Month: December 2016

Treasury Market Technical Year in Review

     As with the stock market, it seems appropriate to look at the treasury market.  Let’s begin with a look at the weekly ETF charts of the IEFs (7-10 year treasury market) and TLTs (20+ year treasury market):     The IEFs (top chart) and the TLTs (bottom chart) both recently broke important, multi-year uptrends. … Read more »

2016 Equity Market Review and Initial 2017 Market Projections/Observations

     Since we’re not only at the end of the year but are also transitioning to a new administration, this is the perfect time to not only look at the market’s post-recession history but also attempt to find sectors that will outperform the market in 2017.  Let’s get started with the following chart that shows… Read more »

Scoring my 2016 forecast: GOAL!

At the end of every year, I take a look back to see how well my forecast for both the first and second halves of the year turned out.  My methods are pretty transparent, and grading myself is a learning exercise when I miss things. I’m giving myself a little pat on the back this… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Dec 30, 2016

Overnight dollar weakness continued into the last N.Y. session of the year, leaving EUR-USD over 1.0550, and USD-JPY near 116.75. Cable managed seven-session highs near 1.2390, while USD-CAD posted six-session lows of 1.3426. The last data release of the year, the Chicago PMI, was weaker than expected, and dented the dollar slightly. Treasury yields moved… Read more »

International Summation for 2016 and Country-Level Thoughts for 2017

     Each paragraph below focuses on the following economic players: the US, the UK, EU, Canada, Japan, Australia and China.       The U.S. is in the strongest economic position when compared to its developed world counterparts.  3Q GDP was over 3%.  While 4Q projections are lower, they’re still higher than most other countries.  The… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Dec 29, 2016

The dollar came under pressure in N.Y. on Thursday, the last full trading day of the year, as positions were pared, year-end repatriation flows were finished up, and as yields dipped lower. EUR-USD climbed back over 1.0490 from lows near 1.0445, as USD-JPY slipped into 116.25, as Wall Street traded lower. USD-CAD eased into the… Read more »

Housing at year end 2016

<div style=”color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: UICTFontTextStyleBody; font-size: 17px; line-height: normal;”>Let’s take a look at the very important leading sector of housing at the end of 2016.<br /><br />As per usual, my polestar is that housing first and foremost reacts to interest rates. &nbsp;Secondarily, housing responds to demographics. While housing does respond to price levels,… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Dec 29, 2016

EUR-USD has settled back in the 1.04s after foraying to the mid 1.03s yesterday. USD-JPY has traded below its 20-day moving average for the first time since Nov-9 today, making a low at 116.33. The said moving average is presently sitting at 116.47, which now reverts as a resistance. Sterling remains on weak, with GBP-JPY… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Dec 28, 2016

Another quiet day in N.Y. FX trade, though EUR-USD did ease to one-week lows of 1.0372, within range of the 13-year low posted last week. USD-JPY came off its 117.79 to print a 117.34 lows, with losses coming on the heels of a moderate Wall Street sell-off. USD-CAD touched levels last seen in February, peaking… Read more »

Potential Risks to the U.S. Economy in 2017

     Overall, the US economy is in strong shape.  Unemployment is low, growth is positive (but moderate) and inflation is under control.  But this expansion is also getting old; the possibility of a negative event hurting growth is increasing.  Looking at the economic landscape, these are the risks that I think could potentially derail the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Dec 28, 2016

Following some modest weakness in Asian dealings, the dollar recovered some ground in morning Europe trade, bringing the unit back to near the top of its recent ranges. The USD index currently stands near 103.25, slightly above Tuesday’s N.Y. closing levels. EUR-USD is back under 1.0420 after topping at 1.0479, as USD-JPY is on intra… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Dec 27, 2016

The U.S. returned from Christmas break on Tuesday, though the FX market felt like it was still on holiday. Light volumes and narrow ranges were the rule through the session, and more of the same is likely in the cards for the remainder of the week. A 15-year high consumer confidence outcome had little impact… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Dec 27, 2016

FX trade was very quiet overnight, with London remaining on Christmas break, and a light calendar and year-end conditions keeping thinly staffed desks sidelined. EUR-USD idled in familiar territory near 1.0450, while USD-JPY was steady in the low 117s. Firmed oil prices failed to help the CAD, which remained over 1.3500, following weak Canada GDP… Read more »

New rules aimed at limiting US meat processing market power

The US Department of Agriculture’s Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration (GIPSA) has announced an update in regulations that ‘protects the rights of farmers’, according to the agency. The Farmer Fair Practices Rules falls under the US’s Packers and Stockyards Act and seeks to level the playing field for farmers against meat packers. In his… Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: Will Inflation Be the Story of 2017?

