the ECB’s alleged desire to trim bond purchases. The final Eurozone services PMI for September was revised… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 05, 2016

The euro has remained bid following reports that the ECB is considering tapering its QE program. EUR-USD lifted back toward the high seen yesterday after the London close, at 1.1218, while EUR-JPY rallied to fresh three-week high territory above 115.00. USD-JPY also managed to clock a new three-week high, at 102.99, with the dollar itself… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Oct 04, 2016

FX trade was relatively calm through the morning session, though the dollar picked up ground on all major currencies. There was no U.S. data to drive markets, though recent hawkish tilting Fedspeak took yields, and the USD higher. Into the London close, a report emerged indicating the ECB is said to be nearing a consensus… Read more »

Better news from September ISM manufacturing and vehicle sales

We got our first look at September monthly economic data yesterday with the release of the ISM manufacturing and motor vehicle sales reports.  These are noteworthy every month because both are valuable short leading indicators on the production and consumption side, respectively, usually by about 6 months.  They assumed an additional importance because August data… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Pound Hits 31-Year Low

OVERVIEW UK Construction PMI surveys for September were reported a six-month high of 52.3 against the expected 49.0. The UK economy continues to produce solid growth across sectors.  Germany’s trade association BGA, citing macro-economic uncertainties, cut its growth forecast from 4.5% to just 2.0% for 2017.  US Manufacturing surveys released overnight for September were better… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Oct 04, 2016

The dollar outperformed while the yen and sterling underperformed. USD-JPY surged into 13-day high terrain during the Tokyo session before the pace of gains moderated during the London AM session, when a new peak at 102.49 was logged, up from yesterday’s closing level at 101.64. Cable, meanwhile, dove below the post-Brexit lows seen in early… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Oct 04, 2016

USD-JPY sprang to a 13-day high of 102.39, up from yesterday’s closing level at 101.64. This led dollar losses in some other pairings today, while EUR-JPY and other yen crosses also rallied. A survey by the BoJ, which is part of its comprehensive Tankan poll, found that corporate inflation expectations have continued to ebb despite… Read more »