Category: Currency

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jul 06, 2017

The dollar has traded softer against most currencies. USD-CAD came under fresh pressure, which found bids but amid a 1%-plus rebound in oil prices (following yesterday’s near 4% haemorrhage). EUR-USD lifted above 1.1360 after ECB member Villeroy said that the prevailing non-standard policy is “not eternal,” which was sufficient to spark a tick higher in… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jul 06, 2017

The dollar majors have been plying narrow ranges so far today, with a blip higher in the greenback following the release of the Fed minutes from the mid June FOMC meeting not amounting to much. The minutes didn’t discourage beliefs the Fed will continue to reduce accommodation, via rate hikes and the balance sheet unwind…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jul 05, 2017

The dollar was relatively steady through the morning session, though later slipped briefly to N.Y. session lows after the FOMC minutes release, before quickly bouncing back above pre-release levels. EUR-USD popped to 1.1357 highs from near 1.1340, before falling to 1.1326 lows. USD-JPY meanwhile, dipped to 112.98 from 113.30, and has since rallied to 113.47… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: South African Rand Slides

OVERVIEW The Eurozone economy continues to see solid levels of growth, though activity slowed slightly in the services sector with June’s PMI dipping to 55.4, from 56.3. Eurozone retail sales rose 0.4% in May, stronger than forecast, adding to the year-on-year growth of 2.6%. The UK service sector slowed more than expected last month as… Read more »

Houses, cars, and manufacturing Oh My!

We got contrasting data showing weakness and strength on Monday, that on balance nudges my outlook slightly darker. Source: XE news feed Houses, cars, and manufacturing Oh My!

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jul 05, 2017

The dollar has continued its recovery run, posting gains for a third consecutive session in the case against the euro and sterling, and rising against other currencies . USD-JPY has logged a fresh seven-week high at 113.62, while EUR-USD has hit a five-session low at 1.1318 and Cable a four-session low at 1.2893. The narrow… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jul 05, 2017

The dollar majors have been directionally challenged so far today, with narrow ranges prevailing. EUR-USD has settled around 1.1350, modestly above the five-session low posted yesterday at 1.1336. USD-JPY has been trading on either side of 113.00 over the last day, holding in a consolidation pattern after logging a seven-week high at 113.47 on Monday,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jul 04, 2017

The dollar majors traded steadily in quiet trading conditions in the absence of U.S. markets. The Canadian and Australian dollar were the biggest movers, with the former rallying to fresh trend highs following the latest instalment of hawkish BoCspeak, while latter dove after the RBA signalled out exchange rate strength as a hindrance to the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Reserve Bank of Australia Leave Rates Cautiously on Hold

OVERVIEW The Australian Dollar slumps in value as the Central Bank chooses to leave interest rates on hold with a less hawkish tone.  The US Dollar takes a rest for Independence Day. The Euro continues to consolidate in the 1.13’s against the US Dollar backed up by the recent strong economic data. The Pound weakens… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jul 04, 2017

The narrow trade-weighted USD index edged out a fresh five-session high at 96.08, despite a softening in USD-JPY. EUR-USD declined for a fourth-straight session, which follows ECB efforts to correct its tapering message. The pair logged a four-session low at 1.1336. Cable logged a four-session low at 1.2915 before recouping toward 1.2950. UK construction PMI… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jul 04, 2017

The Australian dollar dove following the RBA announcement, with Governor Lowe’s statement giving a mixed prognosis of the economy and, in particular, highlighting that an “appreciating exchange would complicate” the transition of the economy from the mining investment boom. AUD-USD fell over 0.6% in making a four-session low at 0.7604, and AUD-JPY shed over 1%… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jul 03, 2017

The dollar rallied in N.Y. trade on Monday, though activity dried up after the London close, as U.S. traders made their way to the exits ahead of Tuesday’s Independence Day holiday. Incoming data was supportive, as the June manufacturing ISM handily beat street expectations. Wall Street rallied, taking the Dow to all-time highs, as yields… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jul 03, 2017