     In a remarkable policy about-face, for the last several years central banks have been concerned with staving off the effects of deflation.  Japan by far has suffered the most from falling prices, leading the Bank of Japan to push the policy envelope like no bank before.  But the Bank of England, the ECB… Read more »

US Equity and Economic Review: a Year End Spate of Good News

     On Thursday, the Conference Board released the monthly LEIs and CEIs.  Despite 7/10 components increasing, the LEIs were unchanged.  A sharp drop in building permits was the primary reason.  However, the 6-month, rolling rate of change was 1%, which is the third consecutive month of readings around the 1% level.  The CEIs rose… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: Ending the Year on Mostly Positive News

     This was a light week for economic news.  It’s highly likely that with the first major end-of-the-year holiday on Sunday, statistics agencies deliberately planned a light released schedule.       The primary news from Australia was Monday’s release of the latest meeting minutes.  The economy is growing a bit below trend, but growth is… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: are trade war fears showing up in the data? edition

Commodity prices bottomed about one year ago. After briefly turning negative, metals have now surged higher since the election. Stock prices S&P 500 Up +0.3% w/w  Stock prices became a positive having made new all-time highs in summer, and more new highs since.. Regional Fed New Orders Indexes (*indicates report this week) Empire State up… Read more »

Red meat processors feature prominently in Top 100 food and beverage companies

IT’S no surprise that red meat processors and related supply chain companies have featured prominently in a list of the Top 100 Australian food and beverage companies compiled this week by business analysts IBISWorld and Food & Drink Business Magazine. Companies with strong connections to the red meat supply chain fill no less than 19… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Pound Weakens Despite Strong Economy

OVERVIEW German consumer confidence rose in line with expectations to 9.9. German consumers have become more upbeat about their future income due to the strong labour market and rising wages.  U.S. personal consumption and income were both weaker than expected, rising 0.2% and 0% respectively last month, which points to slower growth in the fourth… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Dec 23, 2016

Narrow ranges have been prevailing in very subdued trade. Several Asian centres were closed either for a half or full day, including Japanese markets, which were closed for the Emperor’s Birthday. Many interbank market participants will be unofficially be calling it a half day in London today, too, and many centres will be down to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Dec 23, 2016

Narrow ranges have been prevailing in very subdued trade. Several Asian centres were closed either for a half or full day, including Japanese markets, which were closed for the Emperor’s Birthday. Many interbank market participants in London today won’t make back from the pub at lunchtime either, and many centres will be down to skeletal… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Dec 22, 2016

The deluge of U.S. data seen on Thursday ultimately had little impact on the markets, as Wall Street ended with modest losses, as Treasury yields moved marginally higher. The dollar perked up some, though for the most part, enthusiasm waned into the Christmas weekend, and the last week of the year. EUR-USD climbed to 1.0499… Read more »

MDH joins Foodbank charity beef supply chain

IN a collaboration which stretches from cattle in the paddock to sausages on the plate, more essential protein is on the menu for Australians in need thanks to a new partnership between Foodbank and a Queensland family-owned beef cattle enterprise MDH Pty Ltd. The McDonald family’s MDH has agreed to donate one tonne of beef… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: US Economy Grows Faster Than Expected

OVERVIEW US durable goods orders fell 4.6% in November which was in line with forecasts and reversed an identical rise in October. Core capital goods however, increased more than expected.  UK consumer confidence rose for the first time in three months in December to -7, though consumers are concerned by the risk of higher inflation… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Dec 22, 2016

Euro strength has been the main show in town today, with the shared currency showing a 0.4% gain versus both the dollar and yen going into the New York open. The euro was also up 0.6% versus sterling, and 0.7% against the Canadian dollar. The U.S. dollar was mixed, down versus the euro, flat against… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Dec 22, 2016

The dollar has traded mixed in pre-London Asian trading, softer versus the euro, steady against the yen, while gaining some ground versus sterling and the Canadian dollar. EUR-USD logged a three-session high at 1.0456, rising for a second day after posting a 14-year low at 1.0352 on Tuesday. The euro also posted modest gains versus… Read more »

Genetics consortium to invest $16m in new research

AN UNPRECEDENTED level of investment in livestock genetics will drive the advancement of genetic gain in Australia with $16 million of new projects being approved by the MLA board following the first round of project applications through the new National Livestock Genetics Consortium. The Meat & Livestock Australia board last week endorsed projects recommended by… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Dec 21, 2016

A quiet Wednesday session in N.Y. on Wednesday saw the dollar mixed overall. EUR-USD maintained a narrow trading band in the low 1.04s, as USD-JPY bounced from the low 117s. USD-CAD rallied over 1.3425 on softer oil prices, and ahead of CPI and retail sales data on Thursday. Cable meanwhile lost some early shine, falling… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Swedish Krone Jumps After Riksbank Meeting

OVERVIEW Markets are generally quiet amid a lack of key data and as we edge towards the holidays. The Dollar pulled back from the 14-year high reached yesterday. UK government borrowing came in marginally above expectations at £12.6bn for last month – in line with new, less ambitious deficit reduction goals set out last month…. Read more »

Interest rate spike says slowdown not downturn — for now

[Note:  I am having a problem inserting graphs.  I will update as soon as I am able.] [UPDATE: Until XE fixes the problem, you can see the graphs here: http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2016/12/the-post-election-interest-rate-spik… ] [UPDATE 2: Problem is resolved.] The biggest economic story since the US Presidential election has been the backup in long term interest rates.  Post-Brexit… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Dec 21, 2016

The dollar has traded softer, showing a 0.2% decline versus the euro and a 0.3% drop against the yen just ahead of the New York interbank open. EUR-USD recouped above 1.0400, putting in some distance from the 14-year low seen yesterday at 1.0352. USD-JPY settled back in the mid 117s after failing to sustain gains… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Dec 21, 2016

The dollar has traded moderately softer, showing a 0.2% decline versus the euro and a 0.3% drop against the yen as the London interbank market joined the fray. The greenback is also showing fractional losses versus the dollar bloc currencies. EUR-USD has recouped above 1.0400, putting in some distance from the 14-year low seen yesterday… Read more »

Live exporters ‘quietly optimistic’ for 2017 after year of challenges

Simon Westaway The Australian Livestock Exporters’ Council says the trade is quietly optimistic about the coming 12 months, following several challenges in 2016. In an end of year statement released on Tuesday, ALEC chief executive officer Simon Westaway said market consolidation and diversification would continue to be a high priority for livestock exporters in 2017…. Read more »

Call for SAMRC Chair nominations

Stakeholders in the grassfed beef and sheepmeat sectors with a keen interest in the future of levy-payer funded research and development are being encouraged to apply for the position of Chair of the Southern Australian Meat Research Council (SAMRC). SAMRC was revitalised in mid-2015 to gather feedback on the research, development and adoption (RD&A) needs… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Dec 20, 2016

The dollar maintained a softer footing through the N.Y. session on Tuesday, giving back gains posted in London, though remaining inside of recent ranges. There was no data to move the market, though Wall Street advanced, with the DJIA approaching the 20,000 mark, as yields edged higher. EUR-USD opened near 1.0355, and later made its… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Yen Weakens After BoJ Meeting

OVERVIEW Janet Yellen maintained her positive view of the economy, saying that the U.S. labor market had improved to its strongest in over a decade and wage growth is picking up. The Euro weakened despite a pickup in German producer prices and a healthy Eurozone current account surplus. German borrowing costs hit fresh record lows…. Read more »

Tri-Solfen pain relief approved for calves

The Australian Pesticide and Veterinary Medicine Authority (APVMA) has extended the approved use of Tri-Solfen anaesthetic and antiseptic topical application to include the alleviation of pain in calves. Tri-Solfen is already approved by the APVMA, and is currently used to provide pain relief to more than 8 million lambs per year during husbandry procedures such… Read more »