The dollar rebounded some of the losses it saw last week. The narrow trade-weighted USD index was showing a 0.4% gain, as of the late European PM session, which follows the 2.5% loss of last week. This Wednesday’s release of the FOMC minutes from the mid-June meeting is focusing market attention, as they should contain… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jul 03, 2017

The dollar has started the week steady to firmer after coming under broad pressure last week. Trading conditions will be thin today with Canadian markets closed, and the U.S. out tomorrow. USD-JPY nudged to the north of 112.50 just as the London interbank take to their desks, having been settled in the low-to-mid 112.0s during… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jun 30, 2017

The dollar steadied some in N.Y. trade on Friday, moving off its lows of the week as month and quarter end profit taking set in. Incoming U.S. data was decent, with personal income, Chicago PMI and Michigan sentiment all beating expectations. This said, the data had little impact on the greenback. EUR-USD topped at .1.1427,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jun 30, 2017

The dollar managed to rebound against the euro, which came under broad corrective pressure. EUR-USD dropped by some 50 pips in making a low at 1.1392. EUR-JPY, EUR-GBP and other euro crosses also fell. The common currency was perhaps due a correction after rallying quite strongly this week on the ECB tapering narrative. Source:… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jun 30, 2017

The dollar has remained soft amid a backdrop of risk aversion, with the apparent hawkish awakening at a number of key central banks prompting a defensive reaction in richly-priced global equity markets. EUR-USD consolidated just off yesterday’s 13-month high at 1.1445, USD-CAD logged a fresh five-month low at 1.2971, Cable posted a five-week high at… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Under Pressure

OVERVIEW British Pound, Euro, and the Canadian Dollar are all higher following central bank stimulus withdrawal comments. U.S. first-quarter GDP growth was revised up to 1.5% annualized on stronger consumer spending.  Euro-zone economic sentiment jumped more than expected in June, highest level since August 2007. UK lending data was stronger than expected in May as… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jun 29, 2017

The dollar was lower again on Thursday in N.Y., taking EUR-USD to 14-month highs of 1.1444 in the process. USD-JPY came under attack as the risk backdrop deteriorated, with global equities taking it on the chin, as global central banks this week seemed to all turn hawkish at once. USD-CAD fell under 1.3000 for the… Read more »

One year later, Brexit has been "a fire across the river"

One year ago, just after the Brexit vote, I wrote that I saw it as “a fire across the river,” a shame for the UK, but an issue that would not have more than a minor effect on the US economy.  This was in response to a speech by Fed President Lael Brainard in which he… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jun 29, 2017

The dollar and yen lost ground to most other currencies. The euro logged fresh trend highs versus the dollar and yen, though traded more mixed against other currencies, gaining versus the Swiss franc but losing ground to the pound and commodity currencies today. EUR-USD edged out a one-year peak at 1.1419 and EUR-JPY lifted into… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jun 29, 2017

The dollar and yen have weakened against most currencies today. EUR-USD edged out a one-year peak at 1.1419, Cable posted a three-week high at 1.2876, USD-CHF forayed into seven-month-plus low territory, and the greenback saw respective four- and three-month lows against the Canadian and Australian dollars. As for the yen, while USD-JPY remained rangebound in… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jun 28, 2017

Central bankers riled up markets in N.Y. on Wednesday, with the BoE’s Carney hinting at a rate hike. The pound surged higher on the news, topping at three-week highs of 1.2972. In Europe, a Bloomberg “source” report implied the markets had misinterpreted Draghi’s hawkish tone on Monday, resulting in a briefly lower euro. EUR-USD later… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: British Pound Jumps on Carney’s U-Turn

OVERVIEW Central bank speak has dominated the markets today causing some large swings in the Euro, the Pound, and the Canadian Dollar. Eurozone central bank sources told Reuters the market had overinterpreted comments from ECB President Mario Draghi yesterday. Nationwide reported UK house prices rose 1.1% in June, the biggest jump since April 2015 that… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Fall of Australian Dollar Continues