Call for SAMRC Chair nominations

Stakeholders in the grassfed beef and sheepmeat sectors with a keen interest in the future of levy-payer funded research and development are being encouraged to apply for the position of Chair of the Southern Australian Meat Research Council (SAMRC). SAMRC was revitalised in mid-2015 to gather feedback on the research, development and adoption (RD&A) needs… Read more »

Hobart butcher to back-pay apprentice almost $20k

An adult apprentice butcher in Hobart who was paid less than $10 per hour will be back-paid nearly $20,000 by his former employer, following intervention by the Fair Work Ombudsman. The worker was underpaid while working at Lindisfarne Village Gourmet Meats, a retail butcher located at Lindisfarne, Hobart, between March, 2015 and April this year…. Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Dec 20, 2016

USD-JPY and yen crossers were at the fulcrum of activity in thinning year-end markets as the yen came under pressure into and after the BoJ’s announcement of unchanged policy, with bank governor Kuroda ruling out a reduction in ETF purchases during his post-meeting press conference. There had been some speculation that the BoJ might have… Read more »

Haverick Meats bounces back after fire, in time for Christmas rush

SIX months after fire extensively damaged the Haverick Meats production facility at Banksmeadow, near Sydney airport, the facility has re-opened in plenty of time for the Christmas rush. Peter Andrews outside the freshly rebuilt Banksmeadow facility, ravaged by fire in late May. A supplier of quality meat to the foodservice and retail industry for three… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Dec 20, 2016

The main theme has been yen weakness today in pre-London open trade in Asia. USD-JPY is off its high at 117.95, but still showing a 0.5% advance at 1117.76 bid. EUR-JPY is up by 0.4%, while the biggest mover has been AUD-JPY, with a 0.7% gain. The yen had been briefly bid following yesterday’s news… Read more »

NVLX Wodonga sale 20 Dec 2016: Bidding dearer as 2016 draws to close

It was a smaller yarding for the last sale of the year at NVLX Wodonga with agents penning just on 500 cattle. Bidding for young cattle was generally dearer ending the run of softer prices. Vealers were again a highlight with prices hitting 372.6c/kg. The general run of vealers sold from 312c-361c/kg. The approaching holiday… Read more »

ACCC acknowledges GrainCorp’s removal of outload fee surcharge

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission announced on Tuesday it has ended its investigation into a surcharge formerly imposed by GrainCorp upon customers for outloading grain delivered by rail from its upcountry storage and handling facilities to rival port terminals. The ACCC had been investigating whether the imposition of the surcharge increased the cost of… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Dec 19, 2016

USD-JPY has recouped toward 117.00 after clocking to a pullback low of 116.82, which surpassed the Tokyo session low at 116.97 and marked a new three-session nadir. EUR-USD traded back to near net unchanged levels after logging a low at 1.0411, which made this an outside day, whereby the day’s low and high exceed the… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Sterling Under Pressure

OVERVIEW Sterling is under pressure after the Financial Times reported yesterday that EU Brexit negotiators are insisting Britain agrees to its European divorce settlement before Brussels offers any transitional deal.  Germany’s IFO business climate index rose to its highest level since February 2014 in December, thanks to strong domestic demand and a weaker Euro that… Read more »

Wellard gains ESCAS approval for China

A Wellard ship loading in Fremantle. In a new statement to the ASX, live exporter Wellard Limited has announced it has received its first ESCAS (Exporter Supply Chain Assurance System) approval in China from the Australian Department of Agriculture and Water Resources (DAWR). In the same statement it has also announced that it has begun… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Dec 19, 2016

The dollar traded softer against the yen, recovered from intraday losses versus the euro and posted gains against the Canadian and Australian dollars, all in thin year-end conditions. USD-JPY briefly pierced below 117.00, leaving a four-session low of 116.97 before recouping to around the 117.50 mark, still leaving the dollar with about a 0.4% decline… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Dec 19, 2016

The dollar has traded steady-to-softer in early-week trade. USD-JPY has been the biggest mover, registering a 0.7% decline with the pair having drifted to the lower 117.0s after closing on Friday in the upper 117s. Japanese data today were overlooked by markets, although both imports and exports declined less than expected and by the least… Read more »

Merry Xmas from the Sheep Central, Beef Central and Grain Central team

THE Sheep Central, Beef Central and Grain Central teams will be taking a short break from publishing our regular free news emails over the Christmas/New Year period. However, important news content will continue to be uploaded on all of our websites as it happens over coming weeks. Our Sheep Central emails will re-commence from Monday, January… Read more »

Large shipment of breeders departs Darwin for Indonesia

The Greyman Express loading in Darwin. A large shipment of heifers, believed to be the biggest single delivery of breeding cattle exported from Australia to Indonesia, will depart Darwin for Surabaya this week. The 3741 breeding cattle are being exported by Frontier International aboard the Greyman Express, which was launched in China last year. Most… Read more »

Cattle Council of Australia appoints new CEO

Cattle Council of Australia has this morning confirmed the appointment of a new CEO to replace Jed Matz who is stepping down after 10 years with the peak grassfed cattle producer representative body. Duncan Bremner Duncan Bremner will take up the position early in the New Year. Mr Bremner brings to the role a broad… Read more »

Wagga sale 19 Dec 2016: Rates rise in final sale of 2016

The last sale before the Christmas holiday break saw numbers more than halve, with Wagga agents offering 1,470. The approaching abattoir shut downs for the annual Christmas break placed pressure on the market. Young cattle destined for domestic and export abattoirs experienced a rate rise 7-20c/kg Export cattle did show notable price results as the… Read more »

US Equity and Economic Review: Good Economic News, Slight Sell-Off Edition

     This week saw the release of two important coincidental indicators: retail sales and industrial production.  The former increased .1%, while the core number (retail sales ex-autos) increased .2%.  Despite the small monthly increase, the Y/Y numbers for both are slightly below 4% — a positive sign: Industrial production fell 4%, continuing a downward trend… Read more »

International Economic Week in Review: Will Inflation Be the Story of 2017?

     Recent English statistics show an economy that is resilient in the fact of Brexit.  But the BOE is projecting slower growth and rising price pressures in 2017, potentially placing them in a medium-term policy bind.  On Wednesday, the Bank of England maintained rates at .25%, while also continuing their current pace of asset purchases. … Read more »

US Bond Market Week in Review: To No One's Surprise, the Fed Raises Rates

     To no one’s surprise, the Fed raised rates 25 basis points on Wednesday.  The release contained the following assessment of the economy: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace… Read more »

Weekly Indicators: short term indicators falter edition

Commodity prices bottomed about one year ago. After briefly turning negative, metals have now surged higher since the election. Stock prices S&P 500 Down -0.1% w/w Stock prices became a positive having made new all-time highs in summer, and made more new highs one week ago. Regional Fed New Orders Indexes (*indicates report this week)… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Dec 16, 2016

The dollar lost some altitude in N.Y. Friday trade, with pre-weekend profit taking setting in ahead of the holiday period, which kicks in in earnest next week. EUR-USD topped near 1.0475, after finding support into the 1.0400 level. USD-JPY meanwhile, was spooked by news that China seized a U.S. naval drone in the South China… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Euro Recovers Despite Record Low Borrowing Costs

OVERVIEW Eurozone inflation was confirmed at 0.6% year-on-year last month, the fastest pace of price increases since April 2014. US housing starts tumbled 18.7% last month, dropping from a nine-year high in October as construction activity declined.  Russia’s central bank left interest rates unchanged at 10% as expected, and said it will consider cutting rates… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Dec 16, 2016

The Fed-induced dollar rally came to a pause and correction. EUR-USD shot to a peak of 1.0472 peak, about 60s up on the day, and up on yesterday’s near 14-year low at 1.0366, though still some way short of yesterday’s 1.0514 peak. USD-JPY dipped to a 117.92 low, which is 74 pips below yesterday’s 10-month… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Dec 16, 2016

EUR-USD is firmer, USD-JPY is softer today with the post-Fed hike rally having come to a pause. Dollar dips have remained shallow, however. The highest EUR-USD print so far having been 1.0448, some 66 pips short of yesterday’s high, while the lowest USD-JPY print so far being 117.97, which is 60 pips above yesterday’s low…. Read more »

Picking the market 12 months out: Our 2016 EYCI reader comp winner revealed

THE Eastern Young Cattle Indicator yesterday closed for 2016 at 634.5c.kg, almost 50c/kg higher than where it closed a year before. It’s fair to say that not many of us saw that coming 12 months ago, judging by the results of our 2016 EYCI reader competition. Back in January we asked Beef Central readers to… Read more »