OVERVIEW Markets are higher across Europe today as optimism over global growth drove investors towards equities and away from government bonds. German industrial output also pointed to robust economic activity as it rose 1.4% in the first quarter. The British Retail Consortium reported the strongest year-on-year growth in six years in April. Canadian building permits… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Mar 20, 2017

The USD index hit a fresh six-week low at 99.86, extending the run lower since last Wednesday’s less hawkish than anticipated FOMC guidance. The index lifted off its lows, but at 100.01 was still down by over 1.6% since the Fed’s announcement, as of the late London AM session. Downside momentum has been abating over… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Mar 20, 2017

The dollar has remained under the cosh. USD-JPY edged out a three-week low at 112.47, making this the fourth straight day of lower lows this pairing has seen. EUR-USD is heading in to the London interbank open at intraday highs above 1.0750, with Friday’s six-week peak t 1.0782 back into scope. AUD-JPY is trading at… Read more »

Brexit Blues Drive Sterling To 2-month Low

OVERVIEW The US Dollar remains strong as we head into the FOMC decision on interest rates. UK Government won approval to trigger Article 50, putting the Sterling under pressure. The ZEW survey came in lower than expected as political risks in Europe weigh on German economic sentiment. Eurozone industrial production rose 0.9% in January compared… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Unchanged Interest Rates Strengthens Euro

OVERVIEW U.S. President Trump plans to move quickly on the $1 trillion infrastructure plan. Euro stands strong as ECB leaves interest rates and the QE program unchanged. British Pound is lower as markets ignore budgets higher growth and lower public debt predictions. HIGHLIGHT The ECB was the highlight of the day, leaving interest rates and the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Yellen Says Rate Hike Appropriate

OVERVIEW  Stock markets kicked off a down week. North Korea’s missile test and Donald Trump’s accusation monitored phone calls are weighing on investor sentiment.  Eurozone investor morale improved more than expected in March, with Sentix research group’s monthly index rising to 20.7 from 17.4. US factory orders rose 1.2% in January, slightly outpacing market forecasts… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Sterling Falls as UK Economy Starts to Slow

OVERVIEW Eurozone private sector business activity rose at its quickest pace in nearly six years in February, as the composite PMI rose sharply to 56.0. Retail sales fell for a third straight month in January, rising to 1.2% year-on-year despite unemployment being at its lowest level since 2009. The U.S. service sector saw activity growth… Read more »

Real money supply nears the caution zone

In my last “Weekly Indicators” installment, I noted that real M2 money supply has decelerated enough that it is close to being downgraded from a positive to neutral. I wanted to follow up on why that is, and relating that to the “Kasriel indicator.” Source: XE news feed Real money supply nears the caution… Read more »

XE Market Analysis:Dollar Rallies on Rate Hike Expectations

OVERVIEW US consumer spending rose 0.2% in January, less than expected. Inflation jumped 0.4%, reducing consumer buying power. Growth in US manufacturing accelerated at the fastest pace in over two years last month while new orders also jumped.  The UK manufacturing PMI fell to 54.6 last month as growth slowed from a 2-1/2 year high…. Read more »

Aussie dollar surges to ten-month high

The Aussie dollar surged to a ten-month high yesterday, climbing above US77.4c for a period in trading, before consolidating around US77.17c. The new high extends a strong US5c rise seen since the beginning of the year, creating additional headwinds for beef exports. The post Aussie dollar surges to ten-month high appeared first on Beef Central. … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Japanese Yen Rises as Market Sentiment Sours

OVERVIEW Stock markets are down over one percentage point across Europe, and the Japanese Yen is higher, as investors question the ability of Donald Trump’s administration to significantly boost economic growth. Canadian inflation jumped more than expected in January, due largely to a 20% rise in gasoline prices. U.S. consumer sentiment rose back to its… Read more »