Merry Xmas from the Beef Central, Sheep Central and Grain Central team

THE Beef Central, Sheep Central and Grain Central teams will be taking a short break from publishing our free daily news emails over the Christmas/New Year period. However, important news content will continue to be uploaded on all of our websites as it happens over coming weeks. Our daily Beef Central and Grain Central news… Read more »

MSA grading penetration continues to grow, despite smaller kills

THE Meat Standards eating quality assurance program has continued to grow in 2015-16, with more than 3.1 million cattle presented for MSA grading during the last financial year. While the outright number of cattle graded is down a little on the previous financial year due to the dramatic decline in beef kills seen during the… Read more »

Exporter says Saudi live export trade opportunity at risk

AUSTRALIA could be permanently cut off from potentially its biggest market for live sheep – Saudi Arabia — if it did not resolve access issues between the two countries, according to a Western Australian exporter. Emanuel Exports managing director Graham Daws also believes re-establishing the Saudi live export trade is important to the signing of… Read more »

Recruitment: Eight things exceptional bosses regularly tell their staff

Latest listings on Jobs Central recruitment page: Communications and Engagement Officer (Southern Gulf NRM) Rangelands Officer (Southern Gulf NRM) Livestock Procurement (Stanbroke) General Manager, QLD region (CPC) Stock Crew (Rangers Valley) 2017 Station positions – Tanbar (Paraway Pastoral Co) Commercial analyst (Lawson Grains) Senior Biosecurity Officer (NSW Local Land Services) Organic beef sales & production… Read more »

Wool production forecast to increase next year

More wool to be shorn next year MORE sheep producers retaining ewes is underpinning a predicted wool production increase in all states except Victoria and Tasmania next year. And Queensland is forecast to have the biggest clip increase of 15 percent in 2016-17, the  Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee said today. The committee has forecast… Read more »

Recruitment: Eight things exceptional bosses regularly tell their staff

Latest listings on Jobs Central recruitment page: Communications and Engagement Officer (Southern Gulf NRM) Rangelands Officer (Southern Gulf NRM) Livestock Procurement (Stanbroke) General Manager, QLD region (CPC) Stock Crew (Rangers Valley) 2017 Station positions – Tanbar (Paraway Pastoral Co) Commercial analyst (Lawson Grains) Senior Biosecurity Officer (NSW Local Land Services) Organic beef sales & production… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Dec 15, 2016

The dollar advanced further in N.Y. trade on Tuesday, helped by a rebound on Wall Street, amid a series of strong U.S. data. The Philly Fed and Empire State indices were much improved, helping the DXY to new trend highs of 103.55. EUR-USD slumped to 1.0367 into the London close, though was later able to… Read more »

Omethoate insecticide banned for food crops and pastures

THE Australian Pesticides and Veterinary Medicines Authority (APVMA) has banned the use of the insecticide, omethoate, on grain legumes, cereals, pastures, horticultural crops and food producing plants, including in the home garden. The product can still be used for insect control on flowers, ornamentals and also as a barrier spray for controlling red-legged earth mite—provided… Read more »

Merry Xmas from the Grain Central, Beef Central and Sheep Central team

THE Beef Central, Sheep Central and Grain Central teams will be taking a short break from publishing our free daily news emails over the Christmas/New Year period. However, important news content will continue to be uploaded on all of our websites as it happens over coming weeks. Our daily Beef Central and Grain Central news… Read more »

Late cycle inflation: Fed rate hike, higher YoY CPI

Last week I wrote that I expected typical late cycle inflation to be the story of 2017.  Yesterday’s .25% rate hike by the Fed and this morning’s CPI reading for November play into that scenario. Yesterday’s rate hike drove yields on the 10 year Treasury to 2.57% intraday, and this morning they went as high… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Dollar Surges After Fed Hike

OVERVIEW The Federal Reserve raised rates as expected yesterday to 0.75% which Janet Yellen called a “very modest adjustment” driven by strong jobs gains and continued pick-up in inflation. The market was surprised by the Fed raising their forecast to three rate hikes in 2017. The increase is partly due to the incoming Trump administration’s… Read more »

Weekly maps show where the rain fell in 2016

This collection of weekly rainfall maps, produced by the Bureau of Meteorology and published weekly on Beef Central, offers an easy way to review where and when the rain fell across Australia during 2016. To scroll from December backwards, click on the arrow at the right of the map; to progress from January forward, click on… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Dec 15, 2016

EUR-USD dove into near 14-year low terrain under 1.0440, having taken out yesterday’s post-Fed low and the March 2015 low at 1.0556. The Fed upped rates by 25 bp yesterday, as expected, but its dot plot signal of three more rate hikes in 2017 — one more than signalled in September — is driving dollar… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Dec 15, 2016

The dollar rallied following the Fed’s 25 bp rate hike and signal of three more rate hikes in 2017, more than had been anticipated. USD-JPY led the way, rallying to a 10-month high of 117.86. ). The pairing had been trading around 115.25 ahead of the Fed’s announcement. The Federal Reserve’s policy contrasts to the… Read more »

Queensland sheep industry gets $5m cluster fencing boost

An electrified wild dog exclusion fence. QUEENSLAND’S recovering sheep industry has received a $5 million funding boost to continue cluster fencing developments. Minister for Agriculture and Fisheries and Minister for Rural Economic Development, Bill Byrne said the additional $5 million was a great Christmas boost for the successful applicants. “The successful applicants are the Remote… Read more »

US beef imports to Australia loom as prospect during back half of 2017

AFTER a 15-year absence, fresh and frozen beef from the United States could start appearing again on Australian retail shelves as soon as in the second half of next year. The prospect follows an important milestone reached yesterday in the Federal Government’s beef Import Risk Assessment process. A draft report released by the Department of… Read more »

Teys Australia crowned as Woolworths’ Supplier of the Year

Woolowrths Steve Donohue, left, and Pat McEntee, second from right, with Teys personnel at last night’s Woolies awards, from left, Rata Shuttleworth, Paul Irvine, Max Schob and Andrew McPherson RED meat and supply chain solutions provider Teys Australia has been crowned as Woolworths’ 2016 Overall Supplier of the Year. While Woolworths issues an annual red… Read more »

Comment: How likely are significant imports of US beef to Australia next year?

IN WHAT may prove to be an awkward coincidence for regulators, the beef import risk assessment report released yesterday (see today’s separate story) has been filed the same week that the fisheries industry battles an outbreak of disease in wild-caught and farmed prawns in Queensland. The white spot disease, previously unseen in Australia, is widely… Read more »

Seasonal climate outlook Jan-Mar 2017

[embedded content] Click on images to view in larger format. January to March rainfall is likely to be below average in parts of eastern Australia and above average in northwest and central WA, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s latest Seasonal Climate Outlook statement. The January outlook shows a drier month in the east, while… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Dec 14, 2016

FX trade was quiet ahead of the FOMC announcement, with major pairings meandering inside of relatively narrow trading ranged. The dollar surged higher following the as-expected 25 basis point Fed rate hike. The driver was Fed’s expectations for three more hikes in 2017, which may have been on the high side of market expectations. Wall… Read more »

GrainCorp go-ahead for Cunningar upgrade

GRAINCORP announced today it had secured development approval (DA) to proceed with the $8.1 million upgrade of its grain receival and train loading facility at Cunningar in southern NSW. The multi-million-dollar upgrade was previously announced in December 2015 as part of the Australian Government’s National Stronger Regions Fund (NSRF) and is expected to commence in… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Dollar Dips Ahead of Expected Rate Hike

OVERVIEW UK unemployment rate remained at an 11-year low of 4.8% in October, though employment fell for the first time in over a year. US retail sales rose just 0.1% in November against expectations of a 0.3% growth after October’s increase was revised down to 0.6%. Eurozone industrial output dipped in October for the second… Read more »

Seasonal climate outlook Jan-Mar 2017

[embedded content] Click on images to view in larger format. January to March rainfall is likely to be below average in parts of eastern Australia and above average in northwest and central WA, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s latest Seasonal Climate Outlook statement. The January outlook shows a drier month in the east, while… Read more »