Uncertainty surrounds impact from new Chinese rules on currency transfers

It’s not yet clear whether recent Chinese regulatory changes over international monetary transfers will have any short or longer-term impact on foreign investment in the Australian cattle property sector. The post Uncertainty surrounds impact from new Chinese rules on currency transfers appeared first on Beef Central. Source: Beef Central Uncertainty surrounds impact from new… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Dollar Rises on Rate Hike Talk

OVERVIEW U.S. stock markets set fresh record highs at the open, with oil prices also higher. Eurozone flash estimate PMIs showed growth unexpectedly in the services and manufacturing sectors, accelerated to a near six-year high last month, and job creation reached its fastest in almost a decade. UK public sector borrowing figures for last month… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: British Pound Outperforms in Quiet Markets

OVERVIEW Markets are quiet with the U.S. closed for President’s Day. Japanese exports rose just 1.3% in January due to a decline in shipments to the U.S. ECB board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger said they need to wait to see if inflation stabilizes. HIGHLIGHT Source: XE news feed XE Market Analysis: British Pound Outperforms in… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Dollar Strengthens as Inflation Jumps

OVERVIEW Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, signaled yesterday that the central bank could raise rates at its next meeting as all meetings are “live”, leaving an optimistic note on the economy in testimony to Congress. BoJ Governor, Kuroda, said he now has plans to raise the central bank’s bond yield targets, despite global yields rising as… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 15, 2017

The dollar remain underpinned in the wake of Yellen’s Senate testimony. EUR-USD forayed into new one-month low territory under 1.0550, and USD-JPY lifted to 16-day highs above 114.50. Cable got a helping push from an unexpected deceleration in UK wage data, which offset a dubiously large claimant count fall. The pair posted and eight-day low… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 15, 2017

The dollar consolidated post-Yellen gains in the pre-London session in Asia. USD-JPY steadied after rallying over a big figure to a 114.50 high in the wake of Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony before the Senate, where she left the door open for a March hike, which was enough of a surprise from the normally dovish Yellen… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 14, 2017

The dollar rallied broadly in N.Y. on Tuesday, with moves driven by Fed chair Yellen’s congressional testimony, as she kept a March rate hike in the picture, saying a rate hike would be appropriate “at our upcoming meetings”. All meetings are “live”, though this statement appeared to have been the driver to bump up the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Eurozone Growth Revised Down

OVERVIEW UK inflation accelerated to its fastest pace in 2 in a half years last month due to higher fuel and the fall in the pound, but was below analyst forecasts. Donald Trump’s top security adviser, Michael Flynn, resigned over alleged conversations he had with Russian diplomats prior to Trump’s inauguration. Chinese inflation picked up… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 14, 2017

The dollar has traded mostly softer so far today, with markets wary ahead of the Senate testimony of the dovish Fed chairwoman Yellen and following the resignation of Trump’s national security adviser. Cable was the exception, as the pound dove 0.5% to 1.2445 following below-forecast CPI data, subsequently steadying, leaving yesterday’s low 1.2440 unchallenged. USD-JPY,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Japanese Economic Growth Remains Soft

OVERVIEW The European Commission forecasted Eurozone growth to slow slightly this year to 1.6%, but to pick up to 1.8% in 2018. U.K. consumer spending grew at one of the slowest annual rates of the past three years, according to data from Visa.  U.S. consumer sentiment slipped more than expected in early February as the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 13, 2017

A weaker yen has been the main theme so far today. EUR-USD lifted to an intraday peak of 1.0658 amid a furry of dollar selling, since retreating back under 1.0645 as the buck staged a rebound. The upward move was concomitant with a dip in USD-JPY to 113.43, which marked a 70-odd pip retreat from… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 13, 2017

Yen weakness was the main show in town in pre-London dealings in Asia. This saw USD-JPY rally briefly back above 114.00 today from the 112.86 low seen in the wake of Friday’s pressure conference after the Trump-Abe meeting, when the former said that “we will be on a level playing field soon” with exchange rates…. Read more »

JBS moves into first Certified Organic beef program

JBS Australia will begin processing its first Certified Organic cattle next month, in a move which will inevitably add competitive tension for eligible stock in the marketplace. The post JBS moves into first Certified Organic beef program appeared first on Beef Central. Source: Beef Central JBS moves into first Certified Organic beef program

US Equity and Economic Review: The Markets Make a Small Move Higher

     This week’s U.S. news consisted of released that are secondary in importance, beginning with the JOLTs report – jobs opening and labor turnover.  This release provides insight into employers’ and employees’ attitudes about the labor market.  This is a relatively new data series; we only have another set of results from the previous expansion,… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: long leading indicators turn a darker shade of gray

Monthly data for January was sparse.  Sentiment as measured by the U. of Michigan retreated slightly.  December wholesale inventories rose, but sales rose even more. The December JOLTS report was essentially flat. Source: XE news feed Weekly Indicators: long leading indicators turn a darker shade of gray

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 10, 2017

The dollar was mixed in N.Y. trade on Friday, rallying some against the euro and pound, while losing ground to the yen and CAD. EUR-USD traded a relatively narrow range, though did manage to post nearly one-month lows of 1.0608. USD-JPY meanwhile, sold off ahead of the Trump/Abe meeting in Washington, later touching lows of… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Dollar Rises on Trump's Tax Talk

OVERVIEW  Chinese trade data for January was much stronger than expected, as imports rose at the fastest pace in four years, which is an encouraging start to 2017 for the world’s largest trading nation. U.K. manufacturing production jumped 2.1% in December, and industrial output rose 1.1%, adding to robust consumer spending and service sector activity. … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 10, 2017

The dollar remained underpinned in the wake of Trump’s hint yesterday of “phenomenal” tax news, which was followed-up by an unexpected phone all between Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi, where Trump said that he would respect the “One China” policy, helping ease tensions. USD-JPY remained the lead pairing in the dollar advance, with the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 10, 2017

USD-JPY led the broader dollar rally sparked by Trump’s hint yesterday that “something” on the tax cut front in the next 2-3 weeks that would be “phenomenal,” which was followed-up by an unexpected phone all between Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi, where Trump said that he would respect the “One China” policy, helping ease… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 09, 2017

The dollar moved higher into and following stronger U.S. data, taking EUR-USD to 1.0651 lows, from near 1.0690. USD-JPY meanwhile, spiked up to 113.29 highs from near 112.35. Yields and stocks moved higher as well. The initial rally just ahead of the wholeslae data appeared to have been started by comments from president Trump, who… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Kiwi Dollar Falls After RBNZ Statement

OVERVIEW Another subdued day across markets today with no major economic data released, and the US east coast bracing itself for ‘Thundersnow’. Germany’s trade surplus came in below expectations for December as exports fell sharply, but hit a record high for the year.  Fed President, James Bullard, indicated that US interest rates can remain low… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 09, 2017

EUR-USD declined after failing to sustain above 1.07 for a second time in two days. The pair has retreated back to the 1.0675 area and is now showing a 0.2% loss on the day. Elsewhere in currency markets it’s a mixed picture. EUR-CHF has gained some 0.3%, which is a relatively large move for this… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 09, 2017

The dollar is showing moderate gains heading into the London interbank open, USD-JPY having repaired itself above 112.00, putting in some space from the 10-week low seen on Tuesday at 111.59, and EUR-USD having ebbed back to a 1.06 handle after failing to sustain rebound gains above 1.07. Source: XE news feed XE Market… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 08, 2017

The dollar again started the session on a stronger footing, though as was the case on Tuesday, faded through the morning session, as yields slipped, and Wall Street sputtered. A soft 10-year note auction appeared to help the greenback later in the session, as Treasury yields bounced. EUR-USD opened at 1.0650 before posting 1.0714 highs,… Read more »

A close look at credit conditions: the Senior Loan Officer Survey

The Fedeeral Reserve’s senior loan officer survey measures credit demand and availability each quarter.  Recently I added one measure to my list of long leading indicators, with the qualifier that we only have a little over 25 years of data. Let’s take a more detailed look. Source: XE news feed A close look at… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: BREXIT Rambles On