Time for Governments to take Q Fever seriously: Rural groups

Organisations from across agricultural, processing, veterinary and public health industries are calling for governments to protect residents from the risk of Q fever infection. NSW Farmers’ Association president Derek Schoen said it is time for State and Federal Governments to stand up for rural health and take Q fever seriously. “Rural and regional ministers needed to… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: North America – Dec 14, 2016

The major dollar pairing saw some chop during the European AM session as markets hunkered down ahead of the Fed announcement. EUR-USD settled around 1.0630-40. The euro had dipped to a 1.0612 low after popping to a 1.0664 peak during a sell-off in the dollar in the early London session. Sub-forecast Eurozone production data had… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Europe – Dec 14, 2016

Narrow ranges have been the order of the day so far in currency markets as markets hunker down into the Fed’s policy announcement and guidance, which will come with updated economic forecasts from the central bank. EUR-USD drifted about 25 pips, back to around 1.0650, but has remained below yesterday’s six-day peak at 1.0667. USD-JPY… Read more »

Weekly Property Review – The year that was in northern Australia

THE Northern Australian property market has ridden on the back of strong cattle and beef prices during 2016, and an unusually wet start to spring in many parts of Queensland. The Northern Territory and Queensland are now patiently awaiting a decent wet season to continue what has been a strong start to the grass-growing season…. Read more »

Northern Australia’s defining property sales in 2016

IN OUR last weekly property report for 2016, we present a state-by-state snapshot of the defining property sales across northern Australia, as reported over the past 12 months – and our pick as Grazing Property Sale Transaction of the Year. As noted last week in our corresponding southern Australian region report, this is not a… Read more »

Go/no go decision on DEXA objective carcase measurement investment by March

THE red meat industry will determine by the end of March next year whether it proceeds with MLA’s bold plan to roll-out of DEXA objective carcase measurement technology across the processing industry, and how it goes about funding the $150 million cost of installation. More details about the approval process and how the project might… Read more »

NSW and SA shearers escape potential court action, but wool industry warned

ANIMAL cruelty allegations against South Australian and New South Wales shearers implicated in a PETA video expose three years ago are unlikely to be tested in court. However, PETA Australia’s associate director of campaigns Ashley Fruno has warned the wool industry should consider itself on notice and wise to conduct shearing as if always under… Read more »

Casual positions go as Landmark buys Crawford Dowling business

NATIONAL agribusiness company Landmark will boost its sheep and cattle sales network with the acquisition of Victoria’s Crawford Dowling Pty Ltd from January 1 next year. The acquisition announced today will mean the Crawford Dowling business – including branches at Ballarat, Skipton will be merged into Landmark’s operations, but a Lismore merchandise will close and… Read more »

Summer forecast adds pressure to cattle price outlook

A hot, dry summer, as forecast by the Bureau of Meteorology, could accelerate an easing of cattle prices in 2017, NAB has cautioned in its latest beef cattle market outlook report. Producers have enjoyed record prices this year, but pressure from global fundamentals and a likely softening of re-stocker demand in response to drier conditions… Read more »

Defence land buy-up could see 100,000 cattle lost to Qld beef industry

An expansion of military training areas in Central and North Queensland could see more than a hundred thousand head of cattle lost to the state’s beef industry and farming families that have managed properties for generations forced off their land, AgForce has warned. AgForce General President Grant Maudsley said meetings held in Central Queensland last… Read more »

Tax system in desperate need of reform: Farm groups

THE National Farmers Federation (NFF) says Australia’s tax system is in desperate need of reform and is calling for sensible, forward-thinking changes to allow farm businesses to operate to their potential. The call comes on the back of a new report looking at the impact taxation policy has on Australian agriculture. The report titled ‘Tax… Read more »

XE Market Analysis: Asia – Dec 13, 2016

The dollar largely moved sideways through the N.Y. session Tuesday, as traders sat on their hands ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC announcement, where a 25 basis point rate hike is universally expected. Aside from slightly weaker import and export prices, there was no data on tap to move markets. This said, Wall Street soared to record… Read more »

2016 Economic Year in Review and 2017 Basic Economic Projection

     This is the first of three year-end articles.  This piece will focus on the last 12 months of economic growth along with the upcoming projections of the LEIs and CEIs offered by the Conference Board.  The conclusion is that the next 6-12 months are looking fairly positive.  In the next post, I’ll analyze… Read more »