OVERVIEW Political Risks weigh on the Euro as both the French elections and the Greek Debt surface again.  Safe-haven buying buoys the US Dollar with most currencies trading flat due to a lack of economic data. Reserve Bank of India surprises markets and leave REPO rate unchanged, while changing its stance from accommodative to neutral…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 08, 2017

The euro came under more across-the-board pressure, while the dollar, outside the case of EUR-USD, traded consolidatively following yesterday’s gains. EUR-USD ebbed to a nine-day low at 1.0640, breaching yesterday’s nadir at 1.0656. This made it the fourth consecutive session the pair has clocked a lower low, breaching the 20-day moving average on route. … Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 08, 2017

The dollar and the majors have settled in relatively narrow trading ranges, EUR-USD in the mid 1.06s and USD-JPY in the lower 112s, the latter consolidating after hitting an 10-week low at 111.59 on Tuesday. Friday’s meeting in Washington between president Trump and Japan PM Abe will be a big focus as trade between the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 07, 2017

The dollar started the N.Y. session on a stronger footing, though squandered its gains through the remainder of the morning. The December trade deficit was slightly narrower than forecast, but had little impact on markets. Wall Street too started out strong, though fade by mid-session. EUR-USD bottomed at 1.0663 before printing 1.0700 highs, as USD-JPY… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Dollar Rises on March Hike Talk

OVERVIEW The US Dollar is back on the rise today after comments were made from a Fed member on a March rate hike. German industrial production posted its biggest monthly drop in nearly eight years in December. ECB board member, Francois Villeroy, echoed similar comments made by ECB president, Mario Draghi, that policymakers should refrain… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 07, 2017

The dollar rebound picked pace during the London AM session, with the buck near its highs heading into the New York interbank open, showing an 0.8% gain versus the euro, sterling, Canadian dollar, amongst other currencies, and a 0.6% advance in the case against the yen. Remarks from Philadelphia Fed president (and FOMC voter) Harker… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 07, 2017

The euro is underperforming heading into the London interbank open, showing a 0.5% decline versus the dollar, a 0.4% loss against the yen while trading 0.3% for the worse against the pound. The shared currency is also trading as the second weakest of the currencies we track on the week so far, with sterling being… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Feb 06, 2017

The dollar perked up some in morning N.Y. trade on Monday, though later pulled back to session lows against the yen and euro. USD-JPT based at 112.00 early, though found support at the level. later, as yields and stocks faded, the pairing tripped stops at the figure, resulting in a move to 111.66 lows. EUR-USD… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: French Politics Weigh on The Euro

OVERVIEW German factory orders soared 5.2% in December, the biggest monthly increase in around 2 in a half years as domestic and foreign demand strengthened. Australian retail sales fell unexpectedly in December as household spending remained soft. Wages in Japan fell in December for the first time in a year as a rise in the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Feb 06, 2017

The dollar has continued to trade buoyantly, and was near intraday highs versus the euro, yen, pound, Australian dollar, along with a number of other currencies, as of the early European PM session. EUR-USD was down by 0.4%, at 1.0742 bid, while USD-JPY was up 0.2%, at 112.44. The U.S. data calendar is pretty thin… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Feb 06, 2017

The dollar has been trading mixed in pre-London Asian trade, softer versus the yen but firming against the euro and Australian dollar, and holding steady relative to some other currencies. USD-JPY has settled to a relative steady trade after whipsawing last week amid a flow of key data and market-moving Trump tweets. The pair edged… Read more »

US Equity and Economic Review: The Market is Setting Up For Another Rise

     This week’s U.S. economic releases were uniformly bullish.  The strong year over year numbers contained in the personal consumption expenditures report indicate the U.S. consumer continues to spend at strong rates.  Because this represents 70% of U.S. growth, the economy should continue to grow at least modestly.  But the strong readings from the ISM… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Sterling Slides on Brexit Speculation

OVERVIEW Emerging market currencies are under pressure in the week where Donald Trump will officially become the 45th President of the USA. The IMF raised its economic growth forecasts for the U.S. economy this year by 0.1%, and next year by 0.4%, as it expects Trump’s policy plans to boost activity. In an interview with… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 16, 2017

The pound dove in response to weekend reports that the UK PM May will announce tomorrow that the government will be pursuing a so-called hard Brexit, leaving free access to the single market so as to take full control of the border. Cable hit a three-month low of 1.1987 in the early London AM, and… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 16, 2017

Sterling dove on weekend Brexit news, with a speech by PM May scheduled for Tuesday reported by several Sunday newspapers to be the venue where she will make clear that the government will take the UK out of free access of the EU’s single market. Confirmation of a “hard” Brexit in other words, though government… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: More Positive News, Edition

     There was no central, unifying theme this week.      News from the EU continued in a positive vein.  Industrial production rose a very strong 1.5% M/M and 3.2% Y/Y.  More importantly, the overall level shows an increase beyond its sideways range of the last year: The unemployment rate was stable at 9.8%.  And… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: A Rate Hike is a Lock, Edition

     We had a number of Fed speakers this week.  Philly Fed President Lacker stated, “The economy is displaying considerable strength.”  Regarding the employment situation, he approvingly cited the U3 and U6 levels, the historically low number of layoffs, and the high level of quits as indicators of labor market health.  He also believes inflation… Read more »

US Equity and Economic Review: The Post-Election Rally Fades

       This was a very light news week for the United States.  Most importantly, the Census’ retail sales figures increased .6% M/M and 4.1% Y/Y.  The comparable ex-auto numbers were 3.4%.  The following graph shows both numbers meaningfully increasing in the 2H16:      The BLS released the latest JOLTs data.  On a percentage… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: the "Trump election effect" fades edition

Commodity prices bottomed over one year ago. After briefly turning negative, metals have now surged higher since the election. Stock prices S&P 500 Down -0.1% w/w  Stock prices are positive, having made a string of new all-time highs beginning last summer. Regional Fed New Orders Indexes (*indicates report this week)(no reports this week) Empire State… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 13, 2017

FX trade was relatively quiet in N.Y. on Friday, though the dollar did perk up marginally, leaving the USD index at 101.30 into the close. Decent retail sales and in-line PPI data helped USD sentiment, though ahead of a long U.S. weekend, the rally petered out early. EUR-UD topped at 1.0675 before falling to 1.0597… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 13, 2017

The dollar traded softer, but has remained comfortably above the post-Trump press conference lows. USD-JPY has ebbed to the upper 114s after failing to sustain gains above 115.00, but remains over a big figure up on yesterday’s one-month low at 113.75. EUR-USD has firmed up to the mid 1.06s after logging an intraday low in… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 13, 2017

The dollar is trading softer into the London open, but remains comfortably above the post-Trump press conference lows. USD-JPY has ebbed to the upper 114s after failing to sustain gains above 115.00, but remains over a big figure up on yesterday’s one-month low at 113.75. EUR-USD has firmed up to around 1.0630 after logging an… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 12, 2017

The dollar remained under pressure at the N.Y. open on Thursday, though despite sharp early Wall Street losses, managed to put in a bit of a recovery through the session. Firmer export prices and softer import prices, along with a smaller than expected rise in jobless claims had little overall market impact. EUR-USD opened at… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Trump Talk Dents Dollar

OVERVIEW Markets are still reacting to Donald Trump’s press conference yesterday, where he failed to provide any detail on his plans to boost the economy. The German economy grew 1.9% last year, the fastest pace of expansion in 5 years as private spending rose alongside higher wages and government spending. Eurozone industrial output surged 1.5%… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 12, 2017

The Trump-deflation trade took the place of the Trumpflation trade. The dollar extended declines that were seen after Trump’s press conference yesterday amid a lowering in expectations for accelerated growth after the president elect failed to deliver details on fiscal or infrastructure plans while displaying a zeal for trade protectionism. The buck was off its… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 12, 2017

Dollar weakness has been the predominant theme so far today after president-elect Trump failed to deliver any fresh insights on his fiscal plans in yesterday’s press conference. This was a prompt for the dollar to further correct gains seen during last November-December’s Trumpflation trade. USD-JPY ebbed to one-month lows under 114.20, putting in some more… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 11, 2017

The dollar and Wall Street were bid up ahead of the Trump press conference, though volatility spiked up as the president-elect spoke, resulting in stocks and yields diving, and the dollar turning sharply lower as profit taking set in. Trump’s comments on curbing drug prices and military spending got the ball rolling, taking major equity… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Turkish Lira's Losses Accelerate

OVERVIEW Major FX is relatively steady while some emerging market currencies are significant under-performers as we await Donald Trump’s press conference at 11:00ET. UK industrial and manufacturing production both rose more than expected in November, adding to signs that growth momentum continued in the fourth quarter. Despite UK exports hitting an all-time high in November,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 11, 2017

The dollar picked up bids during the European AM as markets factored in the chance that U.S. president-elect Trump will reignite the “Trumpflation” rally. EUR-USD sank to the low 1.05s, posting a two-session low at 1.0513, while USD-JPY lifted to a two-session high at 116.46. The Australian and NZ dollars outperformed, AUD-USD clocking a one-month… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 11, 2017

Forex markets have been hunkering down ahead of the U.S. president-elect Trump’s press conference, his first since the election, scheduled later on Wednesday, looking for some clarity on the political and fiscal agendas of the incoming administration. USD-JPY has settled around 116.00, above last week’s one-month low at 115.07, and below the pre-Christmas trend high… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 10, 2017

The dollar meandered inside of recent ranges through the N.Y. session on Tuesday, with the unit mixed overall. Aside from wholesale data, which were ignored, the calendar was bare. Wall Street managed modest gains, while yields slipped some. President-elect Trump’s Wednesday press conference could be of some market interest, depending on how much detail The… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Turkish Lira Hits Fresh Record Lows

OVERVIEW Markets are generally subdued amid a lack of significant economic data as investors await the President-elect’s press conference tomorrow. Chinese consumer price inflation slowed to 2.1% in December, but producer prices surged at their fastest pace in 5 years as the price of coal and other raw material jump.  The British Retail Consortium reported… Read more »

Forecast for H1 of 2017: positive strength

At the outset of every year I lay out a forecast for each half.  My method of forecasting is pretty simple — in fact by now it is boilerplate.  I start each forecast each year the same way. My method is so simple, I call it the K.I.S.S. method. Even though the Index of Leading… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 10, 2017

The dollar reached the early European PM session with little substantial net change versus the other major currencies, having recouped most of losses seen during the Asian session. EUR-USD settled around 1.0580 after clawing out a 12-day peak at 1.0627 in Asia. USD-JPY recouped to the upper 115s after logging a two-session low of 115.19… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Jan 10, 2017

The dollar has traded steady-to-softer, losing moderately versus the euro and yen, but gaining versus a still-underperforming sterling. USD-JPY logged a two-session low of 115.19 as Tokyo markets returned to the fray following a long weekend in Japan. The conjecture in the market is that higher oil prices and recent weakness in the yen have… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Jan 09, 2017

The dollar maintained a softer tone through the N.Y. session on Monday, though traded ranges were relatively narrow overall. Yields dipped, while Wall Street was narrowly mixed, with the DJIA again unable to print the 20k mark. The economic calendar was empty through the morning session. EUR-USD bottomed at 1.0513 early in the session before… Read more »

Why John Taylor — a Leading Candidate to Replace Yellen — Shouldn't Lead the Federal Reserve

From Bloomberg: With just over a year remaining on Janet Yellen’s current term as chair of the Federal Reserve, comments from three of her potential successors at this this weekend’s annual American Economic Association meeting are noteworthy. Glenn Hubbard of Columbia University, along with Stanford University’s John Taylor and Kevin Warsh, are all seen by… Read more »